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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 10, 2024

[ Friday, August 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 11, 2024 ]

DAY 315 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/11/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.657
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 596

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 222
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243152969.4599854.3599661.909970001.771.77FF37.45998596.45998222451.60286979454 00.6574525573546816 32415145DRYM
2024-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20243152965.33650.88258.10900.0031496080.0031496081.771.773149608FF33.336592.336223452.1577439607100.479000549334121622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20243152965.44450.82858.13600.0011811030.0011811031.771.771181103FF33.444592.444223452.1577439607100.483782208685251622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 08:00:01FORECAST20243152965.2150.70257.9560001.771.77FF33.21592.21223452.1577439607100.473425812452391622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 04:00:03FORECAST20243152965.350.79258.04600.0011811030.0011811031.771.771181103FF33.3592.3223452.1577439607100.477407300212931622415220DRYL
2024-08-10 00:00:01FORECAST20243152966.34450.1858.26200.0208661530.0408661531.771.810866153FF34.344589.344222451.6028697945400.523654666864231632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-09 20:00:01FORECAST20243152966.07449.9157.99200.0114173290.0114173291.771.781417329FF34.074588.074222451.6028697945400.511699625300291632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243152965.58849.94657.76700.0153543390.0153543391.771.785354339FF33.588587.588222451.6028697945400.490161265618641622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243152965.82252.1785900.0334645850.0334645851.771.803464585FF33.822587.822222451.6028697945400.500531877244591632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243152965.60652.8859.24300.0381889970.0381889971.771.808188997FF33.606587.606222451.6028697945400.490958858226071622415220DRYL
2024-08-09 04:00:02FORECAST20243152966.86653.13259.99900.0208661530.0208661531.771.790866153FF34.866589.866222451.6028697945400.546698057426991632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-09 00:00:01FORECAST20243152966.2952.5259.40500.0307086780.0307086781.771.800708678FF34.29586.29222451.6028697945400.521265016179341632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243152967.152.57459.83700.023622060.023622061.771.79362206FF35.1588.1222451.6028697945400.556981682884681632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243152966.86652.41259.63900.0169291430.0169291431.771.786929143FF34.866588.866222451.6028697945400.546698057426991632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243152967.35252.62859.9900.0303149770.0303149771.771.800314977FF35.352590.352222451.6028697945400.568013396159971632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243152967.47852.80860.14300.0295275750.0395275751.771.809527575FF35.478590.478222451.6028697945400.573509983365821632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-08 04:00:04FORECAST20243152967.26252.91660.08900.0129921330.0129921331.771.782992133FF35.262589.262222451.6028697945400.564079121946041632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243152968.32454.0561.18700.0141732360.0241732361.771.794173236FF36.324591.324222451.6028697945400.609996414785851632415145DRYM
2024-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243152967.85653.76260.80900.019685050.039685051.771.80968505FF35.856588.856222451.6028697945400.58991018456231632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-07 16:00:01FORECAST20243152966.68652.50259.59400.031496080.031496081.771.80149608FF34.686587.686222451.6028697945400.53876584206261632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243152964.9452.44858.69400.070866180.100866181.771.87086618FF32.94582.94222451.6028697945400.461498848699461622425240DRYM
2024-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243152965.55252.7959.17100.023622060.053622061.771.82362206FF33.552586.552222451.6028697945400.488566201611521622415220DRYL
2024-08-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243152965.37252.759.03600.0259842660.0459842661.771.815984266FF33.372584.372222451.6028697945400.480594134073511622415220DRYL
2024-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20243152965.40851.9858.69400.0555118410.0855118411.771.855511841FF33.408588.408222451.6028697945400.482188029004441622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243152964.16650.82857.49700.0515748310.0815748311.771.851574831FF32.166584.166222451.6028697945400.427535919630721622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243152963.21250.05456.63300.0519685320.0819685321.771.851968532FF31.212582.212222451.6028697945400.386427568542561622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20243152963.0550.0956.5700.1051181670.1251181671.771.895118167FF31.05582.05222451.6028697945400.379558371067151622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243152964.9450.5457.7400.0877953230.0977953231.771.867795323FF32.94583.94222451.6028697945400.461498848699461622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 04:00:04FORECAST20243152963.0550.6356.8400.0744094890.0944094891.771.864409489FF31.05583.05222451.6028697945400.379558371067151622425240DRYM
2024-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243152964.88650.73857.81200.0716535820.1016535821.771.871653582FF32.886583.886222451.6028697945400.459117259791131622425240DRYM
2024-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20243152965.46250.46857.96500.0716535820.1216535821.771.891653582FF33.462584.462222451.6028697945400.484579397352561622425240DRYM
2024-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243152965.98451.47658.7300.0192913490.0592913491.771.829291349FF33.984585.984222451.6028697945400.507711741998141632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243152963.8650.79257.32600.007874020.047874021.771.81787402FF31.86580.86222451.6028697945400.414241272170321622415220DRYL
2024-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20243152963.35651.27857.31700.0094488240.0394488241.771.809448824FF31.356580.356222451.6028697945400.392563612406581622415220DRYL
2024-08-05 04:00:04FORECAST20243152963.9551.92657.93800.0094488240.0394488241.771.809448824FF31.95583.95222451.6028697945400.418141992090121622415220DRYL
2024-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243152964.97651.99858.48700.0133858340.0133858341.771.783385834FF32.976575.976222451.6028697945400.463087347344791622415220DRYL
2024-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243152965.87651.81858.84700.0177165450.0177165451.771.787716545FF33.876584.876222451.6028697945400.502925299497061632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243152967.87452.84460.35900.0145669370.0145669371.771.784566937FF35.874589.874222451.6028697945400.590687477229551632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243152965.78653.43859.61200.011811030.021811031.771.79181103FF33.786582.786222451.6028697945400.498936246456191622415220DRYL
2024-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243152965.89453.27659.58500.0125984320.0225984321.771.792598432FF33.894587.894222451.6028697945400.503723087770671632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 04:00:06FORECAST20243152964.70652.3458.523000.011.771.78FF32.706579.706222451.6028697945400.451189695458321622415220DRYL
2024-08-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243152965.08449.80257.443000.021.781.8FF33.084574.084222451.6028697945400.467856275163561622415220DRYL
2024-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243152965.44451.8958.6670001.771.77FF33.444576.444222451.6028697945400.483782208685251622415220DRYL
2024-08-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243152965.40851.81858.6130001.771.77FF33.408577.408222451.6028697945400.482188029004441622415220DRYL
2024-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243152967.87451.45859.66600.0149606380.0149606381.781.794960638FF35.874584.874222451.6028697945400.590687477229551632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243152968.55851.54860.05300.0027559070.0027559071.781.782755907FF36.558586.558222451.6028697945400.619934070884771632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243152968.50452.03460.2690001.781.78FF36.504583.504222451.6028697945400.617647515191951632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243152970.41252.1661.28600.0023622060.0023622061.771.772362206FF38.412590.412222451.6028697945400.695428061585151632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243152971.04252.75461.89800.0043307110.0043307111.771.774330711FF39.042591.042222451.6028697945400.719479349799931642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243152967.60449.96458.78400.0043307110.0143307111.771.784330711FF35.604582.604222451.6028697945400.578992331764941632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243152966.25449.06457.659000.011.771.78FF34.254582.254222451.6028697945400.5196714856111632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 08:00:04FORECAST20243152965.6649.89257.776000.071.771.84FF33.66582.66222451.6028697945400.493351840206571622415220DRYL
2024-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243152968.75651.87260.31400.0011811030.0311811031.771.801181103FF36.756592.756222451.6028697945400.628281757218071632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243152968.59451.24259.9180001.771.77FF36.594583.594222451.6028697945400.621456122054531632415145DRYM
2024-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243152967.69451.7159.70200.059055150.059055151.771.82905515FF35.694583.694222451.6028697945400.582899004084661632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243152968.82851.42260.12500.059055150.059055151.771.82905515FF36.828586.828222451.6028697945400.631302625866741632415145DRYM
2024-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243152976.76651.78264.2740001.791.79FF44.766600.766222451.6028697945400.888316903408241652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243152970.98853.20462.0960001.791.79FF38.988593.988222451.6028697945400.717454246678111642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243152972.550.25261.3760001.791.79FF40.5594.5222451.6028697945400.771352769013271642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 00:00:04FORECAST20243152956.31852.2554.2840001.761.76FF24.318584.318222451.6028697945400.145762277403771612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243152956.87653.04254.9590001.761.76FF24.876592.876222451.6028697945400.16041887969381612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-31 16:00:03FORECAST20243152962.02452.28657.1550001.761.76FF30.024615.024222451.6028697945400.337011533321911622515222.5DRYL
2024-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243152955.79650.6353.21300.0921260340.1421260341.761.902126034FF23.796615.796222451.6028697945400.132889515857581612525240DRYM
2024-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243152955.449.76652.583000.041.761.8FF23.4591.4222451.6028697945400.123660123004371612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-31 04:00:06FORECAST20243152953.45651.87252.664000.041.781.82FF21.456598.456222451.6028697945400.0848415939624661612415217.5DRYL