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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 11, 2024

[ Saturday, August 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, August 12, 2024 ]

DAY 316 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/12/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 534

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 223
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-12 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243163000001.771.77FF-32534223452.15774396071 01.4311302143355E-1016 12415217.5DRYL
2024-08-12 00:00:01FORECAST20243163061.75446.86854.3110001.771.77FF29.754595.754224452.7105136061700.373648310102991622415220DRYL
2024-08-11 12:00:01FORECAST20243163061.50246.7654.1310001.771.77FF29.502595.502224452.7105136061700.364445698196491622415220DRYL
2024-08-11 08:00:01FORECAST20243163061.80846.56254.1850001.771.77FF29.808595.808224452.7105136061700.375629909939121622415220DRYL
2024-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20243163062.67246.99454.8330001.771.77FF30.672596.672224452.7105136061700.407748467032451622415220DRYL
2024-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20243163062.88846.6754.77900.0011811030.0011811031.771.771181103FF30.888592.888223452.1577439607100.415885338027511622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20243163063.0547.67855.36400.0015748040.0015748041.771.771574804FF31.05593.05223452.1577439607100.422011944127381622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 16:00:01FORECAST20243163063.28446.92255.1030001.771.77FF31.284593.284223452.1577439607100.430894524024031622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20243163062.40247.69655.04900.0003937010.0003937011.771.770393701FF30.402592.402223452.1577439607100.397633447996671622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 08:00:01FORECAST20243163063.33848.48855.9130001.771.77FF31.338593.338223452.1577439607100.432949495101231622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 04:00:03FORECAST20243163063.26648.6555.9580001.771.77FF31.266593.266223452.1577439607100.430209946332441622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 00:00:01FORECAST20243163063.6847.78655.733000.041.771.81FF31.68590.68223452.1577439607100.446004189481371622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 20:00:01FORECAST20243163063.51847.4855.499000.011.771.78FF31.518589.518223452.1577439607100.439812197052751622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243163063.71647.4855.598000.021.771.79FF31.716589.716223452.1577439607100.447382032521331622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243163064.09447.80455.949000.031.771.8FF32.094590.094223452.1577439607100.461884583778521622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243163063.89648.41656.156000.041.771.81FF31.896589.896223452.1577439607100.454280447193971622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 04:00:03FORECAST20243163064.99448.66856.831000.021.771.79FF32.994592.994223452.1577439607100.496583282239451622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20243163064.18448.54256.36300.0003937010.0303937011.771.800393701FF32.184588.184223452.1577439607100.465345790342251622415220DRYL
2024-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243163064.34648.16456.25500.0011811030.0211811031.771.791181103FF32.346590.346223452.1577439607100.471582398227611622415220DRYL
2024-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243163064.07648.39856.23700.0011811030.0211811031.771.791181103FF32.076591.076223452.1577439607100.461192680234131622415220DRYL
2024-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243163064.5848.54256.561000.031.771.8FF32.58592.58223452.1577439607100.480602748151151622415220DRYL
2024-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243163064.23848.66856.453000.041.771.81FF32.238592.238223452.1577439607100.467423790312471622415220DRYL
2024-08-08 04:00:04FORECAST20243163063.93248.41656.174000.011.771.78FF31.932590.932223452.1577439607100.455661854547431622415220DRYL
2024-08-08 00:00:03FORECAST20243163065.42650.03657.731000.021.771.79FF33.426594.426223452.1577439607100.513264073712951632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243163064.74249.8257.281000.041.771.81FF32.742591.742223452.1577439607100.486853708473411622415220DRYL
2024-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20243163063.89649.33456.615000.031.771.8FF31.896589.896223452.1577439607100.454280447193971622415220DRYL
2024-08-07 12:00:03FORECAST20243163062.67249.155.88600.007874020.107874021.771.87787402FF30.672583.672223452.1577439607100.407748467032451622425240DRYM
2024-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243163063.62648.72256.17400.0106299270.0606299271.771.830629927FF31.626588.626223452.1577439607100.443938651960971622415220DRYL
2024-08-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243163063.548.00255.75100.0106299270.0606299271.771.830629927FF31.5585.5223452.1577439607100.439125077317381622415220DRYL
2024-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20243163062.47448.5655.51700.0098425250.0998425251.771.869842525FF30.474588.474223452.1577439607100.400324369034891622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 20:00:03FORECAST20243163062.7848.77655.77800.0062992160.0862992161.771.856299216FF30.78584.78223452.1577439607100.411812163314991622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243163061.98847.85854.92300.0062992160.0862992161.771.856299216FF29.988581.988223452.1577439607100.382258692570031622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20243163060.4448.14654.29300.0165354420.1465354421.771.916535442FF28.44580.44223452.1577439607100.326568840261911622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243163062.22249.06455.64300.0578740470.1578740471.771.927874047FF30.222584.222223452.1577439607100.39092767720421622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 04:00:04FORECAST20243163061.75449.67655.71500.0594488510.1494488511.771.919448851FF29.754582.754223452.1577439607100.373648310102991622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243163063.37450.10856.74100.0464567180.1464567181.771.916456718FF31.374585.374223452.1577439607100.434320487304581622425240DRYM
2024-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20243163063.91449.20856.56100.0468504190.1668504191.771.936850419FF31.914585.914223452.1577439607100.454971082808311622425240DRYM
2024-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243163065.4848.41656.94800.0011811030.0611811031.771.831181103FF33.48589.48223452.1577439607100.515348140075191632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243163065.28247.35456.31800.0027559070.0527559071.771.822755907FF33.282584.282223452.1577439607100.507704946705541632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20243163064.23847.71455.97600.007874020.047874021.771.81787402FF32.238582.238223452.1577439607100.467423790312471622415220DRYL
2024-08-05 04:00:04FORECAST20243163064.23848.2956.26400.0066929170.0466929171.771.816692917FF32.238586.238223452.1577439607100.467423790312471622415220DRYL
2024-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243163061.28648.68654.98600.0153543390.0253543391.771.795354339FF29.286575.286223452.1577439607100.356619203472571622415220DRYL
2024-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243163062.7849.04655.91300.0129921330.0329921331.771.802992133FF30.78585.78223452.1577439607100.411812163314991622415220DRYL
2024-08-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243163066.99252.05259.52200.0023622060.0123622061.771.782362206FF34.992594.992223452.1577439607100.573325610343411632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243163067.40652.41259.909000.011.781.79FF35.406588.406223452.1577439607100.588980696284821632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243163066.66851.92659.297000.011.781.79FF34.668592.668223452.1577439607100.560991392213111632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 04:00:06FORECAST20243163068.66651.5360.098000.011.771.78FF36.666586.666223452.1577439607100.635665274190221632415145DRYM
2024-08-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243163069.0851.860.44000.021.781.8FF37.08581.08223452.1577439607100.650611905023581632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243163067.89251.78259.8370001.771.77FF35.892581.892223452.1577439607100.607177467288571632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243163067.74851.859.7740001.771.77FF35.748582.748223452.1577439607100.601808265752621632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243163068.64849.24458.946000.011.781.79FF36.648591.648223452.1577439607100.635010523139641632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243163069.29650.1859.7380001.781.78FF37.296594.296223452.1577439607100.65832016948691632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243163069.51252.91661.2140001.781.78FF37.512591.512223452.1577439607100.665963012996141632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243163072.08653.20462.6450001.771.77FF40.086600.086223452.1577439607100.751109666938961642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243163073.00454.82463.9140001.771.77FF41.004602.004223452.1577439607100.77842100721642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243163068.88251.47660.179000.011.771.78FF36.882589.882223452.1577439607100.643490943534111632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243163068.12650.55859.34200.0015748040.0015748041.781.781574804FF36.126588.126223452.1577439607100.615858674098341632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 08:00:04FORECAST20243163069.2651.63860.449000.051.791.84FF37.26590.26223452.1577439607100.657039926349791632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243163068.55851.27859.918000.021.781.8FF36.558599.558223452.1577439607100.631730897075391632515150DRYMH
2024-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243163057.90250.82854.3650001.771.77FF25.902579.902223452.1577439607100.243490612503411612415217.5DRYL
2024-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243163052.98849.62251.30500.0125984320.0725984321.771.842598432FF20.988574.988223452.1577439607100.120777019862671612415217.5DRYL
2024-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20243163052.98849.62251.30500.0125984320.0725984321.771.842598432FF20.988577.988223452.1577439607100.120777019862671612415217.5DRYL
2024-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243163057.36252.71855.040001.791.79FF25.362596.362223452.1577439607100.227409956519481612415217.5DRYL
2024-08-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243163055.90450.9953.4470001.791.79FF23.904587.904223452.1577439607100.187110585440141612415217.5DRYL
2024-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243163054.80653.0653.9330001.791.79FF22.806587.806223452.1577439607100.15988063417711612415217.5DRYL