Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 8, 2019

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DAY 39 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.49°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.63°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.06°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.954 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.16 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.16 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 8 in SWE DAY: 54 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.35 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 2.56 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 18.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-09 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	39	119	56.49008	43.62998	50.06003	7.8379108333333	0	0	0.16	0.16	F	F	24.49008	217.49008	54	326.35404225897	2.5579338833237	0.9539509456895	89	5	5	2	1	3	2	18	DRY	L
2019-11-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	31.31	31.31	31.31	7	0.0011	0.0011	0.16	0.1611	F	F	-0.69	190.31	54	325.77549731929	2.2804284812351	0.19035789566623	89	1	5	1	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2019-11-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	53.72	42.79	48.255	6.9236133333333	0.0033	0.0033	0.16	0.1633	F	F	21.72	214.72	54	325.72269402041	2.255177987289	0.91954805690128	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.18	37.76	46.97	6.5650546666667	0.0078	0.0078	0.16	0.1678	F	F	24.18	217.18	54	325.47469861691	2.1367591890369	0.95081427493161	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	51.08	30.11	40.595	6.36000875	0.0049	0.0049	0.16	0.1649	F	F	19.08	212.08	54	325.33277803588	2.06911931497	0.87144626884729	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	39	119	55.33	43.18	49.255	4.7490453333333	0.0027	0.0027	0.16	0.1627	F	F	23.33	201.33	54	324.2151897041	1.53971263366	0.94133949857889	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	55.9	43.33	49.615	5.9010733333333	0.0024	0.0024	0.16	0.1624	F	F	23.9	210.9	54	325.0148622663	1.9179365366567	0.94783790088906	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	55.9	43.45	49.675	5.878004	0.002	0.002	0.16	0.162	F	F	23.9	210.9	54	324.99887179117	1.910344668384	0.94783790088906	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.28	44.19	50.235	4.499256	0.0019	0.0019	0.16	0.1619	F	F	24.28	211.28	54	324.0414911995	1.4579456235283	0.95184390519512	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.38	44.64	50.51	4.2445093333333	0.0019	0.0019	0.16	0.1619	F	F	24.38	211.38	54	323.86423191997	1.3746447551171	0.95285627218469	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.63	45.19	50.91	4.5172181666667	0.0021	0.0021	0.16	0.1621	F	F	24.63	207.63	54	324.05398540861	1.4638225498685	0.95531287783631	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-07 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.48	45.04	50.76	3.6546013333333	0.0024	0.0024	0.16	0.1624	F	F	24.48	198.48	54	323.45331818183	1.1820929278984	0.95385156089609	89	5	5	1	1	4	2	22	DRY	L
2019-11-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	59.53	44.27	51.9	4.51378	0.002	0.002	0.16	0.162	F	F	27.53	225.53	54	324.05159391644	1.4626976035882	0.97696903004955	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	59.4	44.34	51.87	4.5947413333333	0.0019	0.0019	0.16	0.1619	F	F	27.4	225.4	54	324.10790280202	1.4891919774644	0.97623470466181	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	58.71	44.95	51.83	3.481728	0.002	0.002	0.16	0.162	F	F	26.71	223.71	54	323.33278265802	1.1257568026983	0.97200087381392	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	59.45	44.99	52.22	3.2584146666667	0.0026	0.0126	0.16	0.1726	F	F	27.45	225.45	54	323.17699959874	1.0530446754219	0.97651942879125	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 04:00:16	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.18	44.51	52.845	2.5890509166667	0	0.01	0.16	0.17	F	F	29.18	227.18	54	322.70952268387	0.83551138552173	0.98474852872431	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.62	44.14	52.88	2.071728	0.0006	0.0106	0.16	0.1706	F	F	29.62	197.62	54	322.34768466379	0.66781672405314	0.98639514917077	89	5	5	1	1	4	2	22	DRY	L
2019-11-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.63	43.39	52.51	2.9889626666667	0.0006	0.0006	0.17	0.1706	F	F	29.63	225.63	54	322.98891260071	0.96540180151079	0.98643071867401	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.11	44.27	52.69	3.2170866666667	0	0	0.17	0.17	F	F	29.11	225.11	54	323.14815955456	1.0395956354609	0.98447140607467	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	62.05	44.31	53.18	1.8831106666667	0	0	0.17	0.17	F	F	30.05	227.05	54	322.21563922062	0.60676770718317	0.98785399554818	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.84	44.56	53.2	1.7067013333333	0.0018	0.0018	0.17	0.1718	F	F	29.84	226.84	54	322.09208297365	0.54971498746725	0.98715937934741	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.49	44.44	52.965	1.1919854166667	0.0014	0.0014	0.17	0.1714	F	F	29.49	221.49	54	321.73126183908	0.38349897219795	0.98592538523943	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	39	119	62.02	45.23	53.625	0.25892666666667	0.0025	0.0025	0.17	0.1725	F	F	30.02	205.02	54	321.07597422971	0.083135131754052	0.98775680015271	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-04 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	63.04	45.33	54.185	1.2663613333333	0.0023	0.0023	0.17	0.1723	F	F	31.04	228.04	54	321.78342928108	0.40749409254897	0.99070780561936	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.56	45.59	53.575	1.3979986666667	0.0027	0.0027	0.17	0.1727	F	F	29.56	226.56	54	321.87573586107	0.44998184956613	0.98618004065551	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.59	45.63	53.61	0	0.0027	0.0027	0.17	0.1727	F	F	29.59	228.59	54	320.89385445808	0	0.98628795823819	89	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	61.38	45.84	53.61	0	0.001	0.001	0.17	0.171	F	F	29.38	226.38	54	320.89385445808	0	0.98551705693196	89	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	60.01	45.11	52.56	0	0.001	0.001	0.18	0.181	F	F	28.01	226.01	54	320.89385445808	0	0.97951732879471	89	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	39	119	60.04	45.12	52.58	0	0.001	0.001	0.17	0.171	F	F	28.04	216.04	54	320.89385445808	0	0.97966835297109	89	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-03 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.12	45.24	50.68	0.334988	0.5323	0.5323	0.18	0.7123	F	F	24.12	224.12	54	321.1294502993	0.10757451229686	0.95018813361505	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-03 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	54.51	42.2	48.355	0.337284	0.5299	0.5299	0.18	0.7099	F	F	22.51	224.51	54	321.13106437615	0.10831236991705	0.93090064129614	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	54.54	42.22	48.38	0	0.5299	0.5299	0.17	0.6999	F	F	22.54	224.54	54	320.89385445808	0	0.93130615579537	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	51.7	42.55	47.125	0	0.7055	0.7055	0.17	0.8755	F	F	19.7	214.7	54	320.89385445808	0	0.88422035612811	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	50.89	44.03	47.46	0	0.7373	0.7473	0.17	0.9173	F	F	18.89	212.89	54	320.89385445808	0	0.8673434113764	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.41	46	51.205	0	0.2627	0.8527	0.17	1.0227	F	F	24.41	192.41	54	320.89385445808	0	0.95315664358901	89	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	56.43	46.03	51.23	0.29380666666667	0.2627	0.8527	0.17	1.0227	F	F	24.43	215.43	54	321.10049842326	0.094341467106744	0.9533560397466	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-02 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	55.25	43.92	49.585	0.42046933333333	0.1324	0.3524	0.16	0.5124	F	F	23.25	214.25	54	321.18953691365	0.13505035045972	0.94037883183959	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-02 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	53.15	43.48	48.315	0	1.0574	1.6574	0.16	1.8174	F	F	21.15	211.15	54	320.89385445808	0	0.91052244201765	89	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	39	119	53.18	43.51	48.345	0	1.0574	1.6574	0.16	1.8174	F	F	21.18	212.18	54	320.89385445808	0	0.9110154445785	89	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	53.88	45.79	49.835	0	1.0518	1.7518	0.17	1.9218	F	F	21.88	209.88	54	320.89385445808	0	0.92195396357078	89	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	39	119	57.37	46.12	51.745	0	0.4195	0.5095	0.17	0.6795	F	F	25.37	202.37	54	320.89385445808	0	0.96198700208258	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-01 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	39	119	57.38	46.15	51.765	0	0.1908	0.2808	0.18	0.4608	F	F	25.38	220.38	54	320.89385445808	0	0.96207130972772	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-01 16:02:15	FORECAST	2020	39	119	58.16	44.75	51.455	0	0.0015	0.0315	0.17	0.2015	F	F	26.16	221.16	54	320.89385445808	0	0.96819317099792	89	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-01 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	39	119	48.57	42.49	45.53	0	0.0206	0.1906	0.17	0.3606	F	F	16.57	212.57	54	320.89385445808	0	0.81001024526417	89	4	5	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-01 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	39	119	44.06	42.96	43.51	0	0.0092	0.1792	0.17	0.3492	F	F	12.06	207.06	54	320.89385445808	0	0.66255423589212	89	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH