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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 16, 2019

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DAY 320 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/17/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 51.36°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 45.40°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.142 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 604 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.04 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.83 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 227 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.36 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 35 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 5 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-17 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	320	35	51.36008	45.39992	48.38	0.04000000000002	0.04000000000002	0.79	0.83000000000002	F	F	19.36008	604.36008	227	454.35627508706	0.14189932638714	95	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	47.09	47.09	47.09	0.0066	0.0066	0.79	0.7966	F	F	15.09	600.09	228	454.90070616754	0.068741157274285	95	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.09	47.83	53.46	0.0196	0.0196	0.79	0.8096	F	F	27.09	612.09	228	454.90070616754	0.37276761914676	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.36	47.49	53.425	0.023	0.023	0.79	0.813	F	F	27.36	612.36	228	454.90070616754	0.38268472988712	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	57.65	47.43	52.54	0.0126	0.0126	0.79	0.8026	F	F	25.65	610.65	228	454.90070616754	0.32142899897227	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.3	47.52	53.41	0.0147	0.0147	0.79	0.8047	F	F	27.3	600.3	227	454.35627508706	0.38047401286309	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.37	45.8	52.585	0.0118	0.0318	0.79	0.8218	F	F	27.37	612.37	227	454.35627508706	0.38305355670787	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.15	47.12	53.135	0.0074	0.0274	0.79	0.8174	F	F	27.15	612.15	227	454.35627508706	0.37496440941298	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.99	47.91	53.95	0.0041	0.0241	0.79	0.8141	F	F	27.99	612.99	227	454.35627508706	0.40611523865716	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.42	48.33	54.375	0.0007	0.0007	0.79	0.7907	F	F	28.42	609.42	227	454.35627508706	0.42230844497753	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.99	48.3	54.145	0.0007	0.0107	0.79	0.8007	F	F	27.99	613.99	227	454.35627508706	0.40611523865716	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.98	48.91	54.945	0.001	0.011	0.79	0.801	F	F	28.98	599.98	227	454.35627508706	0.44359164550678	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.92	48.48	54.2	0.0016	0.0116	0.79	0.8016	F	F	27.92	610.92	227	454.35627508706	0.40349349339487	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.26	48.71	54.485	0.0019	0.0019	0.79	0.7919	F	F	28.26	611.26	227	454.35627508706	0.41626616094135	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59.68	48.59	54.135	0.0012	0.0012	0.79	0.7912	F	F	27.68	609.68	227	454.35627508706	0.39453820537424	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	61.93	47.8	54.865	0.0028	0.0128	0.79	0.8028	F	F	29.93	609.93	227	454.35627508706	0.48003931512	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	320	35	62.02	49.24	55.63	0.0022	0.0222	0.79	0.8122	F	F	30.02	615.02	227	454.35627508706	0.48350576076186	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.29	48.09	54.19	0.0025	0.0125	0.79	0.8025	F	F	28.29	592.29	227	454.35627508706	0.41739762854083	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.37	48.37	54.37	0.0074	0.0174	0.81	0.8274	F	F	28.37	607.37	227	454.35627508706	0.42041819608977	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.05	48.42	54.235	0.008	0.018	0.81	0.828	F	F	28.05	607.05	227	454.35627508706	0.40836580865426	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	53.67	47.56	50.615	0.0147	0.0247	0.81	0.8347	F	F	21.67	600.67	227	454.35627508706	0.19809900777223	95	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	54.05	47.55	50.8	0.0145	0.0245	0.82	0.8445	F	F	22.05	603.05	227	454.35627508706	0.20848447000429	95	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	61.32	48.98	55.15	0.0136	0.0236	0.8	0.8236	F	F	29.32	609.32	227	454.35627508706	0.45659752874791	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	62.76	47.84	55.3	0.0031	0.0131	0.8	0.8131	F	F	30.76	598.76	227	454.35627508706	0.51203099664556	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	62.76	48.13	55.445	0.0033	0.0133	0.83	0.8433	F	F	30.76	610.76	227	454.35627508706	0.51203099664556	95	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	63.25	48.61	55.93	0.0038	0.0038	0.83	0.8338	F	F	31.25	612.25	227	454.35627508706	0.53089452963092	95	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.18	47.9	54.04	0.0241	0.0241	0.83	0.8541	F	F	28.18	602.18	227	454.35627508706	0.41325232841967	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	60.56	48.26	54.41	0.0241	0.0241	0.84	0.8641	F	F	28.56	599.56	227	454.35627508706	0.42761053332492	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	58	46.92	52.46	0.0614	0.0614	0.83	0.8914	F	F	26	605	227	454.35627508706	0.33364183489473	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	61.57	48.3	54.935	0.103	0.153	0.59	0.743	F	F	29.57	606.57	227	454.35627508706	0.46619123302655	95	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	61.57	48.3	54.935	0.103	0.153	0.69	0.843	F	F	29.57	607.57	227	454.35627508706	0.46619123302655	95	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	59	47.25	53.125	0.7538	0.7738	0.7	1.4738	F	F	27	604	227	454.35627508706	0.36948019555344	95	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	58.3	44.69	51.495	0.03	0.04	0.7	0.74	F	F	26.3	601.3	227	454.35627508706	0.34425269349175	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	58.29	44.69	51.49	0.03	0.04	0.73	0.77	F	F	26.29	602.29	227	454.35627508706	0.34389695915029	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	55.76	43.54	49.65	0.0387	0.0487	0.77	0.8187	F	F	23.76	597.76	227	454.35627508706	0.2590150361662	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	58.71	44.42	51.565	0.0178	0.0578	0.75	0.8078	F	F	26.71	587.71	227	454.35627508706	0.35895318679525	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	58.7	44.41	51.555	0.0178	0.0578	0.79	0.8478	F	F	26.7	596.7	227	454.35627508706	0.35859203599518	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	58.5	44.73	51.615	0.0197	0.0597	0.78	0.8397	F	F	26.5	596.5	227	454.35627508706	0.35139594039423	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	54.33	43.33	48.83	0.7267	1.0267	0.81	1.8367	F	F	22.33	580.33	227	454.35627508706	0.21633792912646	95	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	54.34	43.33	48.835	0.7267	1.0267	0.76	1.7867	F	F	22.34	578.34	227	454.35627508706	0.21662153494009	95	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	52.47	43.34	47.905	0.7331	1.0331	0.95	1.9831	F	F	20.47	577.47	227	454.35627508706	0.16740546479046	95	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	320	35	53.38	43.39	48.385	0.3041	0.4541	0.93	1.3841	F	F	21.38	561.38	227	454.35627508706	0.19038704209912	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	56.63	44.95	50.79	0.0532	0.0932	1.09	1.1832	F	F	24.63	576.63	227	454.35627508706	0.28695840246241	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	52.23	43.85	48.04	0.0442	0.1042	1.17	1.2742	F	F	20.23	570.23	227	454.35627508706	0.16165468731583	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	45.27	43.24	44.255	0.0482	0.2082	1.04	1.2482	F	F	13.27	562.27	227	454.35627508706	0.048288457275935	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	320	35	45.04	43.69	44.365	0.0296	0.1896	0.99	1.1796	F	F	13.04	562.04	227	454.35627508706	0.046091759507847	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	320	35	45.51	45.26	45.385	0.0216	0.1816	1.03	1.2116	F	F	13.51	561.51	227	454.35627508706	0.050668844814026	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M