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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 22, 2019

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DAY 357 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/23/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 46.51°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 41.12°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 43.82°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.234 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 374 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.89 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.93 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 5.05 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 5.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 264 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.18 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 72 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 52.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-23 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	357	72	46.50998	41.12006	43.81502	0.88999999999999	0.92999999999999	5.05	5.98	T	F	14.50998	373.50998	264	473.18393270088	0.23369529223044	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	357	72	42.87	42.87	42.87	0.0024	0.0424	5.05	5.0924	T	F	10.87	369.87	265	473.65695444609	0.15242997970993	93	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	57.01	44.09	50.55	0.3781	0.4181	5.05	5.4681	T	F	25.01	384.01	265	473.65695444609	0.55423038342691	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.79	41.82	49.305	0.5924	0.6324	5.05	5.6824	T	F	24.79	383.79	265	473.65695444609	0.54707464739073	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.29	46.41	51.35	0.7348	0.7748	5.05	5.8248	T	F	24.29	383.29	265	473.65695444609	0.53075829401432	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.14	46.64	51.39	0.7089	0.7489	5.05	5.7989	T	F	24.14	376.14	264	473.18393270088	0.5258520328714	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.26	47.85	52.055	0.9383	0.9883	5.05	6.0383	T	F	24.26	396.26	264	473.18393270088	0.52977739135595	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	61.38	48.1	54.74	0.9854	1.0354	5.05	6.0854	T	F	29.38	401.38	264	473.18393270088	0.68989608444142	93	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	57.5	48.07	52.785	0.9451	0.9951	5.05	6.0451	T	F	25.5	397.5	264	473.18393270088	0.57010147379401	93	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	55.58	47.91	51.745	0.7275	0.7775	5.05	5.8275	T	F	23.58	394.58	264	473.18393270088	0.50750664546875	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	55.43	49.05	52.24	0.653	0.703	5.05	5.753	T	F	23.43	392.43	264	473.18393270088	0.50258839246048	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.42	48.62	52.52	0.6162	0.6262	5.05	5.6762	T	F	24.42	392.42	264	473.18393270088	0.53500663930503	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.4	41.51	44.455	0.4471	0.4671	5.05	5.5171	T	F	15.4	388.4	264	473.18393270088	0.25669717167399	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	45.01	41.39	43.2	0.3751	0.3951	5.05	5.4451	T	F	13.01	387.01	264	473.18393270088	0.1976452075264	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2019-09-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	49.25	41.34	45.295	0.3493	0.3593	5.05	5.4093	T	F	17.25	391.25	264	473.18393270088	0.30801501940116	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-20 08:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	48.46	40.62	44.54	0.5176	0.5276	5.05	5.5776	T	F	16.46	384.46	264	473.18393270088	0.28555286663008	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	48.04	40.11	44.075	0.4949	0.5349	5.05	5.5849	T	F	16.04	390.04	264	473.18393270088	0.27393685456099	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	357	72	48.52	40.42	44.47	0.8372	0.8872	4.99	5.8772	T	F	16.52	383.52	264	473.18393270088	0.28723122204619	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.87	40.35	44.11	0.8652	0.9152	5.01	5.9252	T	F	15.87	392.87	264	473.18393270088	0.26930237241005	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.89	39.18	43.535	0.9982	1.0582	5.01	6.0682	T	F	15.89	392.89	264	473.18393270088	0.26984556077822	93	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-09-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.69	37.8	42.745	0.8326	0.8926	5.01	5.9026	T	F	15.69	391.69	264	473.18393270088	0.26443845392773	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	46.33	38.52	42.425	0.9241	1.0141	5.01	6.0241	T	F	14.33	388.33	264	473.18393270088	0.22918655175057	93	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	MH
2019-09-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	48.32	37.92	43.12	0.7772	0.8972	5.01	5.9072	T	F	16.32	391.32	264	473.18393270088	0.28165494025523	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	357	72	45.46	36.83	41.145	0.5805	0.6805	4.67	5.3505	T	F	13.46	384.46	264	473.18393270088	0.20809180226044	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	44.89	36.84	40.865	0.5682	0.6782	4.85	5.5282	T	F	12.89	393.89	264	473.18393270088	0.19491380394027	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.42	35.95	41.685	0.4699	0.5699	4.85	5.4199	T	F	15.42	395.42	264	473.18393270088	0.2572272448956	93	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-18 12:00:16	FORECAST	2019	357	72	43.85	39.2	41.525	0.5754	0.6854	4.84	5.5254	T	F	11.85	389.85	264	473.18393270088	0.17221255073914	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	43.87	39.21	41.54	0.5754	0.6854	4.89	5.5754	T	F	11.87	388.87	264	473.18393270088	0.17263258593992	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	48.79	40.08	44.435	0.3529	0.4329	4.96	5.3929	T	F	16.79	393.79	264	473.18393270088	0.29484094944589	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	44.72	39.87	42.295	0.8085	0.8785	3.67	4.5485	T	F	12.72	390.72	264	473.18393270088	0.19108375413831	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	44.76	39.9	42.33	0.8085	0.8985	4.21	5.1085	T	F	12.76	394.76	264	473.18393270088	0.19198077407284	93	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.16	40.45	43.805	0.7994	0.8694	4.1	4.9694	T	F	15.16	400.16	264	473.18393270088	0.25038086590116	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 12:00:15	FORECAST	2019	357	72	44.63	37.74	41.185	1.72	1.84	4.2	6.04	T	T	12.63	390.63	264	473.18393270088	0.18907485634836	93	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2019-09-17 08:00:15	FORECAST	2019	357	72	44.67	37.74	41.205	1.72	1.82	4.61	6.43	T	T	12.67	386.67	264	473.18393270088	0.18996609242077	93	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2019-09-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	44.01	37.41	40.71	1.7662	1.8562	4.68	6.5362	T	T	12.01	390.01	264	473.18393270088	0.17559105334925	93	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2019-09-17 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	357	72	46.18	39.92	43.05	1.3753	1.4253	4.7	6.1253	T	T	14.18	384.18	264	473.18393270088	0.22546635800118	93	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2019-09-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	48.64	40.27	44.455	1.2671	1.3171	5.06	6.3771	T	T	16.64	393.64	264	473.18393270088	0.29060185292366	93	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2019-09-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.58	39.6	43.59	0.9974	1.0474	5.08	6.1274	T	F	15.58	401.58	264	473.18393270088	0.26148819722795	93	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	50.81	40.42	45.615	0.177	0.187	4.96	5.147	T	F	18.81	402.81	264	473.18393270088	0.35447913605741	93	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-16 08:00:14	FORECAST	2019	357	72	50.82	40.44	45.63	0.177	0.187	4.79	4.977	T	F	18.82	401.82	264	473.18393270088	0.35478503546094	93	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-16 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	357	72	51.91	41.25	46.58	0.1952	0.2052	4.96	5.1652	T	F	19.91	400.91	264	473.18393270088	0.3886498738648	93	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-16 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.98	43.89	50.435	0.2281	0.2481	4.1	4.3481	T	F	24.98	410.98	264	473.18393270088	0.55325558766221	93	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	55.58	45.57	50.575	0.2418	0.2918	4.38	4.6718	T	F	23.58	412.58	264	473.18393270088	0.50750664546875	93	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	56.09	47.28	51.685	0.2385	0.2585	4.55	4.8085	T	F	24.09	420.09	264	473.18393270088	0.52421570377513	93	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	51.28	44.41	47.845	0.0006	0.1106	4.02	4.1306	T	F	19.28	396.28	264	473.18393270088	0.36895468577873	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	357	72	46.44	44.4	45.42	0	0.11	4.56	4.67	T	F	14.44	394.44	264	473.18393270088	0.23193639164102	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2019-09-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	357	72	47.26	45.15	46.205	0	0.09	4.62	4.71	T	F	15.26	401.26	264	473.18393270088	0.25300262232045	93	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH