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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 20, 2019

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DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/21/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 45.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 40.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 42.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.214 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 403 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.44 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 4.65 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 5.09 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 262 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-21 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	355	70	45.64004	40.15994	42.89999	0.039999999999964	0.43999999999996	4.65	5.09	T	F	13.64004	402.64004	262	472.23247964746	0.21363381442309	90	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	42.29	42.29	42.29	0	0.4	4.65	5.05	T	F	10.29	399.29	263	472.70911005348	0.13721454506812	90	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.95	45.37	49.66	0.0071	0.4071	4.65	5.0571	T	F	21.95	410.95	263	472.70911005348	0.47906665538779	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-20 08:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	47.68	42.84	45.26	0.0143	0.4143	4.65	5.0643	T	F	15.68	404.68	263	472.70911005348	0.27031726867967	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	54.23	42.57	48.4	0.0441	0.4441	4.65	5.0941	T	F	22.23	411.23	263	472.70911005348	0.489023441612	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.24	40.78	47.01	0.0412	0.3812	4.65	5.0312	T	F	21.24	405.24	262	472.23247964746	0.45389173865203	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.2	41.06	47.13	0.0441	0.4041	4.65	5.0541	T	F	21.2	416.2	262	472.23247964746	0.45247797842808	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.05	41.49	47.27	0.0546	0.4146	4.65	5.0646	T	F	21.05	416.05	262	472.23247964746	0.44718188562007	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.63	42.13	47.38	0.0454	0.4054	4.65	5.0554	T	F	20.63	415.63	262	472.23247964746	0.4324057986205	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.57	41.39	46.98	0.0747	0.4347	4.65	5.0847	T	F	20.57	414.57	262	472.23247964746	0.43030212941038	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.06	41.7	47.38	0.0817	0.4417	4.65	5.0917	T	F	21.06	417.06	262	472.23247964746	0.44753467628744	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.13	41.34	47.235	0.0791	0.0991	4.65	4.7491	T	F	21.13	413.13	262	472.23247964746	0.45000535775823	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.06	41.16	47.11	0.0857	0.2857	4.65	4.9357	T	F	21.06	423.06	262	472.23247964746	0.44753467628744	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.16	40.06	46.61	0.0839	0.2839	4.65	4.9339	T	F	21.16	423.16	262	472.23247964746	0.4510648204098	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 12:00:16	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.66	39.2	45.93	0.0847	0.2747	4.65	4.9247	T	F	20.66	422.66	262	472.23247964746	0.43345835602328	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.04	39.64	46.34	0.0841	0.3241	4.65	4.9741	T	F	21.04	422.04	262	472.23247964746	0.44682913673761	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.22	39.78	46	0.0762	0.3862	4.65	5.0362	T	F	20.22	416.22	262	472.23247964746	0.41807197731818	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	51.8	40.97	46.385	0.0562	0.4462	3.28	3.7262	T	F	19.8	416.8	262	472.23247964746	0.40350068232972	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	51.95	40.66	46.305	0.075	0.495	3.79	4.285	T	F	19.95	420.95	262	472.23247964746	0.40869047663963	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	51.9	41.14	46.52	0.066	0.376	3.79	4.166	T	F	19.9	422.9	262	472.23247964746	0.40695871757259	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-17 12:00:15	FORECAST	2019	355	70	48.29	40.97	44.63	0.0756	0.4856	3.79	4.2756	T	F	16.29	418.29	262	472.23247964746	0.28861669069489	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-17 08:00:15	FORECAST	2019	355	70	48.27	41.69	44.98	0.0615	0.6315	4.04	4.6715	T	F	16.27	414.27	262	472.23247964746	0.28800757808986	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.55	39.62	46.585	0.0518	0.5918	4.14	4.7318	T	F	21.55	418.55	262	472.23247964746	0.46486683895343	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-17 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.7	39.88	46.29	0.0465	0.5565	4.19	4.7465	T	F	20.7	410.7	262	472.23247964746	0.43486249901492	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.25	38.84	45.545	0.0452	0.6052	4.5	5.1052	T	F	20.25	416.25	262	472.23247964746	0.41911735336256	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.13	38.55	45.34	0.0489	0.7189	4.41	5.1289	T	F	20.13	426.13	262	472.23247964746	0.41493934815628	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.61	39.91	46.76	0.0148	0.6048	4.37	4.9748	T	F	21.61	420.61	262	472.23247964746	0.46699440573272	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-16 08:00:14	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.62	39.93	46.775	0.0148	0.4848	4.32	4.8048	T	F	21.62	419.62	262	472.23247964746	0.46734909355185	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-16 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	355	70	54.6	40.5	47.55	0.0079	0.4979	4.47	4.9679	T	F	22.6	417.6	262	472.23247964746	0.50219010245188	90	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2019-09-16 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	355	70	56.24	41.32	48.78	0.0095	0.4795	3.63	4.1095	T	F	24.24	423.24	262	472.23247964746	0.56032489592365	90	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	56.28	40.43	48.355	0.0272	0.4472	3.96	4.4072	T	F	24.28	428.28	262	472.23247964746	0.5617317801228	90	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2019-09-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	56.4	44.15	50.275	0.0073	0.6173	3.94	4.5573	T	F	24.4	434.4	262	472.23247964746	0.565947684904	90	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2019-09-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.55	39.58	46.565	0.0776	0.5276	3.57	4.0976	T	F	21.55	417.55	262	472.23247964746	0.46486683895343	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	53.56	39.56	46.56	0.0776	0.6176	4.02	4.6376	T	F	21.56	420.56	262	472.23247964746	0.46522136533314	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	54.02	39.54	46.78	0.0647	0.4947	4.19	4.6847	T	F	22.02	426.02	262	472.23247964746	0.48155487070532	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.04	42.42	47.23	0.0354	0.3354	4.23	4.5654	T	F	20.04	423.04	262	472.23247964746	0.41181211732186	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	52.06	42.45	47.255	0.0354	0.2754	4.17	4.4454	T	F	20.06	440.06	262	472.23247964746	0.41250658114499	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-14 16:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	54.46	43.25	48.855	0.0287	0.1987	4.43	4.6287	T	F	22.46	441.46	262	472.23247964746	0.49720762814886	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-14 12:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	50.15	37.43	43.79	0.0263	0.1463	4.74	4.8863	T	F	18.15	418.15	262	472.23247964746	0.34771639004936	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-14 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	355	70	50.18	37.43	43.805	0.0263	0.1463	4.47	4.6163	T	F	18.18	424.18	262	472.23247964746	0.34870584522788	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	51.87	38.01	44.94	0.0076	0.2076	4.57	4.7776	T	F	19.87	421.87	262	472.23247964746	0.40592053212265	90	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2019-09-14 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	355	70	46.85	37.76	42.305	0.1467	0.4467	4.38	4.8267	T	F	14.85	423.85	262	472.23247964746	0.24638528406808	90	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	46.87	37.78	42.325	0.1211	0.4211	4.32	4.7411	T	F	14.87	430.87	262	472.23247964746	0.24694832011886	90	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2019-09-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	47.42	38.54	42.98	0.2163	1.3063	4.16	5.4663	T	F	15.42	428.42	262	472.23247964746	0.26269750881249	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-09-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	49.29	42.59	45.94	0.0028	0.8828	4.19	5.0728	T	F	17.29	425.29	262	472.23247964746	0.31981523756371	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-09-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	355	70	46.12	42.61	44.365	0.0011	0.8811	4.2	5.0811	T	F	14.12	422.12	262	472.23247964746	0.22631236037529	90	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2019-09-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	355	70	44.52	41.33	42.925	0.0011	0.8911	3.96	4.8511	T	F	12.52	432.52	262	472.23247964746	0.18570506810791	90	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	WET	MH