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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 18, 2024

[ Saturday, February 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, February 19, 2024 ]

DAY 141 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/19/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.494
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 382.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-19 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024141-14433.1300425.0199629.075106.100509583330.529999999999970.529999999999973.934.46TF1.13004-11.8699649382.27422161696 40.5594897141310.493549734241116 2113126WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024141-14433.1300425.0199629.075106.100509583330.529999999999970.529999999999973.934.46TF1.13004-11.8699649382.27422161696 40.5594897141310.493549734241116 2113126WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:01FORECAST2024141-14430.61423.01826.816106.832043412730.2409450120.2409450123.934.170945012TF-1.386-14.38649382.6745030016840.8818991176190.37431069549565162112124WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:05FORECAST2024141-14431.83823.8127.824106.8214324790.2425198160.2425198163.934.172519816TF-0.162-13.16249382.6687022150640.8772189354910.43155073740686162112124WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:05FORECAST2024141-14431.56823.3627.464106.87703542210.2389765070.2389765073.934.168976507TF-0.432-13.43249382.6990975023840.9017449997680.41875437911491162112124WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:01FORECAST2024141-14432.0924.78228.436113.203541599260.3271655310.3571655313.934.287165531TF0.090000000000003-9.9149386.1295941899443.7112375785870.4435594459178162112124WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:01FORECAST2024141-14431.17224.42227.797113.413893026990.3763781560.4063781563.934.336378156TF-0.828-10.82849386.2427113347443.8052895457740.40014447374842162112124WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:01FORECAST2024141-14430.99224.24227.617113.444537993810.3917324950.4217324953.934.351732495TF-1.008-11.00849386.2591857192643.8189948697890.39175710377207162112124WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2024141-14430.59624.02627.311113.330155329490.330708840.360708843.934.29070884TF-1.404-11.40449386.1976883640743.767844010190.37348598261097162112124WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:06FORECAST2024141-14431.31624.78228.049112.906288016710.3236222220.3536222223.934.283622222TF-0.684-10.68449385.969642053743.5783995714220.40688788793901162112124WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:07FORECAST2024141-14430.86624.04427.455112.971619011680.3625986210.3625986213.934.292598621TF-1.134-12.13449386.0048070136843.6075879946260.38591547669974162112124WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2024141-14431.98225.17828.58113.359746630230.3606301160.3606301163.934.290630116TF-0.018000000000001-8.01849386.213599714943.7810758088290.43840584471218162112124WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024141-14431.87424.83628.355113.365051004570.3397639630.3497639633.934.279763963TF-0.126-8.12649386.2164517700143.7834477537110.43326266625336162112124WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2024141-14433.36825.26829.318113.968672873420.3397639630.4897639633.934.419763963TF1.368-6.63249386.54075621544.0535369973140.50503035964585163112125WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2024141-14432.82825.3429.084113.810918414260.3334647470.4634647473.934.393464747TF0.828-7.17249386.4560483725743.9829177920270.47898642252768162112124WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:08FORECAST2024141-14433.58427.28430.434113.222544511920.2885828330.3585828333.934.288582833TF1.584-6.41649386.1398155497543.7197324539070.5154481490069163112125WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:06FORECAST2024141-14432.10826.00629.057113.292907971460.3444883750.3444883753.934.274488375TF0.108-7.89249386.1776586230343.7511899390110.44441933249353162112124WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:04FORECAST2024141-14433.49426.72630.11109.34100546980.3291340360.3391340364.064.399134036TF1.494-7.50649384.041723107741.9915081469490.51110827642162163112125WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2024141-14432.77426.4229.597109.507424040990.3562994050.3662994054.064.426299405TF0.774-9.22649384.1321025762642.0653170445750.47638512407658162112124WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:04FORECAST2024141-14431.76626.1528.958110.054027033820.3224411190.5024411194.064.562441119TF-0.234-9.23449384.4286859228342.3079249931270.4281307647755162113126WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2024141-14432.03625.68228.859112.140169163780.2948820490.4948820494.064.554882049TF0.036000000000001-8.96449385.5568363754943.2364088534010.44098139607447162113126WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:07FORECAST2024141-14432.16225.84429.003111.576854504210.2212599620.3812599624.14.481259962TF0.162-11.83849385.2527942296942.9852949691050.44700054620057162112124WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:06FORECAST2024141-14431.89225.9728.931111.62544903410.2078741280.3678741284.134.497874128TF-0.108-12.10849385.2790396770543.0069458073770.43411910254011162112124WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024141-14431.35226.04228.697111.73740981090.3011812650.5111812654.144.651181265TF-0.648-16.64849385.3394963083243.0568372153290.40857814740537162113126WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:04FORECAST2024141-14432.03624.83628.436112.185161310080.3523623950.6823623954.084.762362395TF0.036000000000001-13.96449385.5811015766543.2564780784960.44098139607447162113126WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2024141-14433.40426.40229.903111.965473207470.2602363610.6302363614.14.730236361TF1.404-9.59649385.4625929180543.1585016198460.50676708818877163113127.5WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2024141-14432.77427.6830.227114.601964849780.2531497430.5931497434.384.973149743TF0.774-9.22649386.8804672862344.3372617130010.47638512407658162113126WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2024141-14433.06227.24830.155114.399927122890.2570867530.6770867534.324.997086753TF1.062-9.93849386.7721493724744.2467057013750.4902676403347162113126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:08FORECAST2024141-14431.4626.38428.922114.880625367540.3511812920.8111812924.245.051181292TF-0.54-10.5449387.0297735837744.462222425160.41365901599098162113126WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2024141-14430.54225.82628.184112.159753685120.2905513380.7005513384.094.790551338TF-1.458-19.45849385.5673990563943.2451445071770.37101533078957162113126WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024141-14430.68626.09628.391112.698947142770.3177167070.7577167074.144.897716707TF-1.314-19.31449385.8580004213743.4857903941020.37761526502821162113126WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024141-14431.98226.61829.3112.358418498340.4433073260.7733073264.074.843307326TF-0.018000000000001-15.01849385.6745168897543.3337787728430.43840584471218162113126WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:04FORECAST2024141-14433.00827.39230.2114.131967702540.4224411730.9324411734.325.252441173TF1.008-12.99249386.6284032709644.1266604350050.48766326197716162113126WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2024141-14430.54225.64628.094115.95618692290.3669293320.8769293324.745.616929332TF-1.458-14.45849387.6050693212844.9452058704830.37101533078957162113126WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:08FORECAST2024141-14434.03427.51830.776114.92108952590.1039370640.7339370644.735.463937064TF2.034-9.96649387.0514454930844.4803738186410.53710982934862163113127.5WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024141-14434.28627.15830.722106.424794896070.2236221680.6236221683.64.223622168TF2.286-16.71449382.4517561440540.7023497052720.54919659101566163113127.5WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024141-14434.98825.73630.362108.173352151040.1279528250.5679528254.024.587952825TF2.988-16.01249383.4065122967241.4743676716740.58259288885502163113127.5WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2024141-14433.13427.4130.272106.367714083740.1661418220.3861418223.94.286141822TF1.134-10.86649382.4205170591340.67719621830.49374077117577162112124WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024141-14431.53225.59228.562108.856629749010.3216537170.5516537173.884.431653717TF-0.468-19.46849383.7784482826941.7768284503580.41705436531695162113126WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:09FORECAST2024141-14433.11626.79829.957111.770846271550.2893702350.5693702354.545.109370235TF1.116-14.88449385.3575480098843.0717392581930.49287243369238162113126WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2024141-14431.47826.0628.769114.088072228530.4799215190.8399215194.565.399921519TF-0.522-25.52249386.6048463358744.1070016326680.41450725893647162113126WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024141-14433.90826.74430.326118.091763851130.47244121.30244124.485.7824412TF1.908-17.09249388.7426976213345.9073108463520.53105286632111631141210WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024141-14434.01627.44630.731114.376156348520.4342522031.1142522034.015.124252203TF2.016-14.98449386.7594015594844.2360537820270.536245042427131631141210WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2024141-14434.50225.84430.173112.339510414180.0763779940.6763779943.834.506377994TF2.502-21.49849385.6643241906743.3253413637960.55952091531439163113127.5WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:04FORECAST2024141-14431.65826.29428.976112.797315794080.1500000810.4500000813.964.410000081TF-0.342-23.34249385.9109738484443.5297219855830.42301098875615162112124WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:07FORECAST2024141-14432.0925.08828.589110.201334613190.1346457420.3046457423.623.924645742TF0.090000000000003-27.9149384.5085436761142.3733546832820.4435594459178162112124DRYL
2024-02-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024141-14429.62421.14625.385111.414477240760.0763779940.3963779943.684.076377994TF-2.376-34.37649385.1650722997642.9129651816790.32989975894703162112124WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2024141-14431.58621.43426.51108.3754588049700.033.493.52FF-0.414-33.41449383.5165944640841.5637868843640.41960495732568162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 19:00:05FORECAST2024141-14432.922.9127.905109.62621543056003.693.69FF0.9-32.149384.1965930617842.1180184786770.48245619415424162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 15:00:04FORECAST2024141-14433.90823.12628.517109.062380154870.0279527710.0279527713.533.557952771FF1.908-34.09249383.8903202619341.8679920461830.5310528663211163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-10 11:00:05FORECAST2024141-14433.67422.49628.085106.30443616150.0129921330.0129921333.023.032992133FF1.674-36.32649382.3858811370940.6493154903980.51978619238366163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-10 07:00:16FORECAST2024141-14433.33226.4229.876114.602247088900.53.914.41TF1.332-18.66849386.8806185634144.3373882425090.5032935357546163113127.5WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:08FORECAST2024141-14433.87226.31230.092113.8039114932800.43.844.24TF1.872-23.12849386.4522851485843.9797816554250.52932092264666163112125WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2024141-14432.8127.21230.011109.5511237172700.53.23.7TF0.81-13.1949384.1558288927742.0847027377420.47811921809269162113126DRYL
2024-02-09 19:00:04FORECAST2024141-14433.42227.01430.218108.5788621557200.493.063.55TF1.422-5.57849383.6273258669341.6538185344720.50763540641891163112125DRYL
2024-02-09 15:00:04FORECAST2024141-14439.23629.55234.394108.3076621337100.143.533.67TF7.2368.23649383.4796737028141.5337869345490.764949758776164112126DRYL
2024-02-09 11:00:05FORECAST2024141-14439.72225.77232.747108.3040325745400.153.393.54FF7.7229.72249383.4776969354941.532180980510.78263045562274164112126DRYL
2024-02-09 07:00:10FORECAST2024141-14432.91824.7128.814109.8151169614600.263.593.85TF0.918-8.08249384.2991054744342.2018512158590.48332385502754162112124DRYL
2024-02-09 03:00:09FORECAST2024141-14438.58828.43633.512111.300658787020.3279529331.2179529332.653.867952933TF6.5884.58849385.1035619811642.8622801497330.740190300915031641141212DRYL
2024-02-08 23:00:04FORECAST2024141-14431.06428.07629.57110.650552803680.3220474181.1920474182.13.292047418TF-0.936-7.93649384.7518875029842.5730090444650.39510625735576162114128DRYL
2024-02-08 19:00:05FORECAST2024141-14433.00829.22831.11899.410508955037001.791.79FF1.0086.00849378.578870777337.6347182235940.48766326197716162111122DRYL
2024-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2024141-14431.17229.60630.38999.458917524648001.761.76FF-0.8281.17249378.6058363557237.6557266524540.40014447374842162111122DRYL
2024-02-08 11:00:06FORECAST2024141-14431.1925.48428.33799.691778473739001.711.71FF-0.81-11.8149378.7355032246837.7568158876150.40098581898748162111122DRYL
2024-02-08 07:00:08FORECAST2024141-14429.69624.76427.2399.75649688553001.871.87FF-2.304-1.30449378.7715275681837.7849207101830.333058945638162111122DRYL
2024-02-08 03:00:09FORECAST2024141-14429.73228.83229.28299.619108353647001.951.95FF-2.2683.73249378.6950456467637.7252627852740.33464300779636162111122DRYL