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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 5, 2023

[ Monday, September 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 6, 2023 ]

DAY 340 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/06/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.129
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 526

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 247
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-06 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233405547.6299438.2142.9199700.00999999999999090.339999999999991.351.69FF15.62994525.62994247464.86134940078 00.1294746662689216 13425240DRYM
2023-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20233405552.44838.1245.284000.331.351.68FF20.448530.448248465.3659369495300.238141219178471613425240DRYM
2023-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20233405552.53838.31845.428000.331.351.68FF20.538530.538248465.3659369495300.240555799812881613425240DRYM
2023-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20233405552.73637.70645.221000.331.351.68FF20.736530.736248465.3659369495300.245914403079431613425240DRYM
2023-09-05 04:00:05FORECAST20233405553.00637.88645.446000.331.351.68FF21.006531.006248465.3659369495300.253323449702711623425245DRYM
2023-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20233405552.44838.67845.563000.121.351.47FF20.448533.448247464.8613494007800.238141219178471613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20233405552.89838.8445.869000.121.351.47FF20.898532.898247464.8613494007800.250345841384421623425245DRYM
2023-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20233405551.60236.37443.988000.121.351.47FF19.602531.602247464.8613494007800.216104384053111613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20233405552.10637.34644.726000.121.351.47FF20.106532.106247464.8613494007800.229087883272711613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20233405552.21438.345.257000.121.351.47FF20.214533.214247464.8613494007800.23192582215161613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20233405553.45639.0246.238000.121.351.47FF21.456537.456247464.8613494007800.26592744489371623425245DRYM
2023-09-04 00:00:09FORECAST20233405552.75438.31845.536000.111.351.46FF20.754532.754247464.8613494007800.246404700561421613425240DRYM
2023-09-03 20:00:06FORECAST20233405553.16837.9445.554000.081.351.43FF21.168534.168247464.8613494007800.25782447908831623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20233405553.16837.9445.554000.081.351.43FF21.168534.168247464.8613494007800.25782447908831623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20233405553.72639.68646.706000.071.351.42FF21.726534.726247464.8613494007800.273639284111691623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20233405554.37439.14646.76000.041.351.39FF22.374536.374247464.8613494007800.292586811944241623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20233405553.83440.1947.012000.031.351.38FF21.834535.834247464.8613494007800.276754669944461623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233405552.3438.28245.311000.081.351.43FF20.34526.34247464.8613494007800.235261310991613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20233405552.0737.8544.96000.091.351.44FF20.07525.07247464.8613494007800.228146242907781613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20233405552.91639.68646.301000.011.351.36FF20.916529.916247464.8613494007800.250840819518351623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20233405553.5139.93846.7240001.351.35FF21.51530.51247464.8613494007800.267460971277511623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20233405553.18639.39846.2920001.351.35FF21.186531.186247464.8613494007800.258327139508011623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20233405552.8839.3846.130001.351.35FF20.88532.88247464.8613494007800.249851380750771623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233405553.88840.31647.102000.121.351.47FF21.888531.888247464.8613494007800.278318844718541623425245DRYM
2023-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20233405552.62838.28245.455000.071.351.42FF20.628528.628247464.8613494007800.242983627873681613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233405551.9838.8445.41000.021.351.37FF19.98525.98247464.8613494007800.225801672713721613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233405554.53638.89446.7150001.351.35FF22.536529.536247464.8613494007800.297417126988871623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20233405553.83437.79645.815000.021.371.39FF21.834527.834247464.8613494007800.276754669944461623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20233405554.3238.62446.472000.031.351.38FF22.32527.32247464.8613494007800.290984837201921623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20233405558.22640.87449.55000.121.081.2FF26.226534.226247464.8613494007800.415671577059191623425245DRYM
2023-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233405557.81240.9149.361000.131.041.17FF25.812532.812247464.8613494007800.401775727498641623425245DRYM
2023-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233405558.9144.2451.575000.3411.34FF26.91529.91247464.8613494007800.438854533070371623425245DRYM
2023-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20233405556.64241.1848.911000.480.981.46FF24.642525.642247464.8613494007800.363223672968871623425245DRYM
2023-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20233405556.33639.75848.047000.451.011.46FF24.336520.336247464.8613494007800.353347891176371623425245DRYM
2023-08-31 04:00:05FORECAST20233405552.68237.88645.284000.61.091.69FF20.682512.682247464.8613494007800.24444665255621613435260DRYH
2023-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20233405550.64835.11442.88100.051181130.501181130.811.31118113FF18.648513.648247464.8613494007800.192728596965131613435260DRYH
2023-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20233405551.5336.66244.09600.051181130.481181130.791.27118113FF19.53523.53247464.8613494007800.214284964739641613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20233405550.3635.58242.97100.043307110.373307111.161.53330711FF18.36514.36247464.8613494007800.185986575500481613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233405551.04436.55443.79900.007874020.207874021.141.34787402FF19.044521.044247464.8613494007800.202238570233451613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233405549.22637.14843.18700.023622060.223622061.21.42362206FF17.226514.226247464.8613494007800.160883469234531613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 04:00:07FORECAST20233405551.06237.45444.25800.051181130.221181131.361.58118113FF19.062514.062247464.8613494007800.202677394802081613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233405552.05238.94845.5000.180.981.16FF20.052520.052247464.8613494007800.227676238640861613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 16:00:04FORECAST20233405553.43840.69447.066000.020.760.78FF21.438519.438247464.8613494007800.265417259957941623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20233405553.74440.53247.138000.140.790.93FF21.744514.744247464.8613494007800.27415730934691623425245DRYM
2023-08-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233405554.06841.57647.822000.111.211.32FF22.068519.068247464.8613494007800.283563630879791623425245DRYM
2023-08-29 04:00:09FORECAST20233405553.94236.78845.365000.130.921.05FF21.942510.942247464.8613494007800.279887311305171623425245DRYM
2023-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20233405555.38238.37246.87700.03937010.50937010.751.2593701FF23.382507.382247464.8613494007800.323211905533371623435267.5DRYH
2023-08-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233405554.03237.59845.81500.051181130.541181130.671.21118113FF22.032506.032247464.8613494007800.282510898747671623435267.5DRYH
2023-08-28 16:00:04FORECAST20233405548.8335.67242.25100.070866180.640866180.861.50086618FF16.83487.83247464.8613494007800.152663049166461613335252.5DRYMH
2023-08-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233405551.72836.2343.979000.131.391.52FF19.728507.728247464.8613494007800.219309763160661613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233405552.19639.12845.66200.047244120.297244121.561.85724412FF20.196511.196247464.8613494007800.231451479343431613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233405552.19639.12845.66200.047244120.297244121.561.85724412FF20.196511.196247464.8613494007800.231451479343431613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 00:00:05FORECAST20233405552.19639.12845.66200.047244120.297244121.561.85724412FF20.196508.196247464.8613494007800.231451479343431613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 20:00:04FORECAST20233405552.19639.12845.66200.047244120.297244121.561.85724412FF20.196509.196247464.8613494007800.231451479343431613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233405551.8940.38846.13900.11811030.30811031.571.8781103FF19.89517.89247464.8613494007800.223470767267531613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233405553.34838.7546.04900.129921330.129921330.650.77992133FF21.348528.348247464.8613494007800.262873797828131623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 08:00:04FORECAST20233405552.46638.49845.48200.129921330.129921330.680.80992133FF20.466524.466247464.8613494007800.238623072001351613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 04:00:09FORECAST20233405552.23238.91245.572000.220.420.64FF20.232532.232247464.8613494007800.232400704931251613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 00:00:04FORECAST20233405542.00833.47637.742000.220.480.7FF10.008506.008247464.8613494007800.0530767782253161613425240DRYM
2023-08-26 20:00:04FORECAST20233405541.93634.75438.345000.230.470.7FF9.936509.936247464.8613494007800.0524050323336071613425240DRYM
2023-08-26 16:35:50FORECAST20233405544.47440.6442.557000.210.320.53FF12.474512.474247464.8613494007800.0804515935940511613425240DRYM
2023-08-26 12:33:27FORECAST20233405542.49439.30840.9010000.640.64FF10.494531.494247464.8613494007800.0577906626544251613415220DRYL
2023-08-26 08:33:03FORECAST20233405542.22438.46240.3430000.580.58FF10.224538.224247464.8613494007800.0551329033606831613415220DRYL
2023-08-26 04:46:02FORECAST20233405542.58441.75642.170000.630.63FF10.584526.584247464.8613494007800.0586985559515681613415220DRYL