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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 11, 2019

[ Thursday, October 10, 2019 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 12, 2019 ]

DAY 11 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/12/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.573
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 83
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-12 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020119149.1199834.1000641.61002000.013.593.6FF17.11998189.1199883349.7980644861 00.5729582056308589 34115220DRYL
2019-10-12 00:00:13FORECAST2020119132.832.832.8000.013.593.6FF0.8172.882348.8534835640400.0879800814328778914115215DRYL
2019-10-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020119158.2139.2548.7300.00430.01433.593.6043FF26.21198.2182348.8534835640400.850820337333278954115225DRYL
2019-10-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020119159.0230.3544.68500.00540.01543.593.6054FF27.02199.0282348.8534835640400.867852402023048954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020119156.7530.6943.7200.00260.01263.593.6026FF24.75196.7582348.8534835640400.816578000819518944115222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020119158.6431.3244.9800.00430.01433.593.6043FF26.64187.6483349.798064486100.860036042398488954115225DRYL
2019-10-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020119157.5935.9246.75500.00230.01233.593.6023FF25.59210.5983349.798064486100.836836168875538944215225DRYL
2019-10-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020119157.5536.0446.79500.00240.01243.593.6024FF25.55210.5583349.798064486100.835905687568098944215225DRYL
2019-10-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020119158.5835.6347.105000.013.593.6FF26.58211.5883349.798064486100.858773816997028954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020119158.5435.7847.1600.00070.02073.593.6107FF26.54212.5483349.798064486100.85792807104278954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-10 04:00:14FORECAST2020119158.2435.4546.84500.00090.02093.593.6109FF26.24211.2483349.798064486100.851476112646038954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020119154.3832.6543.51500.00030.01033.593.6003FF22.38197.3883349.798064486100.751489231047988944115222.5DRYL
2019-10-09 20:00:11FORECAST2020119158.3532.8745.61000.023.593.61FF26.35224.3583349.798064486100.853864155548658954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020119157.6933.1245.40500.00020.01023.593.6002FF25.69223.6983349.798064486100.839147378564988944215225DRYL
2019-10-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020119158.1234.9246.5200.00190.01193.593.6019FF26.12224.1283349.798064486100.848841456796518944215225DRYL
2019-10-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020119156.6338.7847.70500.00170.01173.593.6017FF24.63218.6383349.798064486100.813561339379818944215225DRYL
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020119155.2936.6745.9800.0010.0113.593.601FF23.29218.2983349.798064486100.777829331101298944215225DRYL
2019-10-09 00:00:13FORECAST2020119153.8335.3744.600.00150.01153.013.0215FF21.83199.8383349.798064486100.734798572956268944215225DRYL
2019-10-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020119153.9237.3145.61500.00260.01263.363.3726FF21.92215.9283349.798064486100.737568160098918944215225DRYL
2019-10-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020119153.635.1344.36500.00280.01283.363.3728FF21.6214.683349.798064486100.727654033578978944215225DRYL
2019-10-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020119149.435.1942.295000.013.363.37FF17.4210.483349.798064486100.583273632047468934215222.5DRYL
2019-10-08 08:00:12FORECAST2020119148.2436.5242.380003.453.45FF16.24208.2483349.798064486100.540247668779638934215222.5DRYL
2019-10-08 04:00:11FORECAST2020119155.6835.7345.7050003.463.46FF23.68216.6883349.798064486100.788611854836638944215225DRYL
2019-10-08 00:00:16FORECAST2020119154.2135.544.85500.00180.01182.622.6318FF22.21214.2183349.798064486100.746390683982488944215225DRYL
2019-10-07 20:00:12FORECAST2020119154.2235.5144.86500.00180.01183.553.5618FF22.22236.2283349.798064486100.746692109830148944215225DRYL
2019-10-07 16:00:11FORECAST2020119155.7234.3145.01500.00180.01183.453.4618FF23.72238.7283349.798064486100.789700186684138944215225DRYL
2019-10-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020119154.5436.145.3200.00240.01243.513.5224FF22.54230.5483349.798064486100.756237585194898944215225DRYL
2019-10-07 08:00:12FORECAST2020119154.5536.1145.3300.00240.01243.493.5024FF22.55225.5583349.798064486100.756532725002468944215225DRYL
2019-10-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020119154.7536.1545.4500.00250.01253.63.6125FF22.75236.7583349.798064486100.762394844720548944215225DRYL
2019-10-07 00:00:13FORECAST2020119154.5334.244.36500.00140.01143.493.5014FF22.53217.5383349.798064486100.755942252664568944215225DRYL
2019-10-06 20:00:11FORECAST2020119154.5434.2144.37500.00140.01143.563.5714FF22.54238.5483349.798064486100.756237585194898944215225DRYL
2019-10-06 16:00:11FORECAST2020119153.5834.5244.0500.00140.01143.63.6114FF21.58236.5883349.798064486100.727028285666948944215225DRYL
2019-10-06 12:00:12FORECAST2020119155.4836.545.9900.00210.01213.583.5921FF23.48227.4883349.798064486100.783121028694118944215225DRYL
2019-10-06 08:00:12FORECAST2020119155.4936.514600.00210.01213.533.5421FF23.49231.4983349.798064486100.783397509645518944215225DRYL
2019-10-06 04:00:13FORECAST2020119155.0635.545.2800.00210.01213.493.5021FF23.06233.0683349.798064486100.771326269756688944215225DRYL
2019-10-06 00:00:13FORECAST2020119155.334.0444.6700.00150.00153.523.5215FF23.3233.383349.798064486100.778109662386398944215225DRYL
2019-10-05 20:00:11FORECAST2020119155.3234.0444.6800.00150.00153.453.4515FF23.32251.3283349.798064486100.778669719600968944215225DRYL
2019-10-05 16:00:12FORECAST2020119155.9636.2246.0900.00150.00153.493.4915FF23.96254.9683349.798064486100.796160887951878944215225DRYL
2019-10-05 12:00:12FORECAST2020119159.5136.9348.2200.00110.00113.563.5611FF27.51260.5183349.798064486100.877480901000598954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-05 08:00:12FORECAST2020119159.5338.6849.10500.00080.00083.63.6008FF27.53266.5383349.798064486100.877863194926178954215227.5DRYL
2019-10-05 04:00:12FORECAST2020119158.137.4447.7700.00080.00083.533.5308FF26.1264.183349.798064486100.848399351148198944215225DRYL
2019-10-05 00:00:14FORECAST2020119155.1436.345.7200.03560.05563.843.8956TF23.14261.1483349.798064486100.773600222510548944215225DRYL
2019-10-04 20:00:11FORECAST2020119155.1736.345.73500.00660.02664.094.1166TF23.17280.1783349.798064486100.774449656884548944215225WETMH
2019-10-04 16:00:12FORECAST2020119156.4737.2146.8400.0010.0213.93.921TF24.47278.4783349.798064486100.809491739744418944215225DRYL
2019-10-04 12:00:12FORECAST2020119146.3437.1441.7400.00020.02023.233.2502FF14.34266.3483349.798064486100.46898034732678924215220DRYL
2019-10-04 08:00:11FORECAST2020119136.2334.7135.47000.023.543.56FF4.23252.2383349.798064486100.151526905109788914215217.5DRYL
2019-10-04 04:00:12FORECAST2020119138.4837.6538.06500.00020.02023.523.5402FF6.48261.4883349.798064486100.206695837097118914215217.5DRYL