Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 14, 2019

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DAY 14 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/15/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.88°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.86°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.87°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.518 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 178 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.78 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 80 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.95 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 94 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-15 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	14	94	48.88004	30.86006	39.87005	0	0	0.01	2.78	2.79	F	F	16.88004	177.88004	80	346.95351932015	0	0.51756519839457	93	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	14	94	33.91	33.91	33.91	0	0	0.01	2.78	2.79	F	F	1.91	162.91	79	345.99810856281	0	0.074621212382662	93	1	4	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2019-10-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.36	38.92	47.14	0	0.0066	0.0166	2.78	2.7966	F	F	23.36	184.36	79	345.99810856281	0	0.75397589392622	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.74	33.88	44.81	0	0.0086	0.0186	2.78	2.7986	F	F	23.74	184.74	79	345.99810856281	0	0.76570307498752	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.29	33.53	44.41	0	0.0141	0.0241	2.78	2.8041	F	F	23.29	184.29	79	345.99810856281	0	0.75178183822446	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.05	33.61	44.33	0	0.0082	0.0082	2.78	2.7882	F	F	23.05	176.05	80	346.95351932015	0	0.74418094967818	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	56.15	36.23	46.19	0	0.0092	0.0292	2.78	2.8092	F	F	24.15	196.15	80	346.95351932015	0	0.77800183991255	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	56.29	37.85	47.07	0	0.0092	0.0292	2.78	2.8092	F	F	24.29	196.29	80	346.95351932015	0	0.78211560273908	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.72	38.3	47.01	0	0.0046	0.0246	2.78	2.8046	F	F	23.72	195.72	80	346.95351932015	0	0.7650936563619	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.7	37.94	46.82	0	0.0049	0.0249	2.78	2.8049	F	F	23.7	195.7	80	346.95351932015	0	0.76448336421415	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.36	38.18	46.77	0	0.0044	0.0444	2.78	2.8244	F	F	23.36	190.36	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75397589392622	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.4	38.59	46.995	0	0.0043	0.0743	2.78	2.8543	F	F	23.4	176.4	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75522496004072	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.39	37.85	46.62	0	0.0051	0.0851	2.78	2.8651	F	F	23.39	193.39	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75491301341322	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.34	37.64	46.49	0	0.0038	0.0738	2.78	2.8538	F	F	23.34	196.34	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75335008287818	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.22	35.43	45.325	0	0.0028	0.0728	2.78	2.8528	F	F	23.22	196.22	80	346.95351932015	0	0.74957740718252	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.27	36.55	45.91	0	0.0008	0.0808	2.78	2.8608	F	F	23.27	198.27	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75115305700215	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.29	36.81	46.05	0	0.0018	0.0718	2.78	2.8518	F	F	23.29	194.29	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75178183822446	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.29	36.38	45.835	0	0.0027	0.0627	2.78	2.8427	F	F	23.29	177.29	80	346.95351932015	0	0.75178183822446	93	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.72	36.79	45.755	0	0.0037	0.0637	2.78	2.8437	F	F	22.72	204.72	80	346.95351932015	0	0.73353500565787	93	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.65	36.08	45.365	0	0.0038	0.0838	2.78	2.8638	F	F	22.65	203.65	80	346.95351932015	0	0.73124834117092	93	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.15	35.12	45.135	0	0.0023	0.0423	2.78	2.8223	F	F	23.15	207.15	80	346.95351932015	0	0.74736265827997	93	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	50.03	35.77	42.9	0	0.0023	0.0123	2.79	2.8023	F	F	18.03	203.03	80	346.95351932015	0	0.56283078444964	93	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.71	33.51	44.61	0	0.0009	0.0109	2.78	2.7909	F	F	23.71	207.71	80	346.95351932015	0	0.76478861940676	93	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.74	34.78	44.76	0	0.0113	0.1013	2.78	2.8813	F	F	22.74	190.74	80	346.95351932015	0	0.73418652832242	93	4	4	1	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-10 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.33	34.66	44.495	0	0.0135	0.1835	2.78	2.9635	F	F	22.33	212.33	80	346.95351932015	0	0.72067123745998	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	53.71	34.19	43.95	0	0.0033	0.1733	2.78	2.9533	F	F	21.71	210.71	80	346.95351932015	0	0.6996210898633	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	53.83	34.38	44.105	0	0.0102	0.1502	2.78	2.9302	F	F	21.83	211.83	80	346.95351932015	0	0.70375080726091	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	53.83	34.38	44.105	0	0.0102	0.1402	2.79	2.9302	F	F	21.83	212.83	80	346.95351932015	0	0.70375080726091	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	14	94	53.87	32.05	42.96	0	0.0026	0.0926	2.79	2.8826	F	F	21.87	208.87	80	346.95351932015	0	0.70512157565578	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	14	94	56.27	34.49	45.38	0	0.0014	0.1014	2.78	2.8814	F	F	24.27	196.27	80	346.95351932015	0	0.78153062298377	93	4	4	1	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	56.27	34.49	45.38	0	0.0014	0.0814	2.79	2.8714	F	F	24.27	228.27	80	346.95351932015	0	0.78153062298377	93	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	56.69	35.06	45.875	0	0.0015	0.1115	2.78	2.8915	F	F	24.69	224.69	80	346.95351932015	0	0.79362449690609	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	53.01	33.15	43.08	0	0.0141	0.3041	2.78	3.0841	F	F	21.01	218.01	80	346.95351932015	0	0.67503118464387	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	51.92	33.46	42.69	0	0.0141	0.3141	2.78	3.0941	F	F	19.92	210.92	80	346.95351932015	0	0.63521187561077	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	51.71	35.4	43.555	0	0.0143	0.3043	2.78	3.0843	F	F	19.71	209.71	80	346.95351932015	0	0.62735324919359	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.7	39.03	47.365	0	0.0019	0.1119	2.2	2.3119	F	F	23.7	200.7	80	346.95351932015	0	0.76448336421415	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.7	39.04	47.37	0	0.0019	0.1119	2.55	2.6619	F	F	23.7	216.7	80	346.95351932015	0	0.76448336421415	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	55.98	39.98	47.98	0	0.0047	0.2347	2.55	2.7847	F	F	23.98	214.98	80	346.95351932015	0	0.77294755759019	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.75	37.63	46.19	0	0.0014	0.3214	2.55	2.8714	F	F	22.75	206.75	80	346.95351932015	0	0.73451198700122	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.94	37.82	46.38	0	0.0014	0.3214	2.63	2.9514	F	F	22.94	204.94	80	346.95351932015	0	0.74065709817629	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.27	36.08	45.175	0	0.0015	0.1115	2.64	2.7515	F	F	22.27	212.27	80	346.95351932015	0	0.71866577122325	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.19	38.17	46.18	0	0.005	0.135	1.81	1.945	F	F	22.19	215.19	80	346.95351932015	0	0.71598106562219	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-07 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	54.21	38.18	46.195	0	0.005	0.135	2.74	2.875	F	F	22.21	237.21	80	346.95351932015	0	0.71665338860438	93	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-10-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	53.64	38.95	46.295	0	0.005	0.105	2.64	2.745	F	F	21.64	240.64	80	346.95351932015	0	0.69720015069675	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	14	94	44.04	37.48	40.76	0	0.0002	0.2502	2.7	2.9502	F	F	12.04	218.04	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33133868331058	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	40.35	37.77	39.06	0	0	0.25	2.68	2.93	F	F	8.35	209.35	80	346.95351932015	0	0.21115505476676	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-10-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	14	94	40.39	39.34	39.865	0	0.0004	0.1004	2.79	2.8904	F	F	8.39	225.39	80	346.95351932015	0	0.21230484630661	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L