Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 15, 2019

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DAY 15 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/16/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.04°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.511 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 186 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.71 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 79 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 95 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-16 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	15	95	48.63992	43.03994	45.83993	0	0	0.01	2.7	2.71	F	F	16.63992	185.63992	79	345.99810856281	0	0.51108656030066	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	37.09	37.09	37.09	0	0.0013	0.0113	2.7	2.7113	F	F	5.09	174.09	78	345.03906033777	0	0.15399810416497	95	1	4	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2019-10-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	48.07	41.71	44.89	0	0.0214	0.0314	2.7	2.7314	F	F	16.07	185.07	78	345.03906033777	0	0.49047721325292	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.37	37.17	43.27	0	0.015	0.025	2.7	2.725	F	F	17.37	186.37	78	345.03906033777	0	0.53743688533167	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	48.98	31.69	40.335	0	0.0119	0.0219	2.7	2.7219	F	F	16.98	185.98	78	345.03906033777	0	0.52337390358402	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	46.37	35.82	41.095	0	0.0109	0.0209	2.7	2.7209	F	F	14.37	168.37	79	345.99810856281	0	0.42936735775713	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.78	41.31	47.545	0	0.0079	0.0279	2.7	2.7279	F	F	21.78	196.78	79	345.99810856281	0	0.6892657981519	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.98	41.63	47.805	0	0.0218	0.0418	2.7	2.7418	F	F	21.98	196.98	79	345.99810856281	0	0.69564029256113	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.34	43.16	48.25	0	0.0136	0.0336	2.7	2.7336	F	F	21.34	196.34	79	345.99810856281	0	0.67504257512954	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	54	42.78	48.39	0	0.0076	0.0276	2.7	2.7276	F	F	22	198	79	345.99810856281	0	0.69627453123635	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.18	43.01	48.095	0	0.0082	0.0282	2.7	2.7282	F	F	21.18	196.18	79	345.99810856281	0	0.66980516578472	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.4	40.79	47.095	0	0.0152	0.0252	2.7	2.7252	F	F	21.4	188.4	79	345.99810856281	0	0.67699779640888	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.46	42.34	47.9	0	0.0082	0.0382	2.7	2.7382	F	F	21.46	208.46	79	345.99810856281	0	0.67894814240822	95	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.17	40.69	46.93	0	0.0077	0.0377	2.7	2.7377	F	F	21.17	208.17	79	345.99810856281	0	0.66947670741835	95	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	55.2	41.72	48.46	0	0.0151	0.0351	2.7	2.7351	F	F	23.2	210.2	79	345.99810856281	0	0.73319708648405	95	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	55.51	41.77	48.64	0	0.0143	0.0343	2.7	2.7343	F	F	23.51	210.51	79	345.99810856281	0	0.74235346477431	95	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	56.96	39.91	48.435	0	0.0068	0.0468	2.7	2.7468	F	F	24.96	205.96	79	345.99810856281	0	0.78292118612646	95	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-13 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	15	95	54.98	39.72	47.35	0	0.0265	0.0965	2.7	2.7965	F	F	22.98	189.98	79	345.99810856281	0	0.72660083513894	95	4	4	1	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	53.83	41.63	47.73	0	0.031	0.101	2.72	2.821	F	F	21.83	205.83	79	345.99810856281	0	0.69086485328162	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	54.04	39.52	46.78	0	0.1049	0.1549	2.72	2.8749	F	F	22.04	209.04	79	345.99810856281	0	0.69754123719384	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	54.1	39.64	46.87	0	0.1156	0.1656	2.72	2.8856	F	F	22.1	209.1	79	345.99810856281	0	0.69943684481269	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	51.61	39.81	45.71	0	0.0844	0.1344	2.73	2.8644	F	F	19.61	208.61	79	345.99810856281	0	0.61678393968303	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	56.28	39.83	48.055	0	0.0838	0.1338	2.72	2.8538	F	F	24.28	209.28	79	345.99810856281	0	0.76437149602973	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.1	39.99	44.545	0	0.6272	0.6772	2.71	3.3872	F	F	17.1	185.1	79	345.99810856281	0	0.52770489594276	95	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.11	39.98	44.545	0	0.627	0.677	2.71	3.387	F	F	17.11	213.11	79	345.99810856281	0	0.52806567125405	95	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	46.12	40.01	43.065	0	0.7039	0.7639	2.72	3.4839	T	F	14.12	209.12	79	345.99810856281	0	0.42048663512037	95	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.92	38.71	44.315	0	0.4014	0.4314	2.71	3.1414	F	F	17.92	215.92	79	345.99810856281	0	0.55718599891115	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.93	40.02	44.975	0	0.4012	0.4112	2.71	3.1212	F	F	17.93	211.93	79	345.99810856281	0	0.55754391284497	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.95	40.28	45.115	0	0.3056	0.3156	2.7	3.0156	F	F	17.95	216.95	79	345.99810856281	0	0.5582595995511	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	48.92	38.31	43.615	0	0.2032	0.3032	2.7	3.0032	F	F	16.92	198.92	79	345.99810856281	0	0.52120733939799	95	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-10 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	51.21	38.64	44.925	0	0.1612	0.3312	2.71	3.0412	F	F	19.21	222.21	79	345.99810856281	0	0.60287008442194	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	47.5	38.87	43.185	0	0.2203	0.3803	2.71	3.0903	F	F	15.5	217.5	79	345.99810856281	0	0.46989037892596	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	52.63	38.44	45.535	0	0.0832	0.1932	2.74	2.9332	F	F	20.63	223.63	79	345.99810856281	0	0.65155197967144	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	52.63	38.44	45.535	0	0.0832	0.1832	2.75	2.9332	F	F	20.63	224.63	79	345.99810856281	0	0.65155197967144	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	15	95	54.42	37.63	46.025	0	0.0366	0.0966	2.74	2.8366	F	F	22.42	222.42	79	345.99810856281	0	0.70945495039536	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	57.82	39.16	48.49	0	0.0818	0.1518	2.73	2.8818	F	F	25.82	212.82	79	345.99810856281	0	0.80512994960308	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-09 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	57.83	39.16	48.495	0	0.0818	0.1418	2.73	2.8718	F	F	25.83	244.83	79	345.99810856281	0	0.80537980332718	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	58.82	38.55	48.685	0	0.0997	0.1697	2.74	2.9097	F	F	26.82	242.82	79	345.99810856281	0	0.82914485654795	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	52.83	36.39	44.61	0	0.0244	0.2844	2.74	3.0244	F	F	20.83	229.83	79	345.99810856281	0	0.65823291699117	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	52.17	38.02	45.095	0	0.0244	0.2844	2.75	3.0344	F	F	20.17	222.17	79	345.99810856281	0	0.63600934513839	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	49.35	37.28	43.315	0	0.0693	0.3293	2.74	3.0693	F	F	17.35	218.35	79	345.99810856281	0	0.53671669311329	95	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	15	95	58.65	42.75	50.7	0	0.0073	0.0773	2.16	2.2373	F	F	26.65	218.65	79	345.99810856281	0	0.8252013535859	95	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	58.66	42.74	50.7	0	0.0073	0.0773	2.51	2.5873	F	F	26.66	234.66	79	345.99810856281	0	0.82543490757379	95	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	15	95	59.38	42.52	50.95	0	0.0004	0.1704	2.53	2.7004	F	F	27.38	233.38	79	345.99810856281	0	0.84172989714612	95	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	47.11	40.18	43.645	0	0.0004	0.1304	2.66	2.7904	F	F	15.11	213.11	79	345.99810856281	0	0.45584755136981	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	43.23	40.28	41.755	0	0.0002	0.1302	2.74	2.8702	F	F	11.23	207.23	79	345.99810856281	0	0.32180974326554	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	15	95	41.76	41.38	41.57	0	0	0.08	2.59	2.67	F	F	9.76	212.76	79	345.99810856281	0	0.2756157001054	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L