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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 24, 2019

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DAY 359 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/25/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 50.54°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 40.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 45.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.312 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 323 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.09 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.33 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 5.01 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.34 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 266 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 474.13 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 74 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 4 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 80.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-25 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	359	74	50.54	40.76006	45.65003	0.089999999999975	1.33	5.01	6.34	T	T	18.54	322.54	266	474.12818211957	0.31214024506829	91	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2019-09-25 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	44.14	44.14	44.14	0.0014	1.2414	5.01	6.2514	T	T	12.14	316.14	267	474.59762252586	0.15928883630395	91	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2019-09-24 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	61.49	46.89	54.19	0.0254	1.2654	5.01	6.2754	T	T	29.49	333.49	267	474.59762252586	0.64743620502327	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	61.73	43.85	52.79	0.0288	1.2688	5.01	6.2788	T	T	29.73	333.73	267	474.59762252586	0.65447746581113	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	56.28	45.64	50.96	0.0649	1.3049	5.01	6.3149	T	T	24.28	328.28	267	474.59762252586	0.48616765304866	91	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2019-09-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	359	74	59.66	44.93	52.295	0.1618	1.0618	5.01	6.0718	T	F	27.66	332.66	266	474.12818211957	0.5922400939325	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-23 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	59.73	48.19	53.96	0.1752	1.1952	5.01	6.2052	T	T	27.73	345.73	266	474.12818211957	0.59439341357586	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-23 16:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.08	49.59	54.835	0.196	1.216	5.01	6.226	T	T	28.08	346.08	266	474.12818211957	0.60511598674558	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	59.9	48.09	53.995	0.2084	1.2284	5.01	6.2384	T	T	27.9	345.9	266	474.12818211957	0.59961090632131	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	59.32	48.32	53.82	0.2393	1.2793	5.01	6.2893	T	T	27.32	344.32	266	474.12818211957	0.58174258529943	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-23 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	59.45	48.33	53.89	0.2462	1.2662	5.01	6.2762	T	T	27.45	344.45	266	474.12818211957	0.58576364925128	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.5	48.23	54.365	0.2619	0.3919	5.01	5.4019	T	F	28.5	341.5	266	474.12818211957	0.6178781094393	91	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-22 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.14	48.08	54.11	0.2634	0.7834	5.01	5.7934	T	F	28.14	355.14	266	474.12818211957	0.60694642008997	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.3	48.03	54.165	0.25	0.79	5.01	5.8	T	F	28.3	355.3	266	474.12818211957	0.61181592992619	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.01	47.88	53.945	0.2282	0.7182	5.01	5.7282	T	F	28.01	355.01	266	474.12818211957	0.60297754855238	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	59.55	47.88	53.715	0.1953	0.8753	5.01	5.8853	T	F	27.55	354.55	266	474.12818211957	0.58885069403645	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	61.14	48.29	54.715	0.2089	1.0289	5.01	6.0389	T	F	29.14	355.14	266	474.12818211957	0.63707714047687	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.7	48.05	54.375	0.2504	1.0204	5.01	6.0304	T	F	28.7	347.7	266	474.12818211957	0.62391153665017	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.37	48.25	54.31	0.3003	1.4003	5.02	6.4203	T	T	28.37	367.37	266	474.12818211957	0.61394087661455	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.08	48.39	54.235	0.3071	1.4671	5.02	6.4871	T	T	28.08	372.08	266	474.12818211957	0.60511598674558	91	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-09-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	55.3	47.6	51.45	0.2575	1.2575	5.02	6.2775	T	T	23.3	364.3	266	474.12818211957	0.45526070158349	91	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2019-09-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	55.3	47.4	51.35	0.2151	0.9851	5.02	6.0051	T	F	23.3	361.3	266	474.12818211957	0.45526070158349	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.23	47.72	53.975	0.2585	0.9485	5.02	5.9685	T	F	28.23	364.23	266	474.12818211957	0.60968763154644	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	359	74	60.32	47.25	53.785	0.1567	0.8667	4.98	5.8467	T	F	28.32	364.32	266	474.12818211957	0.61242340219113	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	52.9	42.13	47.515	0.1239	0.6339	4.99	5.6239	T	F	20.9	348.9	266	474.12818211957	0.38107049465043	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	53.37	42.55	47.96	0.0888	0.5088	4.99	5.4988	T	F	21.37	350.37	266	474.12818211957	0.39534862432792	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	54.76	42.07	48.415	0.0463	0.4263	4.98	5.4063	T	F	22.76	354.76	266	474.12818211957	0.4383334166712	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-20 08:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	55.39	42.35	48.87	0.038	0.598	4.98	5.578	T	F	23.39	343.39	266	474.12818211957	0.45809068148317	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	54.2	41.23	47.715	0.1058	0.6358	5.01	5.6458	T	F	22.2	353.2	266	474.12818211957	0.42089796651134	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	359	74	54.67	43.42	49.045	0.0273	0.8973	4.96	5.8573	T	F	22.67	346.67	266	474.12818211957	0.4355222846466	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	54.68	43.42	49.05	0.0273	0.9173	4.98	5.8973	T	F	22.68	355.68	266	474.12818211957	0.43583447449926	91	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	54.32	42.55	48.435	0.045	1.065	4.99	6.055	T	F	22.32	351.32	266	474.12818211957	0.42462230890019	91	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-09-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	58.3	42.39	50.345	0.0343	0.8743	4.99	5.8643	T	F	26.3	355.3	266	474.12818211957	0.54992842321193	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	57.58	42.5	50.04	0.0515	0.9815	5.02	6.0015	T	F	25.58	351.58	266	474.12818211957	0.52726390936025	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	61.3	43.66	52.48	0.0049	0.7949	5.05	5.8449	T	F	29.3	360.3	266	474.12818211957	0.64182569696374	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	359	74	63.41	43.78	53.595	0.0008	0.6108	4.69	5.3008	T	F	31.41	355.41	266	474.12818211957	0.70216776034146	91	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2019-09-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	63.43	43.79	53.61	0.0008	0.6008	4.88	5.4808	T	F	31.43	365.43	266	474.12818211957	0.70271710600722	91	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2019-09-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	61.37	43.78	52.575	0.0153	0.5253	4.87	5.3953	T	F	29.37	363.37	266	474.12818211957	0.64389636579638	91	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-18 12:00:16	FORECAST	2019	359	74	64.22	43.54	53.88	0.0017	0.5817	4.87	5.4517	T	F	32.22	364.22	266	474.12818211957	0.7240360929881	91	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2019-09-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	64.22	43.56	53.89	0.0017	0.5817	4.92	5.5017	T	F	32.22	363.22	266	474.12818211957	0.7240360929881	91	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2019-09-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	64.77	44.84	54.805	0.0024	0.3524	4.96	5.3124	T	F	32.77	369.77	266	474.12818211957	0.73842174013001	91	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	69.53	47.2	58.365	0.0006	0.8306	3.66	4.4906	T	F	37.53	372.53	266	474.12818211957	0.84519698526937	91	4	4	2	3	5	1	150	WET	MH
2019-09-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	69.54	47.21	58.375	0.0002	0.8302	4.22	5.0502	T	F	37.54	376.54	266	474.12818211957	0.8453858321042	91	4	4	2	3	5	1	150	WET	MH
2019-09-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	359	74	68.1	49.68	58.89	0.0002	0.8202	4.09	4.9102	T	F	36.1	379.1	266	474.12818211957	0.81662942270828	91	4	4	2	3	5	1	150	WET	MH
2019-09-17 12:00:15	FORECAST	2019	359	74	56.82	46.77	51.795	0.0008	1.7408	4.24	5.9808	T	T	24.82	356.82	266	474.12818211957	0.50324557874111	91	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-09-17 08:00:15	FORECAST	2019	359	74	48.6	46.79	47.695	0	1.74	4.63	6.37	T	T	16.6	345.6	266	474.12818211957	0.25990948559715	91	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-09-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	359	74	48.15	47.76	47.955	0	1.79	4.69	6.48	T	T	16.15	347.15	266	474.12818211957	0.24847085420133	91	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H