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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 6, 2024

[ Friday, April 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 7, 2024 ]

DAY 189 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/07/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.104
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 83

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 96
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -97

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-07 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024189-9728.5299621.5400225.03499137.860616666670.529999999999970.999999999999973.184.18TF-3.4700482.5299696431.52010035638 59.4896271391920.1041231450660716 1114126WETL
2024-04-07 00:00:01FORECAST2024189-9629.06618.48223.774136.18847822150.3374017570.8074017573.183.987401757TF-2.93483.06697431.445673357458.7579296897960.11431988274412161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:01FORECAST2024189-9628.61620.35424.485134.904038804580.2602363610.7302363613.183.910236361TF-3.38482.61697430.9017332785458.130384147170.10571397926552161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024189-9627.78820.35424.071135.256780605660.3492127870.8192127873.183.999212787TF-4.21281.78897431.051290733758.3026098605550.091117780940068161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 04:00:03FORECAST2024189-9627.48219.6723.576134.84941147270.3251970260.7951970263.183.975197026TF-4.51881.48297430.8785600897558.1037202443070.086118866345514161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024189-9727.66219.05823.36129.878803226160.4031498240.7431498243.183.923149824TF-4.33880.66296428.1125209398755.6027418658050.089034032173703161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:01FORECAST2024189-9727.75219.25623.504129.605822249750.413386050.743386053.183.92338605TF-4.24881.75296427.9947542869555.4706120479420.090518779777999161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:01FORECAST2024189-9727.80619.88623.846129.485581288030.3838584750.7138584753.183.893858475TF-4.19481.80696427.9428552538955.4124293706090.091418377944445161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:01FORECAST2024189-9728.68820.06624.377129.613452673930.3657482290.6957482293.183.875748229TF-3.31282.68896427.9980472357455.4743046399230.10705862235175161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2024189-9728.68820.51624.602129.356967320270.3165356040.6365356043.183.816535604TF-3.31282.68896427.8873246726855.3502066744420.10705862235175161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:03FORECAST2024189-9728.420.22824.314129.650442419930.3035434710.6335434713.183.813543471TF-3.682.496428.0140094462755.4922056866360.10175316755496161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024189-9727.96818.523.234129.981023583930.3484253850.4784253853.183.658425385TF-4.03278.96896428.1565987890655.6522329648180.094156781430849161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024189-9728.68819.79624.242128.576501673030.3618112190.5318112193.183.711811219TF-3.31282.68896427.5499601965854.972878172520.10705862235175161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.26420.06624.665128.767782946180.3614175180.5914175183.183.771417518TF-2.73684.26496427.6327054160255.0653153916980.11825993644843161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.13820.40824.773128.9825126720.3059056770.5159056773.183.695905677TF-2.86284.13896427.725546177155.1691156799260.11574170695555161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024189-9728.99420.91224.953129.118527039920.3665356310.5465356313.183.726535631TF-3.00683.99496427.7843272965355.234882231290.11291050050844161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9728.99421.09225.043128.6529103330.3814962690.5514962693.183.731496269TF-3.00684.99496427.5830181829655.0097996982080.11291050050844161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024189-9728.86821.27225.07126.964899051460.3657482290.6257482293.13.725748229TF-3.13284.86896426.8512081220854.1951205492120.11047391723512161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.26421.72225.493126.425869154950.3157482020.5957482023.13.695748202TF-2.73682.26496426.6168586826153.9354071551010.11825993644843161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024189-9729.28220.94825.115126.473092630490.3251970260.6051970263.13.705197026TF-2.71882.28296426.6374024569953.9581517205730.11862281219498161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024189-9730.43421.59626.015126.433982784620.2814962150.5014962153.13.601496215TF-1.56683.43496426.620388555353.9393148621670.14349446192016161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2024189-9727.73420.324.017126.489051030960.3102363880.4902363883.093.580236388TF-4.26677.73496426.6443443321853.9658382423050.090220374070287161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9728.45419.61624.035126.45004590470.3236222220.4636222223.13.563622222TF-3.54681.45496426.6273766765553.9470513649520.10273312545353161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024189-9729.6621.225.43129.747401473490.3248033250.4548033253.263.714803325TF-2.3482.6696428.0558431362855.5391333324780.12642491456554161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.31821.3825.349131.1379739130.1610237090.3110237093.273.581023709TF-2.68278.31896428.6546836781656.2129067258710.1193509150109161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.35422.56825.961130.827781977360.1177165990.2777165993.233.507716599FF-2.64677.35496428.5212848614756.0624892285160.12008215605103161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024189-9730.221.43425.817130.658597586440.2251969720.4151969723.233.645196972TF-1.880.296428.4484823836655.9804778462890.13817781780865161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024189-9730.54222.51426.528129.694825674140.1480315760.2480315763.243.488031576FF-1.45882.54296428.0331602032755.5136860953130.14599414664568161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.3822.126.24130.510306744460.1468504730.2568504733.263.516850473FF-1.6281.3896428.3846449670855.9086114192710.14225548719602161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024189-9729.35420.67825.016130.6527368175200.093.313.4FF-2.64674.35496428.4459598497755.9776372327830.12008215605103161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.320.19224.746132.07694861633003.333.33FF-2.774.396429.0578520691456.6686518811690.1189864715584161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024189-9730.7422.58626.663132.68324169180.098425250.118425253.343.45842525FF-1.2677.7496429.3176662387656.9632596721180.15065226712365161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:05FORECAST2024189-9729.19223.07226.132131.726996108520.0559055420.1359055423.323.455905542FF-2.80877.19296428.9077050456756.4987235934660.1168162600408161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:04FORECAST2024189-9727.521.8324.665131.5189666948400.13.283.38FF-4.572.596428.818386815356.3977511336990.086407140017545161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9727.53621.81224.674131.059703887370.0122047310.0122047313.283.292204731FF-4.46471.53696428.621033371856.1749457136070.086985843625644161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024189-9727.53620.87624.206135.517547629790.1161417950.1961417953.263.456141795FF-4.46478.53696430.52695542758.3439571879860.086985843625644161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2024189-9727.80622.40625.106134.9885307063700.073.233.3FF-4.19481.80696430.3019046004458.0858218621670.091418377944445161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2024189-9727.03221.39824.215134.9920383467700.043.213.25FF-4.96878.03296430.3033977933758.0875327756690.079143088397922161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2024189-9729.2122.17225.691134.258021590680.023622060.023622063.183.20362206FF-2.7982.2196429.9906387953557.7296924671760.11717600612531161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2024189-9729.19221.27225.232134.518621549950.0173228440.0673228443.173.237322844FF-2.80882.19296430.1017452379257.8566938956310.1168162600408161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9728.81421.99225.403134.025707854490.0173228440.0873228443.153.237322844FF-3.18681.81496429.891530123757.6165166254780.10944125288906161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.97421.23626.105141.56059279369003.133.13FF-1.02686.97496433.0764040858161.3065524873460.15628323783841161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024189-9729.53419.3124.422141.86395078579003.123.12FF-2.46683.53496433.2033565791961.4559396579880.12378556151349161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024189-9729.10219.43624.269141.93388487863003.123.12FF-2.89880.10296433.2326094732861.4903873186510.11502923751723161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024189-9732.88222.5527.716142.69631345878003.33.3FF0.88283.88296433.5511905934961.8661565933550.20726904936066161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.39822.87426.636143.653551277760.1909449850.1909449853.293.480944985FF-1.60282.39896433.9503002779362.3385017129760.14266767423782161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9730.41623.46826.942143.219020560540.1901575830.1901575833.263.450157583FF-1.58484.41696433.7692477830162.1240068167650.14308066574995161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.39824.33227.365147.116671037810.3862206810.5262206813.423.946220681TF-1.60288.39896435.3861307144764.0525581667440.14266767423782161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024189-9730.41623.34226.879145.764520697220.1944882940.3844882943.373.754488294TF-1.58490.41696434.8270234611863.3823526610180.14308066574995161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.21824.4427.329147.516675432470.3870080830.6970080833.324.017008083TF-1.78288.21896435.5511627683264.2510595123280.13858197155938161113124.5WETL
2024-03-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.23621.225.718146.705295634470.1700788320.1700788323.553.720078832TF-1.76475.23696435.2162322773963.8485260211750.13898692763187161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:05FORECAST2024189-9730.4721.30825.889147.200406475750.2996064610.3696064613.433.799606461TF-1.5378.4796435.4206917908364.0941028195640.14432446896085161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9731.42421.93826.681148.012603696070.307086780.397086783.533.92708678TF-0.57677.42496435.7555379973164.4973117539620.16749575500473161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024189-9733.49424.92629.21145.026089289790.1740158420.3440158423.74.044015842TF1.49486.49496434.5208741944863.0168630992070.22550016567874161112123WETL
2024-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024189-9734.62822.89228.76138.825737635490.0417323060.2617323063.744.001732306TF2.62877.62896431.9274657371959.9626490359940.26156253879115162112124WETL
2024-03-28 16:00:04FORECAST2024189-9732.12622.9127.518138.964954803440.015748040.275748043.73.97574804TF0.12672.12696431.986145176260.0309351401230.18599297919074161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 12:00:05FORECAST2024189-9738.322.78430.542141.2937442797700.263.723.98TF6.385.396432.9646495704261.1751964785840.3953034034806162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 08:00:04FORECAST2024189-9737.43623.03630.236144.8801129800200.73.864.56TF5.43681.43696434.4602852786362.94465521650.36193671091518162113126WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:05FORECAST2024189-9737.2221.1129.165144.6512374205400.73.834.53TF5.2281.2296434.3652429705662.8314698881660.35374544861564162113126WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:05FORECAST2024189-9729.19223.19826.195146.808033607340.0476378210.6976378214.134.827637821TF-2.80860.19296435.2586797920263.8994708907920.1168162600408161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:04FORECAST2024189-9727.0520.22823.639134.9169825300400.124.144.26TF-4.9565.0596430.2714438339458.0509248709210.079413673133822161112123WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2024189-9727.30220.22823.765135.0094283500400.154.174.32TF-4.69868.30296430.3108004737558.0960151848090.083275464593705161112123WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:04FORECAST2024189-9730.52426.88828.706139.55970868739004.424.42TF-1.47670.52496432.2365978425860.322813678940.14557551886407161111121.5WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:04FORECAST2024189-9735.11430.77632.945136.6741738258004.014.01TF3.11484.11496431.0179474896858.9090218772450.27787611017567162111122WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:07FORECAST2024189-9728.61627.7728.193138.92636689221004.144.14TF-3.38462.61696431.9698826157360.0120063986560.10571397926552161111121.5WETL