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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 8, 2024

[ Sunday, April 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ]

DAY 191 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/09/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.179
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 69

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.78 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 98
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-09 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024191-9531.7800423.7900227.78503139.968552083330.779999999999971.373.414.78TF-0.2199668.7800498433.66151149199 60.6989738578040.1789320676747216 1114126WETL
2024-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024191-9431.87422.69427.284143.511148971770.4807089211.0707089213.414.480708921TF-0.12668.87499435.7500744476662.5349938485170.1813534727811161114126WETL
2024-04-08 12:00:01FORECAST2024191-9432.9362327.968142.444839899520.4791341171.0691341173.414.479134117TF0.93669.93699435.3103082604562.0077071667710.21012678435775161114126WETL
2024-04-08 08:00:01FORECAST2024191-9433.33222.26227.797142.336112067640.4503939441.0403939443.414.450393944TF1.33270.33299435.2653998769361.9539847360470.22150574139293161114126WETL
2024-04-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024191-9432.39621.226.798141.829354790860.3862206810.9762206813.414.386220681TF0.39669.39699435.0559277750761.7037015342790.19517545845602161113124.5WETL
2024-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024191-9532.5420.15626.348139.447790234430.3850395780.9750395783.414.385039578TF0.5469.5498433.4441237375860.4428252453040.19909802043705161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 20:00:01FORECAST2024191-9532.59420.9326.762139.176293535710.3657482290.9357482293.414.345748229TF0.59468.59498433.3306755872460.3093573035590.20058111537767161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2024191-9531.51420.60626.06139.227586850370.3645671260.9345671263.414.344567126TF-0.48667.51498433.3521151081860.3345692430140.17218680669895161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2024191-9531.6419.79625.718139.350500052710.3594490130.9294490133.414.339449013TF-0.3667.6498433.4034788628760.3949915041260.1753610223422161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 08:00:01FORECAST2024191-9531.98220.1226.051139.107389151160.330708840.860708843.414.27070884TF-0.01800000000000167.98298433.3018706146760.275491935520.18416185295574161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9531.3719.65225.511139.432091699680.4047246280.9847246283.414.394724628TF-0.6366.3798433.4375660474760.4351064552150.16860421916714161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024191-9531.49619.77825.637137.70925635010.3492127870.7392127873.414.149212787TF-0.50468.49698432.7163011652259.5890400440290.17173635177221161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 20:00:01FORECAST2024191-9531.22620.33625.781135.56007478670.3409450660.6809450663.414.090945066TF-0.77467.22698431.812110667658.5364820159020.16506978861659161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024191-9531.53220.78626.159135.659298098640.3480316840.7080316843.414.118031684TF-0.46867.53298431.8539640610458.5850056456380.17263801305656161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2024191-9532.14421.63226.888136.377525495180.338582860.668582863.414.07858286TF0.14469.14498432.1566053059958.9364484580290.1884247468069161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024191-9531.47820.96626.222136.628490528650.2814962150.7214962153.414.131496215TF-0.52265.47898432.2622249620859.0593353091250.17128664842437161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024191-9531.56820.24625.907136.276285005450.2685040820.6985040823.414.108504082TF-0.43264.56898432.1139787716858.886887725930.17354267944777161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024191-9531.40619.65225.529131.026433396770.0637795620.6637795623.283.943779562TF-0.59464.40698429.8884795456256.3267542332230.16949535361114161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024191-9531.65819.27425.466130.4197890947200.593.273.86TF-0.34265.65898429.6293949800656.0321750821920.17581748415828161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024191-953219.7625.88130.4119781231200.593.273.86TF06598429.6260564803756.0283838788390.18463252835223161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024191-9533.0820.71426.897130.1616449883100.493.273.76TF1.0869.0898429.5190261153355.9069029929470.21422438559632161112123DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2024191-9533.83620.85827.347129.4422872455500.353.263.61TF1.83669.83698429.2110844307755.558064479860.23648408532831161112123DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024191-9534.0719.74226.906129.8539819325700.353.273.62TF2.0769.0798429.3873909913855.7576625118660.24362305275462161112123DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024191-9534.35819.05826.708130.3147490803500.433.073.5FF2.35865.35898429.5844941177255.9811955597610.25256659323527162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024191-9534.46618.28426.375128.6386719652100.393.113.5FF2.46669.46698428.8664078614555.1688051577850.25596440741379162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024191-9535.22219.65227.437128.8476710775800.43.173.57TF3.22272.22298428.9561168396155.2699966492670.28039885796282162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:02FORECAST2024191-9534.44819.11226.78129.6242803298900.473.153.62TF2.44870.44898429.28904495955.6462835063170.25539645584583162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024191-9534.1618.08626.123129.8531502537200.553.123.67TF2.1671.1698429.3870350141455.7572591746890.24639943380415161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9534.91617.56426.24129.4070818435600.563.113.67TF2.91671.91698429.1959993031655.5410018087530.27037413270205162113126DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024191-9533.92618.69826.312127.771875891200.543.123.66TF1.92669.92698428.4938430397754.7494621330220.23921615588218161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024191-9533.29619.47226.384127.3470348419800.523.143.66TF1.29667.29698428.3109388206454.5441280491940.22045698285765161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024191-9533.74617.31225.529127.3857687880200.533.143.67TF1.74666.74698428.3276228879154.5628435347210.23376924824366161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024191-9534.7921.7428.265126.565489565200.323.083.4FF2.7971.7998427.9739489622254.1667323715580.26629894415259162112124DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2024191-9534.28621.36227.824126.4442790309600.313.033.34FF2.28664.28698427.9216249663554.1082413506290.25031463648859162112124DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9534.32221.07427.698126.402912304700.3233.32FF2.32268.32298427.9037641478154.0882819744270.25143928439025162112124DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024191-9535.70818.84227.275129.9752430152100.383.153.53FF3.70872.70898429.4392854135255.81647548190.29668053647822162112124DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024191-9534.03419.65226.843131.09457951300.163.183.34FF2.03465.03498429.9175583337256.3598615350140.24251724160878161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024191-9534.4320.76827.599130.7786803773600.123.153.27FF2.4365.4398429.7827178534156.2064166898650.25482916263316162112124DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024191-9532.79221.00226.897131.148852419300.323.183.5FF0.79265.79298429.9407136517756.3862312037640.20607550147973161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024191-9533.65619.92226.789129.6623536741400.153.13.25FF1.65670.65698429.3053499112555.6647421143920.23107174561797161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9532.6320.04826.339130.5031235444600.153.133.28FF0.6366.6398429.6650089659556.0726257478160.20157351284029161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024191-9535.67222.56829.12130.57047441752003.163.16FF3.67262.67298429.6937866691156.1053215796480.29545977618594162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024191-9536.44620.91228.679131.96250941633003.093.09FF4.44662.44698430.2874747760156.7818149418580.32219736946232162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024191-9535.92421.36228.643132.624201691800.13.123.22FF3.92467.92498430.5689442766557.1038625079730.30405306318322162112124DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:06FORECAST2024191-9535.81622.1929.003131.5978953085200.063.163.22FF3.81666.81698430.1321735893456.6044887488370.30035658777475162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:04FORECAST2024191-9538.35422.80230.578131.27463949484003.143.14FF6.35464.35498429.9943679329656.4473556352130.39190138931889162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9533.87221.59627.734131.1187449441900.023.043.06FF1.87258.87298429.9278688123556.3716025752050.23757485130091161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024191-9529.98421.81225.898135.728980479440.0263779670.1463779673.13.246377967FF-2.01660.98498431.8833504874558.6190868477060.13658575554792161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2024191-9531.1923.14427.167136.32599872450.1618111110.2018111113.063.261811111FF-0.8166.1998432.1349117228158.9112234243350.16419371147069161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2024191-9533.7122.87428.292135.606842008760.106299270.106299273.013.11629927FF1.7163.7198431.8318388676158.5593519476730.23268816151484161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2024191-9533.11624.65628.886134.436333837420.027559070.047559072.942.98755907FF1.11668.11698431.3373684645557.9874144634540.21525598904138161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2024191-9532.19823.1827.689134.969019207610.074803190.094803192.983.07480319FF0.19866.19898431.5625787847558.2475779852840.18985909872543161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9533.22423.8128.517135.345353572970.2110237360.2310237362.983.211023736FF1.22468.22498431.7215029748258.4314994651810.21836801006995161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:04FORECAST2024191-9534.23223.46828.85142.0367954717500.082.892.97FF2.23275.23298434.5220494910261.7181194715230.24863267067061161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024191-9536.03221.7428.886141.79575958579002.882.88FF4.03272.03298434.4219937949661.5991965909280.30776965982854162111122DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024191-9536.08621.25428.67141.960022665970.0122047310.0122047312.882.892204731FF4.08668.08698434.49018720661.6802368239050.30963540727116162111122DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024191-9534.50223.21628.859143.411362197280.0413386050.1013386053.063.161338605FF2.50272.50298435.091472562862.3970607606510.25710228159351162112124DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024191-9541.10820.35430.731147.738761701810.031496080.771496083.053.82149608TF9.10873.10898436.8711989829564.5428099609260.49833508329579162113126DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9541.10820.3930.749147.395669890140.0311023790.7611023793.023.781102379TF9.10875.10898436.7308087558764.3722301182320.49833508329579162113126DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:05FORECAST2024191-9524.06221.3822.721153.0260907378901.073.324.39TF-7.93862.06298439.0193293276567.1814117253810.046664081631988161114126WETL
2024-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024191-9535.2430.232.72146.002272576750.0452756150.2352756153.323.555275615FF3.2483.2498436.1593834458663.6802611887720.2809940996417162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:04FORECAST2024191-9535.2428.45431.847148.145345953280.0429134090.4729134093.393.862913409TF3.2478.2498437.0374114496764.7450585137350.2809940996417162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 12:00:05FORECAST2024191-9535.94232.86434.403146.2520652344700.173.313.48FF3.94276.94298436.261971008863.8042142432970.30467110691978162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:05FORECAST2024191-9537.5834.0735.825147.4254666232500.393.263.65TF5.5880.5898436.7430061753564.3870414798430.363055244337162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:05FORECAST2024191-9537.61636.08636.851148.2278483946800.393.383.77TF5.61679.61698437.0711176708364.7861113678050.36438126395196162112124DRYL