Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 17, 2019

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DAY 17 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/18/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.31°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.78°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.096 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.96 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.98 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.44 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.42 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 1 in SWE DAY: 77 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.34 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 97 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 75.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-18 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	17	97	34.30994	29.78006	32.045	0	0.95999999999998	1.98	2.44	4.42	T	F	2.30994	195.30994	77	344.07636079638	0	0.095521549529713	94	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	M
2019-10-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	31.29	31.29	31.29	2	0.0434	1.0634	2.44	3.5034	T	F	-0.71	192.29	76	344.40104721092	0.68880209442184	0.054530119955662	94	1	4	1	4	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-10-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	37.09	29.58	33.335	2.1711305216105	0.7566	1.7766	2.44	4.2166	T	F	5.09	198.09	76	344.5112120428	0.74797880750316	0.15002485214502	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	36.9	30.04	33.47	3.2511844798478	1.076	2.096	2.44	4.536	T	F	4.9	197.9	76	345.20539027605	1.1223264072253	0.14574653711273	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	34.06	30.08	32.07	3.6379828708521	1.0535	2.0735	2.44	4.5135	T	F	2.06	195.06	76	345.45353270599	1.2567540346597	0.091447629544897	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	17	97	35.24	30.71	32.975	4.0754444769189	1.2579	1.2579	2.44	3.6979	T	F	3.24	187.24	77	346.69029634651	1.4129170534468	0.11184978687032	94	1	4	1	4	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-10-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	37.92	29.72	33.82	3.782202938294	1.2084	1.8784	2.44	4.3184	T	F	5.92	191.92	77	346.50311724169	1.3105451081596	0.16968459242163	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-16 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	34.19	31.03	32.61	4.0278368344785	1.183	1.853	2.44	4.293	T	F	2.19	188.19	77	346.65991737534	1.3962895842417	0.093550263019926	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	34.11	30.82	32.465	5.0810385801981	1.444	2.114	2.44	4.554	T	F	2.11	188.11	77	347.3311196913	1.7648028192549	0.092252164841124	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	33.87	30.63	32.25	5.5167036195917	1.5639	2.4539	2.44	4.8939	T	F	1.87	189.87	77	347.60824314893	1.9176516531796	0.08843764924193	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-16 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	34.1	30.73	32.415	5.4403393849086	1.5231	2.2931	2.44	4.7331	T	F	2.1	191.1	77	347.55969056064	1.8908426731637	0.092090841482785	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	17	97	34.44	30.54	32.49	5.472482335184	1.5337	2.5437	2.44	4.9837	T	F	2.44	182.44	77	347.58012828367	1.9021261120934	0.097693413154737	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	37.54	30.01	33.775	4.6070860108213	1.3221	2.1321	2.44	4.5721	T	F	5.54	195.54	77	347.02929333035	1.5987938026474	0.16048770165573	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	37.61	30.32	33.965	4.9358221989528	1.403	2.253	2.44	4.693	T	F	5.61	196.61	77	347.23868041088	1.7139083871071	0.16215699469847	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-15 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	38.2	30.9	34.55	5.3882651024903	1.5339	2.6639	2.44	5.1039	T	F	6.2	196.2	77	347.52657618908	1.8725653226676	0.17667276104314	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	34.81	30.8	32.805	5.429899655229	1.4669	2.8169	2.44	5.2569	T	F	2.81	193.81	77	347.55305222033	1.8871781984249	0.10406894680276	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	38.1	30.81	34.455	5.1725134922166	1.4091	2.6491	2.44	5.0891	T	F	6.1	197.1	77	347.38933167473	1.7968760051396	0.17415642099479	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	17	97	33.48	31.11	32.295	6.1447112014853	1.4342	2.8642	2.44	5.3042	T	F	1.48	174.48	77	348.00717509565	2.1384035870075	0.08249081110792	94	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.59	39.63	44.11	0	1.519	2.749	2.45	5.199	T	F	16.59	224.59	77	344.07636079638	0	0.53352574904531	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.56	39.57	44.065	0	1.537	2.737	2.45	5.187	T	F	16.56	224.56	77	344.07636079638	0	0.53236383888666	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.88	39.33	42.605	0	1.774	2.654	2.45	5.104	T	F	13.88	219.88	77	344.07636079638	0	0.42863171680576	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.65	39.74	42.695	0	1.8731	2.7831	2.45	5.2331	T	F	13.65	221.65	77	344.07636079638	0	0.41985507378496	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.3	39.98	42.64	0	1.8153	2.7553	2.45	5.2053	T	F	13.3	219.3	77	344.07636079638	0	0.40657683879846	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	17	97	44.1	38.05	41.075	0	1.5458	2.7258	2.44	5.1658	T	F	12.1	210.1	77	344.07636079638	0	0.36194737099421	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	44.11	38.05	41.08	0	1.4323	3.0423	2.46	5.5023	T	T	12.11	230.11	77	344.07636079638	0	0.36231256065204	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	44.41	38.35	41.38	0	1.2766	2.9366	2.46	5.3966	T	T	12.41	234.41	77	344.07636079638	0	0.37332513630272	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.26	38.55	43.405	0	0.973	2.673	2.45	5.123	T	F	16.26	237.26	77	344.07636079638	0	0.52073119793616	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.29	38.56	43.425	0	0.973	2.673	2.45	5.123	T	F	16.29	238.29	77	344.07636079638	0	0.52189542148818	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	47.66	38.64	43.15	0	1.0176	2.6176	2.47	5.0876	T	F	15.66	235.66	77	344.07636079638	0	0.49742279141385	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-13 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	17	97	47.89	38.87	43.38	0	0.7901	2.0601	2.5	4.5601	T	F	15.89	219.89	77	344.07636079638	0	0.50636098001579	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	47.93	38.89	43.41	0	0.7901	2.1101	2.52	4.6301	T	F	15.93	235.93	77	344.07636079638	0	0.50791524776857	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-12 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	46.36	40.05	43.205	0	0.7499	1.9699	2.5	4.4699	T	F	14.36	236.36	77	344.07636079638	0	0.44705731260383	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.06	40.73	42.895	0	0.9075	2.2775	2.5	4.7775	T	F	13.06	235.06	77	344.07636079638	0	0.39753246653735	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.05	40.74	42.895	0	0.9075	2.2375	2.51	4.7475	T	F	13.05	235.05	77	344.07636079638	0	0.39715677379919	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	49.45	39.82	44.635	0	0.8265	1.9965	2.5	4.4965	T	F	17.45	235.45	77	344.07636079638	0	0.56667399090917	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	17	97	49.28	38.52	43.9	0	0.831	3.101	2.49	5.591	T	T	17.28	213.28	77	344.07636079638	0	0.56015100333683	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	49.31	38.54	43.925	0	0.831	3.101	2.49	5.591	T	T	17.31	241.31	77	344.07636079638	0	0.56130335803117	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.01	38.28	43.145	0	0.8032	3.1632	2.51	5.6732	T	T	16.01	241.01	77	344.07636079638	0	0.51102339919458	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.63	40.09	44.36	0	0.5907	2.1607	2.47	4.6307	T	F	16.63	245.63	77	344.07636079638	0	0.53507451654325	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	48.65	40.11	44.38	0	0.5907	2.1607	2.45	4.6107	T	F	16.65	241.65	77	344.07636079638	0	0.53584870256464	94	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.87	41.6	43.735	0	0.6504	2.2504	2.44	4.6904	T	F	13.87	241.87	77	344.07636079638	0	0.4282493559407	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-11 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.08	40.53	42.805	0	1.2136	2.7936	2.53	5.3236	T	F	13.08	222.08	77	344.07636079638	0	0.39828413682493	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-10 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	46.14	40.89	43.515	0	1.1833	2.7433	2.61	5.3533	T	F	14.14	246.14	77	344.07636079638	0	0.43859558286272	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	17	97	44.93	40.31	42.62	0	0.829	2.269	2.6	4.869	T	F	12.93	243.93	77	344.07636079638	0	0.39265599530284	94	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.3	41.16	43.23	0	0.7929	1.2929	2.58	3.8729	T	F	13.3	255.3	77	344.07636079638	0	0.40657683879846	94	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-10-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	17	97	45.32	41.95	43.635	0	0.6999	1.1999	2.58	3.7799	T	F	13.32	256.32	77	344.07636079638	0	0.40733286269394	94	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-10-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	17	97	47.85	45.63	46.74	0	0.5164	0.6464	2.53	3.1764	F	F	15.85	257.85	77	344.07636079638	0	0.50480661568988	94	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H