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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 11, 2019

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DAY 315 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/12/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 48.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 43.86°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 46.01°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.049 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 626 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.24 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.59 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 222 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.60 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 30 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-12 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	315	30	48.16004	43.86002	46.01003	0.24000000000001	0.59000000000001	0.2	0.79000000000001	F	F	16.16004	626.16004	222	451.60286979454	0.049449110587824	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	315	30	45.83	45.83	45.83	0.0077	0.3577	0.2	0.5577	F	F	13.83	623.83	223	452.15774396071	0.030240700970777	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.22	45.37	49.295	0.1097	0.4597	0.2	0.6597	F	F	21.22	631.22	223	452.15774396071	0.12341918684129	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	52.89	44.04	48.465	0.1299	0.4799	0.2	0.6799	F	F	20.89	630.89	223	452.15774396071	0.11699808873607	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	49.66	43.05	46.355	0.1251	0.4751	0.2	0.6751	F	F	17.66	627.66	223	452.15774396071	0.066264563057942	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.93	42.98	47.455	0.1937	0.5137	0.2	0.7137	F	F	19.93	620.93	222	451.60286979454	0.09967077169654	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.06	42.31	47.685	0.1213	0.5513	0.2	0.7513	F	F	21.06	631.06	222	451.60286979454	0.12027583097841	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	52.33	42.53	47.43	0.1146	0.5446	0.2	0.7446	F	F	20.33	630.33	222	451.60286979454	0.10664865358134	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.08	42.96	47.02	0.1514	0.5814	0.2	0.7814	F	F	19.08	629.08	222	451.60286979454	0.085958274149629	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	50.63	42.79	46.71	0.1281	0.5381	0.2	0.7381	F	F	18.63	626.63	222	451.60286979454	0.079294138001991	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.8	43.11	47.455	0.0932	0.7332	0.2	0.9332	F	F	19.8	624.8	222	451.60286979454	0.097476173520346	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	315	30	52.28	43.43	47.855	0.1372	0.7072	0.2	0.9072	F	F	20.28	608.28	222	451.60286979454	0.10575768553441	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.5	43.78	47.64	0.1376	0.8476	0.2	1.0476	F	F	19.5	620.5	222	451.60286979454	0.092546948519177	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.89	43.06	47.475	0.1163	0.8963	0.2	1.0963	F	F	19.89	621.89	222	451.60286979454	0.098991711932876	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.11	41.96	46.535	0.1499	0.7499	0.2	0.9499	F	F	19.11	622.11	222	451.60286979454	0.086416969447155	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	52.04	41.7	46.87	0.1707	0.7007	0.2	0.9007	F	F	20.04	622.04	222	451.60286979454	0.10155566492997	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	52.13	41.88	47.005	0.1591	0.7991	0.2	0.9991	F	F	20.13	617.13	222	451.60286979454	0.10311699050931	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-09 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.52	41.04	46.28	0.245	0.925	0.2	1.125	F	F	19.52	610.52	222	451.60286979454	0.09286973453171	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	49.86	41.2	45.53	0.18	1.16	0.25	1.41	F	F	17.86	618.86	222	451.60286979454	0.068806082464576	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.63	41.24	46.435	0.2087	1.1487	0.25	1.3987	F	F	19.63	620.63	222	451.60286979454	0.094659897560534	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	48.49	41.14	44.815	0.2143	1.2543	0.25	1.5043	F	F	16.49	619.49	222	451.60286979454	0.052821764430907	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	48.48	41.07	44.775	0.3136	1.5036	0.3	1.8036	F	F	16.48	621.48	222	451.60286979454	0.05271694397007	92	1	2	5	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-08-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.46	40.51	45.985	0.23	1.32	0.32	1.64	F	F	19.46	618.46	222	451.60286979454	0.091903859458937	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	315	30	50.15	40.9	45.525	0.2274	1.6274	0.33	1.9574	F	F	18.15	602.15	222	451.60286979454	0.07262346522614	92	1	2	5	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	50.14	41.34	45.74	0.1536	1.3136	0.34	1.6536	F	F	18.14	613.14	222	451.60286979454	0.0724891947153	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	50.71	41.65	46.18	0.147	1.397	0.35	1.747	F	F	18.71	610.71	222	451.60286979454	0.080449483781184	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.74	40.52	47.13	0.0891	1.0091	0.31	1.3191	F	F	21.74	611.74	222	451.60286979454	0.13402946406095	92	1	2	5	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.73	40.51	47.12	0.0891	0.7191	0.3	1.0191	F	F	21.73	611.73	222	451.60286979454	0.1338197009563	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-07 04:00:14	FORECAST	2019	315	30	54.31	42.05	48.18	0.2134	0.5634	0.3	0.8634	F	F	22.31	621.31	222	451.60286979454	0.14635931683448	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	315	30	51.8	42.08	46.94	0.2178	0.9078	0.35	1.2578	F	F	19.8	601.8	222	451.60286979454	0.097476173520346	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.46	42.02	47.74	0.0635	0.8435	0.36	1.2035	F	F	21.46	612.46	222	451.60286979454	0.12824103276587	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	56.64	43.54	50.09	0.03	0.77	0.38	1.15	F	F	24.64	615.64	222	451.60286979454	0.20442102685907	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	56.78	43.19	49.985	0.1077	0.6677	0.31	0.9777	F	F	24.78	615.78	222	451.60286979454	0.20829759161828	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	56.79	43.15	49.97	0.1077	0.6777	0.32	0.9977	F	F	24.79	616.79	222	451.60286979454	0.20857613543801	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	57.05	43.18	50.115	0.1082	0.7582	0.28	1.0382	F	F	25.05	627.05	222	451.60286979454	0.21589488841581	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.28	42.21	47.745	0.1778	0.5778	0.31	0.8878	F	F	21.28	605.28	222	451.60286979454	0.1246126076499	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	53.25	42.18	47.715	0.1778	0.5778	0.31	0.8878	F	F	21.25	619.25	222	451.60286979454	0.12401489573784	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	49.7	41.58	45.64	0.187	0.627	0.35	0.977	F	F	17.7	617.7	222	451.60286979454	0.066766983278829	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-05 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	57.54	42.29	49.915	0.1346	0.5746	0.34	0.9146	F	F	25.54	619.54	222	451.60286979454	0.23008427257611	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	57.54	42.28	49.91	0.1346	0.5746	0.38	0.9546	F	F	25.54	619.54	222	451.60286979454	0.23008427257611	92	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	58.69	41.75	50.22	0.1363	0.4563	0.32	0.7763	F	F	26.69	626.69	222	451.60286979454	0.26534547233878	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	315	30	57.37	41.39	49.38	0.0581	0.2281	0.42	0.6481	F	F	25.37	614.37	222	451.60286979454	0.22510332593383	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	58.2	42.44	50.32	0.0576	0.1876	0.37	0.5576	F	F	26.2	629.2	222	451.60286979454	0.24999390717012	92	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	54.15	41.61	47.88	0.0897	0.2397	0.28	0.5197	F	F	22.15	624.15	222	451.60286979454	0.14282406245321	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-04 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	45.47	43.06	44.265	0.1517	0.4217	0.25	0.6717	F	F	13.47	608.47	222	451.60286979454	0.027914234256716	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	315	30	45.41	43.26	44.335	0.1243	0.3943	0.25	0.6443	F	F	13.41	608.41	222	451.60286979454	0.027541334046067	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-08-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	315	30	43.58	42.99	43.285	0.0983	0.2983	0.33	0.6283	F	F	11.58	611.58	222	451.60286979454	0.018006982368717	92	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M