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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 10, 2024

[ Tuesday, April 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 11, 2024 ]

DAY 193 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/11/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.671
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 71

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 100
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024193-9344.8800824.0999834.49003137.6932941666701.23.54.7TF12.8800870.88008100433.96029220559 59.7534221713170.6713159820632416 31141210WETL
2024-04-11 00:00:01FORECAST2024193-9242.02623.64832.837143.615452801.23.54.7TF10.02668.026101437.0203705968362.7628784060870.558503028752741631141210WETL
2024-04-10 12:00:01FORECAST2024193-9240.53223.6332.081143.670556801.23.54.7TF8.53266.532101437.0428864032862.7901948350380.49682278269185162114128WETL
2024-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024193-9240.20823.1831.694143.715722401.23.54.7TF8.20866.208101437.0613389732662.8125860636530.48340527363457162114128WETL
2024-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024193-9240.87422.87431.874144.0838832333301.23.54.7TF8.87466.874101437.2116734897762.995155711350.510989304298981631141210WETL
2024-04-10 00:00:01FORECAST2024193-9341.50421.50631.505143.0320126669501.223.54.72TF9.50466.504100436.1683662426162.3860392853340.53703618106771631141210WETL
2024-04-09 20:00:01FORECAST2024193-9341.55822.2831.919139.63493601.263.54.76TF9.55866.558100434.7668147537160.7086363530580.539262986151251631141210WETL
2024-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024193-9341.10823.4532.279139.638183201.263.54.76TF9.10866.108100434.768160252460.7102360108510.520675287921241631141210WETL
2024-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024193-9341.4521.12831.289141.1698162966401.263.54.76TF9.4566.45100435.4015670043461.4655592292720.534808214841151631141210WETL
2024-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024193-9341.70222.7332.216141.1179542406701.243.54.74TF9.70265.702100435.380159737261.4399574590880.545194929174671631141210WETL
2024-04-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024193-9342.67423.28832.981140.8425549665901.193.54.69TF10.67467.674100435.266435036961.3040368017940.584907483860581631141210WETL
2024-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024193-9342.58422.17232.378144.7574953366100.973.54.47TF10.58467.584100436.8756406487363.2410235138860.58126023505787163113127.5WETL
2024-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024193-9341.3621.14631.253142.5944429132301.053.54.55TF9.3667.36100435.9885133817262.1695391822360.531092546231751631141210WETL
2024-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024193-9342.13423.05432.594142.2474755832700.983.54.48TF10.13469.134100435.8457583758361.9979588726380.56292518187423163113127.5WETL
2024-04-08 12:00:01FORECAST2024193-9341.84622.69432.27143.545155567100.953.54.45TF9.84668.846100436.3790271834162.6400953432630.55111681113877163113127.5WETL
2024-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024193-9341.5762332.288143.5424201917300.953.54.45TF9.57668.576100436.3779049554662.6387405955040.54000498448784163113127.5WETL
2024-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024193-9341.66622.17231.919142.9959529836600.853.54.35TF9.66666.666100436.1535523058162.3681928591770.54371283553408163113127.5WETL
2024-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024193-9340.98221.90231.442140.5203710446400.793.54.29TF8.98266.982100435.1332898485461.1450913433920.51546091018863163113127.5WETL
2024-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024193-9341.6322.62232.126140.2609739899600.793.484.27TF9.6366.63100435.026012650461.0171722453150.54223013349496163113127.5WETL
2024-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2024193-9341.12621.75831.442140.452647052300.793.484.27TF9.12665.126100435.1052884831961.1116895139190.52141993112147163113127.5WETL
2024-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2024193-9340.26220.82230.542140.7033175844800.813.484.29TF8.26264.262100435.2089073983661.2353371132670.48564063103722162113126WETL
2024-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024193-9338.91220.98429.948140.59141186600.813.444.25TF6.91262.912100435.1626574240461.1801323986050.43007337866022162113126WETL
2024-04-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024193-9340.96420.9330.947141.0709927032700.933.494.42TF8.96461.964100435.3607728398161.4167764085730.51471576234439163113127.5WETL
2024-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024193-9338.49821.81230.155138.8479447118600.73.34TF6.49862.498100434.4403922451760.3211555630570.41325578506044162113126WETL
2024-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024193-9339.05622.44230.749136.7422386661600.713.253.96TF7.05662.056100433.5637874513559.2864829006750.4359544836644162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024193-9339.95623.6331.793136.6837493768300.73.273.97TF7.95663.956100433.539371390759.2577867841550.47298163365259162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024193-9338.58824.94431.766137.7855520750400.83.244.04TF6.58864.588100433.9987045304759.7987511035830.41689938922515162113126WETL
2024-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024193-9337.99424.00831.001138.2493762704600.763.354.11TF5.99458.994100434.1916851533260.0267296542660.39299785084939162113126WETL
2024-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024193-9342.92624.87233.899137.2660030663300.673.344.01TF10.92664.926100433.7822686724159.5435582217070.59507997151192163113127.5WETL
2024-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024193-9343.39424.6234.007131.1558049947300.233.383.61FF11.39464.394100431.2153094300856.5563910343540.61379746427997163112125DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024193-9342.33224.40433.368130.1331650697700.083.363.44FF10.33265.332100430.781782243856.0589967777820.57101169150929163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024193-9343.2526.88835.069130.1209941048700.113.363.47FF11.2566.25100430.7766158294456.0530814888590.60806417506566163112125DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024193-9341.73823.82832.783129.52411138831003.263.26FF9.73867.738100430.5230508941455.7631155992470.546676393966163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024193-9341.75623.43232.594128.90256324555003.113.11FF9.75668.756100430.2585988066255.4614362446110.54741688415955163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024193-9342.20623.16232.684129.30707473257003.123.12FF10.20668.206100430.4307550458355.6577418099060.56586895770954163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2024193-9341.59424.67433.134130.1851369593500.0933.09FF9.59463.594100430.8038418296356.0842571512060.54074684353366163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:04FORECAST2024193-9343.4325.28634.358128.5277835030700.1233.12FF11.4369.43100430.09893817855.2796632110410.61522696754197163112125DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024193-9343.17824.65633.917128.8763281215300.163.073.23FF11.17873.178100430.2474272783155.4487086113650.60518862291132163112125DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024193-9346.07627.33836.707128.55604992989003.123.12FF14.07676.076100430.1109853120655.2933693031720.71489542671655164111123DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024193-9343.77226.52835.15129.07706945372003.173.17FF11.77272.772100430.3328886828255.5461081607310.62872667678825163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:06FORECAST2024193-9344.85226.31235.582128.55602024356003.173.17FF12.85275.852100430.1109726602255.2933549082860.67026098173978163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024193-9339.7422.98231.361127.4099606912003.163.16FF7.7465.74100429.6218286660854.7381003024270.46406151656837162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024193-9340.6423.55832.099126.84735964198003.163.16FF8.6465.64100429.3811861387354.465869741640.50129683481637163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024193-9340.20824.3532.279126.93224318802003.173.17FF8.20865.208100429.4175155874154.5069285177370.48340527363457162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024193-9341.61228.5835.096125.9887671652002.92.9FF9.61271.612100429.0132750858854.0508536255760.54148856072384163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024193-9344.76228.47236.617125.50229583096002.842.84FF12.76266.762100428.8044633866753.8159446175910.66687047185586163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:06FORECAST2024193-9345.62628.77837.202125.3564283047002.822.82FF13.62672.626100428.7418012881553.7455408744060.69882050341611163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2024193-9346.79630.18238.489129.2863704146400.123.033.15FF14.79683.796100430.4219477795655.6476913752180.73973162246266164112126DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024193-9343.68229.55236.617130.8385779667500.122.842.96FF11.68270.682100431.0809480079856.4020182259230.6251886766688163112125DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024193-9344.29430.81237.553130.7064796647800.182.772.95FF12.29472.294100431.0249658723856.3377559368120.64902475914583163112125DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024193-9340.74829.28235.015131.0741233617900.1433.14FF8.74866.748100431.1807235450256.5166353491650.50577072383927163112125DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024193-9342.69228.29235.492128.8513408741400.012.752.76FF10.69273.692100430.2367864328155.4365868252470.58563606713176163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024193-9339.95626.20433.08130.5158133465700.082.782.86FF7.95664.956100430.9441299810256.2450236314030.47298163365259162111122DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2024193-9337.88625.3431.613130.25884161752002.662.66FF5.88656.886100430.8351209453256.1200837824820.38869229988811162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024193-9337.74223.30630.524133.692855225860.1633859150.2733859152.592.863385915FF5.74254.742100432.2859900136657.7935482790620.38297284712737162112124DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:04FORECAST2024193-9341.30623.86432.585134.125452718120.1492126790.2692126792.722.989212679FF9.30665.306100432.4678663544458.0049483608290.52886182357206163112125DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:07FORECAST2024193-9346.95822.5534.754131.854254809620.07874020.07874022.722.7987402FF14.95869.958100431.5107563457756.8965292203070.74516228653815164111123DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2024193-933224.828.4132.692062171210.1448819680.2248819682.642.864881968FF053100431.864461283257.3049859461260.18565157130979161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024193-9337.47224.831.136131.743357894280.0125984320.1525984322.562.712598432FF5.47253.472100431.4638815274656.8425005625290.37231822429785162112124DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024193-9327.28421.86624.575140.071820653970.0370078940.5670078942.723.287007894FF-4.71642.284100434.9477411276960.9239219890860.08312518700824161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:04FORECAST2024193-9328.50824.45826.483138.5502596591400.462.63.06FF-3.49249.508100434.3167504228760.1746985454030.10437482242301161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2024193-9328.79624.38626.591137.3455955842800.362.512.87FF-3.20447.796100433.8154441792659.582640554460.10990036247052161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:05FORECAST2024193-9327.0520.73223.891139.0132253751400.622.463.08FF-4.9548.05100434.5090002923660.4024975851680.07946102511616161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2024193-9325.23224.09824.665139.1584002029600.592.53.09FF-6.76844.232100434.5692386464460.4739600274570.055020102271809161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2024193-9325.32224.96225.142139.8543945254600.732.53.23FF-6.67846.322100434.8577238733160.8167636770220.056071243247946161113124.5DRYL