Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 10, 2019

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DAY 41 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.51°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.722 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 224 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.14 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 5 in SWE DAY: 52 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.40 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.66 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 66.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-11 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	41	121	43.50992	36.10994	39.80993	5.1443466666667	0.13999999999999	0.68999999999999	0.15	0.83999999999999	F	F	11.50992	223.50992	52	322.4040159654	1.6585580248516	0.72219313326506	88	4	5	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	35.76	35.76	35.76	4.9794453333333	0.0109	0.5609	0.15	0.7109	F	F	3.76	210.76	52	322.28860047229	1.6048184676083	0.40000105600741	88	2	5	2	3	4	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-11-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.34	40.71	44.525	5.105544	0.0186	0.5686	0.15	0.7186	F	F	16.34	228.34	52	322.37686208105	1.6459092539367	0.86753824172417	88	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.24	37.95	43.095	4.92252	0.0125	0.5625	0.15	0.7125	F	F	16.24	228.24	52	322.24874684334	1.5862759013113	0.8651913092702	88	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	44.91	37.58	41.245	5.3308763333333	0.0243	0.5743	0.15	0.7243	F	F	12.91	224.91	52	322.53451101178	1.7193915914359	0.77084587635558	88	4	5	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	47.73	38.06	42.895	5.478736	0.0385	0.0485	0.15	0.1985	F	F	15.73	221.73	52	322.63790883585	1.7676479261037	0.85278081482972	88	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.58	39.64	44.11	6.5116453333333	0.0313	0.1313	0.15	0.2813	F	F	16.58	228.58	52	323.35913710763	2.1056000161376	0.87305584954383	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	49.14	41.34	45.24	6.4473573333333	0.0311	0.1311	0.15	0.2811	F	F	17.14	229.14	52	323.31430325243	2.0845228440461	0.88530403947017	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	49.44	41.67	45.555	5.6663893333333	0.0215	0.1215	0.15	0.2715	F	F	17.44	229.44	52	322.76907834941	1.8289352626889	0.89150943714686	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	49.1	42.41	45.755	5.4085813333333	0.0169	0.2769	0.15	0.4269	F	F	17.1	230.1	52	322.58885472799	1.7447480580232	0.88445800433743	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	49.37	42.67	46.02	5.1023361666667	0.0239	0.2639	0.15	0.4139	F	F	17.37	229.37	52	322.37461713785	1.6448636682378	0.8900835043709	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	49.86	42.48	46.17	4.0212133333333	0.0268	0.3268	0.15	0.4768	F	F	17.86	204.86	52	321.61697031743	1.2932904492667	0.89978697243693	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.97	41.84	45.405	5.0826586666667	0.0676	0.3676	0.15	0.5176	F	F	16.97	226.97	52	322.36084580087	1.6384501467038	0.88167789495038	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.55	41.52	45.035	4.96682	0.068	0.348	0.15	0.498	F	F	16.55	229.55	52	322.27976192867	1.6007055671426	0.87237500653948	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.23	41.38	44.805	3.8989613333333	0.0751	0.3951	0.15	0.5451	F	F	16.23	229.23	52	321.53116556759	1.2536375820096	0.8649550611322	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.17	40.49	44.33	3.63432	0.1244	0.4444	0.15	0.5944	F	F	16.17	228.17	52	321.34533102986	1.1678717634685	0.86353162828831	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.35	40.38	44.365	3.3361220833333	0.1929	0.5129	0.15	0.6629	F	F	16.35	223.35	52	321.13578289525	1.0713481770654	0.86777138145779	88	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.84	42.7	45.77	1.593084	0.2424	0.6024	0.15	0.7524	F	F	16.84	213.84	52	319.90774359257	0.50963990779343	0.87885097230711	88	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	46.39	43.45	44.92	2.5421893333333	0.3605	0.7005	0.15	0.8505	F	F	14.39	225.39	52	320.57710004067	0.81496768423432	0.81663792033579	88	4	5	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.96	41.31	45.135	2.4533013333333	0.6415	0.8315	0.15	0.9815	F	F	16.96	228.96	52	320.51448024998	0.78631860174992	0.88146210418135	88	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.61	40.9	44.755	1.1203093333333	0.6797	0.8197	0.15	0.9697	F	F	16.61	228.61	52	319.57371672627	0.35802141753646	0.87373416785624	88	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	44.95	41.51	43.23	1.288792	0.4474	0.5774	0.15	0.7274	F	F	12.95	219.95	52	319.69279985608	0.41201752291212	0.77216207051511	88	4	5	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	52.42	39.88	46.15	1.3756341666667	0.0885	0.1985	0.15	0.3485	F	F	20.42	228.42	52	319.75415978322	0.43986474713159	0.94054451176169	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-07 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	41	121	52.45	39.82	46.135	0.577196	0.0981	0.2281	0.15	0.3781	F	F	20.45	218.45	52	319.18949847388	0.18423490176113	0.94093053284932	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	54.91	43.23	49.07	0.72171733333333	0.0755	0.2255	0.15	0.3755	F	F	22.91	250.91	52	319.29178991571	0.23043841917319	0.96646026291725	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	55.01	44.76	49.885	0.72363066666667	0.0893	0.2393	0.15	0.3893	F	F	23.01	250.01	52	319.29314391117	0.23105031059054	0.96726713287597	88	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	56.72	45.93	51.325	0	0.0912	0.2712	0.15	0.4212	F	F	24.72	256.72	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97876809254696	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	58.06	45.13	51.595	0	0.0432	0.0932	0.16	0.2532	F	F	26.06	258.06	52	318.7805875094	0	0.98520382906371	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 04:00:16	FORECAST	2020	41	121	58.09	45.14	51.615	0	0.0432	0.0732	0.16	0.2332	F	F	26.09	260.09	52	318.7805875094	0	0.98532623438556	88	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	56.77	44.12	50.445	0	0.1325	0.2125	0.16	0.3725	F	F	24.77	229.77	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97904499856453	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	56.8	44.14	50.47	0	0.1325	0.2125	0.16	0.3725	F	F	24.8	257.8	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97920967373303	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	56.75	45.48	51.115	0	0.133	0.213	0.16	0.373	F	F	24.75	257.75	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97893460429126	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	56.77	45.51	51.14	0	0.133	0.213	0.16	0.373	F	F	24.77	259.77	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97904499856453	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	55.75	40.66	48.205	0	0.1043	0.1143	0.16	0.2743	F	F	23.75	255.75	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97275466688318	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	55.75	40.72	48.235	0	0.1043	0.1143	0.16	0.2743	F	F	23.75	249.75	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97275466688318	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	55.61	42.8	49.205	0	0.4111	0.4311	0.16	0.5911	F	F	23.61	235.61	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97177961422174	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	54.79	45.14	49.965	0	0.4129	0.4329	0.16	0.5929	F	F	22.79	258.79	52	318.7805875094	0	0.96547054516046	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	55.47	45.61	50.54	0	0.4145	0.4445	0.16	0.6045	F	F	23.47	255.47	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97077576651563	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	55.49	45.61	50.55	0	0.4145	0.4445	0.16	0.6045	F	F	23.49	257.49	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97092095919813	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	53.11	43.75	48.43	0	1.6665	1.7565	0.16	1.9165	F	F	21.11	252.11	52	318.7805875094	0	0.94893705399611	88	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	53.28	43.87	48.575	0	1.6683	1.7983	0.17	1.9683	F	F	21.28	250.28	52	318.7805875094	0	0.95085325242307	88	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	53.31	43.91	48.61	0	1.6683	1.7983	0.16	1.9583	F	F	21.31	240.31	52	318.7805875094	0	0.95118538531259	88	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	56.07	47.01	51.54	0	0.3716	1.5716	0.17	1.7416	F	F	24.07	253.07	52	318.7805875094	0	0.97487844931896	88	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	54.49	45.6	50.045	0	0.1236	1.3836	0.17	1.5536	F	F	22.49	250.49	52	318.7805875094	0	0.96289129019963	88	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	41	121	50.85	45.63	48.24	0	0.0563	1.3163	0.16	1.4763	F	F	18.85	246.85	52	318.7805875094	0	0.91746157439552	88	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	51.61	45.34	48.475	0	1.1016	4.0516	0.16	4.2116	T	F	19.61	238.61	52	318.7805875094	0	0.92935923033772	88	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	WET	MH
2019-11-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	41	121	48.46	47.29	47.875	0	0.72	3.88	0.17	4.05	T	F	16.46	233.46	52	318.7805875094	0	0.87031730839066	88	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	WET	MH