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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 17, 2019

[ Friday, August 16, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 18, 2019 ]

DAY 321 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/18/2019 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.112
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 594

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 228
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-18 04:00:13OBSERVATION20193213650.8800242.846.8400100.0600000000000020.10.790.89FF18.88002593.88002228454.90070616754 00.1118321704363292 13425240DRYM
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193213647.2947.2947.2900.00290.04290.790.8329FF15.29590.29229455.4430723357400.0576152145696999213415220DRYL
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193213659.1247.8953.50500.01640.05640.790.8464FF27.12602.12229455.4430723357400.346060984830789223515225DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193213653.3544.9549.1500.01750.05750.790.8475FF21.35596.35229455.4430723357400.165862255359769213415220DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193213658.6245.952.2600.02010.06010.790.8501FF26.62601.62229455.4430723357400.327883695445429223515225DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193213659.646.4653.0300.02490.03490.790.8249FF27.6598.6228454.9007061675400.363851890229599223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193213659.3344.9452.13500.02160.04160.790.8316FF27.33610.33228454.9007061675400.353805507764229223515225DRYL
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193213658.3346.6952.5100.01760.03760.790.8276FF26.33609.33228454.9007061675400.317521251883899223515225DRYL
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193213657.9747.1652.56500.01730.03730.790.8273FF25.97608.97228454.9007061675400.304854336196179223515225DRYL
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193213657.6546.552.07500.03040.05040.790.8404FF25.65608.65228454.9007061675400.293787128704149223515225DRYL
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193213657.4646.4751.96500.03180.04180.790.8318FF25.46607.46228454.9007061675400.28730509853419223515225DRYL
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193213657.1146.2851.69500.02510.03510.790.8251FF25.11596.11228454.9007061675400.275544695304279223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193213656.2646.0551.15500.02380.05380.790.8438FF24.26607.26228454.9007061675400.248006297544229213515222.5DRYL
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193213656.9946.1951.5900.0120.0420.790.832FF24.99607.99228454.9007061675400.271567700904629223515225DRYL
2019-08-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193213655.3346.7951.0600.01850.03850.790.8285FF23.33607.33228454.9007061675400.219642553970059213515222.5DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193213656.5547.4151.9800.01060.01060.790.8006FF24.55604.55228454.9007061675400.257234060502149223515225DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193213657.1847.4152.29500.0120.0220.790.812FF25.18610.18228454.9007061675400.277877746438829223515225DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193213655.4347.2351.3300.0340.0440.790.834FF23.43594.43228454.9007061675400.222600249438439213415220DRYL
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193213660.7247.1653.9400.02290.03290.790.8229FF28.72610.72228454.9007061675400.406460202388079223515225DRYL
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193213660.4247.0253.7200.02240.02240.790.8124FF28.42610.42228454.9007061675400.394914791921339223515225DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193213658.6846.6552.66500.02230.02230.790.8123FF26.68607.68228454.9007061675400.330044627570149223515225DRYL
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193213658.6547.953.27500.01130.01130.80.8113FF26.65607.65228454.9007061675400.328963447448699223515225DRYL
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193213664.0348.1156.0700.01190.02190.80.8219FF32.03618.03228454.9007061675400.537017683285489233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193213665.4246.6356.02500.01830.01830.80.8183FF33.42596.42228454.9007061675400.591470110249869233415225DRYL
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193213665.3746.2155.7900.00030.01030.820.8303FF33.37611.37228454.9007061675400.58953526411499233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193213665.947.9156.90500.00030.02030.810.8303FF33.9611.9228454.9007061675400.60992478962079233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193213663.9247.5855.7500.00970.02970.810.8397FF31.92603.92228454.9007061675400.53266479843549233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193213663.9147.5755.7400.00970.02970.820.8497FF31.91605.91228454.9007061675400.532268879964539233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST20193213664.3848.5656.4700.00980.02980.80.8298FF32.38612.38228454.9007061675400.550835816870839233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193213666.1449.2957.71500.00420.01420.80.8142FF34.14604.14228454.9007061675400.61906286118379233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193213666.1349.2857.70500.00420.01420.830.8442FF34.13616.13228454.9007061675400.618683391359129233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193213667.1250.4658.7900.00420.00420.830.8342FF35.12618.12228454.9007061675400.655643568719519233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193213663.8748.5256.19500.02330.04330.830.8733FF31.87604.87228454.9007061675400.530684890755999233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193213664.0749.1456.60500.02330.04330.840.8833FF32.07603.07228454.9007061675400.538599479896799233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193213661.1346.1653.64500.02330.08330.830.9133FF29.13605.13228454.9007061675400.422369414382179223515225DRYL
2019-08-12 00:00:13FORECAST20193213664.1849.4656.8200.00070.15070.590.7407FF32.18610.18228454.9007061675400.542946198639239233525255DRYH
2019-08-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193213664.1749.4756.8200.00070.15070.690.8407FF32.17611.17228454.9007061675400.542551246706989233525255DRYH
2019-08-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193213656.3647.8252.0900.07060.84060.71.5406FF24.36599.36228454.9007061675400.251168229720719223535275DRYVH
2019-08-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193213659.846.1952.99500.02340.06340.70.7634FF27.8599.8228454.9007061675400.37135489805779223515225DRYL
2019-08-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193213659.7946.1952.9900.02340.06340.730.7934FF27.79600.79228454.9007061675400.370978557322429223515225DRYL
2019-08-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193213655.4145.3550.3800.05910.09910.780.8791FF23.41592.41228454.9007061675400.222006903663929213425240DRYM
2019-08-11 00:00:13FORECAST2019321366545.8755.43500.01010.07010.750.8201FF33592228454.9007061675400.575152647217879233415225DRYL
2019-08-10 20:00:11FORECAST2019321366545.8755.43500.00980.06980.790.8598FF33601228454.9007061675400.575152647217879233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193213664.9846.0155.49500.00830.06830.780.8483FF32.98600.98228454.9007061675400.574372168890419233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193213649.7844.5547.16500.17381.19380.822.0138FF17.78568.78228454.9007061675400.0923276344449289213445280DRYVH
2019-08-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193213646.1744.5545.3600.13881.15880.771.9288FF14.17563.17228454.9007061675400.0458000450697339213445280DRYVH
2019-08-10 04:00:13FORECAST20193213643.6142.9743.2900.08581.10580.962.0658FF11.61559.61228454.9007061675400.0260049545684429213445280DRYVH