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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 12, 2019

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DAY 316 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/13/2019 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 61.37°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 41.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 51.43°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.391 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 617 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.28 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.51 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 223 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.16 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 31 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-13 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2019	316	31	61.37006	41.48006	51.42506	0	0.28	0.51	0.79	F	F	29.37006	617.37006	223	452.15774396071	0.39073918234331	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	316	31	48.34	48.34	48.34	0	0.28	0.51	0.79	F	F	16.34	604.34	224	452.71051360617	0.060216855356828	96	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	61.16	49.83	55.495	0.0324	0.3124	0.51	0.8224	F	F	29.16	617.16	224	452.71051360617	0.38287507379992	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	55.67	44.5	50.085	0.0361	0.3161	0.51	0.8261	F	F	23.67	611.67	224	452.71051360617	0.20186809923759	96	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	61.21	45.68	53.445	0.0186	0.2986	0.51	0.8086	F	F	29.21	617.21	224	452.71051360617	0.38474270813978	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	316	31	61.61	45.31	53.46	0.0232	0.0732	0.51	0.5832	F	F	29.61	615.61	223	452.15774396071	0.39977671634274	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.86	44.9	52.88	0.0174	0.1674	0.51	0.6774	F	F	28.86	621.86	223	452.15774396071	0.37172776438718	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.78	45.4	53.09	0.0292	0.1792	0.51	0.6892	F	F	28.78	621.78	223	452.15774396071	0.36877278216652	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	61.03	45.19	53.11	0.0209	0.1709	0.51	0.6809	F	F	29.03	622.03	223	452.15774396071	0.37803204734703	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.98	45.56	53.27	0.03	0.2	0.51	0.71	F	F	28.98	621.98	223	452.15774396071	0.3761743881766	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.49	45.52	53.005	0.0398	0.2098	0.51	0.7198	F	F	28.49	618.49	223	452.15774396071	0.35812697680906	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.23	45.69	52.96	0.0229	0.2229	0.51	0.7329	F	F	28.23	611.23	223	452.15774396071	0.34867502710305	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.22	45.46	52.84	0.0243	0.2643	0.51	0.7743	F	F	28.22	621.22	223	452.15774396071	0.34831331407596	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.72	45.28	53	0.0329	0.2629	0.51	0.7729	F	F	28.72	620.72	223	452.15774396071	0.36656161271836	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.25	45.23	52.74	0.0262	0.2962	0.51	0.8062	F	F	28.25	619.25	223	452.15774396071	0.34939886547885	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	59.99	45.08	52.535	0.0239	0.2539	0.51	0.7639	F	F	27.99	616.99	223	452.15774396071	0.34003254437334	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	59.94	44.88	52.41	0.0123	0.4323	0.51	0.9423	F	F	27.94	614.94	223	452.15774396071	0.338242369463	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	316	31	59.97	45.22	52.595	0.0143	0.6943	0.23	0.9243	F	F	27.97	597.97	223	452.15774396071	0.33931603902229	96	2	2	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	58.94	44.94	51.94	0.0275	0.7675	0.31	1.0775	F	F	26.94	609.94	223	452.15774396071	0.303249953683	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	58.85	44.92	51.885	0.0548	0.8448	0.31	1.1548	F	F	26.85	610.85	223	452.15774396071	0.30018127845648	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	54.6	44.74	49.67	0.0465	0.6865	0.31	0.9965	F	F	22.6	606.6	223	452.15774396071	0.17369285139342	96	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	54.59	44.74	49.665	0.0545	0.6145	0.34	0.9545	F	F	22.59	606.59	223	452.15774396071	0.1734418912159	96	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	59.28	44.23	51.755	0.0094	0.6094	0.4	1.0094	F	F	27.28	606.28	223	452.15774396071	0.3149669837518	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-09 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	56.82	43.67	50.245	0.0297	0.7797	0.38	1.1597	F	F	24.82	597.82	223	452.15774396071	0.23500751016063	96	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-08-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	56.81	43.61	50.21	0.0353	0.9753	0.47	1.4453	F	F	24.81	605.81	223	452.15774396071	0.23470697961882	96	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	56.94	44.71	50.825	0.0115	0.8815	0.53	1.4115	F	F	24.94	607.94	223	452.15774396071	0.23863038321881	96	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.55	45.48	53.015	0.0079	0.9679	0.54	1.5079	F	F	28.55	609.55	223	452.15774396071	0.36032084779659	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.53	45.49	53.01	0.0079	1.0479	0.76	1.8079	F	F	28.53	611.53	223	452.15774396071	0.35958904236356	96	2	2	5	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-08-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	59.9	44.8	52.35	0.0104	0.9704	0.68	1.6504	F	F	27.9	607.9	223	452.15774396071	0.33681285372069	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.74	44.63	52.685	0.0014	1.3314	0.63	1.9614	F	F	28.74	592.74	223	452.15774396071	0.36729818160542	96	2	2	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.73	44.61	52.67	0.0014	1.0814	0.57	1.6514	F	F	28.73	603.73	223	452.15774396071	0.36692983595274	96	2	2	5	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	61.47	44.39	52.93	0.0017	1.0917	0.66	1.7517	F	F	29.47	602.47	223	452.15774396071	0.39449664279108	96	2	2	5	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	62.34	45.63	53.985	0.0079	0.6279	0.7	1.3279	F	F	30.34	604.34	223	452.15774396071	0.42758502252602	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	62.33	45.61	53.97	0.0079	0.3279	0.7	1.0279	F	F	30.33	604.33	223	452.15774396071	0.42720130925391	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-07 04:00:14	FORECAST	2019	316	31	63.01	44.91	53.96	0.0077	0.4677	0.4	0.8677	F	F	31.01	614.01	223	452.15774396071	0.45343192164797	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	316	31	63.44	44.7	54.07	0.0038	0.8038	0.46	1.2638	F	F	31.44	595.44	223	452.15774396071	0.47013192438009	96	2	2	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	63.69	44.93	54.31	0.0037	0.7137	0.49	1.2037	F	F	31.69	605.69	223	452.15774396071	0.47986734757325	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	64.39	45.64	55.015	0.0032	0.6332	0.52	1.1532	F	F	32.39	610.39	223	452.15774396071	0.5071719262584	96	3	2	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.07	45.02	52.545	0.0147	0.6247	0.37	0.9947	F	F	28.07	606.07	223	452.15774396071	0.34290432168202	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.07	45.02	52.545	0.0147	0.6247	0.39	1.0147	F	F	28.07	607.07	223	452.15774396071	0.34290432168202	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	63.08	45.96	54.52	0.0147	0.6347	0.42	1.0547	F	F	31.08	620.08	223	452.15774396071	0.45614571003571	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.95	45.71	53.33	0.0144	0.5144	0.39	0.9044	F	F	28.95	595.95	223	452.15774396071	0.37506116452336	96	2	2	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	60.96	45.7	53.33	0.0136	0.5136	0.39	0.9036	F	F	28.96	609.96	223	452.15774396071	0.37543212400833	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	59.93	45.3	52.615	0.0174	0.5174	0.48	0.9974	F	F	27.93	607.93	223	452.15774396071	0.33788477099898	96	2	2	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-05 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	58.69	45.76	52.225	0.0012	0.2412	0.67	0.9112	F	F	26.69	608.69	223	452.15774396071	0.29476079464295	96	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	316	31	48.69	45.76	47.225	0.0012	0.2412	0.71	0.9512	F	F	16.69	598.69	223	452.15774396071	0.064428714400936	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-08-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	316	31	48.67	45.7	47.185	0.0005	0.3305	0.45	0.7805	F	F	16.67	605.67	223	452.15774396071	0.064182048597452	96	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M