Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 26, 2019

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DAY 26 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/27/2019 04:01:00 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.23°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.119 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 142 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.13 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 9 in SWE DAY: 68 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.50 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.07 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 106 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 21.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-27 04:02:13	OBSERVATION	2020	26	106	33.22994	25.25	29.23997	9.4864582608696	0.13	0.13	7.24	7.37	T	T	1.22994	142.22994	68	341.49862492721	3.2396124515163	0.11874062637076	86	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-10-27 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	26	106	33.22994	25.25	29.23997	9.4864582608696	0.13	0.13	7.24	7.37	T	T	1.22994	142.22994	68	341.49862492721	3.2396124515163	0.11874062637076	86	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	26	106	24.85	24.26	24.555	21	0	0	7.24	7.24	T	T	-7.15	133.85	67	347.94030321323	7.3067463674778	0.019690619201316	86	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	26	106	35.96	25.01	30.485	20.981506590512	0.0301	0.0301	7.24	7.2701	T	T	3.96	144.96	67	347.9285615156	7.3000654064672	0.18520443737852	86	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	35.82	26.44	31.13	20.995960390957	0.026	0.026	7.24	7.266	T	T	3.82	144.82	67	347.93773846186	7.3052869752643	0.18131942242657	86	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.81	26.59	31.7	20.967950484918	0.0278	0.0278	7.24	7.2678	T	T	4.81	145.81	68	348.86807582581	7.3150485396842	0.20988298919007	86	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.96	26.75	31.855	20.971747894321	0.0249	0.0249	7.24	7.2649	T	T	4.96	145.96	68	348.8704778317	7.3164237088578	0.21443000183907	86	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.85	24.93	30.89	22.03830175358	0.0401	0.3501	7.24	7.5901	T	T	4.85	162.85	68	349.5441974814	7.7033605003081	0.21108996250981	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.86	24.84	30.85	22.026069902728	0.0371	0.3471	7.24	7.5871	T	T	4.86	162.86	68	349.53648121965	7.6989149688975	0.21139233903016	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.46	27.4	32.43	21.033404736056	0.0128	0.3228	7.24	7.5628	T	T	5.46	163.46	68	348.90947488753	7.3387542015543	0.22999340501644	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:02:15	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.47	27.04	32.255	22.059730201283	0.0133	0.3033	7.24	7.5433	T	T	5.47	183.47	68	349.55771468703	7.7111488757728	0.23031097743172	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.47	27.04	32.255	21.933440941261	0.0133	0.3033	7.24	7.5433	T	T	5.47	184.47	68	349.47803998174	7.6652559502072	0.23031097743172	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.66	27.12	32.39	22.033720589402	0.0162	0.2962	7.24	7.5362	T	T	5.66	183.66	68	349.54130755747	7.7016955051755	0.23639115194387	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.66	27.12	32.39	22.019155318057	0.0162	0.2962	7.24	7.5362	T	T	5.66	183.66	68	349.53211916167	7.6964020204705	0.23639115194387	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.82	27.61	32.715	20.686993126942	0.0083	0.2983	7.24	7.5383	T	T	5.82	183.82	68	348.69029532573	7.2133537428348	0.24157896962363	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	38.08	27.96	33.02	20.524720149893	0.0089	0.1489	7.24	7.3889	T	T	6.08	184.08	68	348.58755655235	7.154662045972	0.25013917233031	86	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-23 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	26	106	38.61	27.75	33.18	20.870229853908	0.0166	0.1366	7.24	7.3766	T	T	6.61	185.61	68	348.80625583975	7.2796667338566	0.26807433698597	86	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-23 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.45	28.38	32.915	20.798354466013	0.0168	0.1368	7.24	7.3768	T	T	5.45	184.45	68	348.76077626633	7.2536502486292	0.22967607739999	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	32.98	28.54	30.76	20.236433515301	0.0158	0.1158	7.24	7.3558	T	T	0.98	179.98	68	348.40493114594	7.0504732255378	0.11362644977862	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.66	28.2	34.43	19.708022637765	0.0062	0.1562	7.24	7.3962	T	T	8.66	189.66	68	348.06984311774	6.8597683476878	0.34297201483822	86	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-22 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.69	28.36	34.525	19.68353770106	0.0074	0.2274	7.26	7.4874	T	T	8.69	200.69	68	348.05430526262	6.8509400396531	0.34412550340004	86	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 16:01:13	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.89	29.3	35.095	19.475178941954	0.0086	0.1986	7.25	7.4486	T	T	8.89	201.89	68	347.92204411847	6.7758440670578	0.35185205399427	86	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	38.83	27.01	32.92	19.039363521424	0.0138	0.1938	7.25	7.4438	T	T	6.83	199.83	68	347.64517251247	6.6189428159332	0.27570451335676	86	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	26	106	38.89	26.7	32.795	18.985209755322	0.0138	0.1938	7.24	7.4338	T	T	6.89	201.89	68	347.61074745179	6.5994629535766	0.27780382272235	86	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	38.9	26.71	32.805	0	0.0138	0.1738	7.25	7.4238	T	T	6.9	201.9	68	335.24544439784	0	0.27815446403402	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.11	27.53	33.82	0	0.0141	0.1341	7.51	7.6441	T	T	8.11	195.11	68	335.24544439784	0	0.32209310574198	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.65	28.29	34.47	24.186446765993	0.0193	0.0893	6.42	6.5093	T	F	8.65	203.65	68	350.89560815287	8.4869179470102	0.34258784280436	86	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.68	28.31	34.495	24.074714679911	0.0196	0.0796	7.19	7.2696	T	T	8.68	208.68	68	350.82549848222	8.4460237783972	0.34374084548713	86	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.58	28.07	34.325	24.042582657734	0.0199	0.0799	7.5	7.5799	T	T	8.58	207.58	68	350.80533259077	8.4342662055875	0.33990321262849	86	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.05	28.14	34.095	23.375516775463	0.051	0.141	7.27	7.411	T	T	8.05	211.05	68	350.38631351639	8.1904611494952	0.31984751011004	86	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:42	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.04	25.9	31.47	24.280232337869	0.0727	0.1927	7.35	7.5427	T	T	5.04	197.04	68	350.95444138339	8.5212553767956	0.21687826958126	86	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	37.04	25.9	31.47	0.32874397784321	0.0727	0.1927	7.63	7.8227	T	T	5.04	195.04	68	335.46467195919	0.11028199068573	0.21687826958126	86	1	5	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	38.6	26.57	32.585	0.18886806641484	0.0577	0.1677	7.88	8.0477	T	T	6.6	205.6	68	335.37141610699	0.063340950890933	0.26773004989034	86	2	5	2	2	4	2	36	WET	H
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.79	25.93	31.36	0.11852039577669	0.0461	0.1561	8.14	8.2961	T	T	4.79	194.79	68	335.32450249893	0.039742792749796	0.2092810238074	86	1	5	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-10-20 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.8	25.93	31.365	0.12343976416982	0.0461	0.1561	8.62	8.7761	T	T	4.8	200.8	68	335.32778341066	0.041392782503802	0.20958187963	86	1	5	2	2	4	2	32	WET	L
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.16	25.68	30.92	0.41022230159733	0.0869	0.1969	8.27	8.4669	T	T	4.16	202.16	68	335.51897862766	0.13763736764222	0.1908431678724	86	1	5	2	2	4	2	32	WET	L
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.73	28.27	34.5	0.12022574644016	0.0567	0.0867	8.13	8.2167	T	T	8.73	196.73	68	335.32563986604	0.04031477535342	0.34566574409304	86	2	5	1	1	4	2	16	WET	H
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.73	28.28	34.505	0.13523477602996	0.0567	0.0867	8.4	8.4867	T	T	8.73	194.73	68	335.33564978055	0.045349041492932	0.34566574409304	86	2	5	1	1	4	2	16	WET	H
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	40.98	27.59	34.285	0	0.0044	0.0544	8.45	8.5044	T	T	8.98	206.98	68	335.24544439784	0	0.35534928550341	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 00:01:14	FORECAST	2020	26	106	35.93	25.64	30.785	0.0086688050128214	0.0343	0.0743	7.05	7.1243	T	T	3.93	196.93	68	335.25122766304	0.0029062275229199	0.18436762146895	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	L
2019-10-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	35.94	26.86	31.4	0.010059734536152	0.0343	0.0743	7.58	7.6543	T	T	3.94	193.94	68	335.25215558926	0.0033725476879006	0.18464629895925	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	L
2019-10-19 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	36.28	28.88	32.58	0.0093872749257933	0.0151	0.0951	6.81	6.9051	T	T	4.28	194.28	68	335.25170697391	0.0031470999427056	0.19427630533054	86	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2019-10-19 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	43.99	37.99	40.99	0	0.0134	0.0134	7.93	7.9434	T	T	11.99	198.99	68	335.24544439784	0	0.47754779054341	86	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2019-10-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	26	106	44.01	38.8	41.405	0	0.0098	0.0098	7.99	7.9998	T	T	12.01	201.01	68	335.24544439784	0	0.47838047329928	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2019-10-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	26	106	47.2	45.29	46.245	0.73745945625226	0.0044	0.0044	8.32	8.3244	T	T	15.2	208.2	68	335.73697449787	0.24759240665698	0.60995549541685	86	3	5	2	1	4	2	20	WET	H