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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 19, 2024

[ Sunday, February 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 20, 2024 ]

DAY 142 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/20/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.727
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -13

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 382.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-20 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024142-14338.5399429.1000233.81998105.611665416670.149999999999980.679999999999983.784.46TF6.53994-13.4600650382.82515972595 40.4308026820590.7271881155322816 4113129WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024142-14338.5399429.1000233.81998105.611665416670.149999999999980.679999999999983.784.46TF6.53994-13.4600650382.82515972595 40.4308026820590.7271881155322816 4113129WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2024142-14332.25226.1529.201106.180507480840.059055150.589055153.784.36905515TF0.252-19.74850383.1356881219540.6815417988080.42826318691422162113126WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2024142-14332.77426.47429.624106.309966394730.0732283860.6032283863.784.383228386TF0.774-19.22650383.2062965249640.7386485058160.45397661618153162113126WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:05FORECAST2024142-14334.19626.92430.56106.080143488560.0047244120.5347244123.784.314724412TF2.196-17.80450383.0809324494740.6372802819730.52469098595824163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2024142-14334.30426.43830.371106.031259138750.0200787510.2600787513.784.040078751TF2.304-19.69650383.0542575157240.6157252428520.53005797518413163112125WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:01FORECAST2024142-14334.3426.67230.506106.09555545660.0425197080.2825197083.784.062519708TF2.34-19.6650383.0893416777640.6440764948050.53184580722894163112125WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2024142-14333.72826.02429.876106.17848263970.0637795620.3037795623.784.083779562TF1.728-20.27250383.1345835655340.6806487297810.50139473418845163112125WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024142-14332.07225.91628.994106.878727087580.0145669370.2545669373.784.034566937TF0.072000000000003-21.92850383.5162303202340.9897265140540.41946099720858162112124WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:05FORECAST2024142-14333.40427.28430.344106.854832255580.0161417410.2561417413.784.036141741TF1.404-19.59650383.503218358440.9791720671640.48525899307667162112124WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:05FORECAST2024142-14331.65826.25828.958106.877035422100.243.784.02TF-0.342-21.34250383.5153091475740.9889792806830.39937512164452162112124WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2024142-14332.43226.74429.588113.412901130170.0559055420.4159055423.784.195905542TF0.432-17.56850387.0449515685643.8958908251760.4371012102282162112124WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2024142-14331.7326.1528.94113.598698533420.0488189240.4588189243.784.238818924TF-0.27-19.2750387.1444359460943.979104067930.40285083764711162112124WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2024142-14331.33426.02428.679113.743884932660.0775590970.4975590973.784.277559097TF-0.666-19.66650387.2221426744444.0441508397390.38383660411391162113126WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2024142-14332.0926.67229.381113.856452446580.141732360.501732363.784.28173236TF0.090000000000003-18.9150387.2823713895844.0945969015160.42033948124241162113126WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:07FORECAST2024142-14332.39626.43829.417113.529833910620.1665355230.5165355233.784.296535523TF0.396-18.60450387.1075681716443.9482579200690.43533094617089162113126WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:07FORECAST2024142-14332.03625.39428.715113.689421609620.1814961610.5414961613.784.321496161TF0.036000000000001-19.96450387.1929961493144.019747783510.4177052369381162113126WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2024142-14334.30426.18630.245114.292149709570.2295276830.5895276833.784.369527683TF2.304-13.69650387.5153268950344.2899597562410.53005797518413163113127.5WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024142-14333.09825.12429.111114.123940880040.1779528520.5279528523.784.307952852TF1.098-14.90250387.4254207487644.2145158129560.47004136692277162113126WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2024142-14333.22426.63629.93114.578208374360.1559055960.6459055963.784.425905596TF1.224-13.77650387.6681345651744.4183203023060.47630342198389162113126WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2024142-14332.82826.49229.66114.27471557890.1255906190.5855906193.784.365590619TF0.828-14.17250387.5060102890944.2821391109020.45664956889298162113126WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:08FORECAST2024142-14333.31429.10231.208113.307568731960.0295275750.3895275753.784.169527575TF1.314-12.68650386.9885309568743.8487295698770.48077999497091162112124WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:06FORECAST2024142-14334.30426.3330.317113.29082101470.0122047310.3522047313.784.132204731TF2.304-13.69650386.9795587604843.8412319278810.53005797518413163112125WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:05FORECAST2024142-14333.29627.48230.389109.712840714070.0913386320.4313386323.914.341338632TF1.296-14.70450385.0539623094942.2453640331810.47988446831347162112124WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2024142-14333.02627.5930.308109.723602889630.0515748310.4215748313.914.331574831TF1.026-15.97450385.0597805734842.2501464524130.46646627365462162112124WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:04FORECAST2024142-14333.33227.08630.209110.311927277770.0622047580.5622047583.914.472204758TF1.332-15.66850385.3775995422542.5117457351850.48167561863605162113126WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2024142-14330.99225.19628.094112.41150803630.0582677480.5482677483.914.458267748TF-1.008-18.00850386.5079509924343.4479416390780.3676354683663162113126WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:08FORECAST2024142-14333.58426.94230.263112.272140144150.1669292240.5469292243.954.496929224TF1.584-18.41650386.4331061345943.3856718482810.49422200575302162113126WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2024142-14333.74626.40230.074112.314151608080.1641733170.5341733173.984.514173317TF1.746-18.25450386.4556703764843.4044407524650.50229134109356163113127.5WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024142-14333.90826.27630.092112.277457295020.1208662070.6308662073.994.620866207TF1.908-23.09250386.4359620948143.3880472313590.51035973904768163113127.5WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:04FORECAST2024142-14333.47625.35829.417112.520275139620.0771653960.7571653963.934.687165396TF1.476-20.52450386.5663438781343.4965513728860.48884355829787162113126WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:04FORECAST2024142-14333.90826.8730.389112.870089014780.2232284670.80322846744.803228467TF1.908-16.09250386.7540361917243.6529624917860.51035973904768163113127.5WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:04FORECAST2024142-14332.9926.8729.93115.748464304330.2641733710.8241733714.265.084173371TF0.99-16.0150388.2921104586344.9442154870730.46467972296913162113126WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024142-14332.46826.90629.687115.59094038510.2692914840.8892914844.235.119291484TF0.468-17.53250388.2082273075644.8733540597130.43887273443125162113126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:08FORECAST2024142-14333.5326.52830.029114.8426429675400.764.144.9TF1.53-17.4750387.8092923022344.5370440953590.49153258958974162113126WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2024142-14332.4526.5129.48112.1529640851200.73.944.64TF0.45-26.5550386.3690838958843.3324379897750.43798681699171162113126WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024142-14333.33226.2429.786112.6802511427700.763.994.75TF1.332-25.66850386.6521995503343.5680669502350.48167561863605162113126WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:04FORECAST2024142-14332.93626.2429.588112.737009502260.0791339010.8491339013.924.769133901TF0.936-22.06450386.682652154843.5934458303360.4620012426456162113126WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:04FORECAST2024142-14334.39427.75231.073114.24559771450.0366141930.9266141934.215.136614193TF2.394-18.60650387.4904491055544.2690779667250.53452634024523163113127.5WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024142-14331.96425.8828.922116.293154259650.0665354690.8665354694.675.536535469TF-0.036000000000001-22.03650388.5819050776245.1894154296980.41419866631706162113126WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:08FORECAST2024142-14333.06225.10629.084114.906821525900.614.75.31TF1.062-16.93850387.8435371405844.5658681021880.46825350026089162113126WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024142-14334.84426.27630.56106.3623108960700.513.564.07TF2.844-22.15650383.2348392359940.7617431170250.55679178591849163113127.5WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024142-14335.74424.1729.957108.0816433510400.424.024.44TF3.744-20.25650384.1702603841541.5217530689150.60072131367029163112125WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2024142-14333.74622.58628.166106.3365212837400.313.834.14TF1.746-17.25450383.2207770019840.7503643100410.50229134109356163112125WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024142-14333.1725.3429.255109.922062573770.177165450.717165453.744.45716545TF1.17-25.8350385.1670436511342.3383558735740.47361887675968162113126WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:09FORECAST2024142-14332.91824.9828.949112.884657562160.185039470.725039474.425.14503947TF0.918-22.08250386.761849315743.6594789181090.4611087926132162113126WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2024142-14332.3625.7929.075116.705703469950.4240159771.2340159774.445.674015977TF0.36-33.6450388.8011293952145.3753093159780.43356197709446162114128WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024142-14332.4527.84230.146120.327186423070.3397639631.3197639634.655.969763963TF0.45-24.5550390.7157200585847.0137232859140.43798681699171162114128WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:05FORECAST2024142-14332.68427.51830.101115.993850251560.2492127331.1492127334.075.219212733TF0.684-22.31650388.4227142225545.0546461478330.44952638259371162114128WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2024142-14330.70425.55628.13112.3395104141800.354.014.36TF-1.296-30.29650386.4692893562843.4157707564020.35417138843749162112124WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:04FORECAST2024142-14330.18225.7927.986114.231620911610.2192914570.4492914574.034.479291457TF-1.818-32.81850387.4829792067944.2628087904520.33023605449043162112124WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:07FORECAST2024142-14330.70424.99827.851111.165794127860.1389764530.3389764533.573.908976453TF-1.296-37.29650385.8380232881842.8919902635530.35417138843749162112124DRYL
2024-02-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024142-14330.43421.57826.006111.784647743190.0484252230.2484252233.733.978425223TF-1.566-43.56650386.1710991558443.1680002877370.34171182781083162112124DRYL
2024-02-10 23:00:04FORECAST2024142-14332.21621.97427.095108.37368760497003.373.37FF0.216-40.78450384.3287446932241.6511233149930.42649974451486162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 19:00:05FORECAST2024142-14336.7724.13430.452109.676276482520.0129921330.0129921333.543.552992133FF4.77-35.2350385.0341937099342.2291166845560.64925969036614163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-10 15:00:04FORECAST2024142-14337.02225.03431.028109.095629347370.0129921330.0429921333.383.422992133FF5.022-36.97850384.7200182887541.9712725177430.66085147691345163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-10 11:00:05FORECAST2024142-14331.6425.10628.373106.671552586670.0464567180.0564567182.872.926456718FF-0.36-44.3650383.4033869121840.8982345489090.39850742548011162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 07:00:16FORECAST2024142-14340.38824.74632.567114.344340688900.114.154.26TF8.388-18.61250387.5432147091144.3133733743690.79817906900594164112126WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:09FORECAST2024142-14340.49624.85432.675113.653878564640.0122047310.0622047314.044.102204731TF8.496-22.50450387.1739728025944.0038236882930.80195503321003164111123WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2024142-14330.4725.55628.013109.5511237172700.163.393.55FF-1.53-22.5350384.9665154629742.173514362490.34336353596991162112124DRYL
2024-02-09 19:00:04FORECAST2024142-14333.15225.32229.237108.5670541557200.143.263.4FF1.152-12.84850384.4336146815441.7368250644080.47272428846926162112124DRYL
2024-02-09 15:00:04FORECAST2024142-14333.54830.86632.207108.2899501337100.13.423.52FF1.5481.54850384.2833147132641.6140209875160.49242902491537162112124DRYL
2024-02-09 11:00:05FORECAST2024142-14325.44824.40424.926108.3040325745400.093.33.39FF-6.552-4.55250384.2909555172141.6202601644360.1513800052875161111121.5DRYL
2024-02-09 07:00:10FORECAST2024142-14324.51221.23622.874109.8151169614600.183.523.7TF-7.488-23.48850385.1092486267742.2908171808880.12558337417947161112123DRYL
2024-02-09 03:00:09FORECAST2024142-14331.51431.0131.262111.3006587870201.052.673.72TF-0.486-3.48650385.910653999642.9521100230870.39244781781706162114128DRYL