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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 14, 2024

[ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 15, 2024 ]

DAY 137 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/15/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.189
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 67

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 108 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 379.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-15 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024137-14825.1999616.9100621.05501107.680230833330.269999999999981.224.315.53TF-6.8000467.1999645379.8483621314 40.9021593159730.1893853002112416 1114126WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024137-14825.1999616.9100621.05501107.680230833330.269999999999981.224.315.53TF-6.8000467.1999645379.8483621314 40.9021593159730.1893853002112416 1114126WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:01FORECAST2024137-14823.03616.93419.985108.54978575550.3248033251.2748033254.315.584803325TF-8.96465.03645380.329434673241.2846786502880.1336117433553161114126WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2024137-14823.7217.49220.606108.11939111230.3133859961.2633859964.315.573385996TF-8.2865.7245380.0914559546241.09525678480.1498725016446161114126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:06FORECAST2024137-14823.64818.01420.831107.888684839970.2547245471.2047245474.315.514724547TF-8.35265.64845379.9637840657140.9937929496680.14810137431588161114126WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:01FORECAST2024137-14823.91816.77220.345106.656669533830.3377954581.2777954584.315.587795458TF-8.08257.91845379.2807239520440.4528188351030.15481547123622161114126WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:01FORECAST2024137-14823.32416.84420.084106.752077244540.3452757771.2852757774.315.595275777TF-8.67657.32445379.3336967633840.4946600983430.14030468406935161114126WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:01FORECAST2024137-14823.66616.98820.327106.503226996330.2929135441.2329135444.315.542913544TF-8.33457.66645379.1955017846840.3855446025620.14854284111594161114126WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024137-14824.24218.10421.173106.312627170880.2606300621.2006300624.315.510630062TF-7.75858.24245379.0895961515240.3020109000150.16313309380946161114126WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2024137-14824.92618.01421.47106.610532728090.3401576641.2801576644.315.590157664TF-7.07458.92645379.2551030073640.4325885714610.18162536488166161114126WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:06FORECAST2024137-14824.02618.06821.047106.539378156110.3271655311.2671655314.315.577165531TF-7.97458.02645379.2155831726940.4013924183240.15755640253232161114126WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:02FORECAST2024137-14823.55818.2320.894100.504430613110.2826773180.7026773184.315.012677318TF-8.44254.55845375.8375967138437.7733436607240.1459071842816161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2024137-14823.77417.97820.876100.927052607860.3685041360.7885041364.315.098504136TF-8.22654.77445376.0758438943937.9562264812750.15121005495018161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2024137-14824.40419.25621.83100.819321981650.3507875910.7707875914.315.080787591TF-7.59656.40445376.0151365605937.9095911228760.16739856059616161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2024137-14823.43219.29221.362102.620435958210.3992128140.8192128144.315.129212814TF-8.56854.43245377.0279035949538.6907678353220.14287209126284161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:07FORECAST2024137-14823.77419.00421.389103.015812199690.4779530140.9179530144.315.227953014TF-8.22656.77445377.2496043057138.8626743895640.15121005495018161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024137-14824.69218.5921.641102.925138153460.4913388480.8913388484.315.201338848TF-7.30856.69245377.1987800021938.8232365430410.17515691571388161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2024137-14825.6119.18422.397103.584165377370.4236222760.7836222764.295.073622276TF-6.3954.6145377.5679091732739.1100567449920.2013734905397161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2024137-14825.64619.05822.352103.606513949250.3968506080.7868506084.295.076850608TF-6.35453.64645377.5804160515239.1197906426040.20244725081733161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2024137-14825.05217.3321.191103.251282524290.3007875640.7107875644.295.000787564TF-6.94853.05245377.3815346639138.9651274550330.18516935234903161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2024137-14824.0817.04220.561105.256146256640.3027560690.7227560694.295.012756069TF-7.9252.0845378.5016383238639.8396238017940.15893872187753161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024137-14824.27817.43820.858104.103115744950.1858268720.5758268724.254.825826872TF-7.72252.27845377.8581450519739.3362102095190.16407483307192161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:06FORECAST2024137-14824.1716.32220.246104.529262644260.1744095430.6044095434.324.924409543TF-7.8352.1745378.0961923876239.5221161988810.1612601488215161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2024137-14825.82617.61821.722106.915271275530.15748040.71748044.55.2174804TF-6.17452.82645379.4242765276440.5662494534740.20786708929741161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024137-14824.817.43821.119107.425753537110.2385828060.7885828064.485.268582806TF-7.249.845379.7073740251540.7903507782480.17812403189158161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2024137-14824.7115.81820.264107.371313043320.2330709920.7730709924.465.233070992TF-7.2945.7145379.677200512740.7664395516620.17564925126305161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:04FORECAST2024137-14827.2316.98822.109106.233897380610.2614174640.7114174644.244.951417464TF-4.7749.2345379.0458354572740.2675163865170.25298193326288162113126WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:14FORECAST2024137-14830.05621.34425.7108.320116693570.7523626110.8923626114.455.342362611TF-1.94456.05645380.2024758072641.1835765466270.35723257216119162113126WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:07FORECAST2024137-14826.61820.53423.576108.294671873950.7330712620.8630712624.425.283071262TF-5.38250.61845380.1884055960341.1723786343020.23270920892804161113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:05FORECAST2024137-14829.7522.22625.988103.43955939610.5610239250.63102392544.631023925TF-2.2555.7545377.4869665100739.0470854935730.34521590161578162113126WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024137-14830.84823.75627.302102.832323947850.578740470.588740473.924.50874047TF-1.15259.84845377.1467439793738.7828761527650.3889719673639162113126WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024137-14831.17223.57627.374103.818827252570.8401579340.9901579343.714.700157934TF-0.82859.17245377.6991970385739.2122876907810.40218688381239162114128WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2024137-14831.9123.5427.725103.181343542720.7531500130.7531500133.724.473150013TF-0.0960.9145377.3423571784938.9346913892530.43268475739612162113126WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:09FORECAST2024137-14831.83822.24427.041103.622492761210.885827250.895827253.714.60582725TF-0.16251.83845377.5893578008839.126750495430.42968853078988162113126WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:07FORECAST2024137-14833.9825.48429.732101.549069943170.3751970530.5851970533.584.165197053TF1.9856.9845376.4260325008938.2257135028640.51979976543394163113127.5WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024137-14832.84625.68229.26499.9150058783890.3759844550.5159844553.193.705984455TF0.84653.84645375.5048894757237.5185732393310.47192603200705162113126DRYL
2024-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024137-14835.3327.2331.2899.6185265550370.4543309540.5743309543.153.724330954TF3.3359.3345375.3373500984637.3905537778810.57636534484899163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2024137-14834.75427.80631.2899.5285916978460.4200789670.5900789673.093.680078967TF2.75457.75445375.2865032951637.3517371561760.55235383861243163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 11:00:05FORECAST2024137-14830.6524.5327.5999.7859472737390.3921261960.5321261963.113.642126196TF-1.3547.6545375.4319744385637.4628352062020.38095789371724162113126DRYL
2024-02-08 07:00:07FORECAST2024137-14831.6425.71828.67999.5072283832890.3921261960.4921261963.233.722126196TF-0.3655.6445375.2744233315437.3425177488590.42147026445767162113126DRYL
2024-02-08 03:00:07FORECAST2024137-14830.03824.94427.49199.859547809990.23622060.42622063.373.7962206TF-1.96252.03845375.4735599169237.4946199079110.35652163731088162112124DRYL
2024-02-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024137-14833.36824.63829.00399.9295897696380.3755907540.6155907543.353.965590754TF1.36850.36845375.5131275238537.5248727865720.49395459718028162113126DRYL
2024-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024137-14833.4425.84429.642101.371444898020.5480317920.9380317923.264.198031792TF1.4453.4445376.3260880751138.1487193009930.49699598654662162113126WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:04FORECAST2024137-14834.32227.60830.965101.759967404220.5645672341.0745672343.254.324567234TF2.32257.32245376.5446398057838.3171702728690.534213417690411631141210WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024137-14831.83826.16829.00399.0244196099880.204724520.604724523.193.79472452TF-0.16254.83845375.0012424830537.1342803899080.42968853078988162113126DRYL
2024-02-07 07:00:06FORECAST2024137-14832.30625.19628.751102.849969917020.7901579071.2301579073.154.380157907TF0.30655.30645377.1566380867238.7905488812230.44922870951971162114128WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:08FORECAST2024137-14831.92825.91628.922103.105029676750.9255910511.2755910513.174.445591051TF-0.07199999999999960.92845377.2996007544938.9014865328180.43343442613505162114128WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:05FORECAST2024137-14832.16224.09828.1397.9852553512440.9102367121.0602367123.014.070236712TF0.16266.16245374.4121291572636.6868680820770.44320095229938162114128WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:04FORECAST2024137-14834.2526.36630.30897.9190545406750.9389768851.0889768853.014.098976885TF2.2563.2545374.3745464989536.6584016372710.531182054487791631141210WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2024137-14834.5224.94429.73291.935221397907003.063.06FF2.5261.5245370.9512480490934.1034851172230.54253891254808163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-06 11:00:05FORECAST2024137-14834.64623.57629.11191.927221504360033FF2.64661.64645370.9466364649634.1000936166120.54782748481883163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-06 07:00:08FORECAST2024137-14834.75424.67429.71491.883895767127002.992.99FF2.75458.75445370.9216594693134.0817270964480.55235383861243163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-06 03:00:06FORECAST2024137-14831.1922.96427.07792.3990010991420.0956693430.1156693432.872.985669343FF-0.8149.1945371.2184363741234.3002127105540.40292448682009162112124DRYL
2024-02-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024137-14834.21423.79229.00390.81811864027800.142.692.83FF2.21454.21445370.306379899433.6305287429560.52966568364681163112125DRYL
2024-02-05 19:00:04FORECAST2024137-14832.14421.9227.03291.95971065525200.222.783FF0.14449.14445370.9653644382834.1138675768640.44244837668144162112124DRYL
2024-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024137-14835.18621.4728.32893.4319363314100.263.033.29FF3.18646.18645371.8123911958834.7391516614420.57038539964947163112125DRYL
2024-02-05 11:00:06FORECAST2024137-14831.5523.48627.518102.52531373120.3586616110.8486616113.74.548661611TF-0.4544.5545376.974532139638.6494321762860.41774574148786162113126WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:09FORECAST2024137-14829.91219.50824.7192.3693518621640.0122047310.0122047312.892.902204731FF-2.08848.91245371.2013645553934.2876294543320.35155916008355162111122DRYL
2024-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024137-14829.91219.56224.73792.153255608730.0122047310.0122047312.852.862204731FF-2.08854.91245371.0768990364434.19594432740.35155916008355162111122DRYL
2024-02-04 23:00:05FORECAST2024137-14830.3824.47627.42891.8146250733060.0303149770.0303149772.752.780314977FF-1.6257.3845370.8817196700434.0523660380480.37011197812709162111122DRYL
2024-02-04 19:00:06FORECAST2024137-14830.57826.85228.71590.9463352470160.0480315220.0480315222.62.648031522FF-1.42263.57845370.3804882867833.6847480566830.37805609457303162111122DRYL
2024-02-04 15:00:04FORECAST2024137-14828.1324.22426.17790.9714565999940.0480315220.0480315222.52.548031522FF-3.8747.1345370.3950054424433.6953731624620.28439942314433162111122DRYL
2024-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024137-14824.06220.44422.25391.309847959075002.682.68FF-7.93846.06245370.5904651699633.8385590297520.15847707067592161111121.5DRYL
2024-02-04 07:00:09FORECAST2024137-14827.71626.00626.86191.629836843678002.832.83FF-4.28458.71645370.7751408824433.974065664750.26971837076279162111122DRYL
2024-02-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024137-14827.7727.44627.60894.068611412636003.163.16FF-4.2346.7745372.1777143648435.0102407890290.271611590534162111122DRYL