Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 15, 2019

[ Monday, October 14, 2019 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 16, 2019 ]

DAY 15 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/16/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.511
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 186

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-16 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020159548.6399243.0399445.83993000.012.72.71FF16.63992185.6399279345.99810856281 00.5110865603006695 34115220DRYL
2019-10-16 00:00:13FORECAST2020159537.0937.0937.0900.00130.01132.72.7113FF5.09174.0978345.0390603377700.153998104164979514115215DRYL
2019-10-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020159548.0741.7144.8900.02140.03142.72.7314FF16.07185.0778345.0390603377700.490477213252929524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020159549.3737.1743.2700.0150.0252.72.725FF17.37186.3778345.0390603377700.537436885331679534115220DRYL
2019-10-15 04:00:11FORECAST2020159548.9831.6940.33500.01190.02192.72.7219FF16.98185.9878345.0390603377700.523373903584029534115220DRYL
2019-10-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020159546.3735.8241.09500.01090.02092.72.7209FF14.37168.3779345.9981085628100.429367357757139524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020159553.7841.3147.54500.00790.02792.72.7279FF21.78196.7879345.9981085628100.68926579815199534115220DRYL
2019-10-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020159553.9841.6347.80500.02180.04182.72.7418FF21.98196.9879345.9981085628100.695640292561139534115220DRYL
2019-10-14 12:00:12FORECAST2020159553.3443.1648.2500.01360.03362.72.7336FF21.34196.3479345.9981085628100.675042575129549534115220DRYL
2019-10-14 08:00:11FORECAST202015955442.7848.3900.00760.02762.72.7276FF2219879345.9981085628100.696274531236359534115220DRYL
2019-10-14 04:00:12FORECAST2020159553.1843.0148.09500.00820.02822.72.7282FF21.18196.1879345.9981085628100.669805165784729534115220DRYL
2019-10-14 00:00:13FORECAST2020159553.440.7947.09500.01520.02522.72.7252FF21.4188.479345.9981085628100.676997796408889534115220DRYL
2019-10-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020159553.4642.3447.900.00820.03822.72.7382FF21.46208.4679345.9981085628100.678948142408229534215222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 16:00:11FORECAST2020159553.1740.6946.9300.00770.03772.72.7377FF21.17208.1779345.9981085628100.669476707418359534215222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020159555.241.7248.4600.01510.03512.72.7351FF23.2210.279345.9981085628100.733197086484059544215225DRYL
2019-10-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020159555.5141.7748.6400.01430.03432.72.7343FF23.51210.5179345.9981085628100.742353464774319544215225DRYL
2019-10-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020159556.9639.9148.43500.00680.04682.72.7468FF24.96205.9679345.9981085628100.782921186126469544215225DRYL
2019-10-13 00:00:14FORECAST2020159554.9839.7247.3500.02650.09652.72.7965FF22.98189.9879345.9981085628100.726600835138949544125245DRYM
2019-10-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020159553.8341.6347.7300.0310.1012.722.821FF21.83205.8379345.9981085628100.690864853281629534225245DRYM
2019-10-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020159554.0439.5246.7800.10490.15492.722.8749FF22.04209.0479345.9981085628100.697541237193849534225245DRYM
2019-10-12 12:00:12FORECAST2020159554.139.6446.8700.11560.16562.722.8856FF22.1209.179345.9981085628100.699436844812699544225250DRYMH
2019-10-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020159551.6139.8145.7100.08440.13442.732.8644FF19.61208.6179345.9981085628100.616783939683039534225245DRYM
2019-10-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020159556.2839.8348.05500.08380.13382.722.8538FF24.28209.2879345.9981085628100.764371496029739544225250DRYMH
2019-10-12 00:00:13FORECAST2020159549.139.9944.54500.62720.67722.713.3872FF17.1185.179345.9981085628100.527704895942769534135260DRYH
2019-10-11 20:00:12FORECAST2020159549.1139.9844.54500.6270.6772.713.387FF17.11213.1179345.9981085628100.528065671254059534235267.5DRYH
2019-10-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020159546.1240.0143.06500.70390.76392.723.4839TF14.12209.1279345.9981085628100.420486635120379524235260DRYH
2019-10-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020159549.9238.7144.31500.40140.43142.713.1414FF17.92215.9279345.9981085628100.557185998911159534225245DRYM
2019-10-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020159549.9340.0244.97500.40120.41122.713.1212FF17.93211.9379345.9981085628100.557543912844979534225245DRYM
2019-10-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020159549.9540.2845.11500.30560.31562.73.0156FF17.95216.9579345.9981085628100.55825959955119534225245DRYM
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020159548.9238.3143.61500.20320.30322.73.0032FF16.92198.9279345.9981085628100.521207339397999534125240DRYM
2019-10-10 20:00:12FORECAST2020159551.2138.6444.92500.16120.33122.713.0412FF19.21222.2179345.9981085628100.602870084421949534225245DRYM
2019-10-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020159547.538.8743.18500.22030.38032.713.0903FF15.5217.579345.9981085628100.469890378925969524225240DRYM
2019-10-10 12:00:12FORECAST2020159552.6338.4445.53500.08320.19322.742.9332FF20.63223.6379345.9981085628100.651551979671449534225245DRYM
2019-10-10 08:00:12FORECAST2020159552.6338.4445.53500.08320.18322.752.9332FF20.63224.6379345.9981085628100.651551979671449534225245DRYM
2019-10-10 04:00:14FORECAST2020159554.4237.6346.02500.03660.09662.742.8366FF22.42222.4279345.9981085628100.709454950395369544225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 00:00:13FORECAST2020159557.8239.1648.4900.08180.15182.732.8818FF25.82212.8279345.9981085628100.805129949603089544225250DRYMH
2019-10-09 20:00:12FORECAST2020159557.8339.1648.49500.08180.14182.732.8718FF25.83244.8379345.9981085628100.805379803327189544225250DRYMH
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020159558.8238.5548.68500.09970.16972.742.9097FF26.82242.8279345.9981085628100.829144856547959544225250DRYMH
2019-10-09 12:00:12FORECAST2020159552.8336.3944.6100.02440.28442.743.0244FF20.83229.8379345.9981085628100.658232916991179534225245DRYM
2019-10-09 08:00:12FORECAST2020159552.1738.0245.09500.02440.28442.753.0344FF20.17222.1779345.9981085628100.636009345138399534225245DRYM
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020159549.3537.2843.31500.06930.32932.743.0693FF17.35218.3579345.9981085628100.536716693113299534225245DRYM
2019-10-09 00:00:13FORECAST2020159558.6542.7550.700.00730.07732.162.2373FF26.65218.6579345.9981085628100.82520135358599544215225DRYL
2019-10-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020159558.6642.7450.700.00730.07732.512.5873FF26.66234.6679345.9981085628100.825434907573799544215225DRYL
2019-10-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020159559.3842.5250.9500.00040.17042.532.7004FF27.38233.3879345.9981085628100.841729897146129544225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 12:00:12FORECAST2020159547.1140.1843.64500.00040.13042.662.7904FF15.11213.1179345.9981085628100.455847551369819524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 08:00:12FORECAST2020159543.2340.2841.75500.00020.13022.742.8702FF11.23207.2379345.9981085628100.321809743265549524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020159541.7641.3841.57000.082.592.67FF9.76212.7679345.9981085628100.27561570010549524215220DRYL