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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 17, 2019

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DAY 321 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/18/2019 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 50.88°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 42.80°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 46.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.112 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 594 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.10 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.89 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 228 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.90 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 36 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-18 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2019	321	36	50.88002	42.8	46.84001	0.060000000000002	0.1	0.79	0.89	F	F	18.88002	593.88002	228	454.90070616754	0.11183217043632	92	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	47.29	47.29	47.29	0.0029	0.0429	0.79	0.8329	F	F	15.29	590.29	229	455.44307233574	0.057615214569699	92	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	59.12	47.89	53.505	0.0164	0.0564	0.79	0.8464	F	F	27.12	602.12	229	455.44307233574	0.34606098483078	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	53.35	44.95	49.15	0.0175	0.0575	0.79	0.8475	F	F	21.35	596.35	229	455.44307233574	0.16586225535976	92	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	321	36	58.62	45.9	52.26	0.0201	0.0601	0.79	0.8501	F	F	26.62	601.62	229	455.44307233574	0.32788369544542	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	59.6	46.46	53.03	0.0249	0.0349	0.79	0.8249	F	F	27.6	598.6	228	454.90070616754	0.36385189022959	92	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	59.33	44.94	52.135	0.0216	0.0416	0.79	0.8316	F	F	27.33	610.33	228	454.90070616754	0.35380550776422	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	58.33	46.69	52.51	0.0176	0.0376	0.79	0.8276	F	F	26.33	609.33	228	454.90070616754	0.31752125188389	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	321	36	57.97	47.16	52.565	0.0173	0.0373	0.79	0.8273	F	F	25.97	608.97	228	454.90070616754	0.30485433619617	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	57.65	46.5	52.075	0.0304	0.0504	0.79	0.8404	F	F	25.65	608.65	228	454.90070616754	0.29378712870414	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	321	36	57.46	46.47	51.965	0.0318	0.0418	0.79	0.8318	F	F	25.46	607.46	228	454.90070616754	0.2873050985341	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	57.11	46.28	51.695	0.0251	0.0351	0.79	0.8251	F	F	25.11	596.11	228	454.90070616754	0.27554469530427	92	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	56.26	46.05	51.155	0.0238	0.0538	0.79	0.8438	F	F	24.26	607.26	228	454.90070616754	0.24800629754422	92	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	56.99	46.19	51.59	0.012	0.042	0.79	0.832	F	F	24.99	607.99	228	454.90070616754	0.27156770090462	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	55.33	46.79	51.06	0.0185	0.0385	0.79	0.8285	F	F	23.33	607.33	228	454.90070616754	0.21964255397005	92	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	56.55	47.41	51.98	0.0106	0.0106	0.79	0.8006	F	F	24.55	604.55	228	454.90070616754	0.25723406050214	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	57.18	47.41	52.295	0.012	0.022	0.79	0.812	F	F	25.18	610.18	228	454.90070616754	0.27787774643882	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	55.43	47.23	51.33	0.034	0.044	0.79	0.834	F	F	23.43	594.43	228	454.90070616754	0.22260024943843	92	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	60.72	47.16	53.94	0.0229	0.0329	0.79	0.8229	F	F	28.72	610.72	228	454.90070616754	0.40646020238807	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	60.42	47.02	53.72	0.0224	0.0224	0.79	0.8124	F	F	28.42	610.42	228	454.90070616754	0.39491479192133	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	321	36	58.68	46.65	52.665	0.0223	0.0223	0.79	0.8123	F	F	26.68	607.68	228	454.90070616754	0.33004462757014	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	58.65	47.9	53.275	0.0113	0.0113	0.8	0.8113	F	F	26.65	607.65	228	454.90070616754	0.32896344744869	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	321	36	64.03	48.11	56.07	0.0119	0.0219	0.8	0.8219	F	F	32.03	618.03	228	454.90070616754	0.53701768328548	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	65.42	46.63	56.025	0.0183	0.0183	0.8	0.8183	F	F	33.42	596.42	228	454.90070616754	0.59147011024986	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	65.37	46.21	55.79	0.0003	0.0103	0.82	0.8303	F	F	33.37	611.37	228	454.90070616754	0.5895352641149	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	65.9	47.91	56.905	0.0003	0.0203	0.81	0.8303	F	F	33.9	611.9	228	454.90070616754	0.6099247896207	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	63.92	47.58	55.75	0.0097	0.0297	0.81	0.8397	F	F	31.92	603.92	228	454.90070616754	0.5326647984354	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	63.91	47.57	55.74	0.0097	0.0297	0.82	0.8497	F	F	31.91	605.91	228	454.90070616754	0.53226887996453	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	64.38	48.56	56.47	0.0098	0.0298	0.8	0.8298	F	F	32.38	612.38	228	454.90070616754	0.55083581687083	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	66.14	49.29	57.715	0.0042	0.0142	0.8	0.8142	F	F	34.14	604.14	228	454.90070616754	0.6190628611837	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	66.13	49.28	57.705	0.0042	0.0142	0.83	0.8442	F	F	34.13	616.13	228	454.90070616754	0.61868339135912	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	67.12	50.46	58.79	0.0042	0.0042	0.83	0.8342	F	F	35.12	618.12	228	454.90070616754	0.65564356871951	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	321	36	63.87	48.52	56.195	0.0233	0.0433	0.83	0.8733	F	F	31.87	604.87	228	454.90070616754	0.53068489075599	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	64.07	49.14	56.605	0.0233	0.0433	0.84	0.8833	F	F	32.07	603.07	228	454.90070616754	0.53859947989679	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	321	36	61.13	46.16	53.645	0.0233	0.0833	0.83	0.9133	F	F	29.13	605.13	228	454.90070616754	0.42236941438217	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	64.18	49.46	56.82	0.0007	0.1507	0.59	0.7407	F	F	32.18	610.18	228	454.90070616754	0.54294619863923	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	64.17	49.47	56.82	0.0007	0.1507	0.69	0.8407	F	F	32.17	611.17	228	454.90070616754	0.54255124670698	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	56.36	47.82	52.09	0.0706	0.8406	0.7	1.5406	F	F	24.36	599.36	228	454.90070616754	0.25116822972071	92	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	59.8	46.19	52.995	0.0234	0.0634	0.7	0.7634	F	F	27.8	599.8	228	454.90070616754	0.3713548980577	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	59.79	46.19	52.99	0.0234	0.0634	0.73	0.7934	F	F	27.79	600.79	228	454.90070616754	0.37097855732242	92	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	55.41	45.35	50.38	0.0591	0.0991	0.78	0.8791	F	F	23.41	592.41	228	454.90070616754	0.22200690366392	92	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	65	45.87	55.435	0.0101	0.0701	0.75	0.8201	F	F	33	592	228	454.90070616754	0.57515264721787	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	65	45.87	55.435	0.0098	0.0698	0.79	0.8598	F	F	33	601	228	454.90070616754	0.57515264721787	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	64.98	46.01	55.495	0.0083	0.0683	0.78	0.8483	F	F	32.98	600.98	228	454.90070616754	0.57437216889041	92	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	49.78	44.55	47.165	0.1738	1.1938	0.82	2.0138	F	F	17.78	568.78	228	454.90070616754	0.092327634444928	92	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	321	36	46.17	44.55	45.36	0.1388	1.1588	0.77	1.9288	F	F	14.17	563.17	228	454.90070616754	0.045800045069733	92	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	321	36	43.61	42.97	43.29	0.0858	1.1058	0.96	2.0658	F	F	11.61	559.61	228	454.90070616754	0.026004954568442	92	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH