Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 18, 2019

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DAY 18 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/19/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.86°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.046 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 192 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.30 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.28 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.44 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 7 in SWE DAY: 76 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 2.40 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 98 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 75.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-19 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	18	98	31.92998	27.86	29.89499	0	1.3	3.28	2.44	5.72	T	T	-0.07002	191.92998	76	343.10999603722	0	0.046077447449634	91	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	L
2019-10-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	30.4	30.4	30.4	2	0.0327	2.0127	2.44	4.4527	T	F	-1.6	190.4	75	343.43591860735	0.6868718372147	0.032260809423154	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	L
2019-10-18 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.39	29.89	32.64	2.0243873056405	0.7705	2.7505	2.44	5.1905	T	F	3.39	195.39	75	343.45168058022	0.69527922226748	0.094619711526205	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-10-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.93	28.18	32.055	1.8202096790095	1.0166	2.9966	2.44	5.4366	T	T	3.93	195.93	75	343.31968661535	0.62491381657177	0.10474979522883	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.79	28.04	31.915	2.4173299739456	1.1383	3.1183	2.44	5.5583	T	T	3.79	195.79	75	343.70551223572	0.83084963693771	0.10205126718521	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	L
2019-10-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.32	28.03	31.675	5.7240913803209	1.4047	2.4647	2.44	4.9047	T	F	3.32	192.32	76	346.78763710265	1.9850441243411	0.093361146478502	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	L
2019-10-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.63	26.48	31.055	4.2296233016726	1.4571	3.2371	2.44	5.6771	T	T	3.63	198.63	76	345.83261594096	1.4627416908623	0.099029391235919	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	L
2019-10-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.64	27.51	31.575	6.1192008462959	1.583	3.363	2.44	5.803	T	T	3.64	198.64	76	347.03952154254	2.1236045339212	0.099216325808617	91	1	4	1	5	4	2	60	WET	L
2019-10-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	30.58	29.12	29.85	8.8456057270076	1.6816	3.4616	2.44	5.9016	T	T	-1.42	193.58	76	348.77074617085	3.0850885097416	0.033684302324213	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.62	29.33	32.475	10.234105328277	1.8324	3.9324	2.44	6.3724	T	T	3.62	198.62	76	349.64782493468	3.5783326681845	0.098842713576913	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	30.75	29	29.875	11.173595944019	1.8471	3.9171	2.44	6.3571	T	T	-1.25	190.75	76	350.23952436148	3.9134349288405	0.035075643007735	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.59	29.39	30.49	10.985524224013	1.7057	2.9657	2.44	5.4057	T	T	-0.41	183.59	76	350.12118815266	3.8462647937912	0.042656092117656	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.99	29.63	30.81	10.394797396904	1.6302	3.5102	2.44	5.9502	T	T	-0.010000000000002	188.99	76	349.74913033408	3.635571349566	0.04670367235795	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-16 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.88	30.12	31	9.9224062762798	1.4379	3.2879	2.44	5.7279	T	T	-0.12	184.88	76	349.45120199246	3.4673967999035	0.045561121813326	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	36.68	28.64	32.66	10.06447628264	1.2698	3.3798	2.44	5.8198	T	T	4.68	189.68	76	349.54084050878	3.5179454991146	0.12008489956798	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	35.89	28.51	32.2	10.619177307673	1.2605	3.7105	2.44	6.1505	T	T	3.89	190.89	76	349.89051741802	3.7155494427353	0.10397358478385	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.72	29.73	30.725	10.889979765419	1.2673	3.5573	2.44	5.9973	T	T	-0.28	187.72	76	350.06104916883	3.8121577421099	0.043939337088799	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	32.06	29.49	30.775	13.265309233583	1.8064	4.3464	2.44	6.7864	T	T	0.060000000000002	179.06	76	351.55184328976	4.6634439128747	0.047442602568384	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	36.59	28.7	32.645	11.662560537204	1.6859	3.7959	2.46	6.2559	T	T	4.59	197.59	76	350.54692033112	4.0882746794922	0.11816560384329	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.81	28.66	30.235	12.569924469039	1.6411	3.8711	2.46	6.3311	T	T	-0.19	193.81	76	351.1163396353	4.4135058690611	0.044845783062857	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.38	28.08	29.73	11.570047300224	1.2943	3.9343	2.46	6.3943	T	T	-0.62	192.38	76	350.48878957894	4.0551718736267	0.040647118566725	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.4	28.58	29.99	11.893590661817	1.3368	4.1368	2.46	6.5968	T	T	-0.6	190.4	76	350.69202862354	4.1709874368108	0.040835089420776	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	30.69	28.44	29.565	12.251577496723	1.4292	4.0692	2.45	6.5192	T	T	-1.31	192.69	76	350.91670934454	4.2992832594297	0.034579307097353	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	31.08	28.23	29.655	12.979753656604	1.3731	4.2231	2.45	6.6731	T	T	-0.92	170.08	76	351.37309940646	4.5607362718532	0.037910662762715	91	1	4	1	5	3	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	45.48	35.67	40.575	0	1.0239	3.7639	2.46	6.2239	T	T	13.48	235.48	76	343.10999603722	0	0.4080893043274	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	46.36	35.02	40.69	0	1.143	3.863	2.47	6.333	T	T	14.36	236.36	76	343.10999603722	0	0.44500702645952	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	45.64	35.43	40.535	0	1.3605	4.0005	2.46	6.4605	T	T	13.64	230.64	76	343.10999603722	0	0.41475121227109	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	45.67	35.45	40.56	0	1.3605	4.1305	2.46	6.5905	T	T	13.67	232.67	76	343.10999603722	0	0.41600311545886	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	45.89	35.17	40.53	0	1.3597	4.1097	2.46	6.5697	T	T	13.89	229.89	76	343.10999603722	0	0.42520899745387	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	40.97	36.52	38.745	0	1.9957	4.7057	2.46	7.1657	T	T	8.97	215.97	76	343.10999603722	0	0.23725858212177	91	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2019-10-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	40.95	36.54	38.745	0	1.9957	5.0257	2.47	7.4957	T	T	8.95	235.95	76	343.10999603722	0	0.23659772791373	91	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2019-10-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	41.13	34.73	37.93	0.59883528971561	1.9732	4.9032	2.47	7.3732	T	T	9.13	240.13	76	343.49724765408	0.20569827381544	0.24258168258856	91	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2019-10-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	43.34	37.79	40.565	0	1.7796	4.4296	2.47	6.8996	T	T	11.34	245.34	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32222500089415	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	43.35	37.81	40.58	0	1.7796	4.4396	2.46	6.8996	T	T	11.35	246.35	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32260892735014	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	43.53	36.8	40.165	0	1.56	4.17	2.48	6.65	T	T	11.53	244.53	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32955159901451	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-13 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	18	98	42.86	38.89	40.875	0	1.604	3.634	2.53	6.164	T	T	10.86	227.86	76	343.10999603722	0	0.30402552478014	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-12 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	42.86	38.91	40.885	0	1.604	3.684	2.55	6.234	T	T	10.86	243.86	76	343.10999603722	0	0.30402552478014	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-12 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	46.49	37.7	42.095	0	1.314	3.184	2.6	5.784	T	T	14.49	247.49	76	343.10999603722	0	0.45050956861899	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	44.3	39.1	41.7	0	1.012	3.172	2.62	5.792	T	T	12.3	244.3	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35989274687327	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	44.27	39.13	41.7	0	1.012	3.172	2.59	5.762	T	T	12.27	244.27	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35869242036796	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	46.78	37.33	42.055	0	1.0058	2.9258	2.58	5.5058	T	T	14.78	246.78	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46281725224394	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	47.53	38	42.765	0	0.9468	3.4168	3.12	6.5368	T	T	15.53	225.53	76	343.10999603722	0	0.49478403427574	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	47.55	38.01	42.78	0	0.7642	3.2342	3.12	6.3542	T	T	15.55	253.55	76	343.10999603722	0	0.49563785607342	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	47.63	37.63	42.63	0	0.5055	2.9655	3.21	6.1755	T	T	15.63	253.63	76	343.10999603722	0	0.49905330398021	91	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	18	98	46.25	42.46	44.355	0	0.8106	2.5706	2.87	5.4406	T	F	14.25	257.25	76	343.10999603722	0	0.44035924742097	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-11 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	18	98	46.28	42.49	44.385	0	0.4122	2.1722	2.85	5.0222	T	F	14.28	253.28	76	343.10999603722	0	0.44162603654787	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-11 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	18	98	42.65	41.62	42.135	0	0.05	1.99	2.75	4.74	T	F	10.65	249.65	76	343.10999603722	0	0.29620986286704	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH