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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 23, 2024

[ Thursday, February 22, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 24, 2024 ]

DAY 146 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/24/2024 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.796
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 386.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -139

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-24 07:00:07OBSERVATION2024146-13941.1699227.6499434.40993106.8682245833300.524.565.08TF9.169924.1699254386.74459022726 41.3307077247960.7964609406663216 4113129WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024146-13941.1699227.6499434.40993106.8682245833300.524.565.08TF9.169924.1699254386.74459022726 41.3307077247960.7964609406663216 4113129WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2024146-13938.08425.2531.667109.820223200.524.565.08TF6.0841.08454388.3219287478342.6456008885410.6867190804286163113127.5WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:04FORECAST2024146-13937.95825.26831.613109.8727568500.524.565.08TF5.9580.95854388.3498920307942.6690732598220.68174719897668163113127.5WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:09FORECAST2024146-13937.79624.6231.208109.8708872500.524.565.08TF5.7960.79654388.3488969202242.6682378671840.67530649377121163113127.5WETL
2024-02-22 23:00:01FORECAST2024146-13939.30825.19632.252109.7884400.524.565.08TF7.308-3.69254388.3050089680242.6314011787850.73315998105804164113129WETL
2024-02-22 19:00:01FORECAST2024146-13938.80424.31431.559109.800346400.524.565.08TF6.804-4.19654388.3113474975542.6367204662820.71446227737875164113129WETL
2024-02-22 15:00:01FORECAST2024146-13939.09224.72831.91109.812843200.524.565.08TF7.092-3.90854388.3180001281442.6423036598090.7252228099904164113129WETL
2024-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2024146-13938.37225.14231.757109.78155200.524.565.08TF6.372-4.62854388.3013419625842.6283239643350.69795573658651163113127.5WETL
2024-02-22 07:00:07FORECAST2024146-13938.22826.3332.279110.1556633333300.524.565.08TF6.228-5.77254388.500416975742.7955211372350.69235994638597163113127.5WETL
2024-02-22 03:00:07FORECAST2024146-13938.0326.09632.063110.1464137333300.524.565.08TF6.03-5.9754388.4954972874642.7913857777610.68459235512616163113127.5WETL
2024-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2024146-13937.43625.82631.631106.81205600.914.565.47TF5.436-7.56454386.7144629156241.3057668689530.66080719459786163113127.5WETL
2024-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2024146-13937.8525.80831.829106.780863200.914.565.47TF5.85-6.1554386.6977300834841.2919174157950.67745934477801163113127.5WETL
2024-02-21 15:00:01FORECAST2024146-13938.69626.65432.675106.713754400.914.565.47TF6.696-4.30454386.6617262465641.2621244905560.71037605073486164113129WETL
2024-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2024146-13938.85825.32232.09109.7332851380300.914.565.47TF6.858-5.14254388.2756440468442.6067619603450.71649505908445164113129WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:06FORECAST2024146-13937.88626.92432.405109.6376512801014.565.56TF5.886-6.11454388.2247180097442.5640462514670.678891288554421631141210WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2024146-13936.84225.77231.307109.2371729893700.864.565.42TF4.842-7.15854388.0113246824242.385260196170.63636364552531163113127.5WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:04FORECAST2024146-13937.45426.22231.838108.8582995180600.864.355.21TF5.454-7.54654387.8092434851942.2162547831810.66153806699964163113127.5WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2024146-13937.92227.51832.72108.2838821775500.744.355.09TF5.922-5.07854387.5024931371541.9602743103690.68032057922198163113127.5WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:03FORECAST2024146-13939.79426.99633.395108.3219260284600.84.355.15TF7.794-2.20654387.5228231565941.9772185843090.75058538350676164113129WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2024146-13939.45227.21233.332109.147655838900.694.355.04TF7.452-2.54854387.9635961207542.3453170674080.73838638580034164113129WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:07FORECAST2024146-13939.5627.30233.431108.4832905685700.694.264.95TF7.56-4.4454387.60903192642.0491032374290.74227146742953164113129WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2024146-13940.20827.66233.935108.2227192130900.614.274.88TF8.208-0.79254387.4698045185741.9330358579630.76493874918754164113129WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:04FORECAST2024146-13941.21627.39234.304108.6474120491600.474.344.81TF9.216-7.78454387.6966773496142.1222406540950.79790499976203164112126WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:04FORECAST2024146-13941.28827.84234.565108.9761480810300.544.344.88TF9.288-8.71254387.8721216640142.2688097669610.80014905451597164113129WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:04FORECAST2024146-13939.05626.1532.603109.2299887814600.574.364.93TF7.056-9.94454388.0074946224242.3820542847280.72388873383248164113129WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:03FORECAST2024146-13939.93827.4133.674109.8299655012900.634.435.06TF7.938-9.06254388.3271147863542.64995362020.755629992075164113129WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:06FORECAST2024146-13937.68826.2431.964109.9580934890300.724.285TF5.688-12.31254388.395308155442.7072076048530.67098324885069163113127.5WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024146-13939.23627.66233.449109.588776163200.734.234.96TF7.236-6.76454388.1986867180242.5422189855890.73052716242912164113129WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024146-13938.3926.38432.387109.249578886500.464.034.49TF6.39-11.6154388.017938375842.3907963679620.69865198814525163112125WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2024146-13938.19224.69231.442109.1520718044400.44.074.47TF6.192-12.80854387.9659508702442.3472873270670.69095391388908163112125WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:03FORECAST2024146-13939.07426.49232.783109.4767189385500.464.114.57TF7.074-10.92654388.1389919132842.4921833267810.72455616877808164112126WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:04FORECAST2024146-13939.68626.31232.999110.3595711012700.484.074.55TF7.686-12.31454388.6088423271642.8867051653870.74676596695329164112126WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:06FORECAST2024146-13940.29827.39233.845109.8631061989300.434.094.52TF8.298-7.70254388.344755338642.6647610975630.76799764504401164112126WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2024146-13940.2827.93234.106109.8733344226600.414.034.44TF8.28-10.7254388.3501994478142.6693313370350.76738764175873164112126WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2024146-13938.78626.72632.756116.3641463381100.474.114.58TF6.786-4.21454391.7766532324245.5887558085930.7137831467272164112126WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024146-13938.46226.40232.432117.2133407930600.534.224.75TF6.462-8.53854392.2207726475745.9735070904560.70142974590398164113129WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:05FORECAST2024146-13936.08624.15230.119116.816103021400.364.264.62TF4.086-14.91454392.0131408794445.7934474507160.60444498229162163112125WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024146-13936.39225.9731.181115.6268717560600.154.154.3TF4.392-10.60854391.3902890365545.2552347569980.61746257362319163112125WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:08FORECAST2024146-13936.5925.95231.271114.8055758261500.164.064.22TF4.59-9.4154390.9590411955244.884277848890.62581657254257163112125WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:09FORECAST2024146-13935.22223.77429.498115.5503576744400.234.094.32TF3.222-14.77854391.350150848145.2206499064450.56710169072105163112125WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2024146-13934.0723.19828.634117.5679438369900.474.174.64TF2.07-12.9354392.4059428238746.1343598472170.5164215717995163112125WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024146-13935.72621.27228.499116.9043206298300.374.084.45TF3.726-15.27454392.0592693408345.8334225289190.58898072714995163112125WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:05FORECAST2024146-13938.42623.01830.722115.9103631288400.154.214.36TF6.426-3.57454391.5389365644545.3834203162660.70004232073792164112126WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:05FORECAST2024146-13936.96825.35831.163114.4019575314200.014.024.03TF4.968-1.03254390.7467785107444.7021963607250.64159926665935163111122.5WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:09FORECAST2024146-13936.4125.26830.839113.2657376807500.033.783.81TF4.411.4154390.1480711219444.1904090803470.61822435630736163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-16 03:00:08FORECAST2024146-13936.62624.20630.416113.3929231142300.033.773.8TF4.626-0.37454390.2151747510144.2476393085480.62732928596767163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-15 23:00:07FORECAST2024146-13936.524.8930.695109.95465864822004.034.03TF4.5-1.554388.3934803246642.7056725502910.62202635355242163111122.5WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024146-13936.7726.90631.838109.99736078231004.024.02TF4.77-3.2354388.4162028861142.724757202560.63336031959319163111122.5WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:05FORECAST2024146-13936.57227.30231.937110.36817005811004.114.11TF4.572-2.42854388.6134134787442.8905513056850.62505948737124163111122.5WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:05FORECAST2024146-13935.36626.5130.938112.59801920403004.084.08TF3.366-12.63454389.7954238649643.8901926219910.57337694988017163111122.5WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:09FORECAST2024146-13938.08427.28432.684113.02831895016004.284.28TF6.084-6.91654390.0227498726144.0836157704210.6867190804286163111122.5WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:08FORECAST2024146-13937.18427.03232.108113.18119166571004.294.29TF5.184-8.81654390.1034522530744.1523735989120.65051254263745163111122.5WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:04FORECAST2024146-13935.627.30231.451111.9738932950200.054.154.2TF3.6-15.454389.4652582489743.6099412692870.58353406888519163111122.5WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:05FORECAST2024146-13935.9627.98631.973112.3997736082800.054.224.27TF3.96-12.0454389.6906077055943.8011360833820.59904982825132163111122.5WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:05FORECAST2024146-13941.926.61834.259119.012558702380.8629925921.1129925924.335.442992592TF9.90.954393.158584951546.7908091708860.818613284156261641141212WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:07FORECAST2024146-13941.0923.95432.522126.753771266340.7444885911.4444885914.616.054488591TT9.09-7.9154397.1450293343850.3396302078140.793941886160061641141212WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:07FORECAST2024146-13935.97822.40629.192126.820208885950.744094891.454094894.656.10409489TT3.978-10.02254397.1789041893250.3703115943830.599821747982351631141210WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:10FORECAST2024146-13933.65623.3628.508120.056359392950.2082678290.8282678294.435.258267829TF1.656-1.34454393.7006874535647.2662712261750.49809987858377162113126WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:05FORECAST2024146-13929.01226.22227.617111.53698008512004.174.17TF-2.988-14.98854389.2338174050243.4139645403590.30150849326789162111122WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:05FORECAST2024146-13928.6727.17627.923113.027045924140.1015748580.1015748584.284.381574858TF-3.33-14.3354390.0220777033244.0830432880030.28841606337092162112124WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:05FORECAST2024146-13929.78627.10428.445118.493700113110.1015748580.8915748584.35.191574858TF-2.214-8.21454392.888578191446.5548213620770.33207890250606162113126WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:05FORECAST2024146-13931.22629.9330.578120.94742512050.0732283861.0432283864.675.713228386TF-0.774-6.77454394.1623305593347.6729189606450.39189041679084162114128WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:09FORECAST2024146-13931.4630.93831.199120.5355412192500.675.075.74TF-0.54-11.5454393.9490717087147.4848645712290.40190061549659162113126WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:09FORECAST2024146-13931.42431.26231.343114.8381599507100.054.844.89TF-0.576-9.57654390.9761676813344.8989836811020.40035621099225162111122WETL