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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 14, 2019

[ Sunday, October 13, 2019 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 15, 2019 ]

DAY 14 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/15/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.518
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 178

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 80
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 94

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-15 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020149448.8800430.8600639.87005000.012.782.79FF16.88004177.8800480346.95351932015 00.5175651983945793 34115220DRYL
2019-10-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020149433.9133.9133.91000.012.782.79FF1.91162.9179345.9981085628100.0746212123826629314115215DRYL
2019-10-14 12:00:11FORECAST2020149455.3638.9247.1400.00660.01662.782.7966FF23.36184.3679345.9981085628100.753975893926229344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020149455.7433.8844.8100.00860.01862.782.7986FF23.74184.7479345.9981085628100.765703074987529344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020149455.2933.5344.4100.01410.02412.782.8041FF23.29184.2979345.9981085628100.751781838224469344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-14 00:00:13FORECAST2020149455.0533.6144.3300.00820.00822.782.7882FF23.05176.0580346.9535193201500.744180949678189344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020149456.1536.2346.1900.00920.02922.782.8092FF24.15196.1580346.9535193201500.778001839912559344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 16:00:11FORECAST2020149456.2937.8547.0700.00920.02922.782.8092FF24.29196.2980346.9535193201500.782115602739089344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020149455.7238.347.0100.00460.02462.782.8046FF23.72195.7280346.9535193201500.76509365636199344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020149455.737.9446.8200.00490.02492.782.8049FF23.7195.780346.9535193201500.764483364214159344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020149455.3638.1846.7700.00440.04442.782.8244FF23.36190.3680346.9535193201500.753975893926229344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 00:00:14FORECAST2020149455.438.5946.99500.00430.07432.782.8543FF23.4176.480346.9535193201500.755224960040729344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020149455.3937.8546.6200.00510.08512.782.8651FF23.39193.3980346.9535193201500.754913013413229344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020149455.3437.6446.4900.00380.07382.782.8538FF23.34196.3480346.9535193201500.753350082878189344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 12:00:12FORECAST2020149455.2235.4345.32500.00280.07282.782.8528FF23.22196.2280346.9535193201500.749577407182529344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020149455.2736.5545.9100.00080.08082.782.8608FF23.27198.2780346.9535193201500.751153057002159344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020149455.2936.8146.0500.00180.07182.782.8518FF23.29194.2980346.9535193201500.751781838224469344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 00:00:13FORECAST2020149455.2936.3845.83500.00270.06272.782.8427FF23.29177.2980346.9535193201500.751781838224469344115222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 20:00:12FORECAST2020149454.7236.7945.75500.00370.06372.782.8437FF22.72204.7280346.9535193201500.733535005657879344215225DRYL
2019-10-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020149454.6536.0845.36500.00380.08382.782.8638FF22.65203.6580346.9535193201500.731248341170929344215225DRYL
2019-10-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020149455.1535.1245.13500.00230.04232.782.8223FF23.15207.1580346.9535193201500.747362658279979344215225DRYL
2019-10-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020149450.0335.7742.900.00230.01232.792.8023FF18.03203.0380346.9535193201500.562830784449649334215222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020149455.7133.5144.6100.00090.01092.782.7909FF23.71207.7180346.9535193201500.764788619406769344215225DRYL
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020149454.7434.7844.7600.01130.10132.782.8813FF22.74190.7480346.9535193201500.734186528322429344125245DRYM
2019-10-10 20:00:12FORECAST2020149454.3334.6644.49500.01350.18352.782.9635FF22.33212.3380346.9535193201500.720671237459989344225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020149453.7134.1943.9500.00330.17332.782.9533FF21.71210.7180346.9535193201500.69962108986339344225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020149453.8334.3844.10500.01020.15022.782.9302FF21.83211.8380346.9535193201500.703750807260919344225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 08:00:12FORECAST2020149453.8334.3844.10500.01020.14022.792.9302FF21.83212.8380346.9535193201500.703750807260919344225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 04:00:14FORECAST2020149453.8732.0542.9600.00260.09262.792.8826FF21.87208.8780346.9535193201500.705121575655789344225250DRYMH
2019-10-10 00:00:13FORECAST2020149456.2734.4945.3800.00140.10142.782.8814FF24.27196.2780346.9535193201500.781530622983779344125245DRYM
2019-10-09 20:00:12FORECAST2020149456.2734.4945.3800.00140.08142.792.8714FF24.27228.2780346.9535193201500.781530622983779344215225DRYL
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020149456.6935.0645.87500.00150.11152.782.8915FF24.69224.6980346.9535193201500.793624496906099344225250DRYMH
2019-10-09 12:00:12FORECAST2020149453.0133.1543.0800.01410.30412.783.0841FF21.01218.0180346.9535193201500.675031184643879334225245DRYM
2019-10-09 08:00:12FORECAST2020149451.9233.4642.6900.01410.31412.783.0941FF19.92210.9280346.9535193201500.635211875610779334225245DRYM
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020149451.7135.443.55500.01430.30432.783.0843FF19.71209.7180346.9535193201500.627353249193599334225245DRYM
2019-10-09 00:00:13FORECAST2020149455.739.0347.36500.00190.11192.22.3119FF23.7200.780346.9535193201500.764483364214159344225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020149455.739.0447.3700.00190.11192.552.6619FF23.7216.780346.9535193201500.764483364214159344225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020149455.9839.9847.9800.00470.23472.552.7847FF23.98214.9880346.9535193201500.772947557590199344225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020149454.7537.6346.1900.00140.32142.552.8714FF22.75206.7580346.9535193201500.734511987001229344225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 08:00:12FORECAST2020149454.9437.8246.3800.00140.32142.632.9514FF22.94204.9480346.9535193201500.740657098176299344225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020149454.2736.0845.17500.00150.11152.642.7515FF22.27212.2780346.9535193201500.718665771223259344225250DRYMH
2019-10-08 00:00:16FORECAST2020149454.1938.1746.1800.0050.1351.811.945FF22.19215.1980346.9535193201500.715981065622199344225250DRYMH
2019-10-07 20:00:12FORECAST2020149454.2138.1846.19500.0050.1352.742.875FF22.21237.2180346.9535193201500.716653388604389344225250DRYMH
2019-10-07 16:00:11FORECAST2020149453.6438.9546.29500.0050.1052.642.745FF21.64240.6480346.9535193201500.697200150696759334225245DRYM
2019-10-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020149444.0437.4840.7600.00020.25022.72.9502FF12.04218.0480346.9535193201500.331338683310589324225240DRYM
2019-10-07 08:00:12FORECAST2020149440.3537.7739.06000.252.682.93FF8.35209.3580346.9535193201500.211155054766769314225235DRYL
2019-10-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020149440.3939.3439.86500.00040.10042.792.8904FF8.39225.3980346.9535193201500.212304846306619314225235DRYL