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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 29, 2024

[ Sunday, January 28, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 30, 2024 ]

DAY 121 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/30/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.976
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 22

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 92 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 33.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-30 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024121-16455.1400844.1300249.6350592.4259962502.358.5610.91TT23.1400822.1400829357.02511205415 32.9984016678730.9757175324870116 51151217.5WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024121-16455.1400844.1300249.6350592.4259962502.358.5610.91TT23.1400822.1400829357.02511205415 32.9984016678730.9757175324870116 51151217.5WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:01FORECAST2024121-16446.65239.0242.83694.746679202.358.5610.91TT14.65213.65229358.44078098433.9610736880880.886757962214491651151217.5WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:06FORECAST2024121-16446.45439.52442.98994.89743891666702.358.5610.91TT14.45413.45429358.5324594718634.0238121723730.883310937157171651151217.5WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:05FORECAST2024121-16444.90637.65241.27994.99928291666702.358.5610.91TT12.90611.90629358.5943719590434.0662081940620.853797830428051651151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:01FORECAST2024121-16446.32838.42642.37799.77806880.0480315222.6380315228.5611.198031522TT14.3287.32829361.4815336660136.0679293360560.881079130205741651151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:01FORECAST2024121-16447.0339.05643.04399.71086160.0267716682.6167716688.5611.176771668TT15.038.0329361.4411721023236.0396106880360.893136253544721651151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2024121-16447.73239.68643.70999.60537680.0480315222.6380315228.5611.198031522TT15.7328.73229361.3778088712935.9951728197830.904288182409271651151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2024121-16445.89638.31842.10799.0944840.0279527712.6179527718.5611.177952771TT13.8966.89629361.0706824297535.7801129629040.87319970489461651151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:06FORECAST2024121-16445.15837.92241.5499.14856741666702.628.5611.18TT13.1586.15829361.1032138834535.8028663460980.858915456974621651151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2024121-16445.21238.85842.03599.12032661666702.688.5611.24TT13.2126.21229361.086227454335.790984802050.859996136489691651151217.5WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2024121-16445.17638.10241.639108.146045603.378.5611.93TT13.1763.17629366.4535021101439.6304971494830.859276308475511651151217.5WETL
2024-01-27 19:00:36FORECAST2024121-16445.57238.89442.233108.01655120.0165354423.4365354428.5611.996535442TT13.5723.57229366.3773631847339.5748192089640.867057193259791651151217.5WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2024121-16444.27637.4940.883108.19622960.011811033.361811038.5611.92181103TT12.2761.27629366.4830021040339.6520790401440.840465790678951641151215WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2024121-16444.04238.01241.027107.41631120.0500000273.1400000278.5611.700000027TT12.0423.04229366.0241123336339.3169599571330.835317845115761641151215WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2024121-16445.57238.42641.999107.5558682919403.058.5611.61TT13.5725.57229366.1062919758739.3768801206050.867057193259791651151217.5WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2024121-16443.737.25640.478107.177620266670.2409450123.4509450128.5612.010945012TT11.72.729365.8834891627939.2145216633320.827603028240351641151215WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:03FORECAST2024121-16443.21437.56240.388109.69360240.2771655043.8871655048.4312.317165504TT11.214-2.78629367.3614849623140.2972046685290.816251085388921641151215WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2024121-16443.5238.340.91109.59077440.3397639633.7397639638.4312.169763963TT11.52-2.4829367.3012643297140.2528299959920.823451711562521641151215WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2024121-16443.98836.55440.271109.75461040.4043309273.7243309278.4312.154330927TT11.988-2.01229367.3972065165940.3235372632770.834114779247021641151215WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:04FORECAST2024121-16443.41237.79640.604109.531381828950.5681105434.0681105438.4312.498110543TT11.412-1.58829367.2664742420540.2272044231780.820930903441391641151215WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:06FORECAST2024121-16441.79236.15838.975109.761950318350.6688979993.8088979998.4812.288897999TT9.792-3.20829367.4015038306140.3267056103440.780452524608311641151215WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:07FORECAST2024121-16440.83834.6137.724109.85009453920.8137799674.0037799678.3912.393779967TT8.838-4.16229367.4531035144540.3647581597850.754347005440651641151215WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2024121-1644134.82637.913107.208607726110.8007878344.0607878348.4412.500787834TT9-429365.9017500337739.2278171856680.758894082115811641151215WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2024121-16440.83834.6137.724107.290701749730.8137799674.0037799678.5112.513779967TT8.838-5.16229365.950120991839.263045286610.754347005440651641151215WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2024121-1644134.44837.724107.464592850460.6255908893.1855908898.2911.475590889TT9-529366.0525467804739.3376879016380.758894082115811641151215WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2024121-16441.5435.65438.597109.885968551760.5208664233.2908664238.4311.720866423TT9.54-2.4629367.4741008771440.3802474925730.77371563337661641151215WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:08FORECAST2024121-16441.0934.71837.904110.292774710880.6267719923.2067719928.2711.476771992TT9.09-3.9129367.7120741430140.5559849519270.761400356244781641151215WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:07FORECAST2024121-16441.0934.71837.904110.292774710880.6267719923.2067719928.2711.476771992TT9.09-3.9129367.7120741430140.5559849519270.761400356244781641151215WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2024121-16441.0934.71837.904109.113204055080.6267719923.2067719928.4111.616771992TT9.09-4.9129367.0213717261140.0468778257260.761400356244781641151215WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2024121-1644134.44837.724109.042001638930.6255908893.1855908898.4311.615590889TT9-629366.97961259540.0161915180370.758894082115811641151215WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.43233.96237.697112.410013702490.6118113543.1418113548.4511.591811354TT9.432-2.56829368.9466531602441.4732983372310.770793088923611641151215WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.01834.26837.643113.531596489660.9720477693.5220477698.3111.832047769TT9.018-3.98229369.5979719122241.9610478105340.759396477333161641151215WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:05FORECAST2024121-16441.37834.9738.174112.923640919930.9519690183.5519690188.3311.881969018TT9.378-4.62229369.2451539468441.6965071757190.769323929846011641151215WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:06FORECAST2024121-16441.05437.00439.029114.947995190271.1818904023.6018904028.2811.881890402TT9.054-7.94629370.4178476215442.5787889667930.760399558483011641151215WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2024121-16442.60237.70640.154112.28895287190.4125986482.7325986488.5811.312598648TT10.602-5.39829368.8762404378941.4207267780940.801311695850531641151215WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:03FORECAST2024121-16441.86438.22840.046114.150602041280.4385829141.9485829148.4310.378582914TT9.864-10.13629369.956643239542.2307735549590.782356016464191641151215WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.86438.22840.046114.150602041280.4385829141.9485829148.4310.378582914TT9.864-10.13629369.956643239542.2307735549590.782356016464191641151215WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:05FORECAST2024121-16440.85637.56239.209113.291239469840.5149609082.1349609088.0110.144960908TT8.856-10.14429369.4585494098341.856416995370.754854496509541641151215WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:06FORECAST2024121-1644137.56239.281114.980426321690.5141735062.1841735067.9810.164173506TT9-1129370.4365857088442.5929565499530.758894082115811641151215WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:06FORECAST2024121-16441.64837.65239.65113.923766694850.0728346851.0128346858.069.072834685TT9.648-11.35229369.8252731477742.1318881359460.776617046016761641141212WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.59436.8639.227113.345938054160.1149606921.0649606928.039.094960692TT9.594-11.40629369.4902855819741.8802230211870.775168988538881641141212WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2024121-16442.76435.47439.119114.6721938940.1149606921.0949606927.959.044960692TT10.764-10.23629370.2584325139442.4583467641270.805335678187751641141212WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:05FORECAST2024121-16443.62835.76239.695113.738694214140.232283591.422283597.969.38228359TT11.628-10.37229369.7180336410242.0512463737470.825950012916611641141212WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:05FORECAST2024121-16443.89836.66240.28117.102089327170.1598426061.1498426067.939.079842606TT11.898-10.10229371.6590944920643.5220564824660.832097111197781641141212WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:08FORECAST2024121-16440.96435.07838.021117.049812408130.1429134631.0429134638.069.102913463TT8.964-11.03629371.6290514666543.4991107595830.757887585684841641141212WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:07FORECAST2024121-16441.28835.76238.525115.9596975251700.947.828.76TT9.288-10.71229371.0016635082143.0212406817470.76686370085053164113129WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:05FORECAST2024121-16441.3636.26638.813114.9997018275300.727.78.42TT9.36-8.6429370.4477219960542.6013775722350.76883304554144164113129WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.37836.26638.822113.7942323357500.687.68.28TT9.378-6.62229369.7502202771442.0754424724110.76932392984601164113129WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2024121-16440.56835.54638.057114.6891681361900.647.568.2TT8.568-13.43229370.2682469718442.4657572324470.74666749912175164113129WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:05FORECAST2024121-16443.82637.72440.775118.800016716120.0212598541.6812598547.549.221259854TT11.826-4.17429372.6327107084444.2687722611360.830471679464951641151215WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:05FORECAST2024121-16442.31436.89639.605123.187014918370.0204724521.7404724527.559.290472452TT10.314-18.68629375.1289251224246.211012495370.79403552810771641151215WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:07FORECAST2024121-16442.83637.09439.965117.523269084610.0224409571.3924409577.328.712440957TT10.836-17.16429371.900996823743.7070209225460.807108118038611641141212WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:04FORECAST2024121-16442.2634.86238.561123.5202296204700.977.148.11TT10.26-20.7429375.3173910729246.3592903258810.79265389608287164113129WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.39634.35837.877121.9258602414900.277.267.53TT9.396-29.60429374.4141710272645.6507698891050.76981423223054164112126WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.66636.4139.038123.9489922225100.327.47.72TT9.666-30.33429375.5596642746846.5502419062690.77709855208959164112126WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:04FORECAST2024121-16441.82835.25838.543128.472894301090.5007876721.7107876727.018.720787672TT9.828-24.17229378.0998904255348.5755872578910.781405461145471641151215WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:07FORECAST2024121-16442.5335.36638.948121.413478834620.496063261.626063266.818.43606326TT10.53-17.4729374.1231263204545.4235902790510.799507308960881641151215WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:07FORECAST2024121-16442.22432.07237.148122.72044512250.1358268451.6158268457.268.875826845TT10.224-10.77629374.8647654596846.0035708779530.791729777493261641151215WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:05FORECAST2024121-16434.44833.11633.782123.8413957394301.047.558.59TT2.448-27.55229375.4988914536546.502306816230.546065746975291631141210WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:05FORECAST2024121-16435.43833.24234.34129.6426511124501.047.368.4TT3.438-27.56229378.7519873916249.102411759560.580987887470111631141210WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:04FORECAST2024121-16435.29431.85633.575120.4978697662301.396.988.37TT3.294-21.70629373.6020946649545.0182565473280.575941066811621631141210WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:06FORECAST2024121-16431.87430.09230.983125.3129099828500.957.728.67TT-0.126-27.12629376.3285965690747.1588315458330.45427154419163162113126WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:07FORECAST2024121-16436.28434.30435.294122.5667443696900.937.498.42TT4.284-9.71629374.7776755248745.9352795515240.61034354007962163113127.5WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:08FORECAST2024121-16438.5738.49838.534133.6823530225602.148.4910.63TT6.57-17.4329380.9891335794150.9315238529210.686169358720491631151212.5WETL