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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 16, 2024

[ Monday, April 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 17, 2024 ]

DAY 199 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/17/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.158
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 135

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 126 in
SWE DAY: 106
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-17 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024199-8731.9299819.6899825.80998126.1053908333300.012.472.48FF-0.07002134.92998106432.86922043918 54.5871422232030.1583269340080816 1111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024199-8629.15616.98823.072125.113218739580.0307086780.0407086782.472.510708678FF-2.844132.156107433.0803053980954.1840709810750.097419400829936161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:01FORECAST2024199-8627.5917.0622.325125.117827066010.0299212760.0399212762.472.509921276FF-4.41130.59107433.0822346259154.1863081372850.071718505610394161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2024199-8627.69817.38422.541125.058746179810.015748040.025748042.472.49574804FF-4.302130.698107433.0574993177154.1576278884390.073305148334767161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024199-8627.44617.94222.694125.523743523570.0267716680.0367716682.472.506771668FF-4.554130.446107433.2520787522554.3834228143530.06964398945315161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2024199-8728.7617.43823.099125.117066420630.0295275750.0295275752.472.499527575FF-3.24131.76106432.4544159774254.1074278877390.090359852396449161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:01FORECAST2024199-8729.04817.13223.09125.246362911810.059055150.059055152.472.52905515FF-2.952133.048106432.5087415513954.1701468068770.095455260461137161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:01FORECAST2024199-8728.11216.89822.505125.201627969560.047244120.047244122.472.51724412FF-3.888132.112106432.4899476119454.1484455214830.079635873743244161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2024199-8728.418.28423.342125.001750571740.0122047310.0122047312.472.482204731FF-3.6132.4106432.4059494949654.0515006445070.08427724924619161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024199-8729.31818.4123.864124.980812002.472.47FF-2.682132.318106432.3971476299254.0413466172710.1004207639408161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.28218.06823.675125.44535418333002.472.47FF-2.718132.282106432.5923154276354.2666962258070.099748050578571161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024199-8728.47217.8723.171126.1143016002.472.47FF-3.528129.472106432.8729555958754.59147047650.085468599399707161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024199-8728.79618.08623.441128.096912333050.0244094620.0244094622.472.494409462FF-3.204128.796106433.701914943655.5558761772060.090985538947349161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.15618.75223.954128.090197379480.0251968640.0251968642.472.495196864FF-2.844130.156106433.6991143601355.5526051616920.097419400829936161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024199-8729.55218.42823.99127.1927264002.472.47FF-2.448129.552106433.3243789580855.1157091752650.10487395500934161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024199-8728.56217.83423.198127.203577450230.0122047310.0122047312.472.482204731FF-3.438128.562106433.3289148741355.1209881846160.086975408224927161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024199-8728.68817.45623.072127.428669773950.0259842660.0259842662.472.495984266FF-3.312128.688106433.4229789491755.2305136569570.089118042790185161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.85819.18424.521129.697990926380.0125984320.0125984322.472.482598432FF-2.142128.858106434.3683098570756.3366971105510.11091002547197161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.62417.63623.63132.0059632002.472.47FF-2.376123.624106435.3241689583857.4653862275910.10627241862329161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024199-8729.62419.11224.368131.9612896002.472.47FF-2.376123.624106435.3057202786957.4435042182320.10627241862329161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.4818.4123.945130.9392088002.472.47FF-2.52121.48106434.8830632808856.9432442265190.10348882114234161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024199-8730.41618.7724.593130.9111648002.472.47FF-1.584121.416106434.8714508839956.9295281734890.12254744941842161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.51419.43625.475130.39786748333002.472.47FF-0.486124.514106434.6587596866956.6785753460950.14787679867823161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024199-8732.32419.18425.754130.43668002.472.47FF0.324117.324106434.67485183456.6975445527190.16866051093887161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.53218.44624.989132.0346568002.472.47FF-0.468115.532106435.3360173367157.4794416417310.14831922945573161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024199-8730.95618.69824.827131.9499344002.472.47FF-1.044113.956106435.3010306330257.437942436280.13459796209012161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024199-873218.5925.295131.474955512840.0122047310.0222047312.472.492204731FF0117106435.1047453160757.2053770338550.16013235205107161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.40619.34625.376132.202508043320.0653543660.1453543662.472.615354366FF-0.594112.406106435.4053104435657.5616740560210.14524073057976161112123DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024199-8731.3718.48224.926132.30047942510.0661417680.1461417682.472.616141768FF-0.63111.37106435.4457417790857.6096804009890.14436909117255161112123DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024199-8730.16418.73424.449137.709481109360.1606300080.3706300082.462.830630008FF-1.836103.164106437.6624166192660.2702642937080.1171901802611161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024199-8729.82218.9524.386138.417622387350.161417410.391417412.472.86141741FF-2.17898.822106437.950373522260.6200494265960.11018729204029161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024199-8730.59619.65225.124138.259143674760.1586615030.3886615032.472.858661503FF-1.40498.596106437.8859750900860.5417399431410.12647745985847161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.2818.4124.845137.727750711320.0814961070.3114961072.472.781496107FF-0.7297.28106437.6698522379760.2792843028930.14220540028983161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.8217.16824.494137.910364708460.0161417410.3261417412.52.826141741FF-0.1895.82106437.7441560841860.3694562145670.15551817135177161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024199-8731.76617.70824.737137.8923193770.0181102460.3581102462.522.878110246FF-0.23497.766106437.7368151501160.3605447177490.15415114800795161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024199-8732.16218.19425.178143.729584709190.0897638280.2897638282.462.749763828FF0.16288.162106440.093981639463.2545252140470.16436066437092161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024199-8731.33418.33824.836144.184505195930.0972441470.3072441472.462.767244147FF-0.66688.334106440.2762208749263.4810090563820.14350097431697161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024199-8731.13617.65424.395143.970641214890.0988189510.2188189512.522.738818951FF-0.86487.136106440.190574090563.3745192085580.1387892208978161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024199-8731.15420.42625.79143.583147277730.1070866720.2270866722.52.727086672FF-0.84693.154106440.0352746036963.181649640820.13921316895008161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024199-8729.53418.39223.963144.004927802240.0318897810.2218897812.522.741889781FF-2.46680.534106440.204308080263.3915896033220.10452642367846161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024199-8728.32816.95222.64144.638345458710.0279527710.1979527712.542.737952771FF-3.67276.328106440.4578176706163.7070899922320.083098363728793161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.31618.15824.737143.932404059950.0263779670.2563779672.632.886377967FF-0.68486.316106440.1752562328963.3554828373030.14306823634949161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024199-8732.07218.06825.07139.8060292971600.212.632.84FF0.07200000000000388.072106438.5134510004261.3068243777660.16200276710286161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024199-8730.50618.42824.467139.3171152458900.192.592.78FF-1.49489.506106438.3153951874861.0648364253820.12450164616239161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.91219.14824.53140.706901960590.090551230.210551232.522.73055123FF-2.08894.912106438.8777449913761.7531278371860.11200046241091161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024199-8731.26218.91425.088140.899464152680.1204725060.2704725062.562.830472506FF-0.73892.262106438.955505025361.8485954449320.14177530176164161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024199-8731.47820.22825.853140.190123237530.1204725060.2604725062.582.840472506FF-0.52297.478106438.6688724690361.4970432919010.14699458297248161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024199-8732.1820.2126.195143.514295927360.0145669370.2045669372.332.534566937FF0.18102.18106440.0076644227163.1473901622650.16483489367051161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:04FORECAST2024199-8731.20819.77825.493140.654188349750.0980315490.2280315492.372.598031549FF-0.792105.208106438.8564516672461.7269980113060.1404902814433161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024199-8730.27219.34624.809139.669269375520.0980315490.2280315492.312.538031549FF-1.728111.272106438.4580752454861.2391190213340.11946554768036161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024199-8730.30820.22825.268146.212916188640.4940947550.7940947552.633.424094755TF-1.692102.308106441.0862359658264.4925048512350.12023086342479161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024199-8730.27217.97824.125144.7487721156100.422.412.83FF-1.72889.272106440.5019714452963.7621194812110.11946554768036161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024199-8731.98218.15825.07144.8934070559300.472.292.76FF-0.01800000000000184.982106440.559784571563.834208198390.15966695736797161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024199-8732.64820.64226.645142.653694076790.0397638010.1697638012.512.679763801FF0.64878.648106439.6621455325562.7194292059450.17747443508804161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 20:00:04FORECAST2024199-8733.76420.60627.185145.113088811010.0456693160.5256693162.412.935669316FF1.76473.764106440.6475546094163.9437277263920.20999825458318161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024199-8732.28816.05224.17146.875787491340.0330708840.5630708842.553.113070884FF0.28861.288106441.350040074864.823634695320.16769881102675161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024199-8738.01224.49431.253142.4011800925100.082.322.4FF6.01267.012106439.5606215094362.5939512251410.361254301064162111122DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024199-8742.31424.60233.458142.447424060800.042.42.44FF10.31467.314106439.5792189098262.6169274043640.54057837444021163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024199-8742.31425.50233.908142.608634763900.042.592.63FF10.31471.314106439.6440340700862.697035480830.54057837444021163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024199-8729.76826.1527.959142.9466369194100.042.432.47FF-2.23257.768106439.7798425425562.8650494764070.10910951574018161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024199-8733.33226.7830.056142.4323637451100.092.662.75FF1.33262.332106439.5731625171962.6094445762350.19701381847637161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024199-8733.33227.44630.389142.3723921199400.12.692.79FF1.33266.332106439.5490430811262.5796487174910.19701381847637161112123DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024199-8733.49432.05432.774144.522754323440.2240158690.2240158693.093.314015869FF1.49476.494106440.4115856257363.6494953905820.20182512676772161112123DRYL
2024-04-06 08:00:04FORECAST2024199-8739.03836.6837.859139.11719846040.0570866450.2970866452.512.807086645FF7.03896.038106438.2343393609460.9659335610360.40279619236448162112124DRYL
2024-04-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024199-8739.1138.33638.723137.7503116445200.242.192.43FF7.11100.11106437.6790339267160.2904233236790.40575924355798162112124DRYL