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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 15, 2019

[ Wednesday, August 14, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, August 16, 2019 ]

DAY 319 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/16/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.449
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 619

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 226
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-16 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193193462.0900646.5999854.345020000.790.79FF30.09006619.09006226453.80977123269 00.4488511770360393 23515225DRYL
2019-08-16 00:00:12FORECAST20193193450.1450.1450.1400.00410.00410.790.7941FF18.14607.14227454.3562750870600.109926911145199313515222.5DRYL
2019-08-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193193462.3748.9355.6500.01580.01580.790.8058FF30.37619.37227454.3562750870600.459043319975969323515225DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193193457.8849.3253.600.00380.00380.790.7938FF25.88614.88227454.3562750870600.303143423707569323515225DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193193462.7549.0855.91500.00690.00690.790.7969FF30.75619.75227454.3562750870600.472920391793039323515225DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193193462.749.4356.06500.00510.00510.790.7951FF30.7604.7226453.8097712326900.471092215737259323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193193462.3448.4255.3800.00840.00840.790.7984FF30.34617.34226453.8097712326900.457949661341899323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193193462.3848.9655.6700.00160.00160.790.7916FF30.38617.38226453.8097712326900.459407942160629323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193193461.4448.8655.1500.0010.0010.790.791FF29.44616.44226453.8097712326900.425324537102289323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193193459.3249.9754.64500.00240.01240.790.8024FF27.32614.32226453.8097712326900.350833127384519323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193193462.6649.9256.2900.00560.01560.790.8056FF30.66618.66226453.8097712326900.469630111514539323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193193459.0149.7554.3800.00080.01080.790.8008FF27.01598.01226453.8097712326900.340332861566739323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193193462.3749.1955.7800.00080.03080.790.8208FF30.37613.37226453.8097712326900.459043319975969323515225DRYL
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193193461.5848.8755.22500.0070.0270.790.817FF29.58612.58226453.8097712326900.430371885649099323515225DRYL
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193193461.7648.7655.2600.00830.02830.790.8183FF29.76612.76226453.8097712326900.436877972222259323515225DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193193462.5749.0655.81500.00870.03870.790.8287FF30.57614.57226453.8097712326900.46634190370919323515225DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST20193193462.1549.1455.64500.00560.01560.790.8056FF30.15614.15226453.8097712326900.451030886220519323515225DRYL
2019-08-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193193462.6849.7956.23500.00790.01790.790.8079FF30.68601.68226453.8097712326900.470361113679959323515225DRYL
2019-08-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193193462.1149.3355.7200.00790.01790.820.8379FF30.11614.11226453.8097712326900.449576124142879323515225DRYL
2019-08-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193193462.7949.0155.900.00250.01250.820.8325FF30.79614.79226453.8097712326900.474383345305059323515225DRYL
2019-08-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193193457.248.1452.6700.00110.01110.820.8311FF25.2608.2226453.8097712326900.281678415774989323515225DRYL
2019-08-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193193456.9448.3952.66500.00150.01150.830.8415FF24.94604.94226453.8097712326900.27366914972549323515225DRYL
2019-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193193461.8548.1655.00500.00280.02280.810.8328FF29.85612.85226453.8097712326900.440137542834869323515225DRYL
2019-08-12 00:00:13FORECAST20193193460.6347.0953.8600.05270.06270.580.6427FF28.63610.63226453.8097712326900.396386551743719323515225DRYL
2019-08-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193193460.6346.9553.7900.05190.06190.680.7419FF28.63611.63226453.8097712326900.396386551743719323515225DRYL
2019-08-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193193461.5448.7955.16500.01620.02620.690.7162FF29.54610.54226453.8097712326900.428928587321099323515225DRYL
2019-08-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193193460.145.8152.95500.00840.02840.680.7084FF28.1609.1226453.8097712326900.377745727909819323515225DRYL
2019-08-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193193460.0845.852.9400.00840.02840.710.7384FF28.08610.08226453.8097712326900.377047542034799323515225DRYL
2019-08-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193193459.8545.3952.6200.00380.06380.720.7838FF27.85607.85226453.8097712326900.369047802064769323515225DRYL
2019-08-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193193456.1644.1550.15500.04360.06360.730.7936FF24.16595.16226453.8097712326900.250337440067979323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193193456.1544.1550.1500.04360.06360.770.8336FF24.15604.15226453.8097712326900.250045304381779323515225DRYL
2019-08-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193193456.4444.4850.4600.03920.04920.770.8192FF24.44604.44226453.8097712326900.258590051354599323515225DRYL
2019-08-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193193450.542.9946.74500.29340.30340.811.1134FF18.5591.5226453.8097712326900.116279344470549313425240DRYM
2019-08-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193193450.54346.7500.29340.30340.761.0634FF18.5589.5226453.8097712326900.116279344470549313425240DRYM
2019-08-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193193451.242.9447.0700.29330.31330.941.2533FF19.2591.2226453.8097712326900.129364797383639313425240DRYM
2019-08-10 00:00:13FORECAST20193193457.6641.5449.600.13110.16110.921.0811FF25.66573.66226453.8097712326900.29611910910889323425245DRYM
2019-08-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193193456.9142.1449.52500.00920.04921.081.1292FF24.91585.91226453.8097712326900.272752296166059323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193193456.7742.5549.6600.02280.08281.151.2328FF24.77583.77226453.8097712326900.268493876952329323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193193454.9745.3250.14500.14910.199111.1991FF22.97582.97226453.8097712326900.216875593309289313425240DRYM
2019-08-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193193454.9745.3150.1400.14910.19910.951.1491FF22.97582.97226453.8097712326900.216875593309289313425240DRYM
2019-08-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193193454.4844.2549.36500.14920.17921.011.1892FF22.48582.48226453.8097712326900.203885010407269313425240DRYM
2019-08-09 00:00:12FORECAST20193193455.843.4649.6300.12450.13451.161.2945FF23.8576.8226453.8097712326900.239935334000469313425240DRYM
2019-08-08 20:00:11FORECAST20193193455.843.4649.6300.08590.09591.451.5459FF23.8584.8226453.8097712326900.239935334000469313425240DRYM
2019-08-08 16:00:11FORECAST20193193455.7743.9249.84500.01840.02841.411.4384FF23.77589.77226453.8097712326900.239079243956019313415220DRYL
2019-08-08 12:00:11FORECAST20193193458.147.3552.72500.00080.00081.511.5108FF26.1595.1226453.8097712326900.310241229578739323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-08 08:00:11FORECAST20193193449.4447.3548.39500.00030.00031.811.8103FF17.44588.44226453.8097712326900.098293650629349313415220DRYL
2019-08-08 04:00:12FORECAST20193193450.7149.8150.260001.651.65FF18.71589.71226453.8097712326900.120102673683179313415220DRYL