Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 13, 2019

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DAY 317 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/14/2019 04:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.28°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.76°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.661 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 36 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 614 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.55 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 224 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.71 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 32 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 2 D2: 5 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 1 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-14 04:00:15	OBSERVATION	2019	317	32	68.28008	49.24004	58.76006	0	0	0.24	0.55	0.79	F	F	36.28008	614.28008	224	452.71051360617	0	0.66147715244111	92	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2019-08-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	52.11	52.11	52.11	0	0	0.24	0.55	0.79	F	F	20.11	598.11	225	453.26118671292	0	0.11628149013894	92	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-08-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.44	52.18	58.31	0	0.0162	0.2562	0.55	0.8062	F	F	32.44	610.44	225	453.26118671292	0	0.51363001249748	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.54	48.38	56.46	0	0.0255	0.2655	0.55	0.8155	F	F	32.54	610.54	225	453.26118671292	0	0.5175988765053	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.68	48.61	56.645	0	0.0116	0.2516	0.55	0.8016	F	F	32.68	610.68	225	453.26118671292	0	0.52315226949533	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.38	48.15	56.265	0	0.0056	0.2456	0.55	0.7956	F	F	32.38	597.38	224	452.71051360617	0	0.51124802069405	92	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.23	49.15	56.69	0	0.0067	0.2767	0.55	0.8267	F	F	32.23	610.23	224	452.71051360617	0	0.50529147147553	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.22	48.64	56.43	0	0.0121	0.2821	0.55	0.8321	F	F	32.22	610.22	224	452.71051360617	0	0.50489431154348	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.3	49.84	57.07	0	0.0052	0.2752	0.55	0.8252	F	F	32.3	610.3	224	452.71051360617	0	0.50807142210387	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.68	49.89	57.285	0	0.005	0.285	0.55	0.835	F	F	32.68	605.68	224	452.71051360617	0	0.52315226949533	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.65	49.71	57.18	0	0.0163	0.2763	0.55	0.8263	F	F	32.65	610.65	224	452.71051360617	0	0.52196259830262	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.44	49.39	56.915	0	0.0069	0.0369	0.55	0.5869	F	F	32.44	609.44	224	452.71051360617	0	0.51363001249748	92	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	59.95	49.26	54.605	0	0.0059	0.1359	0.55	0.6859	F	F	27.95	610.95	224	452.71051360617	0	0.33985434688563	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	59.3	49.36	54.33	0	0.0111	0.1511	0.55	0.7011	F	F	27.3	610.3	224	452.71051360617	0	0.31647532811121	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	62.36	48.57	55.465	0	0.0203	0.1503	0.55	0.7003	F	F	30.36	613.36	224	452.71051360617	0	0.43135888057179	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	62.5	48.61	55.555	0	0.0201	0.1801	0.55	0.7301	F	F	30.5	613.5	224	452.71051360617	0	0.43684349282971	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	61.92	48.47	55.195	0	0.05	0.22	0.55	0.77	F	F	29.92	608.92	224	452.71051360617	0	0.41421224161503	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	61.68	47.72	54.7	0	0.0198	0.2298	0.52	0.7498	F	F	29.68	601.68	224	452.71051360617	0	0.40492581151255	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	60.64	47.33	53.985	0	0.0192	0.1592	0.63	0.7892	F	F	28.64	610.64	224	452.71051360617	0	0.36536222455171	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	60.71	46	53.355	0	0.0123	0.1523	0.63	0.7823	F	F	28.71	610.71	224	452.71051360617	0	0.36798584645641	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	57.3	46.58	51.94	0	0.0033	0.1833	0.63	0.8133	F	F	25.3	605.3	224	452.71051360617	0	0.24929141253884	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	57.27	45.46	51.365	0	0.0029	0.1529	0.61	0.7629	F	F	25.27	603.27	224	452.71051360617	0	0.24834448079124	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	61.33	46.11	53.72	0	0.0054	0.1054	0.84	0.9454	F	F	29.33	605.33	224	452.71051360617	0	0.39147986260755	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	57.37	44.13	50.75	0	0.0096	0.1596	0.77	0.9296	F	F	25.37	584.37	224	452.71051360617	0	0.25150835309112	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	57.84	43.82	50.83	0	0.0129	0.1829	0.91	1.0929	F	F	25.84	596.84	224	452.71051360617	0	0.26665876299914	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	55.36	43.49	49.425	0	0.0245	0.1945	0.98	1.1745	F	F	23.36	595.36	224	452.71051360617	0	0.19216957003705	92	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-08-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	57.38	44.45	50.915	0	0.0406	0.2406	0.8	1.0406	F	F	25.38	593.38	224	452.71051360617	0	0.25182590588053	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	57.37	44.45	50.91	0	0.0406	0.2606	0.73	0.9906	F	F	25.37	593.37	224	452.71051360617	0	0.25150835309112	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	58.19	44.27	51.23	0	0.0208	0.1908	0.84	1.0308	F	F	26.19	593.19	224	452.71051360617	0	0.27823286446282	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-09 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	59.2	43.58	51.39	0	0.0025	0.2825	0.88	1.1625	F	F	27.2	586.2	224	452.71051360617	0	0.31293978701155	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	59.2	43.55	51.375	0	0.0025	0.2225	1.23	1.4525	F	F	27.2	594.2	224	452.71051360617	0	0.31293978701155	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	59.54	43.59	51.565	0	0.0019	0.2219	1.19	1.4119	F	F	27.54	596.54	224	452.71051360617	0	0.3250288050524	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	60.01	44.69	52.35	0	0.0018	0.2218	1.29	1.5118	F	F	28.01	599.01	224	452.71051360617	0	0.34204555140459	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	60.01	44.66	52.335	0	0.0018	0.3218	1.49	1.8118	F	F	28.01	601.01	224	452.71051360617	0	0.34204555140459	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	61.27	44.86	53.065	0	0.0008	0.2408	1.41	1.6508	F	F	29.27	598.27	224	452.71051360617	0	0.38918731972972	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	63.03	46	54.515	0	0.0012	0.2312	1.73	1.9612	F	F	31.03	585.03	224	452.71051360617	0	0.45770807482092	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	63.02	45.98	54.5	0	0.0012	0.1512	1.5	1.6512	F	F	31.02	596.02	224	452.71051360617	0	0.45731313735304	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	62.84	47.42	55.13	0	0.0012	0.1512	1.6	1.7512	F	F	30.84	593.84	224	452.71051360617	0	0.45021184484084	92	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.76	48.06	56.41	0	0.001	0.101	1.23	1.331	F	F	32.76	597.76	224	452.71051360617	0	0.52632368866142	92	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.76	48.04	56.4	0	0.001	0.101	0.93	1.031	F	F	32.76	597.76	224	452.71051360617	0	0.52632368866142	92	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-07 04:00:14	FORECAST	2019	317	32	66.55	49.14	57.845	0	0.001	0.221	0.65	0.871	F	F	34.55	609.55	224	452.71051360617	0	0.5964800946291	92	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	317	32	64.49	50.92	57.705	0	0.0017	0.2217	1.04	1.2617	F	F	32.49	588.49	224	452.71051360617	0	0.5156146378746	92	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	62.36	49.96	56.16	0	0.005	0.065	1.14	1.205	F	F	30.36	597.36	224	452.71051360617	0	0.43135888057179	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	58.78	50.52	54.65	0	0	0.03	1.12	1.15	F	F	26.78	597.78	224	452.71051360617	0	0.29828035347113	92	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	54.57	45.8	50.185	0	0	0.12	0.87	0.99	F	F	22.57	589.57	224	452.71051360617	0	0.17140570923879	92	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-08-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	317	32	48.28	45.8	47.04	0	0	0.12	0.89	1.01	F	F	16.28	584.28	224	452.71051360617	0	0.057519450889736	92	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-08-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	317	32	51.55	50.57	51.06	0	0	0.12	0.93	1.05	F	F	19.55	600.55	224	452.71051360617	0	0.10571932253867	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M