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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 10, 2019

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DAY 345 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 47.92°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 40.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 44.34°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.124 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 561 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.39 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.60 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.65 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 2.25 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 252 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.37 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-11 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	345	60	47.91992	40.76006	44.33999	0.38999999999999	1.6	0.65	2.25	F	F	15.91992	560.91992	252	467.36522165142	0.12399668979733	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	345	60	42.01	42.01	42.01	0	1.21	0.65	1.86	F	F	10.01	555.01	253	467.86031254069	0.040659497800841	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	51.12	41.91	46.515	0.1993	1.4093	0.65	2.0593	F	F	19.12	564.12	253	467.86031254069	0.20115709585892	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	44.91	41.72	43.315	0.2399	1.4499	0.65	2.0999	F	F	12.91	557.91	253	467.86031254069	0.072915409387576	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	345	60	45.77	39.71	42.74	0.277	1.487	0.65	2.137	F	F	13.77	558.77	253	467.86031254069	0.085516173159022	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	345	60	51.06	39.64	45.35	0.3345	0.5145	0.65	1.1645	F	F	19.06	559.06	252	467.36522165142	0.19948821362336	90	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.27	39.04	44.655	0.456	0.996	0.65	1.646	F	F	18.27	565.27	252	467.36522165142	0.17829842779696	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.06	40.46	45.26	0.3764	0.9164	0.65	1.5664	F	F	18.06	565.06	252	467.36522165142	0.17291292595994	90	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	45.14	40.28	42.71	0.3961	0.9361	0.65	1.5861	F	F	13.14	560.14	252	467.36522165142	0.076137622673101	90	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	45.05	39.9	42.475	0.3616	1.2516	0.65	1.9016	F	F	13.05	560.05	252	467.36522165142	0.074864125504516	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.66	40.45	45.555	0.3492	1.2292	0.65	1.8792	F	F	18.66	560.66	252	467.36522165142	0.18857634484995	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	345	60	49.39	41.21	45.3	0.4153	1.3653	0.65	2.0153	F	F	17.39	551.39	252	467.36522165142	0.15643044781303	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.31	40.94	45.625	0.3978	1.7678	0.65	2.4178	F	F	18.31	563.31	252	467.36522165142	0.17933606815461	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	49.88	39	44.44	0.3536	1.7236	0.65	2.3736	F	F	17.88	566.88	252	467.36522165142	0.16837999017755	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.22	38.68	44.45	0.2784	1.9384	0.65	2.5884	F	F	18.22	561.22	252	467.36522165142	0.17700669678049	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.49	39.93	45.21	0.247	1.837	0.65	2.487	F	F	18.49	556.49	252	467.36522165142	0.18405218755801	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.7	38.3	44.5	0.2479	1.7279	0.65	2.3779	F	F	18.7	560.7	252	467.36522165142	0.18965071268546	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.45	39	44.725	0.2064	2.0864	0.53	2.6164	F	F	18.45	540.45	252	467.36522165142	0.18299755902263	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.53	39.27	44.9	0.2285	1.8685	0.84	2.7085	F	F	18.53	558.53	252	467.36522165142	0.18511058312564	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.41	40.11	45.26	0.2091	1.8091	0.84	2.6491	F	F	18.41	562.41	252	467.36522165142	0.18194670062178	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	49.93	40.15	45.04	0.3551	1.9251	0.84	2.7651	F	F	17.93	556.93	252	467.36522165142	0.16963142460404	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	43.07	39.63	41.35	0.5357	1.8757	0.88	2.7557	F	F	11.07	556.07	252	467.36522165142	0.050761005629805	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	49.99	38.46	44.225	0.4339	2.0039	0.87	2.8739	T	F	17.99	551.99	252	467.36522165142	0.17114098080661	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	345	60	48.69	41.3	44.995	0.4639	1.8539	0.85	2.7039	F	F	16.69	544.69	252	467.36522165142	0.14034983520752	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	50.54	38.93	44.735	0.5434	1.7334	0.84	2.5734	F	F	18.54	555.54	252	467.36522165142	0.18537577024049	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	44.1	40.95	42.525	0.448	1.818	0.97	2.788	F	F	12.1	553.1	252	467.36522165142	0.062391906611681	90	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	49.42	39.27	44.345	0.2663	1.2663	0.94	2.2063	F	F	17.42	554.42	252	467.36522165142	0.15714563907952	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	345	60	49.44	39.25	44.345	0.2663	1.4763	1.02	2.4963	F	F	17.44	553.44	252	467.36522165142	0.15762362283918	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	51.02	41.99	46.505	0.2869	1.2669	1.03	2.2969	F	F	19.02	562.02	252	467.36522165142	0.1983802602093	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	345	60	51.84	41.94	46.89	0.2676	1.1776	0.91	2.0876	F	F	19.84	541.84	252	467.36522165142	0.22182755720952	90	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-05 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	345	60	52.13	40.19	46.16	0.2665	0.9465	0.62	1.5665	F	F	20.13	564.13	252	467.36522165142	0.23048354984842	90	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	53.38	41.18	47.28	0.1865	0.8865	0.63	1.5165	F	F	21.38	563.38	252	467.36522165142	0.26986774915562	90	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	53.71	41.45	47.58	0.0334	0.5534	0.68	1.2334	F	F	21.71	553.71	252	467.36522165142	0.28079948844115	90	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	53.75	41.46	47.605	0.0334	0.4734	0.6	1.0734	F	F	21.75	555.75	252	467.36522165142	0.28213894027959	90	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	53.24	41.09	47.165	0.0188	0.5488	0.62	1.1688	F	F	21.24	565.24	252	467.36522165142	0.26529519357348	90	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	345	60	56.1	41.74	48.92	0.0106	0.4306	0.72	1.1506	F	F	24.1	564.1	252	467.36522165142	0.36567464024777	90	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	56.14	41.74	48.94	0.0106	0.3206	0.78	1.1006	F	F	24.14	579.14	252	467.36522165142	0.36716831055354	90	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	55.1	42.24	48.67	0.0697	0.2497	0.67	0.9197	F	F	23.1	577.1	252	467.36522165142	0.32904587431565	90	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	51.97	37.82	44.895	0.0371	0.2071	0.61	0.8171	F	F	19.97	563.97	252	467.36522165142	0.22568470861139	90	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	52.01	37.83	44.92	0.0371	0.2071	0.63	0.8371	F	F	20.01	564.01	252	467.36522165142	0.22687910061838	90	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	53.17	39.82	46.495	0.0062	0.1762	0.56	0.7362	F	F	21.17	572.17	252	467.36522165142	0.26302373641948	90	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	345	60	46.68	41.18	43.93	0.1809	0.6309	0.52	1.1509	F	F	14.68	540.68	252	467.36522165142	0.10054783261504	90	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	46.7	41.18	43.94	0.164	0.614	0.52	1.134	F	F	14.7	553.7	252	467.36522165142	0.10089850778303	90	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	53.3	42.23	47.765	0.076	0.476	0.51	0.986	F	F	21.3	563.3	252	467.36522165142	0.26725004117388	90	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	45.65	41.53	43.59	0.0278	0.3278	0.48	0.8078	F	F	13.65	562.65	252	467.36522165142	0.083666312576993	90	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	345	60	43.75	41.87	42.81	0.0242	0.3242	0.47	0.7942	F	F	11.75	560.75	252	467.36522165142	0.058227283170493	90	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	345	60	41.87	41.26	41.565	0.0477	0.2777	0.58	0.8577	F	F	9.87	544.87	252	467.36522165142	0.039456288545316	90	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M