Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 9, 2019

[ Sunday, September 8, 2019 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 10, 2019 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/10/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.82°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.096 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 578 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.04 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.35 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.51 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.86 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 251 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.87 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 59 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 4 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 80.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-10 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	344	59	47.78996	41.84006	44.81501	0	1.04	1.35	0.51	1.86	F	F	15.78996	577.78996	251	466.86824583767	0	0.096212224228883	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	42.87	42.87	42.87	0	0.0068	0.3168	0.51	0.8268	F	F	10.87	572.87	252	467.36522165142	0	0.034862046729128	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	49.72	41.09	45.405	0	0.3676	0.6776	0.51	1.1876	F	F	17.72	579.72	252	467.36522165142	0	0.13488255298809	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	49.76	40.38	45.07	0	0.7182	1.0282	0.51	1.5382	F	F	17.76	579.76	252	467.36522165142	0	0.13578296004873	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	44.56	40.53	42.545	0	0.7125	1.0225	0.51	1.5325	F	F	12.56	574.56	252	467.36522165142	0	0.050682514101453	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-09 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	344	59	43.53	41.33	42.43	0	0.9509	1.0909	0.51	1.6009	F	F	11.53	566.53	251	466.86824583767	0	0.040477727708096	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	45.68	39.34	42.51	0	1.033	1.513	0.51	2.023	F	F	13.68	577.68	251	466.86824583767	0	0.063991557251844	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.11	39.74	44.925	0	1.0254	1.5054	0.51	2.0154	F	F	18.11	582.11	251	466.86824583767	0	0.14383655460331	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	43.99	41.16	42.575	0	1.3171	1.7971	0.51	2.3071	F	F	11.99	575.99	251	466.86824583767	0	0.044808567952134	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	43.71	40.81	42.26	0	1.1924	1.7324	0.51	2.2424	F	F	11.71	570.71	251	466.86824583767	0	0.042130238032293	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	344	59	43.27	40.61	41.94	0	1.1327	1.6227	0.51	2.1327	F	F	11.27	575.27	251	466.86824583767	0	0.038183784725207	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	344	59	47.04	39.44	43.24	0	1.3844	1.9044	0.51	2.4144	F	F	15.04	555.04	251	466.86824583767	0	0.083618637318067	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	48.17	38.56	43.365	0	1.0959	1.9659	0.51	2.4759	F	F	16.17	573.17	251	466.86824583767	0	0.10310089256294	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	48.38	38.48	43.43	0	1.0097	1.9297	0.51	2.4397	F	F	16.38	577.38	251	466.86824583767	0	0.10705719389251	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	42.47	40.43	41.45	0	0.9631	1.9031	0.51	2.4131	F	F	10.47	572.47	251	466.86824583767	0	0.031780664055261	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	49.05	40.02	44.535	0	0.8373	1.7073	0.51	2.2173	F	F	17.05	578.05	251	466.86824583767	0	0.12040617797936	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	47.92	39.19	43.555	0	0.9416	1.9316	0.51	2.4416	F	F	15.92	566.92	251	466.86824583767	0	0.098530347203233	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	49.65	39.87	44.76	0	0.9047	1.8147	0.43	2.2447	F	F	17.65	560.65	251	466.86824583767	0	0.13331668661275	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	43.69	40.87	42.28	0	0.7252	1.5352	0.49	2.0252	F	F	11.69	569.69	251	466.86824583767	0	0.041943979945516	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	48.58	39.69	44.135	0	0.894	1.854	0.49	2.344	F	F	16.58	573.58	251	466.86824583767	0	0.11092547875827	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	46.6	39.97	43.285	0	0.5466	1.4466	0.49	1.9366	F	F	14.6	569.6	251	466.86824583767	0	0.076828550544501	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	344	59	46.59	39.84	43.215	0	0.5825	1.7125	0.52	2.2325	F	F	14.59	568.59	251	466.86824583767	0	0.076679236662947	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	52.26	39.06	45.66	0	0.3546	1.5146	0.5	2.0146	F	F	20.26	576.26	251	466.86824583767	0	0.20023004136657	91	1	3	4	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	344	59	45.3	41.85	43.575	0	0.4671	1.3271	0.49	1.8171	F	F	13.3	555.3	251	466.86824583767	0	0.059201758091023	91	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-05 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.56	40.85	45.705	0	0.3988	0.8488	0.45	1.2988	F	F	18.56	576.56	251	466.86824583767	0	0.15465458848151	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	51.73	41.48	46.605	0	0.3401	0.8701	0.46	1.3301	F	F	19.73	574.73	251	466.86824583767	0	0.18522691408651	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	47.05	41.54	44.295	0	0.299	0.699	0.5	1.199	F	F	15.05	565.05	251	466.86824583767	0	0.083778018330432	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	47.08	41.54	44.31	0	0.299	0.569	0.47	1.039	F	F	15.08	567.08	251	466.86824583767	0	0.084257525823094	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.87	41.48	46.175	0	0.3823	0.6823	0.47	1.1523	F	F	18.87	576.87	251	466.86824583767	0	0.1624111872333	91	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	56.35	42.64	49.495	0	0.1254	0.6054	0.53	1.1354	F	F	24.35	573.35	251	466.86824583767	0	0.33802872586263	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	56.39	42.64	49.515	0	0.1254	0.5954	0.49	1.0854	F	F	24.39	588.39	251	466.86824583767	0	0.33954207147951	91	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	54.25	41.4	47.825	0	0.1013	0.3713	0.48	0.8513	F	F	22.25	587.25	251	466.86824583767	0	0.26271658402126	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-04 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	49.98	41.73	45.855	0	0.0834	0.3134	0.47	0.7834	F	F	17.98	576.98	251	466.86824583767	0	0.14080849291481	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.03	41.76	45.895	0	0.0834	0.3434	0.46	0.8034	F	F	18.03	577.03	251	466.86824583767	0	0.14196798843514	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	49.76	40.95	45.355	0	0.099	0.289	0.44	0.729	F	F	17.76	583.76	251	466.86824583767	0	0.13578296004873	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	344	59	45.77	41.49	43.63	0	0.3068	0.4768	0.49	0.9668	F	F	13.77	558.77	251	466.86824583767	0	0.065168818829356	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	45.8	41.53	43.665	0	0.3068	0.4768	0.49	0.9668	F	F	13.8	571.8	251	466.86824583767	0	0.065564939400055	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	48.93	39.77	44.35	0	0.2521	0.4121	0.5	0.9121	F	F	16.93	574.93	251	466.86824583767	0	0.11793315998431	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	53.79	42.49	48.14	0	0.2277	0.3077	0.47	0.7777	F	F	21.79	581.79	251	466.86824583767	0	0.2474419083555	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	53.83	42.51	48.17	0	0.2277	0.3077	0.46	0.7677	F	F	21.83	581.83	251	466.86824583767	0	0.24875106239179	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.95	40.1	45.525	0	0.1819	0.2419	0.57	0.8119	F	F	18.95	567.95	251	466.86824583767	0	0.16445319219156	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-03 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.77	40.16	45.465	0	0.116	0.316	0.48	0.796	F	F	18.77	567.77	251	466.86824583767	0	0.15988192955143	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-02 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	50.79	40.15	45.47	0	0.1117	0.3117	0.5	0.8117	F	F	18.79	579.79	251	466.86824583767	0	0.16038571423668	91	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	54	42.77	48.385	0	0.0513	0.1413	0.5	0.6413	F	F	22	582	251	466.86824583767	0	0.25435580224904	91	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	51.48	43.47	47.475	0	0.0087	0.0187	0.61	0.6287	F	F	19.48	574.48	251	466.86824583767	0	0.17839838926435	91	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-09-02 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	344	59	47.08	43.77	45.425	0	0.0031	0.0131	0.59	0.6031	F	F	15.08	565.08	251	466.86824583767	0	0.084257525823094	91	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-09-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	344	59	47.94	46.55	47.245	0	0	0.02	0.54	0.56	F	F	15.94	574.94	251	466.86824583767	0	0.098890457659773	91	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L