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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 10, 2019

[ Wednesday, October 9, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, October 11, 2019 ]

DAY 10 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.242
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 183

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-11 04:00:12OBSERVATION2020109041.3623.9300632.64503000.593.363.95TF9.36183.3684350.7390628119 00.2418707190219792 14135245DRYM
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020109030.530.530.5000.593.363.95TF-1.5172.583349.798064486100.0470700544065499214135245DRYM
2019-10-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020109054.2529.8242.03500.00060.59063.363.9506TF22.25196.2583349.798064486100.674941994823029234135260DRYH
2019-10-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020109054.5225.9540.23500.00770.59773.363.9577TF22.52196.5283349.798064486100.683593568167549234135260DRYH
2019-10-10 04:00:13FORECAST2020109054.1824.6939.43500.00970.59973.363.9597TF22.18196.1883349.798064486100.672683275073289234135260DRYH
2019-10-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020109054.3725.3139.8400.00670.58673.363.9467TF22.37186.3784350.739062811900.678799142353259234135260DRYH
2019-10-09 20:00:11FORECAST2020109053.7330.3442.03500.0060.5963.363.956TF21.73208.7384350.739062811900.658014760006619234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020109054.4431.9243.1800.00410.59413.363.9541TF22.44209.4484350.739062811900.681040311120679234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020109054.3231.5842.9500.00150.59153.363.9515TF22.32209.3284350.739062811900.67719430814489234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020109052.3632.7342.54500.00130.59133.363.9513TF20.36205.3684350.739062811900.611952659378939234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020109052.1432.5242.3300.00060.59063.363.9506TF20.14206.1484350.739062811900.604386753490389234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-09 00:00:13FORECAST2020109051.3232.0541.68500.00140.01143.363.3714FF19.32189.3284350.739062811900.575860479231539234115220DRYL
2019-10-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020109051.4731.7441.60500.00220.36223.363.7222TF19.47205.4784350.739062811900.581113214859089234225245DRYM
2019-10-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020109051.2331.5541.3900.00080.36083.363.7208TF19.23204.2384350.739062811900.572702295090289234225245DRYM
2019-10-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020109050.9631.1241.0400.00020.36023.363.7202TF18.96203.9684350.739062811900.563200544330329234225245DRYM
2019-10-08 08:00:12FORECAST2020109051.4531.0841.26500.00020.44023.363.8002TF19.45203.4584350.739062811900.580413663392859234225245DRYM
2019-10-08 04:00:11FORECAST2020109051.4431.6941.56500.00060.45063.363.8106TF19.44204.4484350.739062811900.58006379220469234225245DRYM
2019-10-08 00:00:16FORECAST2020109051.4931.941.69500.00090.63092.352.9809FF19.49203.4984350.739062811900.581812509988449234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-07 20:00:12FORECAST2020109051.3931.5741.48000.763.153.91TF19.39225.3984350.739062811900.578313492465879234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-07 16:00:11FORECAST2020109051.7131.7841.74500.00080.66083.153.8108TF19.71225.7184350.739062811900.589487226317699234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020109045.2330.6637.94500.00050.72053.153.8705TF13.23219.2384350.739062811900.361729114589339224235260DRYH
2019-10-07 08:00:12FORECAST2020109044.3529.9237.13500.00040.64043.213.8504TF12.35214.3584350.739062811900.332646557116129224235260DRYH
2019-10-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020109050.228.9639.5800.00040.58043.383.9604TF18.2225.284350.739062811900.536276104899279234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-07 00:00:13FORECAST2020109050.643040.3200.00240.45243.43.8524TF18.64205.6484350.739062811900.551892250492279234225245DRYM
2019-10-06 20:00:11FORECAST2020109050.6429.7440.1900.00150.45153.473.9215TF18.64226.6484350.739062811900.551892250492279234225245DRYM
2019-10-06 16:00:11FORECAST2020109050.2129.9540.0800.00130.47133.493.9613TF18.21226.2184350.739062811900.536631731396339234225245DRYM
2019-10-06 12:00:12FORECAST2020109048.9830.6239.800.00060.34063.63.9406TF16.98214.9884350.739062811900.492758189565129224225240DRYM
2019-10-06 08:00:11FORECAST2020109048.9930.6239.80500.00060.33063.563.8906TF16.99218.9984350.739062811900.493115252010859224225240DRYM
2019-10-06 04:00:12FORECAST2020109049.5530.1939.8700.00060.36063.493.8506TF17.55220.5584350.739062811900.513111181289889234225245DRYM
2019-10-06 00:00:13FORECAST2020109049.1131.2640.18500.00240.52243.353.8724TF17.11221.1184350.739062811900.497400349815549224235260DRYH
2019-10-05 20:00:11FORECAST2020109049.1231.2640.1900.00240.52243.283.8024TF17.12239.1284350.739062811900.497757461658869224235260DRYH
2019-10-05 16:00:12FORECAST2020109050.231.8541.02500.00240.55243.293.8424TF18.2242.284350.739062811900.536276104899279234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-05 12:00:12FORECAST2020109051.8232.4442.1300.00190.55193.363.9119TF19.82243.8284350.739062811900.593311969414759234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-05 08:00:12FORECAST2020109053.6733.4743.5700.00160.44163.513.9516TF21.67249.6784350.739062811900.656040211665329234225245DRYM
2019-10-05 04:00:12FORECAST2020109053.4233.2943.35500.00160.52163.363.8816TF21.42249.4284350.739062811900.647767596631149234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-05 00:00:13FORECAST2020109053.1932.5542.87001.272.944.21TF21.19249.1984350.739062811900.640094457492889234245290WETMH
2019-10-04 20:00:11FORECAST2020109053.2232.5542.885001.263.24.46TF21.22268.2284350.739062811900.641098586446539234245290WETMH
2019-10-04 16:00:12FORECAST2020109052.4332.1342.28001.053.224.27TF20.43265.4384350.739062811900.614351261730059234245290WETMH
2019-10-04 12:00:12FORECAST2020109051.8930.5241.20500.00210.63212.973.6021TF19.89262.8984350.739062811900.595741296126699234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-04 08:00:11FORECAST2020109052.9431.2642.100.00210.93212.983.9121TF20.94258.9484350.739062811900.631689701658799234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-04 04:00:12FORECAST2020109053.8831.4442.6600.00231.13232.763.8923TF21.88265.8884350.739062811900.662932172844039234245290DRYVH
2019-10-04 00:00:13FORECAST2020109053.5233.6643.5900.00180.88182.593.4718TF21.52257.5284350.739062811900.651085299007679234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-03 20:00:12FORECAST2020109053.5533.6543.600.00130.88132.763.6413TF21.55278.5584350.739062811900.65207837657829234235267.5DRYH
2019-10-03 16:00:11FORECAST2020109054.9634.2844.6200.00081.29082.764.0508TF22.96281.9684350.739062811900.697478061167629234245290WETMH
2019-10-03 12:00:12FORECAST2020109044.2636.4140.33500.00041.00043.24.2004TF12.26278.2684350.739062811900.329724644272069224245280WETMH
2019-10-03 08:00:11FORECAST2020109038.736.437.55000.842.973.81TF6.7255.784350.739062811900.173993379372399214235252.5DRYMH
2019-10-03 04:00:13FORECAST2020109038.2737.237.735000.482.883.36FF6.27260.2784350.739062811900.164280032206829214225235DRYL