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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 10, 2019

[ Saturday, November 9, 2019 | Index | Today | Monday, November 11, 2019 ]

DAY 41 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.722
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 224

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 66.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-11 04:00:11OBSERVATION20204112143.5099236.1099439.809935.14434666666670.139999999999990.689999999999990.150.83999999999999FF11.50992223.5099252322.4040159654 1.65855802485160.7221931332650688 45234266DRYH
2019-11-11 00:00:13FORECAST20204212235.7635.7635.764.97944533333330.01090.56090.150.7109FF3.76210.7652322.288600472291.60481846760830.400001056007418825234254DRYMH
2019-11-10 12:00:11FORECAST20204112148.3440.7144.5255.1055440.01860.56860.150.7186FF16.34228.3452322.376862081051.64590925393670.867538241724178855234272DRYH
2019-11-10 08:00:11FORECAST20204112148.2437.9543.0954.922520.01250.56250.150.7125FF16.24228.2452322.248746843341.58627590131130.86519130927028855234272DRYH
2019-11-10 04:00:13FORECAST20204112144.9137.5841.2455.33087633333330.02430.57430.150.7243FF12.91224.9152322.534511011781.71939159143590.770845876355588845234266DRYH
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204112147.7338.0642.8955.4787360.03850.04850.150.1985FF15.73221.7352322.637908835851.76764792610370.852780814829728855214224DRYL
2019-11-09 20:00:11FORECAST20204112148.5839.6444.116.51164533333330.03130.13130.150.2813FF16.58228.5852323.359137107632.10560001613760.873055849543838855224248DRYM
2019-11-09 16:00:11FORECAST20204112149.1441.3445.246.44735733333330.03110.13110.150.2811FF17.14229.1452323.314303252432.08452284404610.885304039470178855224248DRYM
2019-11-09 12:00:12FORECAST20204112149.4441.6745.5555.66638933333330.02150.12150.150.2715FF17.44229.4452322.769078349411.82893526268890.891509437146868855224248DRYM
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204112149.142.4145.7555.40858133333330.01690.27690.150.4269FF17.1230.152322.588854727991.74474805802320.884458004337438855224248DRYM
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204112149.3742.6746.025.10233616666670.02390.26390.150.4139FF17.37229.3752322.374617137851.64486366823780.89008350437098855224248DRYM
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204112149.8642.4846.174.02121333333330.02680.32680.150.4768FF17.86204.8652321.616970317431.29329044926670.899786972436938855224248DRYM
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204112148.9741.8445.4055.08265866666670.06760.36760.150.5176FF16.97226.9752322.360845800871.63845014670380.881677894950388855224248DRYM
2019-11-08 16:00:11FORECAST20204112148.5541.5245.0354.966820.0680.3480.150.498FF16.55229.5552322.279761928671.60070556714260.872375006539488855224248DRYM
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST20204112148.2341.3844.8053.89896133333330.07510.39510.150.5451FF16.23229.2352321.531165567591.25363758200960.86495506113228855224248DRYM
2019-11-08 08:00:11FORECAST20204112148.1740.4944.333.634320.12440.44440.150.5944FF16.17228.1752321.345331029861.16787176346850.863531628288318855224248DRYM
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST20204112148.3540.3844.3653.33612208333330.19290.51290.150.6629FF16.35223.3552321.135782895251.07134817706540.867771381457798855234272DRYH
2019-11-08 00:00:13FORECAST20204112148.8442.745.771.5930840.24240.60240.150.7524FF16.84213.8452319.907743592570.509639907793430.878850972307118855234272DRYH
2019-11-07 20:00:11FORECAST20204112146.3943.4544.922.54218933333330.36050.70050.150.8505FF14.39225.3952320.577100040670.814967684234320.816637920335798845234266DRYH
2019-11-07 16:00:11FORECAST20204112148.9641.3145.1352.45330133333330.64150.83150.150.9815FF16.96228.9652320.514480249980.786318601749920.881462104181358855234272DRYH
2019-11-07 12:00:12FORECAST20204112148.6140.944.7551.12030933333330.67970.81970.150.9697FF16.61228.6152319.573716726270.358021417536460.873734167856248855234272DRYH
2019-11-07 08:00:11FORECAST20204112144.9541.5143.231.2887920.44740.57740.150.7274FF12.95219.9552319.692799856080.412017522912120.772162070515118845234266DRYH
2019-11-07 04:00:12FORECAST20204112152.4239.8846.151.37563416666670.08850.19850.150.3485FF20.42228.4252319.754159783220.439864747131590.940544511761698855224248DRYM
2019-11-07 00:00:14FORECAST20204112152.4539.8246.1350.5771960.09810.22810.150.3781FF20.45218.4552319.189498473880.184234901761130.940930532849328855224248DRYM
2019-11-06 20:00:11FORECAST20204112154.9143.2349.070.721717333333330.07550.22550.150.3755FF22.91250.9152319.291789915710.230438419173190.966460262917258855224248DRYM
2019-11-06 16:00:11FORECAST20204112155.0144.7649.8850.723630666666670.08930.23930.150.3893FF23.01250.0152319.293143911170.231050310590540.967267132875978855224248DRYM
2019-11-06 12:00:12FORECAST20204112156.7245.9351.32500.09120.27120.150.4212FF24.72256.7252318.780587509400.978768092546968855225260DRYH
2019-11-06 08:00:12FORECAST20204112158.0645.1351.59500.04320.09320.160.2532FF26.06258.0652318.780587509400.985203829063718855225260DRYH
2019-11-06 04:00:16FORECAST20204112158.0945.1451.61500.04320.07320.160.2332FF26.09260.0952318.780587509400.985326234385568855215230DRYL
2019-11-06 00:00:13FORECAST20204112156.7744.1250.44500.13250.21250.160.3725FF24.77229.7752318.780587509400.979044998564538855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 20:00:11FORECAST20204112156.844.1450.4700.13250.21250.160.3725FF24.8257.852318.780587509400.979209673733038855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 16:00:11FORECAST20204112156.7545.4851.11500.1330.2130.160.373FF24.75257.7552318.780587509400.978934604291268855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 12:00:11FORECAST20204112156.7745.5151.1400.1330.2130.160.373FF24.77259.7752318.780587509400.979044998564538855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 08:00:11FORECAST20204112155.7540.6648.20500.10430.11430.160.2743FF23.75255.7552318.780587509400.972754666883188855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20204112155.7540.7248.23500.10430.11430.160.2743FF23.75249.7552318.780587509400.972754666883188855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 00:00:13FORECAST20204112155.6142.849.20500.41110.43110.160.5911FF23.61235.6152318.780587509400.971779614221748855225260DRYH
2019-11-04 20:00:12FORECAST20204112154.7945.1449.96500.41290.43290.160.5929FF22.79258.7952318.780587509400.965470545160468855225260DRYH
2019-11-04 16:00:12FORECAST20204112155.4745.6150.5400.41450.44450.160.6045FF23.47255.4752318.780587509400.970775766515638855225260DRYH
2019-11-04 12:00:12FORECAST20204112155.4945.6150.5500.41450.44450.160.6045FF23.49257.4952318.780587509400.970920959198138855225260DRYH
2019-11-04 08:00:11FORECAST20204112153.1143.7548.4301.66651.75650.161.9165FF21.11252.1152318.780587509400.9489370539961188552552150DRYVH
2019-11-04 04:00:12FORECAST20204112153.2843.8748.57501.66831.79830.171.9683FF21.28250.2852318.780587509400.9508532524230788552552150DRYVH
2019-11-04 00:00:13FORECAST20204112153.3143.9148.6101.66831.79830.161.9583FF21.31240.3152318.780587509400.9511853853125988552552150DRYVH
2019-11-03 20:00:12FORECAST20204112156.0747.0151.5400.37161.57160.171.7416FF24.07253.0752318.780587509400.9748784493189688552552150DRYVH
2019-11-03 16:00:12FORECAST20204112154.4945.650.04500.12361.38360.171.5536FF22.49250.4952318.780587509400.9628912901996388552452120DRYVH
2019-11-03 12:00:11FORECAST20204112150.8545.6348.2400.05631.31630.161.4763FF18.85246.8552318.780587509400.9174615743955288552452120DRYVH
2019-11-03 08:00:12FORECAST20204112151.6145.3448.47501.10164.05160.164.2116TF19.61238.6152318.780587509400.9293592303377288552552150WETMH
2019-11-03 04:00:12FORECAST20204112148.4647.2947.87500.723.880.174.05TF16.46233.4652318.780587509400.8703173083906688552552150WETMH