Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 27, 2019

[ Saturday, October 26, 2019 | Index | Today | Monday, October 28, 2019 ]

DAY 27 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/28/2019 12:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.67°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.61°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.14°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.132 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 140 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.23 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 9 in SWE DAY: 67 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.22 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.05 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 107 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 21.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-28 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	31.67	28.61	30.14	9.0003556430077	0.0084	0.1384	7.23	7.3684	T	T	-0.33	139.67	66	339.22335968776	3.0531308796058	0.13237908639371	87	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-10-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.66	26.42	33.04	8.8669904361279	0.0044	0.1344	7.23	7.3644	T	T	7.66	147.66	66	339.13571874685	3.0071131746777	0.35897959489066	87	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	H
2019-10-27 08:02:15	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.68	23.34	31.51	8.8272694736988	0.0126	0.1426	7.23	7.3726	T	T	7.68	147.68	66	339.10961037943	2.9934119119403	0.35968502454119	87	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.71	24.67	32.19	8.8226851320506	0.0073	0.1373	7.23	7.3673	T	T	7.71	147.71	66	339.10659694764	2.9918307310702	0.3607440648911	87	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	H
2019-10-27 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	33.87	25.6	29.735	9.4515140670817	0.007	0.137	7.23	7.367	T	T	1.87	141.87	66	339.5196184369	3.2089744497065	0.18206936521126	87	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-10-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	35.2	24.21	29.705	9.4371389767945	0.0047	0.1347	7.23	7.3647	T	T	3.2	143.2	66	339.51018409172	3.2040047913107	0.2171116174257	87	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:02:16	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.76	23.56	31.66	20.832567771384	0.0075	0.0075	7.23	7.2375	T	T	7.76	139.76	67	347.8339782809	7.2462749257269	0.36251150288554	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.1	26.75	32.925	20.84439231903	0.005	0.005	7.23	7.235	T	T	7.1	139.1	67	347.84148873879	7.2505444561068	0.33943042191941	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:02:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.83	26.59	33.21	20.818683723002	0.004	0.034	7.23	7.264	T	T	7.83	150.83	67	347.82515942639	7.2412619850008	0.36499083687335	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.83	26.38	33.105	20.822845979806	0.0057	0.0357	7.23	7.2657	T	T	7.83	150.83	67	347.82780323671	7.2427647742924	0.36499083687335	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.65	28.73	34.19	20.803652864798	0.001	0.031	7.23	7.261	T	T	7.65	150.65	67	347.81561179189	7.2358352486758	0.35862706005907	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.66	28.74	34.2	20.817950675952	0.001	0.031	7.23	7.261	T	T	7.66	150.66	67	347.82469380173	7.2409973194426	0.35897959489066	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40	28.55	34.275	20.783351235295	0.0029	0.0329	7.23	7.2629	T	T	8	152	67	347.80271557308	7.2285059983447	0.37103543037097	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40	28.58	34.29	20.782208636927	0.0021	0.0221	7.23	7.2521	T	T	8	152	67	347.80198973972	7.2280935151093	0.37103543037097	87	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.29	28.86	34.575	21.839355030652	0.0011	0.3511	7.23	7.5811	T	T	8.29	169.29	67	348.47264007023	7.6104177049623	0.38141983398914	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.3	28.86	34.58	21.827017621844	0.0011	0.3511	7.23	7.5811	T	T	8.3	169.3	67	348.464823638	7.6059478461392	0.38177949230979	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	27	107	41.18	30.15	35.665	20.753568831384	0.0006	0.3206	7.23	7.5506	T	T	9.18	170.18	67	347.78379567168	7.2177549419123	0.41379536447434	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:02:15	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.93	29.31	35.12	21.81165286795	0.0004	0.2904	7.24	7.5304	T	T	8.93	189.93	67	348.4550888724	7.6003814385552	0.40463140021455	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.93	29.31	35.12	21.685363607928	0.0004	0.2904	7.24	7.5304	T	T	8.93	190.93	67	348.37506041589	7.5546398570524	0.40463140021455	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.77	29.38	35.075	21.778115828523	0.0008	0.2908	7.24	7.5308	T	T	8.77	190.77	67	348.43383923204	7.5882325093725	0.39879345568166	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.78	29.38	35.08	21.76350001786	0.0008	0.2908	7.24	7.5308	T	T	8.78	190.78	67	348.42457783869	7.5829383060154	0.39915767942369	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	27	107	35.93	29.77	32.85	20.524742460275	0	0.29	7.24	7.53	T	T	3.93	185.93	67	347.63838113111	7.1351882420231	0.23789184969903	87	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	36.07	30	33.035	20.362196149893	0	0.14	7.24	7.38	T	T	4.07	186.07	67	347.53503487736	7.0765765491328	0.24199795623911	87	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-23 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.98	29.49	36.235	20.519433853908	0.0002	0.1302	7.24	7.3702	T	T	10.98	194.98	67	347.63500661568	7.1332735235534	0.48086457138376	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-23 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.59	29.5	36.045	20.460685216038	0.0004	0.1304	7.24	7.3704	T	T	10.59	192.59	67	347.59765890144	7.112086280614	0.46621985924263	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	43.28	30.12	36.7	19.804238848634	0.0017	0.1217	7.23	7.3517	T	T	11.28	189.28	67	347.17996321187	6.8756349149081	0.4921483779826	87	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	43.7	30.22	36.96	19.225287665029	0.001	0.161	7.23	7.391	T	T	11.7	199.7	67	346.81099914928	6.667541224041	0.50795424408553	87	3	5	2	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-22 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	43.73	30.23	36.98	19.20041264356	0.001	0.231	7.25	7.481	T	T	11.73	210.73	67	346.79513420361	6.658609679488	0.50908305059416	87	3	5	2	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-22 16:01:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	43.28	30.11	36.695	19.084648030608	0.001	0.201	7.24	7.441	T	T	11.28	211.28	67	346.72128794088	6.6170537450708	0.4921483779826	87	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	41.41	26.77	34.09	18.83474223693	0.0033	0.1933	7.24	7.4333	T	T	9.41	207.41	67	346.56179894847	6.5274021523611	0.42226799730108	87	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	27	107	41.66	26.62	34.14	18.772498738575	0.0033	0.1933	7.23	7.4233	T	T	9.66	209.66	67	346.52205961817	6.5050849270705	0.43151822150802	87	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	41.68	26.63	34.155	0	0.0033	0.1733	7.24	7.4133	T	T	9.68	209.68	67	334.24545831631	0	0.43225993460205	87	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.3	25.13	33.715	0	0.0042	0.1342	7.5	7.6342	T	T	10.3	203.3	67	334.24545831631	0	0.45535867539605	87	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.63	27.94	35.285	23.889450395996	0.0013	0.0913	6.41	6.5013	T	F	10.63	212.63	67	349.76809295596	8.3557675067736	0.46772011481386	87	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.67	27.95	35.31	23.776514141717	0.0013	0.0813	7.18	7.2613	T	T	10.67	217.67	67	349.696904102	8.3145733856961	0.46922082901685	87	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.99	27.83	35.41	23.722792703495	0.0015	0.0815	7.49	7.5715	T	T	10.99	216.99	67	349.66303386992	8.2949836685713	0.48124050158471	87	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	42.64	28.07	35.355	23.08946656638	0.0022	0.1422	7.26	7.4022	T	T	10.64	219.64	67	349.26338651459	8.0643052857894	0.468095251197	87	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:42	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.92	26.96	33.94	24.071352835226	0.0022	0.1922	7.34	7.5322	T	T	8.92	203.92	67	349.88271140504	8.4221501971764	0.40426589154376	87	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	40.92	26.96	33.94	0.12091218454958	0.0022	0.1922	7.62	7.8122	T	T	8.92	201.92	67	334.3264186619	0.040424137633047	0.40426589154376	87	2	5	2	2	4	2	36	WET	H
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.5	24.13	31.815	0.034000405266973	0.0022	0.1722	7.87	8.0422	T	T	7.5	211.5	67	334.26822681076	0.011365255179438	0.35335363243665	87	2	5	2	2	4	2	36	WET	L
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	27	107	41.55	28.07	34.81	0	0.0017	0.1617	8.13	8.2917	T	T	9.55	202.55	67	334.24545831631	0	0.42744318219136	87	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-20 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	27	107	41.55	28.09	34.82	0	0.0015	0.1615	8.61	8.7715	T	T	9.55	208.55	67	334.24545831631	0	0.42744318219136	87	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	39.55	27.44	33.495	0.28559145777011	0.0011	0.2011	8.26	8.4611	T	T	7.55	207.55	67	334.43664457612	0.095512248856239	0.35510837627095	87	2	5	2	2	4	2	36	WET	H
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	31.52	28.1	29.81	0.15066387197212	0.0049	0.0949	8.12	8.2149	T	T	-0.48	194.52	67	334.34633597668	0.050373913557938	0.1293684031162	87	1	5	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	27	107	30.01	29.14	29.575	0.1613353140312	0.0042	0.0942	8.39	8.4842	T	T	-1.99	191.01	67	334.35347962391	0.053943023632547	0.10168093412482	87	1	5	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	27	107	31.08	30.78	30.93	0.0015692977888573	0.0003	0.0503	8.44	8.4903	T	T	-0.92	204.08	67	334.24650924554	0.00052453230789229	0.12081127761121	87	1	5	2	1	5	2	20	WET	L