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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 12, 2019

[ Friday, October 11, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 13, 2019 ]

DAY 12 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/13/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.722
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 192

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 2 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-13 04:00:12OBSERVATION2020129254.0100440.3100647.160050003.513.51FF22.01004192.0100482348.85348356404 00.7224770813564890 44115222.5DRYL
2019-10-13 00:00:14FORECAST2020129237.1537.1537.1500.00150.00153.513.5115FF5.15175.1581347.9053064059600.137098796128289014115215DRYL
2019-10-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020129257.3144.0550.6800.02250.02253.513.5325FF25.31195.3181347.9053064059600.821161333521719044115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020129257.8136.0946.9500.02660.02663.513.5366FF25.81195.8181347.9053064059600.833915336543699044115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 04:00:11FORECAST2020129253.5836.244.8900.02480.02483.513.5348FF21.58191.5881347.9053064059600.707904840927819044115222.5DRYL
2019-10-12 00:00:13FORECAST2020129257.8233.5645.6900.01260.01263.513.5226FF25.82179.8282348.8534835640400.834164287179519044115222.5DRYL
2019-10-11 20:00:12FORECAST2020129257.9739.448.68500.01050.01053.513.5205FF25.97204.9782348.8534835640400.837869651493199044215225DRYL
2019-10-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020129257.3639.7348.54500.01850.01853.513.5285FF25.36204.3682348.8534835640400.822463729069159044215225DRYL
2019-10-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020129256.8240.6648.7400.01130.01133.513.5213FF24.82203.8282348.8534835640400.808082118791099044215225DRYL
2019-10-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020129258.0939.848.94500.00150.01153.513.5215FF26.09206.0982348.8534835640400.840794919749639044215225DRYL
2019-10-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020129258.4339.0248.72500.00120.00123.513.5112FF26.43204.4382348.8534835640400.848894773274849044215225DRYL
2019-10-11 00:00:13FORECAST2020129258.3441.249.7700.00060.00063.513.5106FF26.34195.3482348.8534835640400.846777793407649044115222.5DRYL
2019-10-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020129258.0738.6548.3600.00590.00593.513.5159FF26.07218.0782348.8534835640400.840309784423779044215225DRYL
2019-10-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020129257.3440.648.9700.00780.00783.513.5178FF25.34217.3482348.8534835640400.821943489177369044215225DRYL
2019-10-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020129257.2138.7847.99500.0370.0373.513.547FF25.21218.2182348.8534835640400.818538597411589044215225DRYL
2019-10-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020129257.3238.7148.01500.03520.04523.513.5552FF25.32219.3282348.8534835640400.821422291463869044215225DRYL
2019-10-10 04:00:14FORECAST2020129254.7638.8946.82500.03470.04473.513.5547FF22.76214.7682348.8534835640400.747008869147399044215225DRYL
2019-10-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020129252.7840.6946.73500.03480.04483.53.5448FF20.78198.7882348.8534835640400.679890528333429034115220DRYL
2019-10-09 20:00:11FORECAST2020129254.7337.7446.23500.020.033.513.54FF22.73227.7382348.8534835640400.746049893044099044215225DRYL
2019-10-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020129253.7339.846.76500.04150.04153.513.5515FF21.73226.7382348.8534835640400.7130279760419044215225DRYL
2019-10-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020129251.2837.8144.54500.04260.04263.513.5526FF19.28224.2882348.8534835640400.624613518766669034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-09 08:00:12FORECAST2020129250.6440.7745.70500.04780.04783.513.5578FF18.64218.6482348.8534835640400.600143488536659034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020129251.5539.7645.65500.03730.03733.513.5473FF19.55218.5582348.8534835640400.634794557735449034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-09 00:00:13FORECAST2020129252.4439.0245.7300.0430.0432.932.973FF20.44201.4482348.8534835640400.667653809904839034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020129252.4339.0345.7300.04330.04333.283.3233FF20.43217.4382348.8534835640400.667291106134939034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020129250.338.4444.3700.06350.06353.283.3435FF18.3214.382348.8534835640400.586975173909669034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020129248.9836.8942.93500.18520.18523.283.4652FF16.98207.9882348.8534835640400.535051376896929034225245DRYM
2019-10-08 08:00:12FORECAST202012924937.2243.1100.18520.18523.363.5452FF1720682348.8534835640400.535844884907889034225245DRYM
2019-10-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020129251.5139.3645.43500.02740.02743.373.3974FF19.51217.5182348.8534835640400.633292036108649034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-08 00:00:16FORECAST2020129253.1340.4346.7800.04840.04842.542.5884FF21.13216.1382348.8534835640400.69228599826379034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-07 20:00:12FORECAST2020129253.1440.446.7700.04840.04843.473.5184FF21.14238.1482348.8534835640400.692637041216919034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-07 16:00:11FORECAST2020129253.5337.6645.59500.020.023.373.39FF21.53241.5382348.8534835640400.706187728638089044215225DRYL
2019-10-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020129249.6538.1843.91500.14280.14283.433.5728FF17.65229.6582348.8534835640400.561538449423499034225245DRYM
2019-10-07 08:00:12FORECAST2020129249.6638.1743.91500.14280.14283.413.5528FF17.66224.6682348.8534835640400.561931998272479034225245DRYM
2019-10-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020129256.140.1348.11500.02260.02263.523.5426FF24.1242.182348.8534835640400.787835391932469044215225DRYL
2019-10-07 00:00:14FORECAST2020129251.7438.2144.97500.01310.01313.413.4231FF19.74218.7482348.8534835640400.641902971192739034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-06 20:00:12FORECAST2020129251.7538.2244.98500.01310.01313.483.4931FF19.75239.7582348.8534835640400.642275764841839034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-06 16:00:11FORECAST2020129252.4438.2245.3300.01090.01093.523.5309FF20.44238.4482348.8534835640400.667653809904839034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-06 12:00:12FORECAST2020129247.8439.7243.7800.02470.02473.53.5247FF15.84223.8482348.8534835640400.489688404780079024215220DRYL
2019-10-06 08:00:12FORECAST2020129247.8539.7343.7900.02470.02473.453.4747FF15.85227.8582348.8534835640400.490086604322369024215220DRYL
2019-10-06 04:00:13FORECAST2020129250.3538.9944.6700.03140.03143.413.4414FF18.35232.3582348.8534835640400.588918220772149034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-06 00:00:13FORECAST2020129252.8638.6245.7400.01040.01043.433.4404FF20.86234.8682348.8534835640400.682742188042579034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-05 20:00:11FORECAST2020129252.8738.6345.7500.0090.0093.363.369FF20.87252.8782348.8534835640400.683097889038319034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-05 16:00:12FORECAST2020129253.7638.9946.37500.0090.0093.43.409FF21.76257.7682348.8534835640400.714047478034929044215225DRYL
2019-10-05 12:00:12FORECAST2020129249.8440.6445.2400.00080.00083.473.4708FF17.84259.8482348.8534835640400.569005035991439034215222.5DRYL
2019-10-05 08:00:12FORECAST2020129243.4640.6942.07500.00020.00023.513.5102FF11.46259.4682348.8534835640400.321617946565469024215220DRYL
2019-10-05 04:00:12FORECAST2020129245.5443.5444.540003.443.44FF13.54258.5482348.8534835640400.399170013757889024215220DRYL