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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 10, 2019

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DAY 10 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 41.36°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 23.93°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 32.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.242 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 183 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.59 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.36 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.95 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 84 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.74 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 2.10 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 90 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 1 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-11 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	10	90	41.36	23.93006	32.64503	0	0.59	3.36	3.95	T	F	9.36	183.36	84	350.7390628119	0.24187071902197	92	1	4	1	3	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	30.5	30.5	30.5	0	0.59	3.36	3.95	T	F	-1.5	172.5	83	349.7980644861	0.047070054406549	92	1	4	1	3	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.25	29.82	42.035	0.0006	0.5906	3.36	3.9506	T	F	22.25	196.25	83	349.7980644861	0.67494199482302	92	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.52	25.95	40.235	0.0077	0.5977	3.36	3.9577	T	F	22.52	196.52	83	349.7980644861	0.68359356816754	92	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.18	24.69	39.435	0.0097	0.5997	3.36	3.9597	T	F	22.18	196.18	83	349.7980644861	0.67268327507328	92	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.37	25.31	39.84	0.0067	0.5867	3.36	3.9467	T	F	22.37	186.37	84	350.7390628119	0.67879914235325	92	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.73	30.34	42.035	0.006	0.596	3.36	3.956	T	F	21.73	208.73	84	350.7390628119	0.65801476000661	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.44	31.92	43.18	0.0041	0.5941	3.36	3.9541	T	F	22.44	209.44	84	350.7390628119	0.68104031112067	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.32	31.58	42.95	0.0015	0.5915	3.36	3.9515	T	F	22.32	209.32	84	350.7390628119	0.6771943081448	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	52.36	32.73	42.545	0.0013	0.5913	3.36	3.9513	T	F	20.36	205.36	84	350.7390628119	0.61195265937893	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	52.14	32.52	42.33	0.0006	0.5906	3.36	3.9506	T	F	20.14	206.14	84	350.7390628119	0.60438675349038	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.32	32.05	41.685	0.0014	0.0114	3.36	3.3714	F	F	19.32	189.32	84	350.7390628119	0.57586047923153	92	3	4	1	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-10-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.47	31.74	41.605	0.0022	0.3622	3.36	3.7222	T	F	19.47	205.47	84	350.7390628119	0.58111321485908	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.23	31.55	41.39	0.0008	0.3608	3.36	3.7208	T	F	19.23	204.23	84	350.7390628119	0.57270229509028	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	50.96	31.12	41.04	0.0002	0.3602	3.36	3.7202	T	F	18.96	203.96	84	350.7390628119	0.56320054433032	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.45	31.08	41.265	0.0002	0.4402	3.36	3.8002	T	F	19.45	203.45	84	350.7390628119	0.58041366339285	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-08 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.44	31.69	41.565	0.0006	0.4506	3.36	3.8106	T	F	19.44	204.44	84	350.7390628119	0.5800637922046	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.49	31.9	41.695	0.0009	0.6309	2.35	2.9809	F	F	19.49	203.49	84	350.7390628119	0.58181250998844	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-07 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.39	31.57	41.48	0	0.76	3.15	3.91	T	F	19.39	225.39	84	350.7390628119	0.57831349246587	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.71	31.78	41.745	0.0008	0.6608	3.15	3.8108	T	F	19.71	225.71	84	350.7390628119	0.58948722631769	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	45.23	30.66	37.945	0.0005	0.7205	3.15	3.8705	T	F	13.23	219.23	84	350.7390628119	0.36172911458933	92	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-07 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	44.35	29.92	37.135	0.0004	0.6404	3.21	3.8504	T	F	12.35	214.35	84	350.7390628119	0.33264655711612	92	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	50.2	28.96	39.58	0.0004	0.5804	3.38	3.9604	T	F	18.2	225.2	84	350.7390628119	0.53627610489927	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	50.64	30	40.32	0.0024	0.4524	3.4	3.8524	T	F	18.64	205.64	84	350.7390628119	0.55189225049227	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	50.64	29.74	40.19	0.0015	0.4515	3.47	3.9215	T	F	18.64	226.64	84	350.7390628119	0.55189225049227	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	50.21	29.95	40.08	0.0013	0.4713	3.49	3.9613	T	F	18.21	226.21	84	350.7390628119	0.53663173139633	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	48.98	30.62	39.8	0.0006	0.3406	3.6	3.9406	T	F	16.98	214.98	84	350.7390628119	0.49275818956512	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	48.99	30.62	39.805	0.0006	0.3306	3.56	3.8906	T	F	16.99	218.99	84	350.7390628119	0.49311525201085	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	49.55	30.19	39.87	0.0006	0.3606	3.49	3.8506	T	F	17.55	220.55	84	350.7390628119	0.51311118128988	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	49.11	31.26	40.185	0.0024	0.5224	3.35	3.8724	T	F	17.11	221.11	84	350.7390628119	0.49740034981554	92	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	49.12	31.26	40.19	0.0024	0.5224	3.28	3.8024	T	F	17.12	239.12	84	350.7390628119	0.49775746165886	92	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-10-05 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	50.2	31.85	41.025	0.0024	0.5524	3.29	3.8424	T	F	18.2	242.2	84	350.7390628119	0.53627610489927	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-05 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.82	32.44	42.13	0.0019	0.5519	3.36	3.9119	T	F	19.82	243.82	84	350.7390628119	0.59331196941475	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-05 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.67	33.47	43.57	0.0016	0.4416	3.51	3.9516	T	F	21.67	249.67	84	350.7390628119	0.65604021166532	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.42	33.29	43.355	0.0016	0.5216	3.36	3.8816	T	F	21.42	249.42	84	350.7390628119	0.64776759663114	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.19	32.55	42.87	0	1.27	2.94	4.21	T	F	21.19	249.19	84	350.7390628119	0.64009445749288	92	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-10-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.22	32.55	42.885	0	1.26	3.2	4.46	T	F	21.22	268.22	84	350.7390628119	0.64109858644653	92	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-10-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	52.43	32.13	42.28	0	1.05	3.22	4.27	T	F	20.43	265.43	84	350.7390628119	0.61435126173005	92	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-10-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	51.89	30.52	41.205	0.0021	0.6321	2.97	3.6021	T	F	19.89	262.89	84	350.7390628119	0.59574129612669	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	52.94	31.26	42.1	0.0021	0.9321	2.98	3.9121	T	F	20.94	258.94	84	350.7390628119	0.63168970165879	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.88	31.44	42.66	0.0023	1.1323	2.76	3.8923	T	F	21.88	265.88	84	350.7390628119	0.66293217284403	92	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-10-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.52	33.66	43.59	0.0018	0.8818	2.59	3.4718	T	F	21.52	257.52	84	350.7390628119	0.65108529900767	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-03 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	53.55	33.65	43.6	0.0013	0.8813	2.76	3.6413	T	F	21.55	278.55	84	350.7390628119	0.6520783765782	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	54.96	34.28	44.62	0.0008	1.2908	2.76	4.0508	T	F	22.96	281.96	84	350.7390628119	0.69747806116762	92	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-10-03 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	10	90	44.26	36.41	40.335	0.0004	1.0004	3.2	4.2004	T	F	12.26	278.26	84	350.7390628119	0.32972464427206	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-10-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	10	90	38.7	36.4	37.55	0	0.84	2.97	3.81	T	F	6.7	255.7	84	350.7390628119	0.17399337937239	92	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-10-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	10	90	38.27	37.2	37.735	0	0.48	2.88	3.36	F	F	6.27	260.27	84	350.7390628119	0.16428003220682	92	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L