Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 16, 2019

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DAY 16 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/17/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.43°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.91°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.17°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.385 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.48 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 78 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 96 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 70.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-17 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	16	96	45.42998	34.91006	40.17002	0	1.02	1.02	2.46	3.48	T	F	13.42998	195.42998	78	345.03906033777	0	0.38500816235572	93	2	4	1	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-10-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	35.91	35.91	35.91	0	0.004	0.004	2.46	2.464	F	F	3.91	185.91	77	344.07636079638	0	0.12122325914124	93	1	4	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2019-10-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	37.59	33.6	35.595	0.066478130361655	0.6728	0.6728	2.46	3.1328	F	F	5.59	187.59	77	344.11921642937	0.022876402129742	0.15526512616631	93	1	4	1	3	4	2	36	DRY	L
2019-10-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	39.94	34.27	37.105	0	0.8866	0.8866	2.46	3.3466	T	F	7.94	189.94	77	344.07636079638	0	0.21252188937461	93	1	4	1	3	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-16 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	40.93	33.98	37.455	0	0.7732	0.7732	2.46	3.2332	F	F	8.93	190.93	77	344.07636079638	0	0.23992054718519	93	1	4	1	3	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	44.29	34.52	39.405	0	1.0076	1.0076	2.46	3.4676	T	F	12.29	182.29	78	345.03906033777	0	0.34558135293755	93	2	4	1	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-10-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	43.37	34.52	38.945	0	0.7916	0.8116	2.46	3.2716	F	F	11.37	192.37	78	345.03906033777	0	0.31491839928269	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-10-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	44.31	34.42	39.365	0	0.8275	0.8475	2.46	3.3075	F	F	12.31	193.31	78	345.03906033777	0	0.34626025712093	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-10-15 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	43.43	34.15	38.79	0	1.1091	1.1291	2.46	3.5891	T	F	11.43	192.43	78	345.03906033777	0	0.3168826223901	93	2	4	1	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-10-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	42.82	34.2	38.51	0	1.3276	1.3476	2.46	3.8076	T	F	10.82	192.82	78	345.03906033777	0	0.29716179438161	93	2	4	1	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-10-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	42.92	33.76	38.34	0	1.2318	1.2418	2.46	3.7018	T	F	10.92	192.92	78	345.03906033777	0	0.30035612004896	93	2	4	1	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-10-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	42.96	33.64	38.3	0.38417728829585	1.416	1.426	2.46	3.886	T	F	10.96	174.96	78	345.28568430159	0.13265091788236	0.30163817633808	93	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	DRY	H
2019-10-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.09	42.93	46.01	0	1.2208	1.2408	2.46	3.7008	T	F	17.09	210.09	78	345.03906033777	0	0.51775171907405	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.07	42.86	45.965	0	1.1779	1.2079	2.46	3.6679	T	F	17.07	210.07	78	345.03906033777	0	0.51701805113182	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	48.45	42.47	45.46	0	0.8745	0.8945	2.46	3.3545	T	F	16.45	208.45	78	345.03906033777	0	0.49425808557367	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	48.48	42.31	45.395	0	0.8993	0.9193	2.46	3.3793	T	F	16.48	210.48	78	345.03906033777	0	0.49535954011179	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	48.32	42.22	45.27	0	0.9264	0.9464	2.46	3.4064	T	F	16.32	208.32	78	345.03906033777	0	0.48948572951641	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	48.41	42.86	45.635	0	1.1577	1.1877	2.45	3.6377	T	F	16.41	200.41	78	345.03906033777	0	0.49278954906617	93	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-10-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	47.99	42.58	45.285	0	1.5976	1.6176	2.47	4.0876	T	F	15.99	219.99	78	345.03906033777	0	0.47737961672165	93	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	51.74	42.58	47.16	0	1.6458	1.6658	2.47	4.1358	T	F	19.74	223.74	78	345.03906033777	0	0.61348566207815	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.09	41.43	45.26	0	1.6827	1.7027	2.47	4.1727	T	F	17.09	223.09	78	345.03906033777	0	0.51775171907405	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.09	42.63	45.86	0	1.6901	1.7001	2.47	4.1701	T	F	17.09	224.09	78	345.03906033777	0	0.51775171907405	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	52	40.97	46.485	0	1.59	1.6	2.49	4.09	T	F	20	222	78	345.03906033777	0	0.62261116082284	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-13 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	16	96	51.66	41.88	46.77	0	1.2432	1.2732	2.52	3.7932	T	F	19.66	205.66	78	345.03906033777	0	0.61066488254569	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	51.67	41.89	46.78	0	1.2943	1.3343	2.53	3.8643	T	F	19.67	221.67	78	345.03906033777	0	0.61101780234414	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	51.02	42.41	46.715	0	1.1237	1.2237	2.52	3.7437	T	F	19.02	224.02	78	345.03906033777	0	0.5879003288729	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	50.74	41.5	46.12	0	1.2532	1.3732	2.52	3.8932	T	F	18.74	223.74	78	345.03906033777	0	0.57784212123184	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	50.76	41.51	46.135	0	1.2532	1.3332	2.53	3.8632	T	F	18.76	223.76	78	345.03906033777	0	0.57856233287326	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	47.18	41.42	44.3	0	1.0869	1.1669	2.52	3.6869	T	F	15.18	220.18	78	345.03906033777	0	0.44777573836392	93	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.22	40.76	44.99	0	1.6427	2.2727	2.51	4.7827	T	F	17.22	198.22	78	345.03906033777	0	0.52251898467242	93	3	4	1	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.21	40.77	44.99	0	1.6427	2.2727	2.51	4.7827	T	F	17.21	226.21	78	345.03906033777	0	0.52215237759691	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	53.83	40.89	47.36	0	1.6626	2.3626	2.53	4.8926	T	F	21.83	226.83	78	345.03906033777	0	0.68466411625682	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	51.09	42.33	46.71	0	1.1741	1.5741	2.49	4.0641	T	F	19.09	231.09	78	345.03906033777	0	0.59040615830222	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	51.08	42.34	46.71	0	1.1741	1.5741	2.47	4.0441	T	F	19.08	227.08	78	345.03906033777	0	0.59004840610739	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	49.12	42.04	45.58	0	1.287	1.597	2.46	4.057	T	F	17.12	230.12	78	345.03906033777	0	0.51885210750397	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	47.6	42.44	45.02	0	1.3752	1.5852	2.54	4.1252	T	F	15.6	210.6	78	345.03906033777	0	0.46310012829984	93	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-10 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	47.96	41.09	44.525	0	1.3987	1.5687	2.62	4.1887	T	F	15.96	233.96	78	345.03906033777	0	0.4762799273006	93	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	50.57	41.15	45.86	0	1.2164	1.4364	2.62	4.0564	T	F	18.57	232.57	78	345.03906033777	0	0.57171004776278	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-10-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	55.66	42.45	49.055	0	0.4156	0.5056	2.59	3.0956	F	F	23.66	243.66	78	345.03906033777	0	0.74190478992285	93	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-10-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	55.67	42.44	49.055	0	0.4156	0.5056	2.59	3.0956	F	F	23.67	244.67	78	345.03906033777	0	0.7422021567096	93	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-10-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	16	96	58.04	41.22	49.63	0	0.0918	0.1318	2.55	2.6818	F	F	26.04	244.04	78	345.03906033777	0	0.80739714334112	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	16	96	52.32	43.12	47.72	0	1.1867	1.2667	2.55	3.8167	T	F	20.32	229.32	78	345.03906033777	0	0.63374880328063	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-09 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	52.33	44.07	48.2	0	0.8073	0.8873	2.54	3.4273	T	F	20.33	261.33	78	345.03906033777	0	0.63409510202868	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	16	96	48.31	43.95	46.13	0	0.5809	0.6809	2.56	3.2409	F	F	16.31	255.31	78	345.03906033777	0	0.48911867883548	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	46.21	41.88	44.045	0	0.3042	0.3342	2.74	3.0742	F	F	14.21	240.21	78	345.03906033777	0	0.41271716214533	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-09 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	45.22	41.68	43.45	0	0.0777	0.1077	2.75	2.8577	F	F	13.22	231.22	78	345.03906033777	0	0.37764184319511	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	16	96	45.42	44.32	44.87	0	0.0394	0.1194	2.74	2.8594	F	F	13.42	227.42	78	345.03906033777	0	0.38465708913125	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M