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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 4, 2024

[ Wednesday, April 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, April 5, 2024 ]

DAY 187 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/05/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.091
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 140

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 128 in
SWE DAY: 94
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -99

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024187-9928.3200822.0299825.17503128.275662083330.269999999999980.469999999999982.983.45FF-3.67992140.3200894426.11915449961 54.6607166698280.09096274605364416 1112123DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024187-9824.5317.00620.768128.372752969420.0929134360.2929134362.983.272913436FF-7.47136.5395426.8128801673954.7911444298970.038199457381464161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:02FORECAST2024187-9827.35619.32823.342127.513417301670.1437008650.3437008652.983.323700865FF-4.644139.35695426.4390383096654.3766990457010.074095868225076161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:01FORECAST2024187-9827.17618.53622.856127.476827689860.1311024330.3311024332.983.311102433FF-4.824139.17695426.4231023964854.3590643471720.071229175012546161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9828.02218.55423.288126.931505956650.1165354960.3165354962.983.296535496FF-3.978140.02295426.1854222263554.0963574599610.085469363488074161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.63419.11223.873124.900396989930.1397638550.2597638552.983.239763855FF-3.366139.63494424.6401165698653.0377191374250.097025745045556161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:01FORECAST2024187-9928.02219.63423.828124.510492212120.1370079480.2570079482.983.237007948FF-3.978137.02294424.4684422392252.8507746717150.085469363488074161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:01FORECAST2024187-9928.11219.63423.873124.562171851230.1503937820.2703937822.983.250393782FF-3.888137.11294424.491206461152.8755466085410.087101241299682161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.02218.71623.369124.873706572980.129921330.249921332.983.22992133FF-3.978137.02294424.6283702502353.0249185091910.085469363488074161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2024187-9926.9618.06822.514124.885905783210.1346457420.2446457422.983.224645742FF-5.04134.9694424.6337391607353.0307691411970.067902066490368161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9926.90618.5922.748124.876313036090.1129921870.2329921872.983.212992187FF-5.094136.90694424.6295173767653.0261685363040.067089277045341161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.77819.8524.314128.001985098960.070866180.350866182.983.33086618FF-3.222134.77894425.9997013281354.5288074215660.099903801469908161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.00418.80623.405130.112743165620.07874020.36874022.983.3487402FF-3.996132.00494426.9188486553855.547582507660.085145744320715161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024187-9927.33819.14823.243129.990996950230.0834646120.3334646122.983.313464612FF-4.662131.33894426.8659670568555.4887326218440.073805306049062161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024187-9927.0518.69822.874129.40226334470.1511811840.4011811842.983.381181184FF-4.95132.0594426.6100142842655.20430141390.069273528046406161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024187-9927.82418.82423.324129.049944807270.0968504460.3568504462.983.336850446FF-4.176132.82494426.4566601384255.0342084535560.081959732565085161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.56217.56423.063129.827798796870.114173290.394173292.983.37417329FF-3.438131.56294426.7950547670855.4098624977980.095609675102337161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.63418.42823.531130.652736817520.0889764260.4189764262.983.398976426FF-3.366127.63494427.1532028906555.8087349980340.097025745045556161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.86817.623.234132.0769486163300.352.983.33FF-3.132126.86894427.7697632071856.4985250347350.10173386198333161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.65218.46423.558132.205152648120.0244094620.3844094622.983.364409462FF-3.348128.65294427.8251550988456.560689936550.097382148033101161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.6717.45623.063131.4565280010.0799213030.4199213032.983.399921303FF-3.33129.6794427.5014489910256.1978561997570.09773950728941161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024187-9927.19417.70822.451131.518966694840.0960630440.3960630442.983.376063044FF-4.806128.19494427.5284710841156.2281027496090.07151196781012161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9926.85217.20422.028130.9913428314700.32.983.28FF-5.148127.85294427.2999921244855.9725997602620.066284006499762161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2024187-9927.84218.0522.946134.867447017630.0791339010.3591339012.983.339133901FF-4.158131.84294428.9713601084557.8542721815060.082274246456558161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.34619.36423.855135.015295506370.074803190.324803192.983.30480319FF-3.654134.34694429.0347868422757.9262585280220.091452493125249161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2024187-9927.62618.3222.973134.998434346770.0429134090.2729134092.983.252913409FF-4.374131.62694429.0275546385957.9180481678340.078559450912128161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.99418.6823.837134.1212844870500.22.983.18FF-3.006135.99494428.6508940398357.4912085051440.10433663727262161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.07618.39223.234134.417314527510.0523622330.2423622332.983.222362233FF-3.924136.07694428.7781073689557.6352017207210.08644572901463161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.11218.53623.324133.923895044230.0653543660.2353543662.983.215354366FF-3.888136.11294428.5660164778457.3952302103010.087101241299682161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2024187-9927.19415.85421.524141.5646271936900.152.983.13FF-4.806137.19494431.8206744555561.1305327938270.07151196781012161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.0417.07822.559141.8751683857900.142.983.12FF-3.96135.0494431.9516219629361.2832091005050.085793899862291161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024187-9927.03216.48421.758141.9338848786300.142.983.12FF-4.968134.03294431.9763696406161.312084318860.068997547913647161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024187-9926.63614.5420.588142.7074326587800.322.983.3FF-5.364133.63694432.3020582116161.6927168604830.063137340430985161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024187-9927.515.11621.308142.5105035125200.312.983.29FF-4.5135.594432.2192053961561.5957765887890.076451799353946161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9929.2113.38821.299142.0607003603700.282.983.26FF-2.79135.2194432.0298069139661.3744569467520.10890983184845161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.20215.74621.974143.8627234583800.4233.42FF-3.798137.20294432.7872829299462.2619572004520.088756197552106161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2024187-9929.67813.69421.686143.5817220354600.3733.37FF-2.322138.67894432.6693927158262.1234164781750.11930702420083161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024187-9929.64215.78222.712143.2769760625700.3233.32FF-2.358136.64294432.5414456632961.9732303563690.11848327588804161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.09415.42221.758145.4793291857100.5533.55TF-3.906129.09494433.4638751717563.0600337862230.086773024173254161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.4916.89822.694145.089622829470.0673228710.4873228713.013.497322871TF-3.51130.4994433.3010268072662.8674825510880.094208822099019161112123DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2024187-9927.33815.99821.668145.860095345660.0850394160.5750394163.043.615039416TF-4.662127.33894433.622832040163.2482676254260.073805306049062161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024187-9932.25221.84827.05143.912131312060.1740158420.4940158423.383.874015842TF0.252130.25294432.8080026068162.2863221040620.18882445957346161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.90419.27424.089137.702722406860.0763779940.3463779943.473.816377994TF-3.096124.90494430.1835464359259.2374454788640.10247265680978161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 16:00:04FORECAST2024187-9930.05618.6824.368137.744821209810.0771653960.2871653963.493.777165396TF-1.944122.05694430.2014795584159.2580258859680.12820012469633161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 12:00:05FORECAST2024187-9930.219.68824.944139.975230845810.0444882130.2844882133.483.764488213TF-1.8127.294431.1488459410960.3501592395080.13170575900657161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.86819.4924.179144.422159037770.6295278990.9695278993.524.489527899TF-3.132128.86894433.0217359340662.5379340138790.10173386198333161113124.5WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:05FORECAST2024187-9928.5818.48223.531144.337680695360.6476381450.9976381453.484.477638145TF-3.42127.5894432.9863533862862.4962460205170.095962263368518161114126WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:05FORECAST2024187-9926.07819.47222.775146.354199879810.6519688561.0519688563.734.781968856TF-5.922112.07894433.8288747562363.4926778497060.055544614364408161114126WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:04FORECAST2024187-9928.25618.93223.594134.973168930040.11811030.64811033.614.2581103TF-3.744117.25694429.0167170437857.9057458233630.089760309661509161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024187-9928.77819.65224.215135.077521150040.149606380.639606383.684.31960638TF-3.222119.77894429.061474409557.9565603842180.099903801469908161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:04FORECAST2024187-9930.14618.9524.548139.8930878873900.693.734.42TF-1.854113.14694431.1140508312360.3098758024230.13038349549247161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024187-9931.31617.43824.377137.324204225800.363.654.01TF-0.684115.31694430.0222202295159.052459192430.16110518849658161112123WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:06FORECAST2024187-9931.15417.72624.44139.2726364922100.553.594.14TF-0.846107.15494430.8509978668260.0057544082110.15659112760491161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2024187-9930.41618.0524.233136.1496444598200.483.433.91TF-1.584113.41694429.5206288685458.4790809086110.13708689924178161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 20:00:04FORECAST2024187-9933.58418.75226.168136.189070687930.0539370370.5539370373.273.823937037TF1.584112.58494429.5374899755558.4983115853970.23299342035289161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2024187-9933.58419.9426.762135.787522041430.0555118410.5455118413.233.775511841TF1.584114.58494429.3656838004358.3025022528860.23299342035289161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024187-9941.5421.93831.739133.47256692980.1000000540.3400000543.063.400000054FF9.54124.5494428.3717851920957.1758817698890.57370863066072163112125DRYL
2024-03-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024187-9934.86216.0725.466132.3984450408100.223.083.3FF2.862115.86294427.9086350056256.654437894280.28026624982013162112124DRYL
2024-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024187-9935.43816.75426.096133.1648205089500.233.173.4FF3.438113.43894428.2392172648657.0263985019680.30299195595708162112124DRYL
2024-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024187-9924.20618.64421.425132.6645949140300.223.153.37FF-7.794117.20694428.0235138488256.7835660784320.035195291128934161112123DRYL
2024-03-25 20:00:04FORECAST2024187-9937.11233.24235.177127.95756402973003.323.32FF5.112154.11294425.9803048064354.5074021276750.37322438914727162111122DRYL
2024-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2024187-9937.09433.49435.294126.92904900126003.213.21FF5.094158.09494425.53058978354.0121930821010.37244099891477162111122DRYL
2024-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024187-9928.11223.5425.826131.9749764400900.253.093.34FF-3.888114.11294427.7256921817856.449088148510.087101241299682161112123DRYL
2024-03-25 08:00:05FORECAST2024187-9936.06833.96235.015130.436546497660.2173229520.3073229523.183.487322952FF4.068130.06894427.0594160788555.7041553826320.32874863519276162112124DRYL
2024-03-25 04:00:06FORECAST2024187-9938.89437.63438.264130.1790998442300.133.083.21FF6.894135.89494426.9476644098455.5796626334680.45286607543448162112124DRYL