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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 16, 2025

[ Saturday, February 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, February 17, 2025 ]

DAY 139 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.408
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -119

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 399.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-17 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025139-14531.9200827.0399229.48141.720517083331.111.443.615.05TF-0.079920000000001-119.0799247399.42372360113 56.6065366441020.4081397155476216 2114128WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025139-14531.9200827.0399229.48141.720517083331.111.443.615.05TF-0.079920000000001-119.0799247399.42372360113 56.6065366441020.4081397155476216 2114128WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:01FORECAST2025139-14526.92423.73825.331141.368914885991.1480321161.4780321163.615.088032116TF-5.076-124.07647399.2463913028256.4410291106290.19960989265045161114126WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:02FORECAST2025139-14527.28423.82825.556140.685987388851.0870084611.4170084613.615.027008461TF-4.716-123.71647398.9015005894756.1198514813240.21214499624834161114126WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:02FORECAST2025139-14527.84223.6325.736141.241674448941.2594494991.5894494993.615.199449499TF-4.158-123.15847399.1821779259456.3811592204360.23245566513803161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 23:00:01FORECAST2025139-14528.45423.61226.033142.132984312991.3039377121.7839377123.615.393937712TF-3.546-123.54647399.6315517129156.8008250705880.255921259045911621151210WETL
2025-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.25624.29626.276141.416621743551.1484258171.6284258173.615.238425817TF-3.744-123.74447399.2704617785356.4634798667080.24819692022341161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.6724.96226.816141.407516786741.1641738571.6441738573.615.254173857TF-3.33-123.3347399.2658681014656.459194945930.264488492931841621151210WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:01FORECAST2025139-14528.16624.36826.267142.905682958631.1389769931.6189769933.615.228976993TF-3.834-123.83447400.0203025704157.1651745361410.24472734320908161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025139-14527.84224.99826.42143.07577357381.1980321431.6580321433.615.268032143TF-4.158-124.15847400.1057741037957.2454431412450.23245566513803161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:02FORECAST2025139-14527.80625.23226.519142.935024222931.1381895911.5981895913.615.208189591TF-4.194-124.19447400.0350493637757.1790194708310.23111355805959161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:01FORECAST2025139-14527.62624.826.213142.964566007991.2767723431.8067723433.615.416772343TF-4.374-130.37447400.0498958277157.192959738550.2244681751052161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14527.6824.72826.204142.248110290421.1228352521.6328352523.615.242835252TF-4.32-130.3247399.6895208930356.8550790499190.22645034304365161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14527.82425.17826.501142.590746413281.1842526081.7342526083.615.344252608TF-4.176-130.17647399.8619475890257.0166135689870.23178407134376161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.34625.28626.816143.06620170951.1925203291.7425203293.615.352520329TF-3.654-128.65447400.1009651662357.2409253866390.251692518080091621151210WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025139-14528.425.19626.798142.196414512231.0700793181.6000793183.615.210079318TF-3.6-128.647399.6634927060256.8307156742280.253802271575381621151210WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:03FORECAST2025139-14528.6725.80827.239142.357422960871.0874021621.6174021623.615.227402162TF-3.33-128.3347399.7445472221656.9066035852080.264488492931841621151210WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.81425.8827.347143.238713883861.0566934841.6666934843.525.186693484TF-3.186-135.18647400.1876179436757.3223597064950.270279874072731621151210WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.82225.66427.743142.807485664791.0637801021.5937801023.525.113780102TF-2.178-133.17847399.9709410377557.1188444285830.312505520581981621151210WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.91225.80827.86142.94453103271.0822840491.6422840493.525.162284049TF-2.088-131.08847400.0398272097757.1835054949030.316410280842421621151210WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.6625.89827.779144.592052965091.0889769661.7789769663.525.298976966TF-2.34-132.3447400.8660837782357.9620500175690.305529907876541621151210WETL
2025-02-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025139-14529.17425.28627.23145.548535463531.169291971.859291973.555.40929197TF-2.826-134.82647401.3441898827858.4150590542340.285029840938381621151210WETL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025139-14529.53426.09627.815145.411406651851.1566935381.8166935383.545.356693538TF-2.466-133.46647401.2757161582658.3500663417990.300152603079751621151210WETL
2025-02-12 23:00:01FORECAST2025139-14529.2125.64627.428146.754771247950.9417327921.5517327923.595.141732792TF-2.79-132.7947401.9454836144258.9874175019810.286525664489571621151210WETL
2025-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.2125.50227.356146.833016186940.9417327921.5717327923.595.161732792TF-2.79-132.7947401.9844241656459.0245854604120.286525664489571621151210WETL
2025-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.56224.78226.672147.12244742150.9661422541.5661422543.65.166142254TF-3.438-134.43847402.1283996179459.1621143294820.260186726813011621151210WETL
2025-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.41824.18826.303147.470172915570.9850399021.5750399023.655.225039902TF-3.582-134.58247402.3012332136459.3274324261620.254507577282641621151210WETL
2025-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2025139-14528.38224.15226.267147.349889422950.9259847521.5259847523.625.145984752TF-3.618-134.61847402.2414647347159.2702353499870.253097991873851621151210WETL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025139-14528.79624.49426.645147.517861747150.9417327921.6217327923.565.181732792TF-3.204-131.20447402.3249245854359.3501126024250.269552502849451621151210WETL
2025-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.69625.73627.716150.133154416451.0440950521.7040950523.575.274095052TF-2.304-134.30447403.6197936127860.5967128000030.307074080775241621151210WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025139-14529.7525.73627.743149.020007235250.933071371.523071373.535.05307137TF-2.25-134.2547403.0697096684460.0654510511010.309396757390121621151210WETL
2025-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.87626.81628.346148.728853254610.9204729381.5204729383.515.030472938TF-2.124-135.12447402.9255733173259.926658466440.314845889351821621151210WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14530.66827.53629.102151.142804034131.1551187341.9951187343.565.555118734TF-1.332-133.33247404.117388833861.079435307290.349985006749931621151210WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025139-14530.54227.51829.03151.035865723191.1342525811.9642525813.625.584252581TF-1.458-133.45847404.0647458103761.0282686916910.344298144191471621151210WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2025139-14531.26227.1429.201151.359887217551.251969182.061969183.555.61196918TF-0.738-133.73847404.2242094242861.1833307490620.377230551383631621151210WETL
2025-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.82225.19627.509151.141101290091.0228351981.5428351983.595.132835198TF-2.178-137.17847404.1165507280461.0786205265870.312505520581981621151210WETL
2025-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.35424.69227.023150.523487711030.9311028651.4711028653.524.991102865TF-2.646-138.64647403.8123166027860.7832382757220.29254585859286162114128WETL
2025-02-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14529.49824.8927.194150.078288364520.8665359011.3665359013.554.916535901TF-2.502-137.50247403.5927168808860.5705041458670.29862412014913162114128WETL
2025-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025139-14528.41824.92626.672153.452049624151.5133866442.0333866443.375.403386644TF-3.582-143.58247405.2506906691262.1865490947790.254507577282641621151210WETL
2025-02-10 07:00:03FORECAST2025139-14529.5724.36826.969152.640719946681.2933077851.7833077853.45.183307785TF-2.43-142.4347404.8532739770161.7970952126210.301684610618851621151210WETL
2025-02-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025139-14529.7524.06226.906154.354354525991.6244103262.1044103263.355.454410326TF-2.25-138.2547405.6917092778562.6202819221290.309396757390121621151210WETL
2025-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025139-14532.39625.50228.949157.756226583751.6637804262.4437804263.375.813780426TT0.396-138.60447407.3453792645264.2612699490970.430867142900371621151210WETL
2025-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14532.55825.48429.021158.58372572431.6637804262.5637804263.355.913780426TT0.558-139.44247407.7454754601964.6617966457040.438659946286511621151210WETL
2025-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14533.27826.36629.822156.963963299091.1708667742.2508667743.415.660866774TT1.278-136.72247406.9615308240863.8782947884110.473541335892661621151210WETL
2025-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14535.11426.27630.695153.253692852451.2287408211.8687408213.285.148740821TF3.114-135.88647405.153604444462.0912860535860.562779985154841631151212.5WETL
2025-02-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025139-14534.91625.89830.407153.014049991551.1775596911.8075596913.35.107559691TF2.916-129.08447405.0362453741661.9762362980690.553228387768921631151212.5WETL
2025-02-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025139-14534.64625.32229.984153.587335330241.1775596911.8075596913.315.117559691TF2.646-129.35447405.3168785490562.2515393407190.5401546367811631151212.5WETL
2025-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2025139-14532.7227.12229.921148.250085673821.0291344141.5891344143.34.889134414TF0.72-136.2847402.6883266084759.6985789195530.446476600834521621151210WETL
2025-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025139-14532.73826.7829.759147.874667689620.9818902941.5518902943.34.851890294TF0.738-136.26247402.5020914580159.5198630187290.44734646027071621151210WETL
2025-02-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14530.95623.91827.437147.125450854141.4629929161.6429929163.044.682992916TF-1.044-139.04447402.1298930987559.163541824080.36310871236531621151210WETL
2025-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14531.29823.1827.239150.55356565221.6118118941.9618118943.034.991811894TF-0.702-143.70247403.8271439415160.7976164275370.378903209090911621151210WETL
2025-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025139-14531.6424.92628.283151.578587172351.8098434972.1898434973.095.279843497TF-0.36-142.3647404.3317660398661.2880378452230.394902498447611621151210WETL
2025-02-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025139-14534.44828.79631.622155.238679063271.586615032.536615033.395.92661503TT2.448-138.55247406.1229600119163.0459918495150.530538733482651631151212.5WETL
2025-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025139-14535.61830.77633.197168.974266303482.3318910233.8218910233.517.331891023TT3.618-135.38247412.6983825690769.7354063992420.586916116554351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025139-14530.75826.72628.742171.350095810992.0153554193.5553554193.667.215355419TT-1.242-141.24247413.8126361140770.9068348459440.354067830825181621151210WETL
2025-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025139-14532.50428.4930.497170.411017507371.9854341433.5354341433.667.195434143TT0.504-137.49647413.3730159971470.4433162661630.436059547695561621151210WETL
2025-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025139-14531.56825.71828.643163.392024892231.3035440112.8335440113.366.193544011TT-0.432-139.43247410.0537237574366.9995082393270.391518462861781621151210WETL
2025-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025139-14532.07227.42829.75159.252054877550.7657484452.3657484453.375.735748445TT0.072000000000003-142.92847408.0679995947664.9856674652350.415364942789251621151210WETL
2025-02-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025139-14532.12625.37628.751159.933314033690.8625988912.2325988913.195.422598891TF0.126-150.87447408.3962005162665.3161577873330.417940195507641621151210WETL
2025-02-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025139-14528.424.76426.582161.901774257130.7704728571.9404728573.225.160472857TF-3.6-162.647409.3413337231266.2730882065540.253802271575381621151210WETL
2025-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025139-14529.73224.83627.284167.556588980610.9570871312.4870871313.285.767087131TT-2.268-155.26847412.0302878413869.0383895874020.30862167993891621151210WETL
2025-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025139-14537.09431.2834.187163.850236853191.4602370092.8402370093.145.980237009TT5.094-140.90647410.2722230445767.2232009201380.65542709895191631151212.5WETL
2025-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2025139-14520.89418.8619.877146.312214168050.0023622060.2723622063.33.572362206FF-11.106-174.10647401.7250882762358.7772871525520.056923373269114161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025139-14517.99613.80215.899147.806993529070.0405512030.3105512033.413.720551203TF-14.004-182.00447402.4685011619859.4876591469040.026385648039908161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2025139-14514.34213.71214.027149.6972539730300.653.424.07TF-17.658-171.65847403.4045699449360.3885563609250.0085148595041379161113124.5WETL