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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 16, 2019

[ Tuesday, October 15, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 17, 2019 ]

DAY 16 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/17/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.385
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 96

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-17 04:00:12OBSERVATION2020169645.4299834.9100640.1700201.021.022.463.48TF13.42998195.4299878345.03906033777 00.3850081623557293 24145270DRYH
2019-10-17 00:00:13FORECAST2020169635.9135.9135.9100.0040.0042.462.464FF3.91185.9177344.0763607963800.121223259141249314115215DRYL
2019-10-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020169637.5933.635.5950.0664781303616550.67280.67282.463.1328FF5.59187.5977344.119216429370.0228764021297420.155265126166319314134236DRYL
2019-10-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020169639.9434.2737.10500.88660.88662.463.3466TF7.94189.9477344.0763607963800.212521889374619314135245DRYM
2019-10-16 04:00:11FORECAST2020169640.9333.9837.45500.77320.77322.463.2332FF8.93190.9377344.0763607963800.239920547185199314135245DRYM
2019-10-16 00:00:13FORECAST2020169644.2934.5239.40501.00761.00762.463.4676TF12.29182.2978345.0390603377700.345581352937559324145270DRYH
2019-10-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020169643.3734.5238.94500.79160.81162.463.2716FF11.37192.3778345.0390603377700.314918399282699324135252.5DRYMH
2019-10-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020169644.3134.4239.36500.82750.84752.463.3075FF12.31193.3178345.0390603377700.346260257120939324135252.5DRYMH
2019-10-15 12:00:12FORECAST2020169643.4334.1538.7901.10911.12912.463.5891TF11.43192.4378345.0390603377700.31688262239019324145270DRYH
2019-10-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020169642.8234.238.5101.32761.34762.463.8076TF10.82192.8278345.0390603377700.297161794381619324145270DRYH
2019-10-15 04:00:11FORECAST2020169642.9233.7638.3401.23181.24182.463.7018TF10.92192.9278345.0390603377700.300356120048969324145270DRYH
2019-10-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020169642.9633.6438.30.384177288295851.4161.4262.463.886TF10.96174.9678345.285684301590.132650917882360.301638176338089324144256DRYH
2019-10-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020169649.0942.9346.0101.22081.24082.463.7008TF17.09210.0978345.0390603377700.517751719074059334245290DRYVH
2019-10-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020169649.0742.8645.96501.17791.20792.463.6679TF17.07210.0778345.0390603377700.517018051131829334245290DRYVH
2019-10-14 12:00:12FORECAST2020169648.4542.4745.4600.87450.89452.463.3545TF16.45208.4578345.0390603377700.494258085573679324235260DRYH
2019-10-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020169648.4842.3145.39500.89930.91932.463.3793TF16.48210.4878345.0390603377700.495359540111799324235260DRYH
2019-10-14 04:00:12FORECAST2020169648.3242.2245.2700.92640.94642.463.4064TF16.32208.3278345.0390603377700.489485729516419324235260DRYH
2019-10-14 00:00:13FORECAST2020169648.4142.8645.63501.15771.18772.453.6377TF16.41200.4178345.0390603377700.492789549066179324245280DRYVH
2019-10-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020169647.9942.5845.28501.59761.61762.474.0876TF15.99219.9978345.0390603377700.4773796167216593242552100WETMH
2019-10-13 16:00:11FORECAST2020169651.7442.5847.1601.64581.66582.474.1358TF19.74223.7478345.0390603377700.6134856620781593342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020169649.0941.4345.2601.68271.70272.474.1727TF17.09223.0978345.0390603377700.5177517190740593342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020169649.0942.6345.8601.69011.70012.474.1701TF17.09224.0978345.0390603377700.5177517190740593342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-13 04:00:12FORECAST202016965240.9746.48501.591.62.494.09TF2022278345.0390603377700.6226111608228493342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-13 00:00:14FORECAST2020169651.6641.8846.7701.24321.27322.523.7932TF19.66205.6678345.0390603377700.610664882545699334245290DRYVH
2019-10-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020169651.6741.8946.7801.29431.33432.533.8643TF19.67221.6778345.0390603377700.611017802344149334245290DRYVH
2019-10-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020169651.0242.4146.71501.12371.22372.523.7437TF19.02224.0278345.0390603377700.58790032887299334245290DRYVH
2019-10-12 12:00:12FORECAST2020169650.7441.546.1201.25321.37322.523.8932TF18.74223.7478345.0390603377700.577842121231849334245290DRYVH
2019-10-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020169650.7641.5146.13501.25321.33322.533.8632TF18.76223.7678345.0390603377700.578562332873269334245290DRYVH
2019-10-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020169647.1841.4244.301.08691.16692.523.6869TF15.18220.1878345.0390603377700.447775738363929324245280DRYVH
2019-10-12 00:00:13FORECAST2020169649.2240.7644.9901.64272.27272.514.7827TF17.22198.2278345.0390603377700.5225189846724293341552100WETMH
2019-10-11 20:00:12FORECAST2020169649.2140.7744.9901.64272.27272.514.7827TF17.21226.2178345.0390603377700.5221523775969193342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020169653.8340.8947.3601.66262.36262.534.8926TF21.83226.8378345.0390603377700.6846641162568293342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020169651.0942.3346.7101.17411.57412.494.0641TF19.09231.0978345.0390603377700.5904061583022293342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020169651.0842.3446.7101.17411.57412.474.0441TF19.08227.0878345.0390603377700.5900484061073993342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020169649.1242.0445.5801.2871.5972.464.057TF17.12230.1278345.0390603377700.5188521075039793342552112.5WETMH
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020169647.642.4445.0201.37521.58522.544.1252TF15.6210.678345.0390603377700.4631001282998493242552100WETMH
2019-10-10 20:00:12FORECAST2020169647.9641.0944.52501.39871.56872.624.1887TF15.96233.9678345.0390603377700.476279927300693242552100WETMH
2019-10-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020169650.5741.1545.8601.21641.43642.624.0564TF18.57232.5778345.0390603377700.571710047762789334245290WETMH
2019-10-10 12:00:12FORECAST2020169655.6642.4549.05500.41560.50562.593.0956FF23.66243.6678345.0390603377700.741904789922859344235275DRYVH
2019-10-10 08:00:12FORECAST2020169655.6742.4449.05500.41560.50562.593.0956FF23.67244.6778345.0390603377700.74220215670969344235275DRYVH
2019-10-10 04:00:14FORECAST2020169658.0441.2249.6300.09180.13182.552.6818FF26.04244.0478345.0390603377700.807397143341129344225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 00:00:13FORECAST2020169652.3243.1247.7201.18671.26672.553.8167TF20.32229.3278345.0390603377700.633748803280639334245290DRYVH
2019-10-09 20:00:12FORECAST2020169652.3344.0748.200.80730.88732.543.4273TF20.33261.3378345.0390603377700.634095102028689334235267.5DRYH
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020169648.3143.9546.1300.58090.68092.563.2409FF16.31255.3178345.0390603377700.489118678835489324235260DRYH
2019-10-09 12:00:12FORECAST2020169646.2141.8844.04500.30420.33422.743.0742FF14.21240.2178345.0390603377700.412717162145339324225240DRYM
2019-10-09 08:00:12FORECAST2020169645.2241.6843.4500.07770.10772.752.8577FF13.22231.2278345.0390603377700.377641843195119324225240DRYM
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020169645.4244.3244.8700.03940.11942.742.8594FF13.42227.4278345.0390603377700.384657089131259324225240DRYM