MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 17, 2025

[ Sunday, February 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 18, 2025 ]

DAY 140 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/18/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.432
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -127

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 154 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 406.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-18 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025140-14432.1999827.4800229.84153.5397191666712.363.696.05TT0.19998-126.8000248406.024100682 62.3408263936130.4318981294010516 21151210WETL
2025-02-18 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025140-14432.1999827.4800229.84153.5397191666712.363.696.05TT0.19998-126.8000248406.024100682 62.3408263936130.4318981294010516 21151210WETL
2025-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.21222.62224.917144.678623121130.6948822652.0548822653.695.744882265TT-4.788-131.78848401.656548238558.1111163667320.21904414355926161115127.5WETL
2025-02-17 07:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.3222.51424.917144.94600164380.8433075422.2033075423.695.893307542TT-4.68-131.6848401.7897800536658.2378221201210.22292633321612161115127.5WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025140-14428.2222.67625.448145.554692944140.9992131382.3592131383.696.049213138TT-3.78-130.7848402.0927470736758.5264863353740.256758235210031621151210WETL
2025-02-16 23:00:01FORECAST2025140-14428.2222.67625.448140.774450250850.94488242.34488243.696.0348824TT-3.78-135.7848399.7007994420356.2676603062750.256758235210031621151210WETL
2025-02-16 19:00:01FORECAST2025140-14427.75222.35225.052140.886081393360.976378482.376378483.696.06637848TT-4.248-136.24848399.7569894916456.3201957590830.23884042427332161115127.5WETL
2025-02-16 15:00:01FORECAST2025140-14428.00423.79225.898140.841381240850.9854336032.3854336033.696.075433603TT-3.996-135.99648399.7344913765856.2991578950850.24840265646654161115127.5WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:01FORECAST2025140-14427.82424.02625.925144.880291815210.90551232.30551233.695.9955123TT-4.176-136.17648401.7570459449258.2066780553190.24155180482725161115127.5WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:03FORECAST2025140-14427.7724.78226.276144.398753792510.9673233572.3073233573.695.997323357TT-4.23-136.2348401.516995433957.978553767170.23951670728788161115127.5WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.82424.78226.303144.92766479430.9421264932.4521264933.696.142126493TT-4.176-135.17648401.7806458902358.2291307684140.24155180482725161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.78824.90826.348145.83489088850.9023626922.6023626923.696.292362692TT-4.212-136.21248402.2320540611958.6594677158710.24019403279013161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.66224.96226.312145.229822560870.9244099482.4744099483.696.164409948TT-4.338-136.33848401.9311059697358.3723832016770.23547470181002161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14428.38225.0726.726145.30462755710.9570871312.5170871313.696.207087131TT-3.618-134.61848401.9683374415858.4078595616940.263119463823071621151210WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.84224.69226.267146.626921369710.9027563932.4427563933.696.132756393TT-4.158-136.15848402.6252948186159.0357074448250.24223224811607161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025140-14427.28424.27825.781146.785382783180.885827252.465827253.696.15582725TT-4.716-136.71648402.7038755082259.1110425147440.22162794211183161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025140-14427.17624.76425.97146.686180881450.8854335492.4054335493.696.095433549TT-4.824-136.82448402.654685191259.063877984720.21775875595215161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.30224.49425.898146.032105839360.6795279262.3695279263.736.099527926TT-4.698-142.69848402.3300446727658.7531036660070.22227659772969161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.51824.60226.06144.848763665390.5783467692.0883467693.735.818346769TT-4.482-142.48248401.7413378938958.1917361072090.23014431904815161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.42824.65626.042145.225977344870.5881892942.1981892943.735.928189294TT-4.572-142.57248401.9291919618658.3705597260960.22684735064745161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14427.87825.05226.465145.370609140840.5212601242.1412601243.735.871260124TT-4.122-141.12248402.0011715088858.4391551775760.24359624102654161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025140-14427.7725.03426.402144.253155404390.4633860771.9533860773.725.673386077TF-4.23-141.2348401.4443556586657.9096150230420.23951670728788161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2025140-14428.1325.0726.6144.665598971530.5137798052.0037798053.745.743779805TT-3.87-139.8748401.6500561347758.1049459476860.253259082213471621151210WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14428.56225.727.131145.95328370880.5842522842.1342522843.645.774252284TT-3.438-146.43848402.2908860419458.7156758239430.270280622394471621151210WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14429.22825.80827.518145.161562012980.5200790211.9600790213.675.630079021TF-2.772-143.77248401.8971255860758.3400145186030.29759423611331621151210WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14429.89425.80827.851145.299051860870.5200790211.9900790213.695.680079021TF-2.106-141.10648401.9655625851358.4052151243420.32610156801861621151210WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14429.87625.95227.914146.363044137880.3921261961.9821261963.715.692126196TF-2.124-142.12448402.4943684333558.9103010122610.325316571251531621151210WETL
2025-02-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025140-14429.44424.60227.023147.064107356140.326771831.906771833.835.73677183TF-2.556-145.55648402.842017732259.2436017433330.306715428278781621151210WETL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025140-14429.55224.8927.221146.944449259550.326771831.886771833.85.68677183TF-2.448-143.44848402.7827244442359.1866856147180.311321759711381621151210WETL
2025-02-12 23:00:01FORECAST2025140-14429.22825.89827.563148.822234831070.4129923491.7529923493.85.552992349TF-2.772-143.77248403.7111351699260.0811933621740.29759423611331621151210WETL
2025-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14429.08425.89827.491149.605019121390.5531499051.8831499053.835.713149905TF-2.916-143.91648404.0968518895360.4549172538270.291583019190051621151210WETL
2025-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025140-14428.70625.53827.122149.91431688450.5468506891.8968506893.825.716850689TF-3.294-145.29448404.249047013960.6027197342990.27607878704551621151210WETL
2025-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14428.424.42226.411149.22580686420.3366143551.6466143553.925.566614355TF-3.6-146.648403.9100909356960.273809220470.263831198720271621151210WETL
2025-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2025140-14428.6725.10626.888149.653042712320.4460632331.6560632333.945.596063233TF-3.33-146.3348404.1204905404760.4778610317770.274623544764261621151210WETL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025140-14429.4825.21427.347149.74333302190.4263781831.7163781833.895.606378183TF-2.52-141.5248404.164926331160.5210031593680.308247534474471621151210WETL
2025-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14428.90425.64627.275154.743991471510.8350398212.2450398213.866.105039821TT-3.096-145.09648406.6101238581462.9204735385350.284149546710771621151210WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025140-14428.86825.66427.266153.612395857330.8322839142.0822839143.85.882283914TT-3.132-145.13248406.0595174726262.3757753396420.282673786818551621151210WETL
2025-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025140-14429.10226.2427.671153.526020241250.8834650442.2034650443.715.913465044TT-2.898-145.89848406.0174241920262.3342392848040.29233132058321621151210WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14429.96626.54628.256156.410160093440.9822839952.7722839953.776.542283995TT-2.034-143.03448407.4179650537363.7243091389960.32924923325011621151210WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025140-14430.00226.38428.193155.806927652740.8877957552.6377957553.836.467795755TT-1.998-142.99848407.1258827902963.4330329654650.330827630920741621151210WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2025140-14430.05626.9628.508158.472291678871.3326778853.1926778853.756.942677885TT-1.944-143.94448408.4130662138364.7221545545010.333200865926641621151210WETL
2025-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14431.06427.06829.066157.109908880111.0657486072.3157486073.886.195748607TT-0.936-145.93648407.7562198790664.0625425504990.378636690368211621151210WETL
2025-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14430.00226.2428.121156.886226794331.0897643682.2497643683.836.079764368TT-1.998-148.99848407.6481585206763.9543814499660.330827630920741621151210WETL
2025-02-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14429.85826.8728.364156.883742770291.1570872392.1970872393.886.077087239TT-2.142-148.14248407.6469581379163.95318052160.324532348237471621151210WETL
2025-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025140-14429.5726.83428.202163.355447266291.6814969713.4814969713.67.081496971TT-2.43-154.4348410.7487981925167.0980536428280.312092386042141621151210WETL
2025-02-10 07:00:03FORECAST2025140-14430.8327.55429.192161.930885961691.6480323863.1980323863.636.828032386TT-1.17-151.1748410.0703863198766.4030609634310.367911055734521621151210WETL
2025-02-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025140-14430.50627.0528.778162.129558936811.3232290613.3032290613.476.773229061TT-1.494-147.49448410.1651467455566.4998943331080.353230109826631621151210WETL
2025-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14430.7428.52629.633166.635784179121.4047251683.6447251683.577.214725168TT-1.26-148.2648412.3016741330268.7042127875210.363812551334791621151210WETL
2025-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14430.97428.5829.777166.4704738181.2562998913.6162998913.557.166299891TT-1.026-148.02648412.2237272009368.6230791861610.374499863919271621151210WETL
2025-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14432.23428.70630.47166.383367588661.5688984853.5588984853.677.228898485TT0.234-144.76648412.1826418136268.5803360065430.433517697103221621151210WETL
2025-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14433.18829.44431.316162.323188464391.5515756413.3415756413.366.701575641TT1.188-142.81248410.2574556118766.5942982862050.479289721829661621151210WETL
2025-02-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025140-14433.31429.31831.316160.62918836581.3133865363.0033865363.426.423386536TT1.314-135.68648409.4483352534565.7693537694910.485368864249311621151210WETL
2025-02-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025140-14433.54829.10231.325161.481114646351.3133865363.0033865363.436.433386536TT1.548-135.45248409.8556835570466.1839526249310.496666655173291621151210WETL
2025-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2025140-14431.38827.46429.426160.014512550291.5956701533.0456701533.446.485670153TT-0.612-144.61248409.1538802814365.4705587112930.393641538694791621151210WETL
2025-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025140-14431.4627.51829.489157.322599461571.2763786422.6863786423.446.126378642TT-0.54-144.5448407.8589142865964.165424609140.396998380343811621151210WETL
2025-02-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14432.52227.2329.876154.666471544010.9996068392.6196068393.065.679606839TT0.522-146.47848406.5724550553462.8831270503960.447270402934741621151210WETL
2025-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14436.06827.01431.541156.827248239370.8342524192.7542524193.075.824252419TT4.068-147.93248407.6196556079163.9258689172680.616656101547351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-08 07:00:05FORECAST2025140-14435.38427.531.442161.889207078891.4137802913.5337802913.166.693780291TT3.384-146.61648410.0505008050366.382750437630.584689967292931631151212.5WETL
2025-02-08 03:00:05FORECAST2025140-14435.38428.38231.883164.5387890451.2405518513.5505518513.627.170551851TT3.384-143.61648411.3104718053467.6765269523780.584689967292931631151212.5WETL
2025-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025140-14430.81229.55230.182172.271436570060.3767718573.9967718573.717.706771857TT-1.188-144.18848414.9395072129271.4822249972440.367090134078251621151210WETL
2025-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025140-14430.59627.73429.165174.430165461240.3358269533.6158269533.947.555826953TT-1.404-150.40448415.9399656023272.5524770219560.357287394020881621151210WETL
2025-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025140-14428.59825.8827.239173.596261424480.3358269533.5958269533.947.535826953TT-3.402-148.40248415.5541446334172.1386459278050.271724444977521621151210WETL
2025-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025140-14425.05223.32424.188168.590065738250.4712600973.1212600973.546.661260097TT-6.948-153.94848413.2206782546769.664901311360.14985565210504161115127.5WETL
2025-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025140-14427.66226.34827.005163.116785888180.3889765882.4889765883.646.128976588TT-4.338-155.33848410.6353127586766.981512389380.23547470181002161115127.5WETL
2025-02-07 03:00:05FORECAST2025140-14426.99626.49226.744161.0260205640.1039370642.0339370643.495.523937064TF-5.004-164.00448409.6381901233865.9624076266060.21139731368698161115127.5WETL