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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 23, 2019

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DAY 358 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/24/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 43.39°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 36.59°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 39.99°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.174 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 341 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.35 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.24 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 5.09 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.33 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 265 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.66 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 73 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 4 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 70.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-24 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	358	73	43.39004	36.59	39.99002	0.35000000000002	1.24	5.09	6.33	T	T	11.39004	341.39004	265	473.65695444609	0.17350100345526	93	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2019-09-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	358	73	44.21	44.21	44.21	0.0114	0.9014	5.09	5.9914	T	F	12.21	342.21	266	474.12818211957	0.19006515443305	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.86	42.45	49.655	0.1328	1.0228	5.09	6.1128	T	F	24.86	354.86	266	474.12818211957	0.53593978037061	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.79	41.76	48.775	0.1505	1.0405	5.09	6.1305	T	F	23.79	353.79	266	474.12818211957	0.50333127070362	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-23 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.06	41.2	48.63	0.1285	1.0185	5.09	6.1085	T	F	24.06	354.06	266	474.12818211957	0.51157029440744	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.19	43.32	49.755	0.1264	0.1264	5.09	5.2164	T	F	24.19	350.19	265	473.65695444609	0.51553568812565	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-22 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.05	43.84	49.945	0.1395	0.5195	5.09	5.6095	T	F	24.05	364.05	265	473.65695444609	0.51126521173681	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.88	46.43	51.155	0.1576	0.5376	5.09	5.6276	T	F	23.88	363.88	265	473.65695444609	0.50607794344277	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.96	44.94	50.45	0.1114	0.4914	5.09	5.5814	T	F	23.96	363.96	265	473.65695444609	0.50851919249085	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.73	44.2	49.965	0.0939	0.6839	5.09	5.7739	T	F	23.73	363.73	265	473.65695444609	0.50150005977031	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.96	43.29	49.625	0.0878	0.8178	5.09	5.9078	T	F	23.96	362.96	265	473.65695444609	0.50851919249085	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.43	43.33	49.88	0.0623	0.7723	5.09	5.8623	T	F	24.43	356.43	265	473.65695444609	0.52285208994332	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.36	43.93	50.145	0.1633	1.1133	5.09	6.2033	T	T	24.36	376.36	265	473.65695444609	0.52071882497709	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.21	44.5	50.355	0.1655	1.1655	5.09	6.2555	T	T	24.21	381.21	265	473.65695444609	0.5161456221795	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.76	45.22	50.49	0.0504	1.0104	5.09	6.1004	T	F	23.76	377.76	265	473.65695444609	0.50241567159929	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.96	45.45	50.705	0.039	0.779	5.09	5.869	T	F	23.96	374.96	265	473.65695444609	0.50851919249085	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.9	45.38	51.14	0.037	0.697	5.09	5.787	T	F	24.9	372.9	265	473.65695444609	0.53715548412916	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	358	73	57.37	48	52.685	0.0856	0.7156	5.05	5.7656	T	F	25.37	373.37	265	473.65695444609	0.55141099609696	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	52.81	41.37	47.09	0.0587	0.5187	5.06	5.5787	T	F	20.81	364.81	265	473.65695444609	0.41307875791527	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.16	41.29	48.225	0.0357	0.4257	5.06	5.4857	T	F	23.16	366.16	265	473.65695444609	0.48410743106236	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.16	41.12	47.64	0.0274	0.3774	5.06	5.4374	T	F	22.16	369.16	265	473.65695444609	0.45368697369387	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-20 08:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	48.58	39.57	44.075	0.0384	0.5584	5.06	5.6184	T	F	16.58	356.58	265	473.65695444609	0.29347755294096	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	53.81	38.73	46.27	0.0419	0.5319	5.09	5.6219	T	F	21.81	367.81	265	473.65695444609	0.44309453976875	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	358	73	52.72	38.56	45.64	0.025	0.875	5.03	5.905	T	F	20.72	360.72	265	473.65695444609	0.41039938969289	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	52.71	38.54	45.625	0.0211	0.9011	5.05	5.9511	T	F	20.71	369.71	265	473.65695444609	0.41010193761746	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	48.92	38.22	43.57	0.0237	1.0337	5.06	6.0937	T	F	16.92	365.92	265	473.65695444609	0.30249415606602	93	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-09-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	49.85	37.63	43.74	0.0122	0.8522	5.06	5.9122	T	F	17.85	365.85	265	473.65695444609	0.3277668365981	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	51.19	38.11	44.65	0.0131	0.9531	5.08	6.0331	T	F	19.19	363.19	265	473.65695444609	0.36558485659963	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	52.58	37.98	45.28	0.0116	0.8316	5.09	5.9216	T	F	20.58	367.58	265	473.65695444609	0.40623982590278	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	358	73	53.38	37.12	45.25	0.0332	0.6332	4.75	5.3832	T	F	21.38	361.38	265	473.65695444609	0.43013720926755	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	53.37	37.13	45.25	0.0332	0.6232	4.94	5.5632	T	F	21.37	371.37	265	473.65695444609	0.42983671351993	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	51.71	35.94	43.825	0.0383	0.5283	4.93	5.4583	T	F	19.71	370.71	265	473.65695444609	0.38064494868062	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-18 12:00:16	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.67	38.23	46.45	0.0049	0.6149	4.92	5.5349	T	F	22.67	368.67	265	473.65695444609	0.4691787730929	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.69	38.25	46.47	0.0049	0.6149	4.97	5.5849	T	F	22.69	367.69	265	473.65695444609	0.46978740165434	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	55.78	40.12	47.95	0.0025	0.3525	5.04	5.3925	T	F	23.78	373.78	265	473.65695444609	0.50302607271373	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.95	40.08	48.515	0.0174	0.8374	3.73	4.5674	T	F	24.95	371.95	265	473.65695444609	0.53867462463896	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.94	40.1	48.52	0.0174	0.8374	4.29	5.1274	T	F	24.94	375.94	265	473.65695444609	0.53837084096039	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.05	41.87	48.96	0.0216	0.8216	4.17	4.9916	T	F	24.05	380.05	265	473.65695444609	0.51126521173681	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 12:00:15	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.49	38.16	46.325	0.0219	1.7819	4.28	6.0619	T	T	22.49	369.49	265	473.65695444609	0.4637045263785	93	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-09-17 08:00:15	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.5	38.18	46.34	0.0219	1.7819	4.67	6.4519	T	T	22.5	365.5	265	473.65695444609	0.46400848063723	93	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-09-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.41	38.61	46.51	0.0239	1.8339	4.73	6.5639	T	T	22.41	368.41	265	473.65695444609	0.46127366974322	93	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-09-17 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	358	73	56.02	40.22	48.12	0.935	2.315	4.75	7.065	T	T	24.02	364.02	265	473.65695444609	0.51034992488883	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-09-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	58.32	41.06	49.69	0.7158	1.9858	5.11	7.0958	T	T	26.32	376.32	265	473.65695444609	0.58000493291489	93	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-09-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	358	73	54.92	39.42	47.17	0.3969	1.3969	5.13	6.5269	T	T	22.92	380.92	265	473.65695444609	0.47679134743076	93	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2019-09-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	358	73	46.94	41.08	44.01	0.0035	0.1835	4.97	5.1535	T	F	14.94	373.94	265	473.65695444609	0.25183199719014	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-16 08:00:14	FORECAST	2019	358	73	42.45	41.12	41.785	0.0035	0.1835	4.8	4.9835	T	F	10.45	368.45	265	473.65695444609	0.15567649565156	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2019-09-16 04:00:16	FORECAST	2019	358	73	43.48	43.37	43.425	0.0006	0.2006	4.97	5.1706	T	F	11.48	368.48	265	473.65695444609	0.17527219253464	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH