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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 21, 2019

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DAY 356 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/22/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 53.05°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 39.20°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 46.12°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.476 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 21 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 391 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.10 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 4.99 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 5.09 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 263 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.71 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 71 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-22 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	356	71	53.04992	39.2	46.12496	0	0.1	4.99	5.09	T	F	21.04992	391.04992	263	472.70911005348	0.47568540821689	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	46.2	46.2	46.2	0.001	0.101	4.99	5.091	T	F	14.2	384.2	264	473.18393270088	0.26116945280266	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	65.69	49.8	57.745	0.0137	0.1137	4.99	5.1037	T	F	33.69	403.69	264	473.18393270088	0.84306221775961	91	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2019-09-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	65.01	42.34	53.675	0.0102	0.1102	4.99	5.1002	T	F	33.01	403.01	264	473.18393270088	0.82885010973735	91	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2019-09-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	62.99	43.04	53.015	0.0067	0.1067	4.99	5.0967	T	F	30.99	400.99	264	473.18393270088	0.78197681349111	91	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2019-09-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	66.46	42.61	54.535	0.0065	0.0665	4.99	5.0565	T	F	34.46	400.46	263	472.70911005348	0.85819283935142	91	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2019-09-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	59.24	42.52	50.88	0.0134	0.0834	4.99	5.0734	T	F	27.24	405.24	263	472.70911005348	0.67796261710575	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	60.21	43.45	51.83	0.0072	0.0772	4.99	5.0672	T	F	28.21	406.21	263	472.70911005348	0.70676818722874	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	60.36	44.77	52.565	0.0047	0.0747	4.99	5.0647	T	F	28.36	406.36	263	472.70911005348	0.71111401703049	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-20 08:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	60.43	44.11	52.27	0.0031	0.0731	4.99	5.0631	T	F	28.43	400.43	263	472.70911005348	0.7131316555309	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	60.04	43.8	51.92	0.0036	0.1036	4.99	5.0936	T	F	28.04	406.04	263	472.70911005348	0.70180663213469	91	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2019-09-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	59.44	43.15	51.295	0.0052	0.0452	4.99	5.0352	T	F	27.44	399.44	263	472.70911005348	0.68399781772099	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-19 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	58.41	43.84	51.125	0.0095	0.0695	4.99	5.0595	T	F	26.41	409.41	263	472.70911005348	0.65242711326223	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	58.02	44.55	51.285	0.0091	0.0791	4.99	5.0691	T	F	26.02	409.02	263	472.70911005348	0.64017640923958	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.02	43.37	50.195	0.0067	0.0767	4.99	5.0667	T	F	25.02	408.02	263	472.70911005348	0.60812714118003	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.37	43.88	50.125	0.0223	0.1123	4.99	5.1023	T	F	24.37	406.37	263	472.70911005348	0.58687878219834	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	55.02	44.72	49.87	0.0357	0.1357	4.99	5.1257	T	F	23.02	407.02	263	472.70911005348	0.54199606665651	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	54.67	42.11	48.39	0.0198	0.1198	4.65	4.7698	T	F	22.67	402.67	263	472.70911005348	0.5302477779047	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	55.19	41.84	48.515	0.0203	0.1203	4.84	4.9603	T	F	23.19	413.19	263	472.70911005348	0.54768980711126	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	54.27	42.26	48.265	0.0247	0.1147	4.84	4.9547	T	F	22.27	412.27	263	472.70911005348	0.51678944170961	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-18 12:00:16	FORECAST	2019	356	71	51.9	42.42	47.16	0.0339	0.1139	4.84	4.9539	T	F	19.9	409.9	263	472.70911005348	0.43717305370241	91	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	51.88	41.32	46.6	0.0298	0.1098	4.89	4.9998	T	F	19.88	408.88	263	472.70911005348	0.43650739861506	91	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.66	40.64	49.15	0.0036	0.0936	4.95	5.0436	T	F	25.66	408.66	263	472.70911005348	0.62873850874186	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.89	41.31	49.6	0.0118	0.0918	3.65	3.7418	T	F	25.89	409.89	263	472.70911005348	0.63605989385858	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-09-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.89	40.36	49.125	0.0073	0.1073	4.19	4.2973	T	F	25.89	413.89	263	472.70911005348	0.63605989385858	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	58.81	40.76	49.785	0.0028	0.0828	4.09	4.1728	T	F	26.81	416.81	263	472.70911005348	0.66482867248453	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-17 12:00:15	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.71	40.94	48.825	0.0402	0.1302	4.19	4.3202	T	F	24.71	409.71	263	472.70911005348	0.59802930445964	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-17 08:00:15	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.71	40.95	48.83	0.0402	0.1102	4.6	4.7102	T	F	24.71	405.71	263	472.70911005348	0.59802930445964	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	55.88	42.69	49.285	0.0405	0.1005	4.67	4.7705	T	F	23.88	409.88	263	472.70911005348	0.57068714814255	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-17 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.1	41.59	48.845	0.0048	0.0648	4.69	4.7548	T	F	24.1	402.1	263	472.70911005348	0.57797328829878	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.54	40.35	48.945	0.0042	0.0642	5.05	5.1142	T	F	25.54	408.54	263	472.70911005348	0.62489989337316	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.34	42.22	49.78	0.0046	0.0646	5.07	5.1346	T	F	25.34	418.34	263	472.70911005348	0.61847480822741	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	59.96	41.01	50.485	0.001	0.021	4.95	4.971	T	F	27.96	415.96	263	472.70911005348	0.69945864059402	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 08:00:14	FORECAST	2019	356	71	59.98	41.04	50.51	0.001	0.021	4.78	4.801	T	F	27.98	414.98	263	472.70911005348	0.70004642010847	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	356	71	60.22	42.12	51.17	0.001	0.021	4.95	4.971	T	F	28.22	413.22	263	472.70911005348	0.70705884904981	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	356	71	59.98	44.56	52.27	0.0066	0.0266	4.09	4.1166	T	F	27.98	417.98	263	472.70911005348	0.70004642010847	91	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-09-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	58.27	43.66	50.965	0.0223	0.0623	4.37	4.4323	T	F	26.27	421.27	263	472.70911005348	0.64804691258555	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	59.2	42.55	50.875	0.0147	0.0247	4.55	4.5747	T	F	27.2	428.2	263	472.70911005348	0.6767498616348	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	55.54	42.73	49.135	0.0304	0.1104	4.02	4.1304	T	F	23.54	408.54	263	472.70911005348	0.55938010487654	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	55.56	42.75	49.155	0.0304	0.1104	4.56	4.6704	T	F	23.56	411.56	263	472.70911005348	0.56004666028784	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	57.39	43.72	50.555	0.0306	0.0906	4.62	4.7106	T	F	25.39	418.39	263	472.70911005348	0.62008421997929	91	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.1	41.71	48.905	0.0371	0.0871	4.52	4.6071	T	F	24.1	414.1	263	472.70911005348	0.57797328829878	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.13	41.68	48.905	0.0358	0.0858	4.4	4.4858	T	F	24.13	431.13	263	472.70911005348	0.57896484671561	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-14 16:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	56.6	42.84	49.72	0.0377	0.0777	4.59	4.6677	T	F	24.6	432.6	263	472.70911005348	0.59443003465962	91	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-09-14 12:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	48.64	39.59	44.115	0.0081	0.0581	4.84	4.8981	T	F	16.64	401.64	263	472.70911005348	0.3322982310573	91	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2019-09-14 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	356	71	41.28	39.57	40.425	0.0081	0.0581	4.57	4.6281	T	F	9.28	400.28	263	472.70911005348	0.14557182142099	91	1	4	3	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2019-09-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	356	71	43.54	41.97	42.755	0.007	0.047	4.74	4.787	T	F	11.54	400.54	263	472.70911005348	0.19364398607606	91	1	4	3	1	5	2	20	WET	MH