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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 3, 2024

[ Tuesday, January 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 4, 2024 ]

DAY 95 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/04/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.486
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 120

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.54 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 3
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 309.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -190

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-04 07:00:04OBSERVATION202495-19031.2400427.3399829.2900160.6822933333330.339999999999920.669999999999923.874.5399999999999TF-0.75996120.240043309.68501800017 18.7923971032250.485783961716216 2113126WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:06OBSERVATION202495-19031.2400427.3399829.2900160.6822933333330.339999999999920.669999999999923.874.5399999999999TF-0.75996120.240043309.68501800017 18.7923971032250.485783961716216 2113126WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:01FORECAST202495-19028.4923.77426.13259.9701765065730.2649607730.5949607733.874.464960773TF-3.51117.493309.163229687618.5405734537070.35064075937094162113126WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202495-19029.1224.40426.76259.6810333627610.2452757230.5752757233.874.445275723TF-2.88118.123308.9510967053518.4385207099330.38060982470836162113126WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST202495-19028.70624.63826.67259.956235152260.3118111920.6418111923.874.511811192TF-3.294117.7063309.1530050372618.5356502680420.3608224313899162113126WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202495-19029.04824.49426.77159.5247412775760.4031498240.8231498243.874.693149824TF-2.952111.0483308.8363664503518.3834048100640.37714435388564162113126WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202495-19030.50624.31427.4159.3940407324480.3775592590.7975592593.874.667559259TF-1.494112.5063308.7403873525118.3373391421670.44887032307166162113126WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:01FORECAST202495-19030.63225.2527.94158.7852324381810.2094489320.6294489323.874.499448932TF-1.368112.6323308.2928928077418.1230693627420.45518419455815162113126WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202495-19028.97624.90826.94260.2423337637210.2066930250.6266930253.874.496693025TF-3.024110.9763309.3627585054818.6367345519530.37368874638351162113126WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:07FORECAST202495-19030.75826.70828.73360.0557810621650.1956693970.5956693973.874.465669397TF-1.242112.7583309.2260045071918.5708092254120.46150940670065162113126WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST202495-19029.67825.01627.34760.1890992149890.1322835360.6222835363.874.492283536TF-2.322110.6783309.3237410870618.617917341840.40777258481505162113126WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202495-19030.12825.14227.63559.7969063099160.0279527710.4979527713.874.367952771TF-1.872108.1283309.0361268487618.4794043235540.43001251163017162113126WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:01FORECAST202495-19030.00224.90827.45559.47597610394400.413.874.28TF-1.998109.0023308.800559787618.3662147148120.42375970779574162112124WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:01FORECAST202495-19030.27225.64627.95960.6133701982320.2212599620.7012599623.874.571259962TF-1.728108.2723309.634557295818.7679940475360.43718003478633162113126WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:03FORECAST202495-19030.6525.5228.08560.3350800687930.1744095430.6544095433.874.524409543TF-1.35110.653309.4307228378818.6695274381680.45608713895456162113126WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:06FORECAST202495-19031.65826.9629.30960.083187956120.1082677750.4982677753.874.368267775TF-0.342111.6583309.2460994180118.5804915160290.50687756435491163113127.5WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST202495-19032.70227.48230.09258.91774545107900.163.874.03TF0.702113.7023308.3903532492918.169664332310.55935418371686163112125WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202495-19031.80226.16828.98558.32385982179500.093.833.92TF-0.198107.8023307.9533072252617.9610255222640.51414348647563163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 19:00:01FORECAST202495-19032.95427.53630.24558.32658133961800.093.833.92TF0.954109.9543307.9553115198617.9619805263310.57190108521945163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202495-19032.48623.3627.92357.9890776003.833.83TF0.486108.4863307.7066471118517.8436246374050.5485515682887163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST202495-19031.7326.0628.89558.08623482914400.033.833.86TF-0.27107.733307.7782520066717.8776798213630.5105109614455163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 07:00:06FORECAST202495-19031.78424.96228.37358.2449655003.833.83TF-0.216108.7843307.8951985280917.9333452158840.51323545344768163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 03:00:07FORECAST202495-19032.10826.04229.07558.2544119003.833.83TF0.108106.1083307.9021567780617.9366590658470.52956499559893163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202495-19032.21625.2528.73358.9976384003.683.68FF0.216103.2163308.4490969284518.1977682853910.53499850504964163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202495-19033.13426.99630.06558.9514888003.683.68FF1.134107.1343308.4151655095418.1815331752860.58081962484101163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202495-19032.4525.21428.83258.9929152003.683.68FF0.45103.453308.4456243859718.1961065632130.54674741008448163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST202495-19032.12624.5328.32859.998577387313003.683.68FF0.126103.1263309.1840578979318.5506036247120.53047099040129163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 07:00:05FORECAST202495-19031.4623.9927.72560.223021515534003.653.65FF-0.54104.463309.3486045091818.6299076651570.49688368670748162111122DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:05FORECAST202495-19031.29824.49427.89660.462400213462003.723.72FF-0.702102.2983309.5239967482518.7145637670630.48870804953478162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202495-19032.7226.36629.54361.30003024617800.053.713.76TF0.7299.723310.1368876284219.0114005920780.56025252450487163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST202495-19031.2826.40228.84161.39794793518600.183.623.8TF-0.72101.283310.2084485603819.0461621737650.48779987538643162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST202495-19031.2826.40228.84161.39794793518600.183.623.8TF-0.72101.283310.2084485603819.0461621737650.48779987538643162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202495-19031.29824.11627.70760.120361341743003.573.57FF-0.702101.2983309.2733529479518.5936257326030.48870804953478162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:05FORECAST202495-19032.55825.46629.01259.929865073297003.563.56FF0.558105.5583309.1336641156518.5263387800650.5521568411258163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:05FORECAST202495-19030.32624.15227.23959.705095965983003.443.44FF-1.67499.3263308.9687564372118.4470092535740.43987331142702162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202495-19029.40823.4526.42959.76964145382003.443.44FF-2.59294.4083309.0161215429418.4697827880720.39456510738215162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202495-19028.6722.80225.73659.91528586681003.513.51FF-3.3393.673309.122970558218.5211911489920.35911839210013162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202495-19029.01221.54225.27760.167398232507003.523.52FF-2.98892.0123309.3078341822818.6102476356790.3754153010645162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202495-19027.62622.83825.23264.5441073074210.6232286830.6632286833.54.163228683TF-4.37490.6263312.4983006064520.1699238477290.31103731630444162113126WETL
2023-12-28 07:00:10FORECAST202495-19028.9424.04426.49262.8502826343020.4870081370.5270081373.453.977008137TF-3.0697.943311.2677675161919.5632671633410.3719647219643162113126DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:06FORECAST202495-19028.6723.32425.99760.358243582207003.533.53FF-3.3393.673309.4476945220218.6777193219120.35911839210013162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:04FORECAST202495-19029.9324.7127.3260.388841571964003.673.67FF-2.0788.933309.4701118450318.6885415554670.42019517043603162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202495-19029.8423.16226.50160.335066344217003.643.64FF-2.1685.843309.4307127817218.6695225846240.41574871844333162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202495-19032.03623.34227.68959.787449173479003.553.55FF0.03600000000000194.0363309.0291879297618.4760668664720.52593953253061163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST202495-19031.08225.41228.24760.227771902176003.523.52FF-0.918102.0823309.3520861441418.6315868817510.47781516943025162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:05FORECAST202495-19030.4723.2726.8760.483490230098003.483.48FF-1.5387.473309.5394442454518.722025951850.4470686642461162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:09FORECAST202495-19029.71424.22426.96961.2896251482750.0582677480.0582677483.63.658267748FF-2.28688.7143310.1292822513919.0077074566910.40954188305535162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:04FORECAST202495-19030.57825.71828.14864.9343039068850.2921261420.2921261423.533.822126142TF-1.42289.5783312.7810219232120.3102179338680.45247676858732162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:04FORECAST202495-19031.08225.73628.40965.146922552660.2295276830.2595276833.713.969527683TF-0.91890.0823312.9349592443920.3867495539140.47781516943025162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:04FORECAST202495-19030.2925.62827.95963.8708282215090.1295276290.1895276293.383.569527629FF-1.7182.293312.0098093459719.9283249361620.43807747662622162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:05FORECAST202495-19032.95427.78830.37163.92284543770800.073.593.66FF0.95494.9543312.0475797288519.9469692082180.57190108521945163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:06FORECAST202495-19033.83628.61631.22663.44892661815200.053.563.61FF1.83693.8363311.7032766047119.777238323930.61516681519425163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:09FORECAST202495-19034.32225.71830.0263.698646137534003.673.67FF2.32290.3223311.8847500723119.8666363305490.63844406189452163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:04FORECAST202495-19041.925.95233.92667.513181255512003.513.51FF9.9101.93314.6425471083821.2425193136240.90551978891179165111123.5DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:04FORECAST202495-19037.81427.75232.78366.910813275498003.353.35FF5.814103.8143314.2088273360921.0239681753980.78703656549143164111123DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202495-19035.1526.09630.62366.111610365774003.133.13FF3.1597.153313.63235632420.7347401393920.676907341287163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST202495-19033.83627.1430.48870.142615227657003.253.25FF1.83695.8363316.528052871822.2021054213460.61516681519425163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:06FORECAST202495-19035.20426.630.90270.194650818714003.193.19FF3.20496.2043316.5652394574222.2211864450560.67935668813777163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:09FORECAST202495-19030.1114.05422.08273.3236812499580.0295275750.0295275753.83.829527575TF-1.8981.113318.7923522493323.3750288212550.42911814041417162111122DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:04FORECAST202495-19025.66423.57624.6266.905645397436003.113.11FF-6.33675.6643314.2051034649321.0220952344890.22928995992595161111121.5DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST202495-19026.22223.9925.10666.021615987011003.023.02FF-5.77884.2223313.5673693721520.7022244467460.25124676879932162111122DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST202495-19031.29829.04830.17364.269041701805002.692.69FF-0.702100.2983312.2988302870720.0711465471450.48870804953478162111122DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST202495-19031.69430.75831.22666.0479491474730033FF-0.30693.6943313.5863866731920.7117377203310.50869435307608163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:05FORECAST202495-19031.69430.75831.22665.921011403954003.193.19FF-0.30692.6943313.4947029671120.6658878893740.50869435307608163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:07FORECAST202495-19036.12236.06836.09565.351491329902003.093.09FF4.122105.1223313.0829899551920.4604403035970.71973628805426164111123DRYL