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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 5, 2024

[ Thursday, April 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 6, 2024 ]

DAY 188 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/06/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.107
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 108

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 95
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -98

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-06 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024188-9828.0299221.3299624.67994133.661150.200000000000050.660000000000052.993.65TF-3.97008108.0299295429.09564678577 57.353417609380.1068758735167316 1113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:01FORECAST2024188-9727.21215.92621.569128.297332770820.0744094890.5344094892.993.524409489TF-4.788107.21296427.4291240184954.838016560140.09177085988868161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:01FORECAST2024188-9727.96817.25822.613128.234546874560.0618110570.5218110572.993.511811057TF-4.032107.96896427.4019358071154.8076935715360.10567333369189161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2024188-9728.18417.9623.072128.179590915820.0468504190.5068504192.993.496850419TF-3.816108.18496427.3781346391254.7811544644080.10991087671126161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:03FORECAST2024188-9728.23816.12422.181128.502607481660.0610236550.5210236552.993.511023655TF-3.762108.23896427.5179839846154.9371756873260.11098899858924161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024188-9828.16615.51221.839128.558257526180.0440945120.3240945122.993.314094512FF-3.834105.16695426.8934742771154.8806812023610.10955317300264161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024188-9828.77816.28622.532127.118227133310.0303149770.3603149772.993.350314977FF-3.222107.77895426.2668422971554.1862852785270.12218700110268161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024188-9830.3818.62624.503127.334813044240.0885827250.4185827252.993.408582725FF-1.62109.3895426.3612365727754.2906283483050.15996362891472161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:02FORECAST2024188-9830.12819.8524.989127.766571449350.0677165720.3977165722.993.387716572FF-1.872109.12895426.5492542469954.4987357694130.1535639377292161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024188-9829.76820.1224.944127.661679309450.0496063260.3696063262.993.359606326FF-2.232108.76895426.5035958651354.4481652796620.14471884010394161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024188-9830.05620.40825.232127.10394333920.0464567180.3564567182.993.346456718FF-1.944110.05695426.2606151895754.1794050807860.15176695088625161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024188-9830.05620.46225.259125.373443430220.1204725060.3704725062.993.360472506FF-1.944110.05695425.5045189808153.3469667397450.15176695088625161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:01FORECAST2024188-9829.8420.37225.106125.071691092250.141732360.391732362.993.38173236FF-2.16106.8495425.3723356530553.2020373639880.14645990854879161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024188-9830.34419.9425.142125.072080365290.1275591240.3875591242.993.377559124FF-1.656107.34495425.372506240353.2022242856710.1590388864925161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024188-9830.2920.33625.313125.247007970020.0948819410.3348819412.993.324881941FF-1.71107.2995425.4491459588453.2862325747460.15765833613553161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2024188-9829.2118.73423.972125.071332091180.0468504190.2768504192.993.266850419FF-2.79104.2195425.3721783314353.2018649784380.13169760688379161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024188-9830.23618.69824.467124.976972152650.0263779670.2463779672.993.236377967FF-1.764107.23695425.3308229005153.1565584093020.15628566165697161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024188-9831.94620.46226.204128.222253269290.0586614490.3186614493.073.388661449FF-0.053999999999998106.94695426.7474663223554.7185217088130.20355986219875161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2024188-9830.97420.67825.826130.395414180270.0740157880.3740157883.053.424015788FF-1.026102.97495427.6895964017655.7687620633990.17572678964315161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024188-9830.66819.86825.268130.292833403290.0775590970.3375590973.053.387559097FF-1.332101.66895427.645241422355.7191101963440.1674875471329161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024188-9831.80220.326.051129.554624227040.0417323060.3717323063.053.421732306FF-0.198103.80295427.3257055351255.3620212031580.19927844034543161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024188-9833.04420.0326.537129.0386288072700.33.043.34FF1.044106.04495427.1019994605155.1126563712280.23796383354943161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2024188-9832.52220.28226.402129.8234691968700.313.063.37FF0.522104.52295427.4421451985155.492022170620.22122491811328161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024188-9831.31620.49825.907130.6527368175200.313.093.4FF-0.68499.31695427.8008094878455.8933465723380.18523307008338161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024188-9831.6419.4925.565132.0769486163300.223.113.33FF-0.3698.6495428.415031321156.5837500782620.19452708856241161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024188-9831.69420.98426.339132.2051526481200.273.093.36FF-0.306100.69495428.47021312356.6459699311010.19610317359095161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:04FORECAST2024188-9831.67620.42626.051131.45652800100.293.113.4FF-0.324101.67695428.1477347641956.2828146835940.1955769552825161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024188-9830.7419.59825.169131.5189666948400.283.13.38FF-1.2698.7495428.1746543681756.3130881074250.16940349858564161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024188-9829.9318.89624.413130.9913428314700.183.13.28FF-2.0797.9395427.9470419810756.0573576898550.14865588587255161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2024188-9832.84620.0326.438134.8577054176300.263.083.34FF0.846104.84695429.6079067072157.9359365278050.23153431287622161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2024188-9833.69220.85827.275134.9885307063700.243.063.3FF1.692107.69295429.6638202454857.9996877926230.25967287468037162112124DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2024188-9832.64819.2225.934134.9920383467700.213.043.25FF0.648104.64895429.6653191233358.0013972353750.22520264469615161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2024188-9831.2819.74225.511134.1212844870500.1833.18FF-0.72107.2895429.2928202103157.5773044676740.18421766198514161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2024188-9830.52419.14824.836134.4173145275100.2233.22FF-1.476106.52495429.4195510460957.7214228572230.16369759875072161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2024188-9830.63219.1324.881133.9238950442300.2233.22FF-1.368106.63295429.2082645710157.4812425765230.1665348143485161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2024188-9832.50418.5925.547141.5605927936900.152.983.13FF0.504109.50495432.4488828861761.2177202143350.22065996466312161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024188-9833.2619.426.33141.8639507857900.142.983.12FF1.26108.2695432.5763187167961.3669855895350.24508788047188161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024188-9831.40619.00425.205141.9338848786300.142.983.12FF-0.594105.40695432.6056829833561.4014052064020.18778672378631161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024188-9830.97418.30224.638142.7074326587800.322.983.3FF-1.026104.97495432.9301362862861.7823482700280.17572678964315161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024188-9831.24418.66224.953142.5105035125200.312.983.29FF-0.756106.24495432.8475977140861.685329094420.18320571732186161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:04FORECAST2024188-9832.66617.5125.088142.0538123603700.282.983.26FF0.666107.66695432.6560265764461.4604380158730.22577417420946161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2024188-9835.18617.8726.528144.527616571390.137795350.5577953533.55779535TF3.186112.18695433.6910756675362.680337494510.31333935875142162113126DRYL
2024-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024188-9835.40220.04827.725144.420422093540.1893701810.55937018133.559370181TF3.402114.40295433.6463597639762.627390316440.32147713775626162113126DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:04FORECAST2024188-9835.02420.28227.653144.885577148980.3051182750.62511827533.625118275TF3.024112.02495433.8403098302862.8572036802530.30729478624078162113126DRYL
2024-03-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024188-9830.07417.43823.756145.4793291857100.543.013.55TF-1.92699.07495434.0875467196763.1507651046470.15221488571771161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:04FORECAST2024188-9832.19817.47424.836145.0878516294700.493.013.5TF0.198102.19895433.9245783058562.957184835620.21118276089499161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2024188-9833.3517.97825.664145.8377585456600.573.053.62TF1.35100.3595434.2366154421763.3280946745420.24808969019823161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024188-9837.34623.14430.245143.7424897120600.493.383.87TF5.346107.34695433.3632798412462.2927167941650.39817801381358162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024188-9832.14420.89426.519138.549803747250.1381890510.4881890513.473.958189051TF0.14497.14495431.17876094459.7397327087730.20953537682682161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 16:00:04FORECAST2024188-9832.30621.226.753138.851289362620.1755906460.4655906463.493.955590646TF0.30694.30695431.3063827736659.887447358450.21450015997348161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 12:00:05FORECAST2024188-9834.2523.0928.67141.399721079770.224409570.504409573.483.98440957TF2.25101.2595432.3812634038461.1385900454220.27915284831122162113126DRYL
2024-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2024188-9829.19218.19423.693145.052903380020.0696850771.0396850773.524.559685077TF-2.80898.19295433.9100217987762.93990846760.13129143710559161114126WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:05FORECAST2024188-9829.6617.90623.783144.821567820540.0503937281.0503937283.484.530393728TF-2.3497.6695433.8136342313262.8255706513080.14213340003362161114126WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:05FORECAST2024188-9832.59417.49225.043146.3473118798100.883.94.78TF0.59484.59495434.4483022902663.5803411909260.22349297347507161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:04FORECAST2024188-9834.5217.22225.871134.9169825300400.513.754.26TF2.5291.5295429.6332435078657.9648208086760.288826830771162113126WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2024188-9834.80817.56426.186135.0094283500400.493.834.32TF2.80894.80895429.6727499874158.009872353390.2993162438049162112124WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:04FORECAST2024188-9841.34220.17430.758139.5597086873900.513.914.42TF9.34294.34295431.6058793081360.2347907840090.56527461034665163113127.5WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:04FORECAST2024188-9848.0221.21834.619136.708810625800.23.814.01TF16.02103.0295430.3973263841158.8391065864970.80795351370582164112126WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:06FORECAST2024188-9840.94620.76830.857138.9263668922100.393.754.14TF8.94687.94695431.3381486352959.9242418919110.54874630367188163112125WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2024188-9829.7522.38826.069136.1496444598200.363.553.91TF-2.2582.7595430.1592563182158.5660298088250.14428575400475161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 20:00:04FORECAST2024188-9830.97426.38428.679136.1890706879300.553.273.82TF-1.02683.97495430.1760534745958.5852769549070.17572678964315161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-26 16:00:05FORECAST2024188-9830.97426.38428.679135.7875220414300.553.233.78TF-1.02685.97495430.0048989240658.3892996905750.17572678964315161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024188-9833.1728.9431.055133.466170929800.343.063.4FF1.1798.1795429.0120262588657.2585924276050.2421056864944161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 08:00:05FORECAST2024188-9821.54218.01419.778132.3984450408100.13.23.3FF-10.45877.54295428.553376408156.7398006534210.026717947825751161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 04:00:06FORECAST2024188-9824.85424.49424.674133.1648205089500.113.293.4FF-7.14677.85495428.8827048385357.1120884092160.057073399092537161112123DRYL