Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 13, 2019

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DAY 13 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/14/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.34°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.99°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.205 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 178 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.51 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.52 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 81 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 347.91 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 93 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-14 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	13	93	40.64	31.33994	35.98997	0	0.010000000000048	0.010000000000048	3.51	3.52	F	F	8.64	177.64	81	347.90530640596	0	0.20492413715576	95	1	4	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2019-10-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	32.88	32.88	32.88	0	0.0014	0.0014	3.51	3.5114	F	F	0.88	169.88	80	346.95351932015	0	0.056528588071715	95	1	4	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2019-10-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.94	38.76	45.35	0	0.0164	0.0164	3.51	3.5264	F	F	19.94	188.94	80	346.95351932015	0	0.61085493513211	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.87	35.27	43.57	0	0.02	0.02	3.51	3.53	F	F	19.87	188.87	80	346.95351932015	0	0.60822618418234	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	47.05	36.55	41.8	0	0.0361	0.0361	3.51	3.5461	F	F	15.05	184.05	80	346.95351932015	0	0.42194813014344	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-13 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	13	93	49.67	37.84	43.755	0	0.0683	0.0683	3.51	3.5783	F	F	17.67	169.67	81	347.90530640596	0	0.52369939396082	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	47.01	39.57	43.29	0	0.0599	0.0799	3.51	3.5899	F	F	15.01	187.01	81	347.90530640596	0	0.42041732795616	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	49.56	41.25	45.405	0	0.0543	0.0743	3.51	3.5843	F	F	17.56	189.56	81	347.90530640596	0	0.51941190862755	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	50.47	41.69	46.08	0	0.0507	0.0707	3.51	3.5807	F	F	18.47	190.47	81	347.90530640596	0	0.55476763890576	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.42	42.37	46.895	0	0.0538	0.0838	3.51	3.5938	F	F	19.42	192.42	81	347.90530640596	0	0.59121387105362	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.18	42.44	46.81	0	0.0531	0.0731	3.51	3.5831	F	F	19.18	188.18	81	347.90530640596	0	0.58206765083204	95	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	13	93	46.01	41.64	43.825	0	0.0544	0.0644	3.51	3.5744	F	F	14.01	171.01	81	347.90530640596	0	0.38259558414873	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.93	41.45	45.19	0	0.0494	0.0594	3.51	3.5694	F	F	16.93	198.93	81	347.90530640596	0	0.49482809725482	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.74	40.97	44.855	0	0.0584	0.0784	3.51	3.5884	F	F	16.74	197.74	81	347.90530640596	0	0.48741352003281	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.82	41.04	46.43	0	0.0329	0.0429	3.51	3.5529	F	F	19.82	200.82	81	347.90530640596	0	0.60634546820995	95	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.42	40.87	46.145	0	0.0099	0.0199	3.51	3.5299	F	F	19.42	202.42	81	347.90530640596	0	0.59121387105362	95	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	51.81	40.08	45.945	0	0.0083	0.0083	3.51	3.5183	F	F	19.81	200.81	81	347.90530640596	0	0.60596902566852	95	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.58	39.99	42.285	0	0.0866	0.0866	3.51	3.5966	F	F	12.58	184.58	81	347.90530640596	0	0.33047890488943	95	2	4	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-10 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.26	39.53	41.895	0	0.1563	0.1663	3.51	3.6763	T	F	12.26	207.26	81	347.90530640596	0	0.3192122937153	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	43.92	39.63	41.775	0	0.1645	0.1745	3.51	3.6845	T	F	11.92	205.92	81	347.90530640596	0	0.30742186146828	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.04	39.59	41.815	0	0.0988	0.1388	3.51	3.6488	F	F	12.04	207.04	81	347.90530640596	0	0.31156136172918	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	43.93	40.35	42.14	0	0.0865	0.1265	3.52	3.6465	F	F	11.93	207.93	81	347.90530640596	0	0.3077658951339	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.48	38.72	41.6	0	0.0574	0.0874	3.52	3.6074	F	F	12.48	204.48	81	347.90530640596	0	0.32694094690508	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.77	39.92	42.345	0	0.0693	0.0993	3.51	3.6093	F	F	12.77	188.77	81	347.90530640596	0	0.33724268759976	95	2	4	1	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-10-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.24	39.92	44.08	0	0.0606	0.0806	3.52	3.6006	F	F	16.24	221.24	81	347.90530640596	0	0.46792889233483	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	45.42	39.06	42.24	0	0.0721	0.1121	3.51	3.6221	F	F	13.42	217.42	81	347.90530640596	0	0.36077058918195	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	45.03	38.35	41.69	0	0.2505	0.2905	3.51	3.8005	T	F	13.03	214.03	81	347.90530640596	0	0.34658386385543	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-09 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.22	38.33	41.275	0	0.2505	0.3005	3.51	3.8105	T	F	12.22	208.22	81	347.90530640596	0	0.31781535320899	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	42.69	38.01	40.35	0	0.2495	0.2895	3.51	3.7995	T	F	10.69	206.69	81	347.90530640596	0	0.26646772889881	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.41	39.32	43.865	0	0.0682	0.1082	2.93	3.0382	F	F	16.41	194.41	81	347.90530640596	0	0.47454739699031	95	2	4	1	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-10-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.41	39.32	43.865	0	0.0682	0.1082	3.28	3.3882	F	F	16.41	210.41	81	347.90530640596	0	0.47454739699031	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.59	39.15	43.87	0	0.1728	0.2328	3.28	3.5128	F	F	16.59	207.59	81	347.90530640596	0	0.48156285100899	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.09	38.53	43.31	0	0.1283	0.3183	3.28	3.5983	T	F	16.09	201.09	81	347.90530640596	0	0.46209632837391	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.29	38.66	43.475	0	0.1283	0.3183	3.36	3.6783	T	F	16.29	199.29	81	347.90530640596	0	0.46987467375277	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	44.34	39.28	41.81	0	0.0823	0.1123	3.37	3.4823	F	F	12.34	207.34	81	347.90530640596	0	0.3220138667097	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	13	93	49.01	39.81	44.41	0	0.0772	0.1272	2.54	2.6672	F	F	17.01	210.01	81	347.90530640596	0	0.4979507071237	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	49.01	39.81	44.41	0	0.0772	0.1272	3.47	3.5972	F	F	17.01	232.01	81	347.90530640596	0	0.4979507071237	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.95	39.51	44.23	0	0.0771	0.0971	3.37	3.4671	F	F	16.95	235.95	81	347.90530640596	0	0.4956087274882	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	47.54	37.16	42.35	0	0.1063	0.2463	3.43	3.6763	T	F	15.54	222.54	81	347.90530640596	0	0.44078931637096	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	47.54	37.17	42.355	0	0.1063	0.2463	3.41	3.6563	T	F	15.54	217.54	81	347.90530640596	0	0.44078931637096	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	47.38	38.48	42.93	0	0.0817	0.1017	3.52	3.6217	F	F	15.38	234.38	81	347.90530640596	0	0.43462018537131	95	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-07 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.47	37.73	43.1	0	0.0221	0.0321	3.41	3.4421	F	F	16.47	212.47	81	347.90530640596	0	0.47688511270551	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-06 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	48.47	37.74	43.105	0	0.0154	0.0254	3.48	3.5054	F	F	16.47	233.47	81	347.90530640596	0	0.47688511270551	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	13	93	49.45	37.76	43.605	0	0.0051	0.0151	3.52	3.5351	F	F	17.45	232.45	81	347.90530640596	0	0.51512217648048	95	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	43.84	40.04	41.94	0	0.0214	0.0414	3.5	3.5414	F	F	11.84	212.84	81	347.90530640596	0	0.30467570367119	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-06 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	13	93	43.3	40.5	41.9	0	0.0202	0.0402	3.45	3.4902	F	F	11.3	216.3	81	347.90530640596	0	0.28643167552187	95	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-06 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	13	93	42.1	41.53	41.815	0	0.0139	0.0439	3.41	3.4539	F	F	10.1	219.1	81	347.90530640596	0	0.24785075561943	95	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L