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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 14, 2019

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DAY 318 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/15/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 66.36°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 50.67°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 58.51°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.566 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 34 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 622 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 225 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.26 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 33 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-15 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	318	33	66.36002	50.66996	58.51499	0	0	0.79	0.79	F	F	34.36002	622.36002	225	453.26118671292	0.56561830596999	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	51.4	51.4	51.4	0	0	0.79	0.79	F	F	19.4	607.4	226	453.80977123269	0.1182981097621	92	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.03	50.98	57.505	0.0041	0.0041	0.79	0.7941	F	F	32.03	620.03	226	453.80977123269	0.48213882267859	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.02	50.18	57.1	0.0086	0.0086	0.79	0.7986	F	F	32.02	620.02	226	453.80977123269	0.48177960487887	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-14 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.89	50.52	57.705	0.0084	0.0084	0.79	0.7984	F	F	32.89	620.89	226	453.80977123269	0.51305487770471	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.25	51.12	57.685	0.0059	0.0059	0.79	0.7959	F	F	32.25	604.25	225	453.26118671292	0.49004476692431	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.28	50.65	57.465	0.0064	0.0264	0.79	0.8164	F	F	32.28	616.28	225	453.26118671292	0.49112322274964	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.08	50.95	57.515	0.0017	0.0217	0.79	0.8117	F	F	32.08	616.08	225	453.26118671292	0.4839351233676	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.2	51.04	57.62	0.002	0.022	0.79	0.812	F	F	32.2	616.2	225	453.26118671292	0.48824750616363	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.06	51.04	57.55	0.0018	0.0318	0.79	0.8218	F	F	32.06	617.06	225	453.26118671292	0.48321656191916	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64	51.01	57.505	0.003	0.013	0.79	0.803	F	F	32	617	225	453.26118671292	0.48106121394759	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.91	51.72	58.315	0.0014	0.0114	0.79	0.8014	F	F	32.91	603.91	225	453.26118671292	0.51377364211279	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.53	50.96	57.745	0.0018	0.0418	0.79	0.8318	F	F	32.53	616.53	225	453.26118671292	0.50011212882506	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.61	51.08	57.845	0.0026	0.0426	0.79	0.8326	F	F	32.61	616.61	225	453.26118671292	0.50298878524566	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	63.7	51.37	57.535	0.0006	0.0406	0.79	0.8306	F	F	31.7	615.7	225	453.26118671292	0.47029403272474	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.63	51.19	57.91	0	0.05	0.79	0.84	F	F	32.63	612.63	225	453.26118671292	0.50370793091202	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	62.79	50.31	56.55	0	0.04	0.79	0.83	F	F	30.79	615.79	225	453.26118671292	0.4377984222082	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	63.8	50.07	56.935	0.0018	0.0318	0.56	0.5918	F	F	31.8	614.8	225	453.26118671292	0.47388107110186	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	63.09	48.72	55.905	0.0015	0.0315	0.66	0.6915	F	F	31.09	616.09	225	453.26118671292	0.44847588816956	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	62.34	48.68	55.51	0.0037	0.0437	0.66	0.7037	F	F	30.34	614.34	225	453.26118671292	0.42186914426483	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.66	48.08	53.37	0.0016	0.0416	0.66	0.7016	F	F	26.66	613.66	225	453.26118671292	0.29846606543161	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.65	48.07	53.36	0.0023	0.0523	0.68	0.7323	F	F	26.65	614.65	225	453.26118671292	0.29815345419921	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	62.23	48.15	55.19	0.0054	0.0954	0.68	0.7754	F	F	30.23	613.23	225	453.26118671292	0.41799364952428	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	59.89	45.57	52.73	0.0047	0.0447	0.71	0.7547	F	F	27.89	603.89	225	453.26118671292	0.33799312889202	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	59.88	44.98	52.43	0.0048	0.0448	0.75	0.7948	F	F	27.88	612.88	225	453.26118671292	0.33766366976608	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	60.07	46.09	53.08	0.0011	0.0411	0.74	0.7811	F	F	28.07	613.07	225	453.26118671292	0.34394439255975	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.64	44.84	51.74	0.0112	0.0412	0.78	0.8212	F	F	26.64	605.64	225	453.26118671292	0.29784099205581	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.62	44.85	51.735	0.0112	0.0312	0.74	0.7712	F	F	26.62	603.62	225	453.26118671292	0.29721651576388	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	57.7	45.12	51.41	0.0133	0.0333	0.93	0.9633	F	F	25.7	604.7	225	453.26118671292	0.26916013077426	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	54.88	42.81	48.845	0.0226	0.0426	0.91	0.9526	F	F	22.88	580.88	225	453.26118671292	0.19225869054327	92	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-08-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	54.63	42.07	48.35	0.0308	0.0708	1.05	1.1208	F	F	22.63	593.63	225	453.26118671292	0.18615693761451	92	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-08-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	55.02	42.38	48.7	0.0392	0.1092	1.1	1.2092	F	F	23.02	592.02	225	453.26118671292	0.19572836940461	92	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-08-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	57.69	44.38	51.035	0.014	0.104	0.95	1.054	F	F	25.69	592.69	225	453.26118671292	0.26886261418373	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	57.69	44.36	51.025	0.014	0.104	0.9	1.004	F	F	25.69	592.69	225	453.26118671292	0.26886261418373	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.35	44.17	51.26	0.0118	0.0418	1	1.0418	F	F	26.35	593.35	225	453.26118671292	0.28884525146794	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-09 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.47	43.87	51.17	0.0052	0.0352	1.13	1.1652	F	F	26.47	586.47	225	453.26118671292	0.29255212135388	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.46	43.84	51.15	0.0052	0.0452	1.41	1.4552	F	F	26.46	594.46	225	453.26118671292	0.29224237362113	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	60.4	44.07	52.235	0.0052	0.0152	1.4	1.4152	F	F	28.4	599.4	225	453.26118671292	0.35495509496976	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	61.09	44.62	52.855	0.0015	0.0115	1.5	1.5115	F	F	29.09	602.09	225	453.26118671292	0.37836301031043	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	61.08	44.6	52.84	0.0015	0.0115	1.8	1.8115	F	F	29.08	604.08	225	453.26118671292	0.37802031616282	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	64.19	46.22	55.205	0.0009	0.0109	1.64	1.6509	F	F	32.19	604.19	225	453.26118671292	0.4878880814801	92	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	318	33	65.61	49.65	57.63	0.0023	0.0023	1.96	1.9623	F	F	33.61	592.61	225	453.26118671292	0.53888558939992	92	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	65.61	49.64	57.625	0.0017	0.0017	1.65	1.6517	F	F	33.61	603.61	225	453.26118671292	0.53888558939992	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	61.5	49.14	55.32	0.0014	0.0014	1.75	1.7514	F	F	29.5	597.5	225	453.26118671292	0.39249292722001	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	318	33	58.87	50.87	54.87	0	0.01	1.32	1.33	F	F	26.87	598.87	225	453.26118671292	0.30506501498184	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	318	33	52.2	50.85	51.525	0	0.01	1.02	1.03	F	F	20.2	592.2	225	453.26118671292	0.13321037563074	92	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2019-08-07 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	318	33	53.8	53.19	53.495	0	0.01	0.86	0.87	F	F	21.8	605.8	225	453.26118671292	0.16677129929346	92	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L