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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 17, 2024

[ Tuesday, April 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 18, 2024 ]

DAY 200 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/18/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.455
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 135

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 107
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.13 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024200-8640.9499618.9300229.93999125.0030308333300.012.472.48FF8.94996134.94996107433.0341696541 54.1305836611580.4549320857318516 2111122DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:01FORECAST2024200-8536.73415.58426.159125.882510400.012.472.48FF4.734130.734108434.0259548127354.6362767705830.29258582446628162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024200-8534.91616.55625.736125.92718400.012.472.48FF2.916128.916108434.0445487003854.658007748390.23195267221494161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:01FORECAST2024200-8535.3316.46625.898125.920886400.012.472.48FF3.33129.33108434.0419276633554.6549442661340.24511634019097161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024200-8536.64417.0626.852125.9815052333300.012.472.48FF4.644130.644108434.0671552494854.684433590680.28941912526316162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024200-8636.515.33225.916125.0097019395800.042.472.51FF4.5127.5107433.0369632176154.1338217006530.2843861304995162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024200-8637.74215.1726.456124.828488800.042.472.51FF5.742127.742107432.9610623658954.0458751243770.32909881330676162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024200-8637.11215.67426.393124.85387600.042.472.51FF5.112127.112107432.9716978609954.0581946762450.30605830541874162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024200-8637.47215.74626.609124.9532038660100.042.472.51FF5.472127.472107433.0133028322454.1063995054910.31913801529172162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8636.66217.90627.284124.9199037798100.032.472.5FF4.662126.662107432.9993557596954.0902378582220.290051176934162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024200-8636.01418.21227.113125.4086155235700.042.472.51FF4.014125.014107433.2039245237154.3275044138980.26771521741169162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2024200-8636.33818.24827.293124.9963296206300.032.472.5FF4.338127.338107433.0313634356854.1273310400760.27877444210527162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:01FORECAST2024200-8636.7718.26627.518125.1109645118100.062.472.53FF4.77128.77107433.0793616809254.1829766500590.29385699165015162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024200-8636.08618.17627.131125.0859095695600.052.472.52FF4.086127.086107433.0688722353554.170813789820.27015361850936162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2024200-8635.90618.19427.05124.8947897717400.012.472.48FF3.906126.906107432.9888364812754.078049705840.26407850365815162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024200-8636.4118.24827.329124.8621416002.472.47FF4.41127.41107432.9751604323354.0622057911840.28126187160427162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2024200-8637.20218.42827.815125.27571258333002.472.47FF5.202128.202107433.1483181132254.2629642059060.30930601334192162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024200-8636.60818.91427.761125.9787064002.472.47FF4.608124.608107433.4422369344554.6044923081240.28815696462863162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024200-8637.16619.00428.085127.9411451330500.022.472.49FF5.166125.166107434.2599524930155.5597156073790.30800512408163162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024200-8636.21218.62627.419127.9752661794800.032.472.5FF4.212125.212107434.2741341453955.5763479121180.27444734551625162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024200-8636.42818.08627.257127.0776968002.472.47FF4.428125.428107433.9006700506555.1390977900130.28188539724444162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8636.44617.7827.113127.0860878502300.012.472.48FF4.446124.446107433.9041653750155.1431828794290.28250958737537162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024200-8635.83417.20426.519127.3250545739500.032.472.5FF3.834123.834107434.0036766216655.259541811150.26166807027664162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024200-8637.29218.35627.824129.5411413263800.012.472.48FF5.292125.292107434.9236345516756.3405040096420.3125686749516162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024200-8636.55419.70628.13131.8704664002.472.47FF4.554119.554107435.8850350246357.4803628654780.28626860261964162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024200-8637.07620.06628.571131.7915496002.472.47FF5.076120.076107435.8525560849857.441683763560.30476345567853162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024200-8637.1319.92228.526130.8008584002.472.47FF5.13117.13107435.4442736077256.9564847732540.30670664074084162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8638.2119.47228.841130.7345368002.472.47FF6.21118.21107435.4169045203256.9240273273540.34665134694581162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2024200-8638.26420.69629.48130.17814028333002.472.47FF6.264122.264107435.1871134107656.6518490990850.34869887442096162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024200-8638.78622.56830.677130.1953048002.472.47FF6.786114.786107435.1942071917856.6602424525290.36871113088836162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024200-8637.52621.95629.741131.875830551680.0259842660.0259842662.472.495984266FF5.526112.526107435.8872424546257.4829921255850.32112006063096162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024200-8639.52420.71430.119131.6896664002.472.47FF7.524112.524107435.8106154816257.3917545663530.39761036922787162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024200-8636.60820.71428.661131.3355227128400.022.472.49FF4.608112.608107435.6647464370357.2182572008640.28815696462863162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8635.0621.41628.238132.1285112433200.152.472.62FF3.06106.06107435.9911903326157.6068668938530.2364862278668161112123DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024200-8635.47420.62428.049132.216347425100.152.472.62FF3.474105.474107436.0273087905457.649938145880.24978729888531162112124DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024200-8633.7119.38226.546137.6768123093600.372.462.83FF1.7195.71107438.2569175506360.3378153808990.19593584937341161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024200-8633.02620.46226.744138.781145710550.0814961070.4714961072.472.941496107FF1.02691.026107438.7040900345760.88385624290.17710534146534161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024200-8633.6221.3827.5138.609166963380.0842520140.4742520142.472.944252014FF1.6291.62107438.6345339283160.7987673491740.19339111634214161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024200-8634.10621.48827.797137.89351002640.0476378210.3576378212.472.827637821FF2.10690.106107438.3447628732760.4448979542850.20737143000579161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8634.71821.86628.292137.8421735084600.332.52.83FF2.71889.718107438.3239563506360.4195268441990.22579869261908161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024200-8634.93422.53228.733137.81123777700.362.522.88FF2.93491.934107438.3114168898360.4042388933770.23251671104933161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024200-8636.06821.95629.012144.243248730850.1594489050.4494489052.462.909448905FF4.06883.068107440.8974825023263.5964852333870.26954297958151162112124DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024200-8635.83421.4728.652144.398826385960.0535433360.3635433362.462.823543336FF3.83482.834107440.9595124975463.6740360883710.26166807027664162112124DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024200-8634.3420.53427.437144.171740570660.0425197080.2625197082.522.782519708FF2.3480.34107440.8689634310663.5608458214390.2143100471333161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024200-8635.6919.61627.653143.4871088777300.232.52.73FF3.6987.69107440.5956544646463.2197966432240.25688125714758162112124DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024200-8631.65819.86825.763144.127626919630.0224409570.2424409572.522.762440957FF-0.34271.658107440.851367325963.5388613969550.1430000771816161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024200-8631.13617.92424.53145.082966027670.0783464990.2783464992.542.818346499FF-0.86466.136107441.2319934724664.0152463192870.13123803221782161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024200-8634.86220.19227.527143.8532904599500.262.632.89FF2.86279.862107440.7418954081763.4021718980190.23026512796853161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024200-8635.88821.45228.67139.852068356650.0429134090.2529134092.632.882913409FF3.88882.888107439.1365373316461.4141530368050.26347483779391162112124DRYL
2024-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024200-8634.35821.57827.968139.602961395180.0606299540.2506299542.592.840629954FF2.35883.358107439.0360508717161.2907328609340.21484931189331161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024200-8633.69220.91227.302140.913558953570.0413386050.2513386052.522.771338605FF1.69287.692107439.564016634661.940529971910.19542528747801161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8635.5118.03226.771140.8128721526800.272.562.83FF3.5186.51107439.5235179033461.8905689346170.25096236842714162112124DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024200-8636.01418.17627.095140.0860160375300.222.622.84FF4.01492.014107439.2308508605461.5301000178270.26771521741169162112124DRYL
2024-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024200-8637.68819.27428.481143.3281231273600.082.452.53FF5.68898.688107440.5321183973163.1406417072040.32709663611972162111122DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:04FORECAST2024200-8637.23819.9428.589140.902165879210.0523622330.1523622332.52.652362233FF5.238101.238107439.5594345768861.9348763645230.31060929523144162112124DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024200-8635.72619.79627.761139.965832600750.0523622330.1523622332.442.592362233FF3.726105.726107439.1824071815461.4705312847670.25807367979942162112124DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024200-8632.9921.18227.086146.924406866750.102362260.752362262.773.52236226TF0.9993.99107441.9630594051764.9351603601170.17614692120916161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024200-8642.36820.04831.208144.2914089156100.342.492.83FF10.36890.368107440.9166869541363.6204899750140.51288542134492163112125DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024200-8641.41420.1230.767144.4536574559300.422.342.76FF9.41485.414107440.981368221363.7013715094850.47385146525675162112124DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024200-8629.94822.98226.465142.6536940767900.082.62.68FF-2.05267.948107440.2623083479862.8050446486130.10700243815881161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-07 20:00:04FORECAST2024200-8626.5123.91825.214145.1130888110100.362.582.94FF-5.4959.51107441.24397997664.0302768535830.055215598026856161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024200-8623.88221.81222.847146.8757874913400.322.793.11FF-8.11843.882107441.9438010621564.9108438079180.030950133150195161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024200-8629.94827.98628.967142.40118009251002.42.4FF-2.05255.948107440.1611693840762.6794699511930.10700243815881161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024200-8631.33428.23829.786142.4474240608002.442.44FF-0.66657.334107440.1796962484562.7024638544580.13561857130914161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:07FORECAST2024200-8630.12829.42629.777142.6086347639002.632.63FF-1.87260.128107440.2442655784762.7826336767840.11045176162464161111121.5DRYL