MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 28, 2024

[ Saturday, January 27, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, January 29, 2024 ]

DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/29/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.854
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -13

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.74 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 96 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 34.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -165

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-29 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024120-16544.9299440.2842.6049796.1530229166670.740000000000013.647.8311.47TT12.92994-13.0700628358.38620513229 34.4599169951020.8539266500399316 51151217.5WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024120-16544.9299440.2842.6049796.1530229166670.740000000000013.647.8311.47TT12.92994-13.0700628358.38620513229 34.4599169951020.8539266500399316 51151217.5WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.16435.38437.274100.29535760.9838587993.8838587997.8311.713858799TT7.164-18.83628360.8930457079336.195897074630.695907518334041631151212.5WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:05FORECAST2024120-16538.80435.74437.274100.317461016671.0122052713.9122052717.8311.742205271TT6.804-19.19628360.9063515396136.2052088512420.684000108856531631151212.5WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2024120-16539.2935.74437.517100.291483416671.0673234113.9673234117.8311.797323411TT7.29-18.7128360.8907134471436.1942650029130.70002740503771641151215WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.52435.4237.472109.27597281.0897643684.6597643687.8312.489764368TT7.524-22.47628366.2381602423540.0210312369650.70761086444781641151215WETL
2024-01-27 19:00:07FORECAST2024120-16539.97435.61837.796109.22647761.1429140034.7129140037.8312.542914003TT7.974-22.02628366.2090343928739.9997228920310.721938571328731641151215WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:01FORECAST2024120-16539.25435.34837.301109.29457041.0665360094.6365360097.8312.466536009TT7.254-22.74628366.2491032036340.0290383940260.698852870551971631151212.5WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2024120-16540.7336.57238.651108.54879680.8129925654.3829925657.8312.212992565TT8.73-21.2728365.8098791585639.7082222402150.745210967311071641151215WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2024120-16540.87436.42838.651108.766581891940.8708666124.3408666127.8312.170866612TT8.874-20.12628365.9382299066339.8018504505290.749525456957151641151215WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2024120-16540.5535.54638.048108.218495466670.8433075424.5033075427.8312.333307542TT8.55-21.4528365.6150818779339.5663140807510.739763718424991641151215WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2024120-16540.13635.70837.922110.70446561.0070871584.7670871587.8312.597087158TT8.136-25.86428367.0771924276540.6370844216520.727011474579891641151215WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.70435.45637.58110.64660641.0031501484.5631501487.8312.393150148TT7.704-26.29628367.043267668540.6120919694860.713382998731861641151215WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:01FORECAST2024120-16539.70435.13237.418110.71706081.02362264.48362267.8312.3136226TT7.704-26.29628367.0845767484840.6425254026030.713382998731861641151215WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2024120-16540.1935.2437.715110.586033028951.1629927544.6629927547.8312.492992754TT8.19-24.8128367.0077461588740.5859307386050.728692199766751641151215WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:05FORECAST2024120-16539.52435.79837.661110.724203918351.3488196264.3488196267.8312.178819626TT7.524-25.47628367.0887645148840.6456112182820.70761086444781641151215WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:07FORECAST2024120-16539.54235.63637.589110.63296493921.3393708024.3093708027.8312.139370802TT7.542-25.45828367.0352685033340.6061999917780.708190500720351641151215WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.99235.49237.742108.018341326111.3578747494.3078747497.9512.257874749TT7.992-25.00828365.4969601725339.4803753975720.722504488303581641151215WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2024120-16539.54235.63637.589108.073572149731.3393708024.3093708027.9512.259370802TT7.542-26.45828365.5295608464739.5040853670010.708190500720351641151215WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.99236.46438.228108.280328850461.0901580693.4601580697.9511.410158069TT7.992-26.00828365.6515609379439.5928712630440.722504488303581641151215WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2024120-1654136.8638.93110.855503751761.2610243033.8110243037.9511.761024303TT9-2428367.165727591540.7023416925380.753268681653481641151215WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:08FORECAST2024120-16540.76636.80638.786111.122778710881.0976383883.4876383887.9211.407638388TT8.766-25.23428367.3223149463940.8178763193580.746293219700221641151215WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:07FORECAST2024120-16540.76636.80638.786111.122778710881.0976383883.4876383887.9211.407638388TT8.766-25.23428367.3223149463940.8178763193580.746293219700221641151215WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2024120-16540.76636.80638.786109.943208055081.0976383883.4876383888.0611.547638388TT8.766-26.23428366.6304430171640.3085270759610.746293219700221641151215WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.99236.46438.228109.857737638931.0901580693.4601580698.0911.550158069TT7.992-27.00828366.5802301354740.271674745840.722504488303581641151215WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:03FORECAST2024120-16540.51436.84238.678112.567438916431.0917328733.4617328738.0811.541732873TT8.514-24.48628368.1668547768941.443599936150.738667121151331641151215WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:04FORECAST2024120-16540.38836.73438.561114.357172489661.2625991073.3025991078.1211.422599107TT8.388-24.61228369.2088338561542.2216782979930.73481045083361641151215WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:05FORECAST2024120-16540.04635.9638.003113.721468119931.2456699643.3456699648.1411.485669964TT8.046-25.95428368.839270438441.944943334540.724198857999511641151215WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:06FORECAST2024120-16538.94835.94237.445115.574279676221.0177170853.1877170858.0711.257717085TT6.948-29.05228369.9147299928742.7526284605480.688786921231361631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2024120-16539.05636.62637.841113.31949607190.9303154633.1003154638.3611.460315463TT7.056-27.94428368.6052779376141.7701643453320.692356270001931631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:03FORECAST2024120-16538.76835.83437.301115.195905241280.7129925112.4729925118.0310.502992511TT6.768-32.23228369.6955146227742.587409470610.682798531863751631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:03FORECAST2024120-16538.76835.83437.301115.195905241280.7129925112.4729925118.0310.502992511TT6.768-32.23228369.6955146227742.587409470610.682798531863751631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:04FORECAST2024120-16538.335.83437.067114.189139469840.9523627192.2623627197.9310.192362719TT6.3-30.728369.11120674942.1484910673430.667006453863971631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:06FORECAST2024120-16538.04836.0537.049115.704396330260.9858273042.2958273047.9110.205827304TT6.048-31.95228369.9900658315542.8094772152310.658376462013211631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:06FORECAST2024120-16538.62436.537.562114.894581094850.4397640171.4197640178.149.559764017TT6.624-33.37628369.520788421542.4559361915270.677973044698251631141210WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:04FORECAST2024120-16539.236.91438.057114.311930854160.3716537441.4616537448.089.541653744TT7.2-32.828369.1825525856942.2019704237360.697087198710171631141210WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2024120-16539.50635.79837.652115.5900690940.3940947011.4640947018.039.494094701TT7.506-33.49428369.923873186442.7595260611360.707030693963741641141212WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:05FORECAST2024120-16540.0134.19637.103114.699176614140.582677481.782677487.939.71267748TT8.01-33.9928369.4074094313242.3707256969330.723069842435871641151215WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:04FORECAST2024120-16540.3734.89837.634118.105178927170.5165357121.4365357128.049.476535712TT8.37-33.6328371.3756289616443.8613851077060.734257151059431641141212WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:07FORECAST2024120-16540.58634.59237.589117.628781147720.4618112731.3018112738.229.521811273TT8.586-32.41428371.1013571570843.6522003246530.740857942819761641141212WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:07FORECAST2024120-16541.28835.25838.273116.808889525170.2503938361.3303938367.999.320393836TT9.288-31.71228370.6285512324743.2927094957880.761711094457991641141212WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:04FORECAST2024120-16541.935.83438.867115.8870730275301.157.838.98TT9.9-30.128370.0957912399142.8893179866020.77911485541371641141212WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:04FORECAST2024120-16540.7335.85238.291114.6460811357501.067.788.84TT8.73-28.2728369.3765922678842.347578766790.745210967311071641141212WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2024120-16540.94634.75437.85115.4255937361901.047.728.76TT8.946-34.05428369.8286122935642.6876871546170.751668114285691641141212WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:05FORECAST2024120-16540.98235.0638.021119.777515065150.3259844282.1659844287.599.755984428TT8.982-28.01828372.3358034603144.5974573082610.752735772792231641151215WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:05FORECAST2024120-16540.26233.49436.878124.114434918370.3129922952.3129922957.529.832992295TT8.262-40.73828374.8069325280246.5189506342040.730925124736851641151215WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:07FORECAST2024120-16538.85834.3436.599118.524095484610.3570868071.6070868077.649.247086807TT6.858-40.14228371.6165335884844.0455135107010.685798835244981631151212.5WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:04FORECAST2024120-16537.6732.46835.069124.353284020470.2141733441.0441733447.638.674173344TT5.67-43.3328374.9422368511546.625298470420.645276107062951631141210WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:04FORECAST2024120-16537.11232.30634.709122.693577041490.0240157610.2740157617.828.094015761TT5.112-50.88828374.0003397180545.8874394947420.62562363637939163112125WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:04FORECAST2024120-16537.18433.31435.249124.870705022510.0322834820.3222834827.968.282283482TT5.184-51.81628375.2350664776546.8558673002310.62817911246911163112125WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:04FORECAST2024120-16537.5833.13435.357127.8705973629901.427.368.78TT5.58-46.4228376.9252647800148.1976587686210.642130791322041631141210WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:07FORECAST2024120-16537.79633.56635.681120.7663396835701.347.168.5TT5.796-40.20428372.9016229163445.0339640616710.649662928225391631141210WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:07FORECAST2024120-16536.80631.83834.322122.2073460586201.87.59.3TT4.806-33.19428373.7236468338945.6717750389170.614702456070781631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:05FORECAST2024120-16537.36431.29834.331123.913719739430.1027559612.0627559617.099.152755961TT5.364-41.63628374.6931669917146.4296240828910.634542933375771631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:05FORECAST2024120-16537.20232.41434.808129.740263912450.1039370642.0639370646.98.963937064TT5.202-42.79828377.9721755869649.0382098122160.628817105421221631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2024120-16536.28430.39833.341120.572456966230.5307089482.1607089486.778.930708948TT4.284-36.71628372.7907924549544.9483017806820.595865083864311631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:05FORECAST2024120-16534.89829.58832.243125.312909982850.1807087592.5307087596.79.230708759TT2.898-39.10228375.4850234622347.0531209450320.544873936825461631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:07FORECAST2024120-16538.91230.0234.466122.698993969690.1972442012.3372442016.648.977244201TT6.912-26.08828374.0034203317545.889843415930.687593163324981631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:08FORECAST2024120-16541.32430.235.762133.753791422560.795276024.165276027.0211.18527602TT9.324-35.67628380.20280971450.8535673087570.762755173979831641151215WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:06FORECAST2024120-16537.05831.33434.196120.739495157270.1641733172.9741733176.49.374173317TT5.058-43.94228372.8862808571845.0221013017670.623703395410131631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:05FORECAST2024120-16534.08831.29832.693118.61212724710.1622048122.8822048126.219.092204812TT2.088-52.91228371.6671250683544.084228332170.514670883581561631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:05FORECAST2024120-16533.45830.68632.072116.851465081180.1503937822.2603937825.968.220393782TT1.458-47.54228370.6531274726643.31136098210.491112311914131621151210WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:04FORECAST2024120-16537.8533.29635.573128.74825728610.2661418763.3261418767.2110.536141876TT5.85-33.1528377.4173254111948.591822916270.65153694378931631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:08FORECAST2024120-16537.8533.29635.573124.033188842130.2661418763.3761418767.1710.546141876TT5.85-29.1528374.7608891689346.4827881369360.65153694378931631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:08FORECAST2024120-16538.87638.26438.57124.412452307210.0850394163.9550394167.2811.235039416TT6.876-12.12428374.9757420866946.6516516287230.686397435041971631151212.5WETL