Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 28, 2019

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DAY 28 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/29/2019 12:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 18.51°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.51°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.008 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.23 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 9 in SWE DAY: 66 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.24 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 108 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 21.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	18.51	18.51	18.51	9	0	0.14	7.23	7.37	T	T	-13.49	117.51	65	338.23828388035	3.0441445549231	0.0084102575614481	90	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-10-28 12:02:13	FORECAST	2020	28	108	38.01	21.83	29.92	8.9407377485317	0.005	0.145	7.23	7.375	T	T	6.01	137.01	65	338.19919506817	3.023750309869	0.2952122272518	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	38.96	22.46	30.71	8.875064648114	0.0057	0.1457	7.23	7.3757	T	T	6.96	137.96	65	338.15587084793	3.0011552149147	0.32699190731196	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-28 08:02:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	38.54	22.81	30.675	8.8521695535371	0.0085	0.1485	7.23	7.3785	T	T	6.54	137.54	65	338.14076536806	2.9932793880008	0.31276864420781	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	38.49	22.82	30.655	8.849180770459	0.0069	0.1469	7.23	7.3769	T	T	6.49	137.49	65	338.138793396	2.9922513082661	0.31109326679906	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-28 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.49	22.06	31.275	8.8310395690933	0.0093	0.1493	7.23	7.3793	T	T	8.49	139.49	66	339.11208855528	2.9947122723896	0.38082514373626	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-28 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.92	22.2	31.06	8.7230854371509	0.0062	0.1462	7.23	7.3762	T	T	7.92	138.92	66	339.04111827576	2.9574846414267	0.36043217578424	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.94	22.32	31.13	8.6699832099102	0.0042	0.1342	7.23	7.3642	T	T	7.94	146.94	66	339.00620112378	2.9391780717986	0.361141427269	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 08:02:15	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.3	21.71	31.005	8.6111328620782	0.0003	0.1403	7.23	7.3703	T	T	8.3	147.3	66	338.96749881635	2.9188941682339	0.37398742614793	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.3	21.72	31.01	8.6065044369254	0.0003	0.1403	7.23	7.3703	T	T	8.3	147.3	66	338.96445473622	2.9172990836473	0.37398742614793	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.17	21.68	30.925	9.2473655311393	0.004	0.144	7.23	7.374	T	T	8.17	141.17	66	339.38560383352	3.138422734655	0.3693315745485	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.17	21.68	30.925	9.2329021304177	0.004	0.134	7.23	7.364	T	T	8.17	142.17	66	339.37610660592	3.1334263776947	0.3693315745485	90	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:02:16	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.04	21.97	31.005	20.639307452465	0.0047	0.0147	7.23	7.2447	T	T	8.04	139.04	66	346.75866932539	7.1568587880144	0.36469480207255	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.68	20.89	30.285	20.681135845128	0.0094	0.0194	7.23	7.2494	T	T	7.68	137.68	66	346.78535019703	7.171914936525	0.35195920273295	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:02:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.49	21.46	30.475	20.657309898454	0.0093	0.0393	7.23	7.2693	T	T	7.49	149.49	66	346.77015280477	7.1633385100223	0.34530291040568	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.49	21.47	30.48	20.661481849186	0.0093	0.0493	7.23	7.2793	T	T	7.49	149.49	66	346.7728139521	7.1648402012626	0.34530291040568	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.91	24.95	32.43	20.589144502413	0.0025	0.0325	7.23	7.2625	T	T	7.91	149.91	66	346.72666839208	7.1388054783648	0.36007772978382	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	39.91	24.96	32.435	20.603335297195	0.0025	0.0325	7.23	7.2625	T	T	7.91	149.91	66	346.7357216759	7.1439123332035	0.36007772978382	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	40.99	26.33	33.66	20.521528722647	0.0022	0.0322	7.23	7.2622	T	T	8.99	151.99	66	346.68352715465	7.1144759601727	0.39899261465742	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	28	108	41.08	27.77	34.425	20.501823303594	0.0012	0.0212	7.23	7.2512	T	T	9.08	152.08	66	346.67095301227	7.107386623146	0.40228739212188	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	28	108	41.71	29.59	35.65	21.553108300334	0.0008	0.0408	7.54	7.5808	T	T	9.71	169.71	66	347.34090599128	7.4862761639663	0.42553284757543	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	28	108	41.72	29.6	35.66	21.540664854361	0.0008	0.0408	7.54	7.5808	T	T	9.72	169.72	66	347.33298660702	7.4817834573661	0.42590414608035	90	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	28	108	46.86	31.15	39.005	20.080075498051	0.0014	0.0114	7.54	7.5514	T	T	14.86	175.86	66	346.40168235123	6.9557719342647	0.61792503016206	90	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:02:15	FORECAST	2020	28	108	46.08	30	38.04	21.247711534616	0.0016	0.0116	7.52	7.5316	T	T	14.08	195.08	66	347.14646994845	7.376068053725	0.58945989568374	90	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	46.09	30	38.045	21.121422274594	0.0016	0.0116	7.52	7.5316	T	T	14.09	196.09	66	347.06602165275	7.3305280004911	0.58982818363362	90	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	46.04	32.15	39.095	21.18006249519	0.0016	0.0216	7.51	7.5316	T	T	14.04	196.04	66	347.10337962847	7.3516712728225	0.5879859581815	90	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	46.04	32.14	39.09	21.165446684527	0.0016	0.0216	7.51	7.5316	T	T	14.04	196.04	66	347.09406884201	7.346401008591	0.5879859581815	90	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	28	108	50.07	33.1	41.585	19.565834460275	0.0002	0.0102	7.52	7.5302	T	T	18.07	195.07	66	346.07296759903	6.7712063952188	0.7271088473091	90	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	50.08	33.1	41.59	19.403288149893	0.0002	0.0102	7.37	7.3802	T	T	18.08	195.08	66	345.96897490327	6.7129357109713	0.72742363890137	90	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-23 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	28	108	47.95	32.87	40.41	19.751148520575	0.0007	0.0207	7.35	7.3707	T	T	15.95	201.95	66	346.19147411473	6.8376792217967	0.65662852768177	90	3	5	2	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-23 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	48.32	32.74	40.53	19.669111882704	0.0007	0.0207	7.35	7.3707	T	T	16.32	200.32	66	346.13901937403	6.8082470990373	0.66942481870127	90	3	5	2	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	48.62	34.06	41.34	19.012064181968	0	0.02	7.33	7.35	T	T	16.62	196.62	66	345.71850438007	6.5728223941678	0.67965767361399	90	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-23 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	49.82	31.77	40.795	18.257632998362	0	0.01	7.38	7.39	T	T	17.82	208.82	66	345.23479697074	6.3031702213557	0.71918103965708	90	4	5	2	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	49.85	31.77	40.81	18.232593976893	0	0.01	7.47	7.48	T	T	17.85	219.85	66	345.21872717654	6.2942328858298	0.72013822112865	90	4	5	2	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 16:01:13	FORECAST	2020	28	108	49.35	33.37	41.36	18.069816030608	0	0.01	7.43	7.44	T	T	17.35	219.35	66	345.11423299198	6.2361506997094	0.70398249275294	90	4	5	2	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	42.11	26.13	34.12	18.594998329071	0.0035	0.0135	7.42	7.4335	T	T	10.11	208.11	66	345.45121505095	6.4236647666479	0.44043283892509	90	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	28	108	42.23	26.18	34.205	18.534722098533	0.0035	0.0135	7.41	7.4235	T	T	10.23	211.23	66	345.41256177273	6.4021258417999	0.44492033276388	90	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	42.25	26.19	34.22	0	0.0035	0.0135	7.4	7.4135	T	T	10.25	211.25	66	333.24166505862	0	0.44566895108241	90	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	35.04	23.19	29.115	0	0.0035	0.0135	7.62	7.6335	T	T	3.04	197.04	66	333.24166505862	0	0.20622594313078	90	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	L
2019-10-22 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	28	108	42.75	28.15	35.45	23.566022137414	0.0104	0.0304	6.48	6.5104	T	F	10.75	214.75	66	348.61869548899	8.21555589541	0.4644404909105	90	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	42.78	28.16	35.47	23.522446406527	0.0102	0.0302	7.24	7.2702	T	T	10.78	219.78	66	348.59110291981	8.1997155362233	0.46556972835448	90	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	28	108	42.45	28.01	35.23	23.596821431621	0.0102	0.0302	7.55	7.5802	T	T	10.45	218.45	66	348.63819605433	8.2267532565367	0.45316535448705	90	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	37.36	29.7	33.53	23.045223924181	0.0009	0.0509	7.35	7.4009	T	T	5.36	216.36	66	348.28872113226	8.0263915687597	0.27432208142133	90	2	5	2	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:42	FORECAST	2020	28	108	30.22	28.38	29.3	24.077738355121	0.0009	0.0709	7.46	7.5309	T	T	-1.78	193.22	66	348.94249068269	8.4017459916418	0.10088056687487	90	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	28	108	29.98	28.38	29.18	0.12625806112673	0.0009	0.0709	7.74	7.8109	T	T	-2.02	190.98	66	333.32652618111	0.042085160917735	0.096916743168092	90	1	5	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	28	108	27.07	26.04	26.555	0.042087332076118	0.0009	0.0609	7.98	8.0409	T	T	-4.93	198.07	66	333.26995600502	0.014026443309377	0.05755639435515	90	1	5	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L