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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 16, 2019

[ Thursday, August 15, 2019 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 17, 2019 ]

DAY 320 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/17/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.142
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 604

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 227
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-17 04:00:12OBSERVATION20193203551.3600845.3999248.3800.040000000000020.040000000000020.790.83000000000002FF19.36008604.36008227454.35627508706 00.1418993263871495 13515222.5DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193203547.0947.0947.0900.00660.00660.790.7966FF15.09600.09228454.9007061675400.0687411572742859513515222.5DRYL
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193203559.0947.8353.4600.01960.01960.790.8096FF27.09612.09228454.9007061675400.372767619146769523515225DRYL
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193203559.3647.4953.42500.0230.0230.790.813FF27.36612.36228454.9007061675400.382684729887129523515225DRYL
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193203557.6547.4352.5400.01260.01260.790.8026FF25.65610.65228454.9007061675400.321428998972279523515225DRYL
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193203559.347.5253.4100.01470.01470.790.8047FF27.3600.3227454.3562750870600.380474012863099523515225DRYL
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193203559.3745.852.58500.01180.03180.790.8218FF27.37612.37227454.3562750870600.383053556707879523515225DRYL
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193203559.1547.1253.13500.00740.02740.790.8174FF27.15612.15227454.3562750870600.374964409412989523515225DRYL
2019-08-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193203559.9947.9153.9500.00410.02410.790.8141FF27.99612.99227454.3562750870600.406115238657169523515225DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193203560.4248.3354.37500.00070.00070.790.7907FF28.42609.42227454.3562750870600.422308444977539523515225DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193203559.9948.354.14500.00070.01070.790.8007FF27.99613.99227454.3562750870600.406115238657169523515225DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193203560.9848.9154.94500.0010.0110.790.801FF28.98599.98227454.3562750870600.443591645506789523515225DRYL
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193203559.9248.4854.200.00160.01160.790.8016FF27.92610.92227454.3562750870600.403493493394879523515225DRYL
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193203560.2648.7154.48500.00190.00190.790.7919FF28.26611.26227454.3562750870600.416266160941359523515225DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193203559.6848.5954.13500.00120.00120.790.7912FF27.68609.68227454.3562750870600.394538205374249523515225DRYL
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193203561.9347.854.86500.00280.01280.790.8028FF29.93609.93227454.3562750870600.480039315129523515225DRYL
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193203562.0249.2455.6300.00220.02220.790.8122FF30.02615.02227454.3562750870600.483505760761869523515225DRYL
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193203560.2948.0954.1900.00250.01250.790.8025FF28.29592.29227454.3562750870600.417397628540839523415222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193203560.3748.3754.3700.00740.01740.810.8274FF28.37607.37227454.3562750870600.420418196089779523515225DRYL
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193203560.0548.4254.23500.0080.0180.810.828FF28.05607.05227454.3562750870600.408365808654269523515225DRYL
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193203553.6747.5650.61500.01470.02470.810.8347FF21.67600.67227454.3562750870600.198099007772239513515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193203554.0547.5550.800.01450.02450.820.8445FF22.05603.05227454.3562750870600.208484470004299513515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST20193203561.3248.9855.1500.01360.02360.80.8236FF29.32609.32227454.3562750870600.456597528747919523515225DRYL
2019-08-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193203562.7647.8455.300.00310.01310.80.8131FF30.76598.76227454.3562750870600.512030996645569533415225DRYL
2019-08-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193203562.7648.1355.44500.00330.01330.830.8433FF30.76610.76227454.3562750870600.512030996645569533515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193203563.2548.6155.9300.00380.00380.830.8338FF31.25612.25227454.3562750870600.530894529630929533515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193203560.1847.954.0400.02410.02410.830.8541FF28.18602.18227454.3562750870600.413252328419679523515225DRYL
2019-08-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193203560.5648.2654.4100.02410.02410.840.8641FF28.56599.56227454.3562750870600.427610533324929523515225DRYL
2019-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST2019320355846.9252.4600.06140.06140.830.8914FF26605227454.3562750870600.333641834894739523515225DRYL
2019-08-12 00:00:13FORECAST20193203561.5748.354.93500.1030.1530.590.743FF29.57606.57227454.3562750870600.466191233026559523525250DRYMH
2019-08-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193203561.5748.354.93500.1030.1530.690.843FF29.57607.57227454.3562750870600.466191233026559523525250DRYMH
2019-08-11 16:00:11FORECAST2019320355947.2553.12500.75380.77380.71.4738FF27604227454.3562750870600.369480195553449523535275DRYVH
2019-08-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193203558.344.6951.49500.030.040.70.74FF26.3601.3227454.3562750870600.344252693491759523515225DRYL
2019-08-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193203558.2944.6951.4900.030.040.730.77FF26.29602.29227454.3562750870600.343896959150299523515225DRYL
2019-08-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193203555.7643.5449.6500.03870.04870.770.8187FF23.76597.76227454.3562750870600.25901503616629523415222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193203558.7144.4251.56500.01780.05780.750.8078FF26.71587.71227454.3562750870600.358953186795259523415222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193203558.744.4151.55500.01780.05780.790.8478FF26.7596.7227454.3562750870600.358592035995189523415222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193203558.544.7351.61500.01970.05970.780.8397FF26.5596.5227454.3562750870600.351395940394239523415222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193203554.3343.3348.8300.72671.02670.811.8367FF22.33580.33227454.3562750870600.216337929126469513445280DRYVH
2019-08-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193203554.3443.3348.83500.72671.02670.761.7867FF22.34578.34227454.3562750870600.216621534940099513445280DRYVH
2019-08-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193203552.4743.3447.90500.73311.03310.951.9831FF20.47577.47227454.3562750870600.167405464790469513445280DRYVH
2019-08-10 00:00:13FORECAST20193203553.3843.3948.38500.30410.45410.931.3841FF21.38561.38227454.3562750870600.190387042099129513425240DRYM
2019-08-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193203556.6344.9550.7900.05320.09321.091.1832FF24.63576.63227454.3562750870600.286958402462419523425245DRYM
2019-08-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193203552.2343.8548.0400.04420.10421.171.2742FF20.23570.23227454.3562750870600.161654687315839513425240DRYM
2019-08-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193203545.2743.2444.25500.04820.20821.041.2482FF13.27562.27227454.3562750870600.0482884572759359513425240DRYM
2019-08-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193203545.0443.6944.36500.02960.18960.991.1796FF13.04562.04227454.3562750870600.0460917595078479513425240DRYM
2019-08-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193203545.5145.2645.38500.02160.18161.031.2116FF13.51561.51227454.3562750870600.0506688448140269513425240DRYM