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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 14, 2019

[ Tuesday, August 13, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 15, 2019 ]

DAY 318 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/15/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.566
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 622

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 225
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 33

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-15 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193183366.3600250.6699658.514990000.790.79FF34.36002622.36002225453.26118671292 00.5656183059699992 32515225DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193183351.451.451.40000.790.79FF19.4607.4226453.8097712326900.11829810976219212515220DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:11FORECAST20193183364.0350.9857.50500.00410.00410.790.7941FF32.03620.03226453.8097712326900.482138822678599222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193183364.0250.1857.100.00860.00860.790.7986FF32.02620.02226453.8097712326900.481779604878879222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193183364.8950.5257.70500.00840.00840.790.7984FF32.89620.89226453.8097712326900.513054877704719232515225DRYL
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193183364.2551.1257.68500.00590.00590.790.7959FF32.25604.25225453.2611867129200.490044766924319222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193183364.2850.6557.46500.00640.02640.790.8164FF32.28616.28225453.2611867129200.491123222749649222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193183364.0850.9557.51500.00170.02170.790.8117FF32.08616.08225453.2611867129200.48393512336769222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193183364.251.0457.6200.0020.0220.790.812FF32.2616.2225453.2611867129200.488247506163639222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193183364.0651.0457.5500.00180.03180.790.8218FF32.06617.06225453.2611867129200.483216561919169222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST2019318336451.0157.50500.0030.0130.790.803FF32617225453.2611867129200.481061213947599222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193183364.9151.7258.31500.00140.01140.790.8014FF32.91603.91225453.2611867129200.513773642112799232515225DRYL
2019-08-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193183364.5350.9657.74500.00180.04180.790.8318FF32.53616.53225453.2611867129200.500112128825069232515225DRYL
2019-08-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193183364.6151.0857.84500.00260.04260.790.8326FF32.61616.61225453.2611867129200.502988785245669232515225DRYL
2019-08-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193183363.751.3757.53500.00060.04060.790.8306FF31.7615.7225453.2611867129200.470294032724749222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193183364.6351.1957.91000.050.790.84FF32.63612.63225453.2611867129200.503707930912029232515225DRYL
2019-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193183362.7950.3156.55000.040.790.83FF30.79615.79225453.2611867129200.43779842220829222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-12 00:00:13FORECAST20193183363.850.0756.93500.00180.03180.560.5918FF31.8614.8225453.2611867129200.473881071101869222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193183363.0948.7255.90500.00150.03150.660.6915FF31.09616.09225453.2611867129200.448475888169569222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193183362.3448.6855.5100.00370.04370.660.7037FF30.34614.34225453.2611867129200.421869144264839222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193183358.6648.0853.3700.00160.04160.660.7016FF26.66613.66225453.2611867129200.298466065431619222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193183358.6548.0753.3600.00230.05230.680.7323FF26.65614.65225453.2611867129200.298153454199219222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193183362.2348.1555.1900.00540.09540.680.7754FF30.23613.23225453.2611867129200.417993649524289222525245DRYM
2019-08-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193183359.8945.5752.7300.00470.04470.710.7547FF27.89603.89225453.2611867129200.337993128892029222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193183359.8844.9852.4300.00480.04480.750.7948FF27.88612.88225453.2611867129200.337663669766089222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193183360.0746.0953.0800.00110.04110.740.7811FF28.07613.07225453.2611867129200.343944392559759222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193183358.6444.8451.7400.01120.04120.780.8212FF26.64605.64225453.2611867129200.297840992055819222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193183358.6244.8551.73500.01120.03120.740.7712FF26.62603.62225453.2611867129200.297216515763889222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193183357.745.1251.4100.01330.03330.930.9633FF25.7604.7225453.2611867129200.269160130774269222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-10 00:00:13FORECAST20193183354.8842.8148.84500.02260.04260.910.9526FF22.88580.88225453.2611867129200.192258690543279212415217.5DRYL
2019-08-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193183354.6342.0748.3500.03080.07081.051.1208FF22.63593.63225453.2611867129200.186156937614519212415217.5DRYL
2019-08-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193183355.0242.3848.700.03920.10921.11.2092FF23.02592.02225453.2611867129200.195728369404619212425235DRYL
2019-08-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193183357.6944.3851.03500.0140.1040.951.054FF25.69592.69225453.2611867129200.268862614183739222425240DRYM
2019-08-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193183357.6944.3651.02500.0140.1040.91.004FF25.69592.69225453.2611867129200.268862614183739222425240DRYM
2019-08-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193183358.3544.1751.2600.01180.041811.0418FF26.35593.35225453.2611867129200.288845251467949222415220DRYL
2019-08-09 00:00:12FORECAST20193183358.4743.8751.1700.00520.03521.131.1652FF26.47586.47225453.2611867129200.292552121353889222415220DRYL
2019-08-08 20:00:11FORECAST20193183358.4643.8451.1500.00520.04521.411.4552FF26.46594.46225453.2611867129200.292242373621139222415220DRYL
2019-08-08 16:00:11FORECAST20193183360.444.0752.23500.00520.01521.41.4152FF28.4599.4225453.2611867129200.354955094969769222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-08 12:00:11FORECAST20193183361.0944.6252.85500.00150.01151.51.5115FF29.09602.09225453.2611867129200.378363010310439222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-08 08:00:11FORECAST20193183361.0844.652.8400.00150.01151.81.8115FF29.08604.08225453.2611867129200.378020316162829222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-08 04:00:12FORECAST20193183364.1946.2255.20500.00090.01091.641.6509FF32.19604.19225453.2611867129200.48788808148019222515222.5DRYL
2019-08-08 00:00:13FORECAST20193183365.6149.6557.6300.00230.00231.961.9623FF33.61592.61225453.2611867129200.538885589399929232415222.5DRYL
2019-08-07 20:00:11FORECAST20193183365.6149.6457.62500.00170.00171.651.6517FF33.61603.61225453.2611867129200.538885589399929232515225DRYL
2019-08-07 16:00:11FORECAST20193183361.549.1455.3200.00140.00141.751.7514FF29.5597.5225453.2611867129200.392492927220019222415220DRYL
2019-08-07 12:00:12FORECAST20193183358.8750.8754.87000.011.321.33FF26.87598.87225453.2611867129200.305065014981849222415220DRYL
2019-08-07 08:00:11FORECAST20193183352.250.8551.525000.011.021.03FF20.2592.2225453.2611867129200.133210375630749212415217.5DRYL
2019-08-07 04:00:15FORECAST20193183353.853.1953.495000.010.860.87FF21.8605.8225453.2611867129200.166771299293469212515220DRYL