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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 30, 2024

[ Monday, January 29, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 31, 2024 ]

DAY 122 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/31/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.919
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 55

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 92 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 32.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -163

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-31 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024122-16345.4139.2599442.3349791.5418116666670.289999999999961.0310.1111.14TT13.4155.4130357.39918209803 32.7169686174390.9192738597279316 51141214WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024122-16345.4139.2599442.3349791.5418116666670.289999999999961.0310.1111.14TT13.4155.4130357.39918209803 32.7169686174390.9192738597279316 51141214WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:01FORECAST2024122-16337.9434.05235.99691.5378409378040.1173228980.85732289810.1110.967322898TT5.9447.9430357.3967564784132.7153274462080.71226082979466164113129WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2024122-16338.37234.41236.39291.840909850.2240158690.96401586910.1111.074015869TT6.37248.37230357.581823440732.8406400106160.72859023696807164113129WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:05FORECAST2024122-16339.95634.80837.38291.724797850.2740158961.01401589610.1111.124015896TT7.95649.95630357.5109372749232.7926184507060.784242571829521641141212WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:01FORECAST2024122-16340.69436.17638.43595.22578880.4149608541.15496085410.1111.264960854TT8.69442.69430359.6391246097234.2469193243020.807732406380881641141212WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:01FORECAST2024122-16340.26234.84437.55395.31690720.2976379561.03763795610.1111.147637956TT8.26242.26230359.6942615013834.2849445438990.794177488820021641141212WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2024122-16339.79435.40237.59895.2782360.2618111651.00181116510.1111.111811165TT7.79441.79430359.6708626297634.2688053319620.778872520305421641141212WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2024122-16341.30636.64438.97593.89148480.0653543660.80535436610.1110.915354366TT9.30643.30630358.8302571092833.6911056311560.82597627697076164113129WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:07FORECAST2024122-16341.97236.539.23694.0325029166670.0129921330.75299213310.1110.862992133TT9.97242.97230358.9158732139533.7497578948280.84453683801034164113129WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:06FORECAST2024122-16341.68435.74438.71494.1599309166670.0173228440.75732284410.1110.867322844TT9.68441.68430358.993212001333.8027760415950.83667667128601164113129WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2024122-16341.12634.91638.02199.0708680.1425197621.17251976210.1111.282519762TT9.12636.12630361.9547734276735.8591735802230.820728054357361641141212WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:02FORECAST2024122-16341.79235.56438.67898.94432560.1370079481.14700794810.1111.257007948TT9.79237.79230361.8789242675935.805866110510.839653901929331641141212WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024122-16342.74637.63440.1998.6157680.1476378751.17763787510.1111.287637875TT10.74639.74630361.6818738999735.6675357663250.864408379066161651141214WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2024122-16341.73835.52838.63398.3215520.3492127871.35921278710.1111.469212787TT9.73836.73830361.5052800765935.5437601933250.838169736239771641141212WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:06FORECAST2024122-16341.01835.31238.16598.4360530166670.346456881.3564568810.1111.46645688TT9.01835.01830361.5740213668435.5919195367160.817531961189391641141212WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2024122-16339.9234.48437.20298.4516002166670.3913387941.46133879410.1111.571338794TT7.9233.9230361.5833536690135.5984597804230.783055791290471641141212WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2024122-16339.59635.92437.76107.39210480.2901576371.38015763710.7812.160157637TT7.59630.59630366.8893656010739.4010212006360.772206626796851641141212WETL
2024-01-27 19:00:47FORECAST2024122-16339.14635.63637.391107.298920.3645671261.52456712610.7812.304567126TT7.14631.14630366.8346813631439.3609651288090.756644928573891641151215WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2024122-16338.35434.1636.257107.9916108810.2618111651.34181116510.7812.121811165TT6.35427.35430367.2408683000339.6589329490590.727919158518431641141212WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2024122-16339.54234.19636.869106.855879294140.2870080291.14700802910.7811.927008029TT7.54230.54230366.5745117947939.1706417846530.770369255770811641141212WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2024122-16339.81234.86237.337107.542139763730.2633859691.13338596910.6811.813385969TT7.81233.81230366.9773843957939.4655331628210.779472935971561641141212WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2024122-16339.00234.55636.779106.520997066670.0921260341.17212603410.8712.042126034TT7.00230.00230366.3776624278539.0269139047690.751546697540711641141212WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:03FORECAST2024122-16338.19234.80836.5109.325311313430.4102364421.70023644210.9712.670236442TT6.19223.19230368.0209269576340.2340024095010.721842630272621641151215WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2024122-16338.335.16836.734109.191287975290.2787403081.61874030810.7712.388740308TT6.324.330367.9426583680440.1761327682590.725900992469951641151215WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2024122-16338.7533.85436.302110.006173130140.2452757231.66527572310.6712.335275723TT6.7524.7530368.4181337396740.5282690044490.742489804521121641151215WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:04FORECAST2024122-16339.36235.49237.427108.839137828950.2633859691.99338596910.7112.703385969TT7.36225.36230367.7368783914140.0241647920290.764185218461171641151215WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:06FORECAST2024122-16338.8434.19636.518109.134355118350.5074805892.52748058910.2112.737480589TT6.8423.8430367.9094019572840.1515553245870.745743947741381641151215WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:07FORECAST2024122-16337.2232.8135.015109.509046676060.5633861312.71338613110.1812.893386131TT5.2221.2230368.1281836916840.3133664506640.684060035741311631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2024122-16337.16632.93635.051106.761084526110.6192916732.77929167310.2813.059291673TT5.16621.16630366.5188068359639.1299453170220.681898297984751631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:04FORECAST2024122-16337.2232.8135.015106.95638409740.5633861312.71338613110.313.013386131TT5.2220.2230366.6335575374239.213799602970.684060035741311631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2024122-16339.48833.92636.707106.793898450460.5700790482.2900790489.711.990079048TT7.48822.48830366.5380910457239.1440316733620.768523626554541641151215WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2024122-16341.5434.2537.895109.251388849370.3460631792.1260631799.8812.006063179TT9.5427.5430367.9777601072940.2020813574020.832651673428141641151215WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:09FORECAST2024122-16340.7333.9837.355109.548477110880.5700790482.3000790489.6911.990079048TT8.7324.7330368.1511949460140.3304027528870.808836842453191641151215WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:07FORECAST2024122-16340.7333.9837.355109.548477110880.5700790482.3000790489.6911.990079048TT8.7324.7330368.1511949460140.3304027528870.808836842453191641151215WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2024122-16340.7333.9837.355108.368906455080.5700790482.3000790489.8312.130079048TT8.7323.7330367.4618101559939.8214345306080.808836842453191641151215WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:03FORECAST2024122-16339.48833.92636.707108.371307238930.5700790482.2900790489.8412.130079048TT7.48821.48830367.4632153617139.8224690109680.768523626554541641151215WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:04FORECAST2024122-16341.5434.1637.85111.964932026670.5059057852.2059057859.8312.035905785TT9.5426.5430369.5570273552641.377427447810.832651673428141641151215WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:05FORECAST2024122-16339.97433.63836.806113.081512100470.8035437413.0335437419.5412.573543741TT7.97423.97430370.2037164416541.8631960404350.784834550751951641151215WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:05FORECAST2024122-16340.76634.75437.76112.847789857470.9385831843.1385831849.6212.758583184TT8.76623.76630370.0685033879741.7614127031940.809937388673871641151215WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024122-16339.86637.45438.66114.284654265661.3523629353.5523629359.6213.172362935TT7.86619.86630370.8984898327742.3880056781950.781268577779321641151215WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2024122-16341.30638.44439.875111.28714247190.8559059742.1959059749.9112.105905974TT9.30624.30630369.163576829441.0831595700490.825976276970761641151215WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:03FORECAST2024122-16340.65834.28637.472113.401581241281.1633864552.3133864559.1711.483386455TT8.65818.65830370.3887527432242.0026702350650.806624084800511641151215WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024122-16340.65834.28637.472113.401581241281.1633864552.3133864559.1711.483386455TT8.65818.65830370.3887527432242.0026702350650.806624084800511641151215WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:05FORECAST2024122-16338.89433.15236.023112.871957069841.1598431462.6198431468.6211.239843146TT6.89416.89430370.0824883312341.7719347352230.747686048465851641151215WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:07FORECAST2024122-16339.41633.09836.257119.482695926541.1586620432.6586620438.611.258662043TT7.41616.41630373.8758979823744.6717002328890.766049995131311641151215WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:07FORECAST2024122-16338.8431.9135.375116.407077476160.7622051361.2722051368.59.772205136TT6.8415.8430372.1189520644743.3172796833150.745743947741381641141212WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:04FORECAST2024122-16338.44432.5435.492113.459807813810.5216538251.0016538258.559.551653825TT6.44415.44430370.4223981435142.0280541032920.7312662869311641141212WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2024122-16335.11431.47833.296115.037954271980.5220475261.0220475268.489.502047526TT3.11413.11430371.3324151750842.7173213966160.595766966142681631141210WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:05FORECAST2024122-16337.36433.11635.24113.311933414140.3460631791.1560631798.519.666063179TT5.36415.36430370.3369412865941.9635948318610.689793847020951631141210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:05FORECAST2024122-16338.3934.41236.401116.548294127170.3488190861.0288190868.349.368819086TT6.3916.3930372.1999230122243.3792661013390.729260490748171641141212WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:08FORECAST2024122-16338.44434.48436.464118.044821533210.3251970260.9251970268.449.365197026TT6.44415.44430373.0562210407844.0373550346120.731266286931164113129WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:08FORECAST2024122-16339.32632.55835.942116.462112959420.1838583670.4338583678.458.883858367TT7.32616.32630372.1505118200243.3414349454890.76293750300885164112126WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:05FORECAST2024122-16339.23631.20835.222114.676407591970.0295275750.0295275758.368.389527575TT7.23618.23630371.1242561249542.559196462650.75980242808588164111123WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:05FORECAST2024122-16339.09230.86634.979113.485667917140.0303149770.0303149778.228.250314977TT7.09220.09230370.437339442342.0393288880570.7547397330243164111123WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2024122-16339.77634.57437.175114.646626705050.2251969720.2251969728.148.365196972TT7.77614.77630371.1071013758742.5461773190320.77827117209919164112126WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:05FORECAST2024122-16341.5433.72837.634118.0296431161200.358.819.16TT9.5425.5430373.0475524311444.0306694787890.83265167342814164112126WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:06FORECAST2024122-16340.02833.72836.878122.5350165183700.338.99.23TT8.0289.02830375.6060177826646.0248895933990.78660483115137164112126WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:08FORECAST2024122-16342.00832.7237.364117.882757646970.2311024870.6111024878.278.881102487TT10.00813.00830372.9636467845543.9659831850310.84550155798871164113129WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:04FORECAST2024122-16334.84431.83833.341123.4535144204700.217.848.05TT2.8441.84430376.1240217530846.4338323433780.58397092350202163112125WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:05FORECAST2024122-16333.92631.83832.882121.8825642414900.027.457.47TT1.926-8.07430375.2373203733845.7348868062140.54335814029492163111122.5WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:04FORECAST2024122-16336.30235.61835.96128.297264498850.6251971880.6551971887.638.285197188TT4.302-5.69830378.8358432334348.6036023809630.64650968163145163113127.5WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:04FORECAST2024122-16333.67430.81232.243131.248557835180.3614175180.8614175188.169.021417518TT1.674-2.32630380.4718708760449.9363843493330.53211113324476163113127.5WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:08FORECAST2024122-16333.72830.90232.315124.182970474260.3614175180.8614175187.888.741417518TT1.7284.72830376.5345519247146.7591791442060.53452367460641163113127.5WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:07FORECAST2024122-16333.49433.27833.386124.134128844370.1744095430.3144095438.688.994409543TT1.49410.49430376.5070881240146.7373793880030.52406130327288163112125WETL