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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 13, 2019

[ Saturday, October 12, 2019 | Index | Today | Monday, October 14, 2019 ]

DAY 13 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/14/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.205
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 178

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 347.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-14 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020139340.6431.3399435.9899700.0100000000000480.0100000000000483.513.52FF8.64177.6481347.90530640596 00.2049241371557695 14115215DRYL
2019-10-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020139332.8832.8832.8800.00140.00143.513.5114FF0.88169.8880346.9535193201500.0565285880717159514115215DRYL
2019-10-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020139351.9438.7645.3500.01640.01643.513.5264FF19.94188.9480346.9535193201500.610854935132119534115220DRYL
2019-10-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020139351.8735.2743.5700.020.023.513.53FF19.87188.8780346.9535193201500.608226184182349534115220DRYL
2019-10-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020139347.0536.5541.800.03610.03613.513.5461FF15.05184.0580346.9535193201500.421948130143449524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-13 00:00:14FORECAST2020139349.6737.8443.75500.06830.06833.513.5783FF17.67169.6781347.9053064059600.523699393960829534115220DRYL
2019-10-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020139347.0139.5743.2900.05990.07993.513.5899FF15.01187.0181347.9053064059600.420417327956169524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020139349.5641.2545.40500.05430.07433.513.5843FF17.56189.5681347.9053064059600.519411908627559534115220DRYL
2019-10-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020139350.4741.6946.0800.05070.07073.513.5807FF18.47190.4781347.9053064059600.554767638905769534115220DRYL
2019-10-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020139351.4242.3746.89500.05380.08383.513.5938FF19.42192.4281347.9053064059600.591213871053629534115220DRYL
2019-10-12 04:00:11FORECAST2020139351.1842.4446.8100.05310.07313.513.5831FF19.18188.1881347.9053064059600.582067650832049534115220DRYL
2019-10-12 00:00:13FORECAST2020139346.0141.6443.82500.05440.06443.513.5744FF14.01171.0181347.9053064059600.382595584148739524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-11 20:00:12FORECAST2020139348.9341.4545.1900.04940.05943.513.5694FF16.93198.9381347.9053064059600.494828097254829524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020139348.7440.9744.85500.05840.07843.513.5884FF16.74197.7481347.9053064059600.487413520032819524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020139351.8241.0446.4300.03290.04293.513.5529FF19.82200.8281347.9053064059600.606345468209959534215222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020139351.4240.8746.14500.00990.01993.513.5299FF19.42202.4281347.9053064059600.591213871053629534215222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020139351.8140.0845.94500.00830.00833.513.5183FF19.81200.8181347.9053064059600.605969025668529534215222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020139344.5839.9942.28500.08660.08663.513.5966FF12.58184.5881347.9053064059600.330478904889439524115217.5DRYL
2019-10-10 20:00:12FORECAST2020139344.2639.5341.89500.15630.16633.513.6763TF12.26207.2681347.9053064059600.31921229371539524225240DRYM
2019-10-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020139343.9239.6341.77500.16450.17453.513.6845TF11.92205.9281347.9053064059600.307421861468289524225240DRYM
2019-10-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020139344.0439.5941.81500.09880.13883.513.6488FF12.04207.0481347.9053064059600.311561361729189524225240DRYM
2019-10-10 08:00:12FORECAST2020139343.9340.3542.1400.08650.12653.523.6465FF11.93207.9381347.9053064059600.30776589513399524225240DRYM
2019-10-10 04:00:14FORECAST2020139344.4838.7241.600.05740.08743.523.6074FF12.48204.4881347.9053064059600.326940946905089524215220DRYL
2019-10-10 00:00:13FORECAST2020139344.7739.9242.34500.06930.09933.513.6093FF12.77188.7781347.9053064059600.337242687599769524125235DRYL
2019-10-09 20:00:11FORECAST2020139348.2439.9244.0800.06060.08063.523.6006FF16.24221.2481347.9053064059600.467928892334839524215220DRYL
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020139345.4239.0642.2400.07210.11213.513.6221FF13.42217.4281347.9053064059600.360770589181959524225240DRYM
2019-10-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020139345.0338.3541.6900.25050.29053.513.8005TF13.03214.0381347.9053064059600.346583863855439524225240DRYM
2019-10-09 08:00:12FORECAST2020139344.2238.3341.27500.25050.30053.513.8105TF12.22208.2281347.9053064059600.317815353208999524225240DRYM
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020139342.6938.0140.3500.24950.28953.513.7995TF10.69206.6981347.9053064059600.266467728898819524225240DRYM
2019-10-09 00:00:13FORECAST2020139348.4139.3243.86500.06820.10822.933.0382FF16.41194.4181347.9053064059600.474547396990319524125235DRYL
2019-10-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020139348.4139.3243.86500.06820.10823.283.3882FF16.41210.4181347.9053064059600.474547396990319524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020139348.5939.1543.8700.17280.23283.283.5128FF16.59207.5981347.9053064059600.481562851008999524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020139348.0938.5343.3100.12830.31833.283.5983TF16.09201.0981347.9053064059600.462096328373919524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 08:00:12FORECAST2020139348.2938.6643.47500.12830.31833.363.6783TF16.29199.2981347.9053064059600.469874673752779524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020139344.3439.2841.8100.08230.11233.373.4823FF12.34207.3481347.9053064059600.32201386670979524225240DRYM
2019-10-08 00:00:16FORECAST2020139349.0139.8144.4100.07720.12722.542.6672FF17.01210.0181347.9053064059600.49795070712379524225240DRYM
2019-10-07 20:00:12FORECAST2020139349.0139.8144.4100.07720.12723.473.5972FF17.01232.0181347.9053064059600.49795070712379524225240DRYM
2019-10-07 16:00:11FORECAST2020139348.9539.5144.2300.07710.09713.373.4671FF16.95235.9581347.9053064059600.49560872748829524225240DRYM
2019-10-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020139347.5437.1642.3500.10630.24633.433.6763TF15.54222.5481347.9053064059600.440789316370969524225240DRYM
2019-10-07 08:00:12FORECAST2020139347.5437.1742.35500.10630.24633.413.6563TF15.54217.5481347.9053064059600.440789316370969524225240DRYM
2019-10-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020139347.3838.4842.9300.08170.10173.523.6217FF15.38234.3881347.9053064059600.434620185371319524225240DRYM
2019-10-07 00:00:14FORECAST2020139348.4737.7343.100.02210.03213.413.4421FF16.47212.4781347.9053064059600.476885112705519524215220DRYL
2019-10-06 20:00:12FORECAST2020139348.4737.7443.10500.01540.02543.483.5054FF16.47233.4781347.9053064059600.476885112705519524215220DRYL
2019-10-06 16:00:11FORECAST2020139349.4537.7643.60500.00510.01513.523.5351FF17.45232.4581347.9053064059600.515122176480489534215222.5DRYL
2019-10-06 12:00:12FORECAST2020139343.8440.0441.9400.02140.04143.53.5414FF11.84212.8481347.9053064059600.304675703671199524215220DRYL
2019-10-06 08:00:12FORECAST2020139343.340.541.900.02020.04023.453.4902FF11.3216.381347.9053064059600.286431675521879524215220DRYL
2019-10-06 04:00:13FORECAST2020139342.141.5341.81500.01390.04393.413.4539FF10.1219.181347.9053064059600.247850755619439514215217.5DRYL