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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 11, 2019

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DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 56.38°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 40.18°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.28°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.365 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 560 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.44 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 2.26 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 253 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.86 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 61 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 4 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 90.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-12 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	346	61	56.37992	40.17992	48.27992	0.010000000000048	1.44	0.82	2.26	F	F	24.37992	560.37992	253	467.86031254069	0.3649949384127	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	346	61	44.58	44.58	44.58	0.002	1.432	0.82	2.252	F	F	12.58	548.58	254	468.35352565462	0.088917966761933	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	56.07	44.94	50.505	0.0104	1.4404	0.82	2.2604	F	F	24.07	560.07	254	468.35352565462	0.35515180389821	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.89	40.2	48.045	0.0102	1.4402	0.82	2.2602	F	F	23.89	559.89	254	468.35352565462	0.34947850606367	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.86	39.82	47.84	0.0186	1.4486	0.82	2.2686	F	F	23.86	559.86	254	468.35352565462	0.34853617416063	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	346	61	56.36	41.14	48.75	0.0299	1.0699	0.82	1.8899	F	F	24.36	554.36	253	467.86031254069	0.36435951148871	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	56.09	39.34	47.715	0.0278	1.2678	0.82	2.0878	F	F	24.09	563.09	253	467.86031254069	0.35578418356206	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	56.43	40.52	48.475	0.0305	1.2705	0.82	2.0905	F	F	24.43	563.43	253	467.86031254069	0.36659407179798	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.93	41.35	48.64	0.0358	1.2758	0.82	2.0958	F	F	23.93	562.93	253	467.86031254069	0.35073639133538	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.92	41.19	48.555	0.0511	1.3311	0.82	2.1511	F	F	23.92	556.92	253	467.86031254069	0.35042176601633	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	346	61	56.02	41.21	48.615	0.0361	1.3561	0.82	2.1761	F	F	24.02	558.02	253	467.86031254069	0.35357260153534	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.68	40.82	48.25	0.0245	0.3645	0.82	1.1845	F	F	23.68	557.68	253	467.86031254069	0.34290196084661	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.52	40.89	48.205	0.0279	0.8579	0.82	1.6779	F	F	23.52	563.52	253	467.86031254069	0.33792286903592	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.41	41.34	48.375	0.0277	0.7777	0.82	1.5977	F	F	23.41	563.41	253	467.86031254069	0.3345160446778	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.92	41.16	48.54	0.0281	0.7981	0.82	1.6181	F	F	23.92	558.92	253	467.86031254069	0.35042176601633	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.77	41.09	48.43	0.0245	1.1045	0.82	1.9245	F	F	23.77	558.77	253	467.86031254069	0.345714798498	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.67	39.82	47.745	0.023	1.083	0.82	1.903	F	F	23.67	559.67	253	467.86031254069	0.34258995635827	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.6	41.13	47.365	0.018	1.388	0.65	2.038	F	F	21.6	547.6	253	467.86031254069	0.28057432869724	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	54.59	41.02	47.805	0.0207	1.4507	0.99	2.4407	F	F	22.59	560.59	253	467.86031254069	0.30956309770476	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	54.57	40.72	47.645	0.0344	1.4144	0.99	2.4044	F	F	22.57	564.57	253	467.86031254069	0.30896471593611	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	48.03	40.18	44.105	0.0878	1.6878	0.99	2.6778	F	F	16.03	552.03	253	467.86031254069	0.14590365899879	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	48	40.19	44.095	0.0924	1.5324	1.05	2.5824	F	F	16	547	253	467.86031254069	0.14532103714899	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.16	39.84	46.5	0.038	1.418	1	2.418	F	F	21.16	557.16	253	467.86031254069	0.26812557682166	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.46	40.4	46.93	0.0654	1.6554	1.03	2.6854	F	F	21.46	536.46	253	467.86031254069	0.27658321720857	91	2	3	4	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.46	40.35	46.905	0.0652	1.3952	1.38	2.7752	F	F	21.46	555.46	253	467.86031254069	0.27658321720857	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.26	40.81	47.035	0.0633	1.2833	1.43	2.7133	F	F	21.26	558.26	253	467.86031254069	0.27093028833313	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.05	40.83	46.94	0.0581	1.3781	1.45	2.8281	F	F	21.05	553.05	253	467.86031254069	0.26505734296425	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.1	41.53	47.315	0.0686	1.4486	1.38	2.8286	F	F	21.1	552.1	253	467.86031254069	0.26644978368466	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	54.01	41.78	47.895	0.0572	1.4272	1.5	2.9272	F	F	22.01	549.01	253	467.86031254069	0.29242012155096	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	346	61	52.71	42.49	47.6	0.0895	1.4495	1.34	2.7895	F	F	20.71	540.71	253	467.86031254069	0.25568766511923	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	52.42	39.45	45.935	0.1194	1.3894	1.3	2.6894	F	F	20.42	551.42	253	467.86031254069	0.24783454803227	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.3	40.22	46.76	0.1029	1.4429	1.45	2.8929	F	F	21.3	549.3	253	467.86031254069	0.27205625257234	91	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	49.65	40.78	45.215	0.0388	0.8588	1.39	2.2488	F	F	17.65	546.65	253	467.86031254069	0.17969046256193	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	49.66	40.75	45.205	0.0388	0.8888	1.65	2.5388	F	F	17.66	545.66	253	467.86031254069	0.17991318132412	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	51.05	41.62	46.335	0.0854	0.7254	1.66	2.3854	F	F	19.05	556.05	253	467.86031254069	0.21253735622602	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	346	61	53.9	42.38	48.14	0.0651	0.8051	1.35	2.1551	F	F	21.9	538.9	253	467.86031254069	0.28921926644027	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.55	40.97	48.26	0.0219	0.6919	0.9	1.5919	F	F	23.55	562.55	253	467.86031254069	0.33885432498392	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	56.38	42.51	49.445	0.0158	0.5458	0.99	1.5358	F	F	24.38	562.38	253	467.86031254069	0.3649974910767	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.25	41.6	48.425	0.0141	0.3441	0.9	1.2441	F	F	23.25	552.25	253	467.86031254069	0.32958494114839	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	55.3	41.61	48.455	0.0141	0.3441	0.74	1.0841	F	F	23.3	554.3	253	467.86031254069	0.33112278367455	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	54.15	41.41	47.78	0.1172	0.5172	0.77	1.2872	F	F	22.15	562.15	253	467.86031254069	0.29651756555319	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	346	61	58.71	41.51	50.11	0.0659	0.2059	1.01	1.2159	F	F	26.71	565.71	253	467.86031254069	0.44143234307925	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	58.75	41.52	50.135	0.0586	0.1986	0.96	1.1586	F	F	26.75	580.75	253	467.86031254069	0.44277269294046	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	57.65	41.27	49.46	0.0086	0.1786	0.75	0.9286	F	F	25.65	577.65	253	467.86031254069	0.40620360325778	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	49.07	39.75	44.41	0.0072	0.1272	0.7	0.8272	F	F	17.07	556.07	253	467.86031254069	0.16706933193555	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	42.65	39.76	41.205	0.0051	0.1251	0.72	0.8451	F	F	10.65	549.65	253	467.86031254069	0.065307936724879	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	346	61	42.84	40.79	41.815	0.0012	0.1112	0.63	0.7412	F	F	10.84	557.84	253	467.86031254069	0.067391464626282	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M