MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 9, 2024

[ Monday, April 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 10, 2024 ]

DAY 192 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/10/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.275
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 64

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 99
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -94

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024192-9434.9727.9199431.44497144.412440833330.419999999999961.263.624.88TF2.9763.9799436.12085667029 62.981277410080.2751996752219316 2114128WETL
2024-04-10 00:00:01FORECAST2024192-9334.46622.58628.526143.385859066950.4440947281.2840947283.624.904094728TF2.46663.466100436.3136604569862.5612090272680.25887627965383162114128WETL
2024-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024192-9333.76422.20827.986141.542358696640.4759845091.3159845093.624.935984509TF1.76462.764100435.5552596692561.6495187963130.23700329110177161114126WETL
2024-04-09 08:00:01FORECAST2024192-9333.18823.91828.553141.500238240670.4559057581.2959057583.624.915905758TF1.18862.188100435.5378901325261.6287152165880.21984183561075161114126WETL
2024-04-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024192-9333.94424.31429.129141.286535766590.413386051.253386053.624.87338605TF1.94462.944100435.4497353604661.5231846095560.24251321775961161114126WETL
2024-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024192-9433.54823.55828.553145.163296936610.4885829411.0285829413.624.648582941TF1.54862.54899436.4291036935963.353487571250.23048306597965161114126WETL
2024-04-08 20:00:01FORECAST2024192-9433.67423.5428.607142.954390113230.5665357391.1065357393.624.726535739TF1.67463.67499435.5206050768962.2595824805140.2342743028319161114126WETL
2024-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024192-9434.5224.7129.615142.657606783270.4984254661.0384254663.624.658425466TF2.5264.5299435.3981525247562.1128584370390.26060098318143162114128WETL
2024-04-08 12:00:01FORECAST2024192-9435.04224.2629.651143.93777156710.4669293861.0069293863.624.626929386TF3.04265.04299435.9256884090262.7461721584490.27757224553222162114128WETL
2024-04-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024192-9434.75425.44830.101143.917225791730.4952758581.0052758583.624.625275858TF2.75464.75499435.9172353533962.735999186860.26814236220384162114128WETL
2024-04-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024192-9434.21425.03429.624143.380401783660.4598427680.9098427683.624.529842768TF2.21463.21499435.6962158620862.4702984859230.25090633892718162113126WETL
2024-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024192-9434.46624.54829.507140.874906244640.4043309270.8543309273.624.474330927TF2.46664.46699434.6606660808361.2327805823690.25887627965383162113126WETL
2024-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024192-9434.05225.08829.57140.630269189960.4169293590.8269293593.624.446929359TF2.05263.05299434.5592012098361.1121774451130.24585213128964161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2024192-9433.5324.2628.895140.78041745230.4314962960.8314962963.624.451496296TF1.5361.5399434.6214836887961.1861939074450.2299442694329161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2024192-9433.56624.22428.895141.008455984480.4519687480.8519687483.624.471968748TF1.56661.56699434.7160301393661.2986362016560.23102256626741161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 08:00:01FORECAST2024192-9433.72825.12429.426140.8439062660.4751971070.8051971073.624.425197107TF1.72861.72899434.6478121184761.2174957087350.23590960770484161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024192-9433.22424.15228.688141.380755903270.5279530410.9779530413.624.597953041TF1.22459.22499434.8702707816361.4822876029650.22089312425814161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024192-9433.54824.94429.246139.063342311860.346456880.746456883.434.17645688TF1.54861.54899433.9078103604560.3406703639460.23048306597965161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024192-9433.69225.10629.399136.987746666160.370078940.790078943.354.14007894TF1.69260.69299433.0409583949959.3213051046820.23481870733134161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024192-9434.21425.41229.813136.983278976830.3488190860.7988190863.354.148819086TF2.21462.21499433.0390875753759.3191141412090.25090633892718162113126WETL
2024-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024192-9435.36626.67231.019138.057234475040.4594490670.8694490673.354.219449067TF3.36664.36699433.4881900950959.8461807021190.28837066328432162113126WETL
2024-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024192-9434.28625.91630.101138.466053070460.4783467150.8483467153.444.288346715TF2.28659.28699433.6588265825560.0470260960530.25317015379964162113126WETL
2024-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024192-9434.57426.56430.569137.833771066330.4043309270.7743309273.424.194330927TF2.57459.57499433.3948439464759.7364457018460.26233157460621162113126WETL
2024-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024192-9435.31225.23230.272131.690805794730.1720473370.4320473373.363.792047337TF3.31259.31299430.8079187326356.7334419606510.28655725863454162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024192-9435.43826.90631.172130.659309869770.0811024060.2611024063.363.621102406TF3.43861.43899430.3695635438356.231790161590.29079690897073162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024192-9436.33828.99432.666130.720643704870.1086614760.3186614763.333.648661476TF4.33861.33899430.3956607327456.2615978187660.32189708616956162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024192-9435.38427.48231.433130.0603913883100.123.323.44FF3.38464.38499430.1145134256655.9408619579330.28897633023654162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024192-9434.77228.02231.397129.3639608455500.033.263.29FF2.77264.77299429.8174493786355.602887692150.26872697917898162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024192-9434.8827.66231.271129.7866763325700.053.253.3FF2.8863.8899429.9978223153355.8079881885490.27224805631365162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2024192-9435.0627.73431.397130.639548159350.0901575290.1701575293.13.270157529FF3.0660.0699430.3611541853356.2221867281090.27816694411643162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024192-9435.3327.531.415129.103128303070.1244095160.1544095163.153.304409516FF3.3364.3399429.7060553290855.4763959937560.28716112618167162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024192-9435.9628.47232.216129.454034521530.1641733170.2041733173.213.414173317FF3.9667.9699429.8559001054855.6465805315390.30866561343319162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024192-9437.92228.20233.062129.3793627298900.163.143.3FF5.92267.92299429.8240247715455.6103584109380.37966187142275162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024192-9436.06828.8532.459129.6969894537200.183.173.35FF4.06867.06899429.959569057855.7644616936150.31242177002963162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024192-9437.00427.17632.09129.2280922435600.183.173.35FF5.00469.00499429.7594330297355.5369916541060.34575907697484162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024192-9434.41224.99829.705127.717952691200.173.173.34FF2.41264.41299429.1132485894154.8054655825110.25715749248538162112124DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024192-9435.5125.73630.623127.2420420419800.23.143.34FF3.5162.5199428.9090935940554.5752689192830.29323264626721162112124DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024192-9435.65424.9830.317127.2705423880200.23.153.35FF3.65462.65499428.9213265515254.5890498720010.29813225215186162112124DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024192-9435.9626.85231.406126.426843965200.043.043.08FF3.9667.9699428.558817981154.1813388108090.30866561343319162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024192-9436.1425.23230.686126.28073823096003.023.02FF4.1460.1499428.4959623556454.1107864552580.3149367694833162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:06FORECAST2024192-9437.425.3431.37126.20699790470033FF5.465.499428.4642299351154.075184169660.36025102495144162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2024192-9442.29627.55434.925130.204147214640.1192914030.1792914033.153.329291403FF10.29675.29699430.1757674006656.0106689468050.54953311354805163112125DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024192-9439.6527.03233.341131.468633166750.1232284130.1232284133.023.143228413FF7.6564.6599430.7135989734556.6253281433710.44584898129499162112124DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024192-9441.19826.63633.917131.423422064780.1834646660.1834646662.953.133464666FF9.19866.19899430.6943988202156.6033317570870.50651284562949163112125DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024192-9438.31825.82632.072131.533848161790.1425197620.2325197623.093.322519762FF6.31864.31899430.7412904530956.6570594954680.3945953497154162112124DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024192-9437.97626.02432129.406907274140.0122047310.0122047312.932.942204731FF5.97668.97699429.8357834835955.6237193763670.38168827023647162111122DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024192-9435.52824.18829.858130.877728546570.0771653960.0771653962.963.037165396FF3.52862.52899430.4624808786356.3379517219170.29384305365652162111122DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2024192-9434.1625.729.93130.50671121752002.842.84FF2.1657.1699430.3046160640156.1576402642330.24921552505878162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024192-9433.29625.95229.624132.635992522960.1133858880.1133858882.772.883385888FF1.29655.29699431.2085879547257.1937790477980.22300429706099161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:04FORECAST2024192-9433.94425.44829.696133.336293536030.1240158150.1240158152.93.024015815FF1.94461.94499431.5048291833157.5352545661990.24251321775961161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:06FORECAST2024192-9434.1625.3429.75131.55371370852002.92.9FF2.1661.1699430.7497248161556.6667259784880.24921552505878162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:04FORECAST2024192-9434.8827.4131.145131.651294872750.0838583130.0838583132.822.903858313FF2.8858.8899430.791148907256.7142125733510.27224805631365162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024192-9434.57426.45630.515131.919985894280.1401575560.1501575562.732.880157556FF2.57453.57499430.9051576443956.8450023182230.26233157460621162112124DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024192-9431.51424.42227.968139.61471219130.5023624760.5323624762.93.432362476FF-0.48652.51499434.1373173117860.6119566079850.17420117424967161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2024192-9432.926.27629.588138.550259659140.2960631520.4960631522.743.236063152FF0.958.999433.6939515059760.0884095937510.21153536124422161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2024192-9433.49423.21628.355137.345595584280.2476379290.3576379292.693.047637929FF1.49457.49499433.1907366746259.4968397301690.22886879063127161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2024192-9431.1922.29826.744139.013225375140.59055150.62055152.643.2605515FF-0.8159.1999433.8869333147660.3160220482140.16611601187472161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2024192-9431.13621.68626.411139.158400202960.515748310.585748312.683.26574831FF-0.86457.13699433.9474010100760.3874260967930.16479237871076161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2024192-9430.84822.29826.573139.854394525460.515748310.725748312.683.40574831TF-1.15258.84899434.236984566360.7299505570820.15784845044527161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:04FORECAST2024192-9427.4122.74825.079142.463052784170.0417323060.1217323062.572.691732306FF-4.5962.4199435.3178296038262.0167069367380.08972699559731161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024192-9432.1827.53629.858141.949892771550.0153543390.0153543392.562.575354339FF0.1864.1899435.1057775384361.7632184658620.19158909581866161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024192-9432.21627.53629.876142.113860651730.0153543390.0253543392.562.585354339FF0.21660.21699435.1735637015661.8441951912020.1925582525222161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024192-9429.62427.03228.328143.4113621972800.12.742.84FF-2.37662.62499435.7089709770262.4856170493890.1305023573209161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024192-9432.25228.74230.497147.7364001018100.582.923.5TF0.25265.25299437.4809850053364.6318658376830.1935303934667161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024192-9432.41430.48831.451147.3934066901400.572.893.46TF0.41467.41499437.3411665392864.4612044220630.19794187422208161113124.5DRYL