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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 11, 2019

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DAY 11 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/12/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 49.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 34.10°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 41.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.573 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 189 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.59 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 4 in SWE DAY: 83 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.80 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 1.40 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 91 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 4 D₂: 1 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-12 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	11	91	49.11998	34.10006	41.61002	0	0.01	3.59	3.6	F	F	17.11998	189.11998	83	349.7980644861	0.57295820563085	89	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	11	91	32.8	32.8	32.8	0	0.01	3.59	3.6	F	F	0.8	172.8	82	348.85348356404	0.087980081432877	89	1	4	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2019-10-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.21	39.25	48.73	0.0043	0.0143	3.59	3.6043	F	F	26.21	198.21	82	348.85348356404	0.85082033733327	89	5	4	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	59.02	30.35	44.685	0.0054	0.0154	3.59	3.6054	F	F	27.02	199.02	82	348.85348356404	0.86785240202304	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	56.75	30.69	43.72	0.0026	0.0126	3.59	3.6026	F	F	24.75	196.75	82	348.85348356404	0.81657800081951	89	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.64	31.32	44.98	0.0043	0.0143	3.59	3.6043	F	F	26.64	187.64	83	349.7980644861	0.86003604239848	89	5	4	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	57.59	35.92	46.755	0.0023	0.0123	3.59	3.6023	F	F	25.59	210.59	83	349.7980644861	0.83683616887553	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	57.55	36.04	46.795	0.0024	0.0124	3.59	3.6024	F	F	25.55	210.55	83	349.7980644861	0.83590568756809	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.58	35.63	47.105	0	0.01	3.59	3.6	F	F	26.58	211.58	83	349.7980644861	0.85877381699702	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.54	35.78	47.16	0.0007	0.0207	3.59	3.6107	F	F	26.54	212.54	83	349.7980644861	0.8579280710427	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.24	35.45	46.845	0.0009	0.0209	3.59	3.6109	F	F	26.24	211.24	83	349.7980644861	0.85147611264603	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.38	32.65	43.515	0.0003	0.0103	3.59	3.6003	F	F	22.38	197.38	83	349.7980644861	0.75148923104798	89	4	4	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.35	32.87	45.61	0	0.02	3.59	3.61	F	F	26.35	224.35	83	349.7980644861	0.85386415554865	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	57.69	33.12	45.405	0.0002	0.0102	3.59	3.6002	F	F	25.69	223.69	83	349.7980644861	0.83914737856498	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.12	34.92	46.52	0.0019	0.0119	3.59	3.6019	F	F	26.12	224.12	83	349.7980644861	0.84884145679651	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	56.63	38.78	47.705	0.0017	0.0117	3.59	3.6017	F	F	24.63	218.63	83	349.7980644861	0.81356133937981	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.29	36.67	45.98	0.001	0.011	3.59	3.601	F	F	23.29	218.29	83	349.7980644861	0.77782933110129	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	11	91	53.83	35.37	44.6	0.0015	0.0115	3.01	3.0215	F	F	21.83	199.83	83	349.7980644861	0.73479857295626	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	53.92	37.31	45.615	0.0026	0.0126	3.36	3.3726	F	F	21.92	215.92	83	349.7980644861	0.73756816009891	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	53.6	35.13	44.365	0.0028	0.0128	3.36	3.3728	F	F	21.6	214.6	83	349.7980644861	0.72765403357897	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	49.4	35.19	42.295	0	0.01	3.36	3.37	F	F	17.4	210.4	83	349.7980644861	0.58327363204746	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	48.24	36.52	42.38	0	0	3.45	3.45	F	F	16.24	208.24	83	349.7980644861	0.54024766877963	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-10-08 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.68	35.73	45.705	0	0	3.46	3.46	F	F	23.68	216.68	83	349.7980644861	0.78861185483663	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.21	35.5	44.855	0.0018	0.0118	2.62	2.6318	F	F	22.21	214.21	83	349.7980644861	0.74639068398248	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-07 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.22	35.51	44.865	0.0018	0.0118	3.55	3.5618	F	F	22.22	236.22	83	349.7980644861	0.74669210983014	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.72	34.31	45.015	0.0018	0.0118	3.45	3.4618	F	F	23.72	238.72	83	349.7980644861	0.78970018668413	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.54	36.1	45.32	0.0024	0.0124	3.51	3.5224	F	F	22.54	230.54	83	349.7980644861	0.75623758519489	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-07 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.55	36.11	45.33	0.0024	0.0124	3.49	3.5024	F	F	22.55	225.55	83	349.7980644861	0.75653272500246	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.75	36.15	45.45	0.0025	0.0125	3.6	3.6125	F	F	22.75	236.75	83	349.7980644861	0.76239484472054	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.53	34.2	44.365	0.0014	0.0114	3.49	3.5014	F	F	22.53	217.53	83	349.7980644861	0.75594225266456	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	54.54	34.21	44.375	0.0014	0.0114	3.56	3.5714	F	F	22.54	238.54	83	349.7980644861	0.75623758519489	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	53.58	34.52	44.05	0.0014	0.0114	3.6	3.6114	F	F	21.58	236.58	83	349.7980644861	0.72702828566694	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.48	36.5	45.99	0.0021	0.0121	3.58	3.5921	F	F	23.48	227.48	83	349.7980644861	0.78312102869411	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-06 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.49	36.51	46	0.0021	0.0121	3.53	3.5421	F	F	23.49	231.49	83	349.7980644861	0.78339750964551	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-06 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.06	35.5	45.28	0.0021	0.0121	3.49	3.5021	F	F	23.06	233.06	83	349.7980644861	0.77132626975668	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.3	34.04	44.67	0.0015	0.0015	3.52	3.5215	F	F	23.3	233.3	83	349.7980644861	0.77810966238639	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.32	34.04	44.68	0.0015	0.0015	3.45	3.4515	F	F	23.32	251.32	83	349.7980644861	0.77866971960096	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-05 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.96	36.22	46.09	0.0015	0.0015	3.49	3.4915	F	F	23.96	254.96	83	349.7980644861	0.79616088795187	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-05 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	59.51	36.93	48.22	0.0011	0.0011	3.56	3.5611	F	F	27.51	260.51	83	349.7980644861	0.87748090100059	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-05 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	59.53	38.68	49.105	0.0008	0.0008	3.6	3.6008	F	F	27.53	266.53	83	349.7980644861	0.87786319492617	89	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-10-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	58.1	37.44	47.77	0.0008	0.0008	3.53	3.5308	F	F	26.1	264.1	83	349.7980644861	0.84839935114819	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-05 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.14	36.3	45.72	0.0356	0.0556	3.84	3.8956	T	F	23.14	261.14	83	349.7980644861	0.77360022251054	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	55.17	36.3	45.735	0.0066	0.0266	4.09	4.1166	T	F	23.17	280.17	83	349.7980644861	0.77444965688454	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-10-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	56.47	37.21	46.84	0.001	0.021	3.9	3.921	T	F	24.47	278.47	83	349.7980644861	0.80949173974441	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-10-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	46.34	37.14	41.74	0.0002	0.0202	3.23	3.2502	F	F	14.34	266.34	83	349.7980644861	0.4689803473267	89	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	11	91	36.23	34.71	35.47	0	0.02	3.54	3.56	F	F	4.23	252.23	83	349.7980644861	0.15152690510978	89	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-10-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	11	91	38.48	37.65	38.065	0.0002	0.0202	3.52	3.5402	F	F	6.48	261.48	83	349.7980644861	0.20669583709711	89	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L